2018 Midterm Elections: Battle for House, Senate...Oct 23, 2018 · • GOP currently hold 235...

2018 Midterm Elections:Battle for House, Senate

October 23, 2018

Federal Policy Team

2

Mike Ferguson• Leader, Baker Hostetler’s Federal Policy Team• Former Congressman from New Jersey

Federal Policy Team

3

Mike Ferguson Jim Ellis• CEO of Ellis Insight

2018: Big Questions

4

Will Democrats meet expectations and win House majority, or will GOP defy odds and political history?

Will Republicans leverage favorable electoral map to maintain or even add to current 51-49 Senate majority?

2018: Big Questions

5

For Democrats and Republicans, 2018 elections all about Trump:

• Will Democrats’ anti-Trump sentiment fuel historic turnout?

• Can GOP rally Trump voters to turn out when Trump isn’t on ballot?

• Is ‘Kavanaugh bounce’ for GOP real and can it be sustained?

• Wildcard: What will Trump do or say in next 14 days to affect elections?

2018: Senate elections

6

• Republicans control 51-49

• Because Pence can break ties, Democrats must win two net seats for majority

• GOP defending nine seats; Democrats defending 26 seats

• Trump won 10 states in 2016 where Senate Democrats are seeking re-election in 2018


7

Texas

N.M.Ariz.

Calif.

Ore.

Wash.

Mont. N.D.Minn.(2)*

Wis.Mich.

Maine

Nev.

Idaho

UtahColo.

Wyo.S.D.

Neb.

Kan.

Okla.

La.

Miss.(2)*

Tenn.

Ark.

Iowa

Ill. Ind.Ohio

Pa.

W.Va.Ky.

N.C.

S.C.

Ga.Ala.

Va.

N.Y.

Vt.

Del.

N.J. Conn.

N.H.Mass.R.I.

Md.

Fla.

Mo.

= Democrat held seats

= Republican held seats

= No Senate campaigns


8

Texas

N.M.Ariz.

Calif.

Ore.

Wash.

Mont. N.D.Minn.(2)*

Wis.Mich.

Maine

Nev.

Idaho

UtahColo.

Wyo.S.D.

Neb.

Kan.

Okla.

La.

Miss.(2)*

Tenn.

Ark.

Iowa

Ill. Ind.Ohio

Pa.

W.Va.Ky.

N.C.

S.C.

Ga.Ala.

Va.

N.Y.

Vt.

Del.

N.J. Conn.

N.H.Mass.R.I.

Md.

Fla.

Mo.

= No Senate campaigns = States Trump won in 2016

= Democrat held seats

= Republican held seats


9

North Dakota

Sen. Heidi Heitkamp

Rep. Kevin Cramer

• Heitkamp is Democrats’ most vulnerable Senator – why? Trump defeated Clinton in North Dakota 63-27% in 2016

• Heitkamp voted against tax cuts, repealing Affordable Care Act and Kavanaugh but did vote to confirm Gorsuch

• Cramer held statewide House seat since 2013

Cramer: 56%Heitkamp: 40% Oct. 12-19

Cramer: 53%Heitkamp: 41% Sept. 29- Oct. 2


10

Missouri

• Trump won 57% in 2016 in increasingly Republican Missouri

• McCaskill aggressive campaigner, touts pocketbook issues

• Still, McCaskill voted against tax cuts, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh

Hawley: 47%McCaskill: 46% Oct. 17-18

Sen. Claire McCaskill

Josh Hawley

Hawley: 50%McCaskill: 47% Oct. 11-13

Remington Research

Hawley: 45%McCaskill: 44% Sept. 27-Oct. 7


11

West Virginia

• Trump’s best state – won 69% in 2016

• Manchin’s successful political brand faces toughest test

• Manchin voted against tax cuts and repealing Affordable Care Act but voted for Gorsuch and Kavanaugh

Manchin: 53%Morrisey: 47% Oct. 13-15

Patrick Morrisey

Sen. Joe Manchin




12

Indiana

• Trump won 57% in 2016

• Pence served as governor, House member

• Donnelly voted against tax cuts, repealing Affordable Care Act and Kavanaugh but voted for Gorsuch

Braun: 44%Donnelly: 40% Oct. 14-17

Mike Braun

Sen. Joe Donnelly

Donnelly: 41%Braun: 40% Oct. 13-15

Donnelly: 43%Braun: 41% Sept. 29-Oct. 2


13

Florida

• Trump defeated Clinton narrowly 49-48%

• Nelson elected to House in 1978, Senate in 2000

• Scott two-term governor

• How will Hurricane Michael impact turnout in GOP panhandle?

