2018 New Year’s Briefing - Markit5 Kg 2,5 Kg 7,5 Kg 6,5 Kg 0 Kg Tesla Model S Cathode Type: NCA...
Transcript of 2018 New Year’s Briefing - Markit5 Kg 2,5 Kg 7,5 Kg 6,5 Kg 0 Kg Tesla Model S Cathode Type: NCA...
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
© 2018 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
6-7 February 2018 | Frankfurt, Germany
Christian Müller, Principal Analyst & Manager
0049 (69) 20973 328, [email protected]
2018
New Year’s Briefing
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 2
Performance
Cost
Production Capacity
Raw Material
Availability
Energy Density
Safety
Durability
Price
Recharging
InfrastructureDriving Range
Factors Affecting Our Perception of EV and Battery Technology
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Battery packBattery module
Battery cell
Prismatic
Source: CATL– photo taken by IHS Markit at IAA
2017, Frankfurt, Germany, September 2017
Cylindrical Pouch
Setting the scene - battery pack breakdown
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Expecta
tion
Time
Name Voltage (V) Energy (Wh/kg) Cycle life
Lead acid 2.0 50 500
Ni-MH 1.2 100 1,000
Li-ion 3.6 200 2,000
Li-solid state 4.8 400 +10,000
1891
First commercialization
in electrification
1982
1998
2022?
All figures are simplified to easily compare technologies
Li-solid state
Li-sulfur
Ni-MHLead acid
Mg-ion
Na-air
Li-ionLi-air
Source: IHS Markit
Lithium based battery technology continues to offer the highest potential
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More energy and power, and safer
Li-ion Battery System Technology Roadmap
5
202520202017
Cathode
Anode
Electrolyte
Separator
LFP, LMO, NMC, NCARich Nickel
(High voltage spinell)
Carbon, Graphite
Liquid, Polymer
Polymer mebranes
Silicon Lithium-metal, CNT
Solid state
None
Sulfur, Air
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Electrode Material
NMC seems to offer the most accepted compromise between all requirements
Acronym MaterialCell voltage
Leadingsupplier
NCA Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminum oxide
3.65 V TeslaPanasonic
NMC Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt oxide
3.7 V LGSamsung
LFP Lithium Iron Phosphate 3.2-3.3 V CATLBYDLishen
LTO Lithium Titanate Oxide 2.4 V Toshiba
LMO Lithium Manganese Oxide (original li-ion technology)
4 V AESC
Low cost
Life
SafetyCharge /
discharge rate
Specific energy(kWh/kg)
Characteristics of electrode materials
NCA NMC LFP LMO LTO
6
• Except LTO, these are cathode materials. The anode is usually
graphite.
• NCA is used only by Tesla, on license from Panasonic
• LTO and LMO are loosing significance in the automotive market
• LCO is the original Lithium Ion technology but no longer used
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Major Raw Material use for selected models
Nickel Lithium Cobalt Manganese Aluminium
17,5 Kg 3,2 Kg 4,3 Kg 0,5 Kg 0,5 Kg
Nickel Lithium Cobalt Manganese Aluminium
7,5 Kg 2,5 Kg 7,5 Kg 6,5 Kg 0 Kg
Tesla Model S
Cathode Type: NCA
Chevrolet Bolt
Cathode Type: NMC
Tons of Material used per year
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Major Raw Material Deposits for BatteriesWhich countries are OEMs exposing themselves to?
Lithium
Cobalt
Nickel
Manganese
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Securing raw material suppliesWill Material Hedging Solve this Problem?
“Manufacturers such as electric vehicle
makers should be concerned that the supply
of one of the key mineral components, or the
processing and refining infrastructure, could
become too centralised in a single country.
Without diverse source options, the
possibility of supply restriction becomes
more likely.”
Ben McLellan, senior research fellow at Kyoto University
“The procurement project is one of the
largest in the history of the automotive
industry, with a total order volume of over 50
billion euros,” it said in a statement. “That will
meet the Group’s needs for the first wave of
e-mobility.”
Volkswagen Statement
“They want a fixed price, which won’t work for
people who need security and they want to
reserve the right to not take metal they don’t
need,” another cobalt source said. “They want
producers to take all the risks ... they want an
option at low prices, for long maturities at zero
cost.”
