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Transcript of gop report
Republican National Committee
November 14, 2012
Paid for by the Republican National Committee.
310 First Street, SE | Washington, DC 20003 | www.gop.com
Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee. CONFIDENTIAL
Top Battlegrounds vs. 2008
Colorado +18,337
Florida +80,314
Iowa +35,582
Nevada +43,257
New Hampshire +785
North Carolina +186,250
Ohio -123,550
Virginia +24,598
Wisconsin +73,385
+338,958
In the 9 top Presidential battleground states, turnout was up 1%.
In the populous states of NY, NJ, TX, CA, and IL, turnout was down 14%.
Across the remainder of states, turnout was down 4%.
123 million voted, down 8.5 million from 2008, up 1 million from 2004…
Who Voted?
Romney vs. 2008 Obama vs. 2008
Colorado +51,802 -50,086
Florida +116,550 -46,042
Iowa +45,549 -12,511
Nevada +49,595 -4,935
New Hampshire +11,336 -16,297
North Carolina +147,379 +35,737
Ohio -84,041 -242,784
Virginia +64,613 -54,004
Wisconsin +146,352 -63,261
+549,135 -454,183
Million vote swing away from Obama in battlegrounds
What Happened: 2012 vs. 2008
Romney up over 2008, Obama down from 2008…
7 8 9 10 10 11 13 13
81 77 74 72
2000 2004 2008 2012Other Hispanic African American White
Demographics of the Electorate
Demographic change is real.
3 in 10 voters will be minorities in 2016.
28%
Romney Obama Margin
Florida 4,162,174 4,236,032 -73,858 New Hampshire 327,870 368,529 -40,659 Ohio 2,593,779 2,697,260 -103,481 Virginia 1,789,618 1,905,528 -115,910
-333,908
What Happened: 4 States
In the end, less than 334k votes separated Governor Romney from the Presidency.
44% 45% 48% 53%
46% 51% 50% 49%
45% 53%
Just Today (3%) In the Last FewDays (6%)
October (11%) September (9%) Before that (69%)
6
WMR
Obama had an edge among late deciders
-7 +8
BO WMR BO WMR BO WMR BO WMR BO
-1 -5 -7
Data from the 2012 national Exit Poll among 26,565 respondents, conducted November 6, 2012.
What Happened – Late Deciders
What Else Happened – Exit Polls
The ‘Gender Gap’ among whites narrowed toward the end of the campaign. Romney won white men by 27 and white women by 14.
Voters by a 15 point margin blamed President Bush over President Obama for the state of the economy.
Voters preferred a candidate whose policies favored the “middle class”, and 10% more voters felt Obama’s policies favored the middle class.
Obama’s hurricane response provided a bump. 42% said it was the “most important” or “an important” factor in their vote, and Obama won them by more than a 2:1 margin.
2000 2004 2008 2012 Independents +2 -1 -8 +5
Whites +12 +17 +12 +20 African Americans -81 -77 -91 -87
Hispanics -27 -9 -36 -44 Asians -14 -12 -27 -47
Young Voters -2 -9 -34 -23
What Happened - Demographics
Improvement over 2008 & 2004 among whites and independents.
What Happened?
Florida – 238,000 more Hispanic voters participated than in 2008 and Obama got 60% of Hispanics. Obama’s margin of victory was 78,000.
Ohio – Romney won independents by 10, but there were more Democrats. African American turnout increased by 178,000 and Obama got 96% of them. Obama’s margin of victory was 103,000.
Virginia – Romney improved with independents (+11), and white voters (+24), but it was not enough. Obama’s margin of victory was 113,000.
Colorado – 147,000 more young voters participated than in 2008, and Obama increased his share of the Hispanic vote from 61% in 2008 to 75% in 2012. Obama’s margin of victory was 113,000.
RNC Ground Game – Volunteer Activity
Volunteer Phone Dials: 50,000,000 volunteer phone dials in Victory program states. Door-to-Door: 15,000,000 million door-to-door contacts in Victory program states. 120,000 volunteers in 285 offices working to turn out Republicans.
RNC Ground Game - Voter ID
22.5 million data points collected from 5.5 million voters in Battleground states. 8.6 million data points collected by volunteers. 13.9 million data points collected through paid efforts.
RNC Senate Support
Funded the ground game in FL, NV, OH, VA, WI.
Funded the paid walk program in MT & ND.
Funded the direct mail program for Tommy Thompson’s campaign in WI.
Funded paid GOTV phone program in AZ & IN
Funded the mail program in IN.
RNC Senate Support
Funded infrastructure in MT and ND.
Provided infrastructure to help Linda Lingle campaign in HI.
Nearly $4 million direct cash to NRSC from the Romney/RNC JFC.
We’ll conduct a deep dive into what worked what didn’t…
Conduct post-election survey and focus groups to evaluate message and tactics.
Meet with state leaders, donors, and leaders of key coalition groups to collect their analyses.
Meet with 3rd party groups to learn about outside efforts.
Collect after action reports from all managers and 700 field staff.
Solicit feedback from our volunteers and keep them engaged.
Conduct independent reviews of our ground game, data resources, and digital program.
Create a team to take an in-depth look at what Obama did.
Where do we go from here?