Gov. Rick Scott

Sen. Bill Nelson

Nelson: 50%Scott: 45% Oct. 16-20

Nelson: 52%Scott: 46% Oct. 18-21

Scott: 51%Nelson: 46% Oct. 14-18


14

Montana

• Trump won 56% in Montana in 2016, but Tester hasn’t been as vulnerable as other Senate Democrats in red states

• Tester voted against tax cuts, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh

• Tester campaigns as ‘third-generation dirt farmer’ while criticizing opponent as ‘Maryland Matt’

Matt Rosendale

Sen. Jon Tester

Tester: 49%Rosendale: 45% Sept. 28-ct. 16-20

Tester: 47%Rosendale: 45% Sept. 10-14


15

Arizona

• Two female House members battling for GOP open seat after Sen. Jeff Flake chose not to seek re-election

• Trump won Arizona in 2016 with 49%

• Arizona is Democrats’ best chance of flipping GOP seat

Rep. KyrstenSinema

Rep. Martha McSally

McSally: 48%Sinema: 46% Oct. 15-19

Sinema: 47%McSally: 44% Oct. 2-4


16

Nevada

• Heller only Republican seeking re-election in state Trump didn’t win in 2016

• Heller first elected in 2012 when Obama won Nevada

• Rosen first-term House member criticized Heller for voting for tax cuts and to repeal Affordable Care Act

Rep. Jacky Rosen

Sen. Dean Heller

Rosen: 48%Heller: 46% Oct. 15-16

Heller: 48%Rosen: 41% Oct. 10-12

Heller: 47%Rosen: 45% Oct. 8-10


17

Tennessee

• Blackburn, House member since 2002, showing signs of pulling away from Bredesen, former two-term governor

• Trump won Tennessee in 2016 with 61 percent

Former Gov. Phil Bredesen

Rep. Marsha Blackburn Blackburn: 54%

Bredesen: 40% Oct. 8-11

Blackburn: 50%Bredesen: 42% Oct. 2-5

Blackburn: 48%Bredesen: 43% Sept. 29-Oct. 2


18

‘Sleeper races’ for Democrats, Republicans

Sen. Bob Menendez

• Indicted on federal corruption charges but charges dropped after hung jury

• ‘Severely admonished’ by Senate Ethics Committee

• Leading narrowly but can’t pull away from former pharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin

Sen. Ted Cruz

• Trump called him ‘Lyin’ Ted’ in 2016, accused Cruz’ father of involvement in JFK assassination

• Now Cruz needs Trump’s help to put away upstart challenge from super-funded House Democrat

2018:House elections

19

• GOP currently hold 235 seats, Democrats 193 seats, 7 vacancies

• Democrats need to gain 23 net seats to win House majority of 218 seats

• 25 Republican-held districts Clinton won in 2016

• 50 Republican open seats, driven by retirements, term limits

• Campaign cash flooding to Democrats:

o 110 Democrats outraised GOP incumbents or nominees in Q3

o More than 60 Democrats raised more than $1 million in Q3

2018:House elections

20

• GOP weighted down by ‘Trump fatigue,’ especially in suburban districts

• These Republicans face massive gender gaps among college-educated and younger women

• Post-Kavanaugh GOP grip on exurban, rural districts tightens

• Some GOP candidates gaining as Trump approvals rise slightly

• But momentum all with Democrats:

o Will Nov. 6 be a tsunami? o Or will combination of anti-Trump/GOP

retirements/Dems’ cash be just enough?

2018: House elections

21

President’s Midterm Party Losses

66% 63% 63% 58% 58% 54% 49% 46% 45% 42% 40% 38%

4 8

-5 -8 -12

-48

-15

-52-63

-26

-12

-31

1998 2002 1986 1990 1970 1974 1978 1994 2010 1982 2014 2006

Clinton Bush Reagan Bush Nixon Ford Carter Clinton Obama Reagan Obama Bush

Presidential job approval at midterm Midterm election House seats gained or lost by president's party


22

Texas

N.M.Ariz.

Calif.

Ore.

Wash.

Mont. N.D.Minn.

Wis.Mich.

Maine

Nev.

Idaho

UtahColo.

Wyo.S.D.

Neb.

Kan.

Okla.

La.

Miss.

Tenn.

Ark.

Iowa

Ill. Ind.Ohio

Pa.

W.Va.Ky.

N.C.

S.C.

Ga.Ala.

Va.

N.Y.

Vt.

Del.

N.J. Conn.

N.H.Mass.R.I.

Md.

Fla.

Mo.

= States with key battleground House campaigns

AlaskaHawaii


23

Republicans can hold House majority but only if…• Trump: No (more) self-inflicted

political wounds

• Trump energizes GOP, gets presidential voters to turn out

• Trump doesn’t (further) alienate suburban women

• GOP builds on Kavanaugh momentum


24

But the math for Republicans is hard…• Republicans poised to win only two

seats held by Democrats

• More than dozen Republican-held seats already likely lost to Democrats

• More than 50 additional GOP-held seats rated toss-up or in jeopardy

• Republicans would need to win overwhelming percentage of these at-risk seats to maintain majority

Questions

The Honorable Mike [email protected]

25

mailto:[email protected]

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bakerlaw.com

These materials have been prepared by Baker & Hostetler LLP for informational purposes only and are not legal advice. The information is not intended to create, and receipt of it does not constitute, a lawyer-client relationship. Readers should not act upon this information without seeking professional counsel. You should consult a lawyer for individual advice regarding your own situation.

2018 Midterm Elections: Battle for House, Senate...Oct 23, 2018 · • GOP currently hold 235...

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