Tesla Motors and BMW is also said
to be looking for supplies of cobalt,
according to people in the market,
though no formal tenders have been
issued.
“A secure and sustainable
supply of raw materials for the
Li-ion [lithium ion] battery will
be the key factor to become e-
mobility market leader,”
Volkswagen Statement
Cobalt Trader
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Cylindrical Prismatic Pouch
Electrodes rolled/winded flat winded stacked
Packaging stainless steel can aluminium (for automotive) casing,
welded shut.
flexible aluminium+plastic foil (may swell
during charge/discharge).
Pros & Cons + self-supporting mechanical structure
- lower energy density (kWh/cm³)
+ energy density, specific energy
- thermal management
- cost
+ high specific energy (kWh/kg)
+ cost
- needs a rigid support from the module.
Leading auto
suppliers
Tesla & Panasonic BYD, Samsung SDI,
CATL
LG
SK Innovation
Often used for NCA (since Panasonic is the main manufacturer) high voltage LFP and low voltage
all chemistries
Lithium polymer with solid electrolyte
Form factor standardized (somehwat)• 18650: Ø18x65 mm, most widespread: laptops, ebikes,
previously used Tesla
• 26650: often used for LFP
• 2170(0): Ø21x70 mm, new Tesla format
no standard, but usually fixed to a few sizes for a given
supplier
no standard, usually custom size
Cell Technology optionsPouch cells gaining ground thanks to Korean manufacturers
10
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
GW
h
Unknown Cylinder Pouch Prismatic
Capacity demand by cell type
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Battery Demand by Cell Type
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Mil
lio
n u
nit
s (
pa
ck
)
Unknown Cylinder Pouch Prismatic
Vehicle production volume
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
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Profiles of major battery manufacturersA diverse supply base
Manufacturer Tesla Panasonic LG Chem Samsung SDI CATL Lishen Guoxan
High Tech
BYD OptimumNano
Cells NCA
cylindrical
LMO
cylindrical
NCM
pouch
NCM
prismatic
LFP and NCM
prismatic
LFP
cylindrical &
prismatic
LFP & NMC LFP
prismatic &
pouch
LFP
cylindrical
Core
business
EV consumer and
pro appliances
diversified diversified batteries batteries electrical
equipment
EV batteries
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GWh
2016 2020
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Mapping the Announced Major Battery Cell Manufacturing Locations
13
1
38
0
20
40
60
2016 2020
GWh North America
Others
LG Chemical
Panasonic
0
23
0
20
40
60
2016 2020
GWh Europe
Others
Samsung SDI
LG Chemical
SK Innovation
Terra E
Northvolt
68
334
0
100
200
300
400
2016 2020
GWh China
Others
Tianjin Lishen
Guoxuan
OptimumNano
30
54
0
20
40
60
2016 2020
GWh Japan, Korea
Others
Samsung SDI
LG Chemical
AESC
Panasonic
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CellCell
supplier
Source: IHS Markit
Module Pack Electric Vehicle OEM
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles,
Geely, Guangzhou
Do-Fluoride, Wanxiang A123/Fisker, BYD
Volkswagen, Renault, BMW, Tesla,
General Motors, Daimler, Hyundai (Browns battery, Accumotive, Mobis)
Samsung SDI, SK Innovation, LG Chemical, Tianjin Lishen, Optimumnano,
Farasis, Guoxuan, Sinopoly, Electrovaya, Chuangyuan
Lifan, (Nissan)
PEVE, AESC, LEJ, BEJ, Pride Power,
HLGP, BESK, Shanghai Jiexin, Wuhu Qida
Industry Disruptors: Dyson, Hyperdrive
Innovation, Webasto
Battery supply chain in automotive industry
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Key Take Aways For Suppliers
• Carmakers are still very much in experimental
mode (large scale but experimental) about batteries
and EVs.
• Battery pack assembly done more in house
• Raw material availability concentrated around few
difficult locations
• Battery cell production capacity increase needed to
sustain projected growth rates
15
now
NimH Li+ LiS?
Japan S. Korea
China
Evolution of automotive battery landscape
IHS Markit Customer Care
Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273)
Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300
Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600
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