AEI’s Critical Threats ProjectUpdate and Assessment

December 6, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1. The battle against ISIS in Sirte may give way to a larger civil conflict in Libya as rival militias grapple for control of the capital, Tripoli.

2. Yemen’s internationally recognized government continues to favor military offensives against al Houthi-Saleh forces to compel surrender over peace talks.

3. Large-scale labor strikes in response to austerity measures risk igniting instability in Tunisia.

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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesPakistani and Indian security forces continue to crack down against Salafi-jihadi militants. Pakistani security forces arrested members of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, and al Qaeda in a series of raids in Karachi. Indian security forces arrested members of the Base Movement, an al Qaeda-inspired Salafi-jihadi group. Outlook: Pakistani and Indian security forces will continue to target Salafi-jihadi organizations and actors.

SecurityPolitical and military tensions remained high between the Indian and Pakistani governments. Cross-border firing between Indian and Pakistani security forces along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir has decreased since the escalation of violence triggered by the September 18 attack on an Indian army base in Uri. Militant attacks in Jammu & Kashmir are increasing, according to local reports.

Outlook: Cross-border firing along the Line of Control may return to prior levels. High-level officials will seek to de-escalate the conflict between militants and state forces.

PoliticalGeneral Qamar Javed Bajwa replaced Raheel Sharif as Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff. Bajwa immediately vowed to address the situation in Kashmir and continue Pakistan’s “war on terror.” Bajwa is seen as a strong proponent of civil-military relations who is less hostile towards India than his immediate predecessors.

Outlook: Bajwa’s appointment may herald a less hawkish stance toward India and increased civil-military cooperation in targeting militant organizations.

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GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

PoliticalThe al Houthi-Saleh Supreme Political Council (SPC)’s formation of an independent government in Sana’a sparked international condemnation and damaged prospects for peace talks. President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s advisor stated that the only viable solution is a military one due to the rival government in Sana’a. Both the SPC and the Hadi government are failing to pay salaries and provide basic government services.

Outlook: The Hadi government will use the al Houthi-Saleh alliance’s unilateral actions as a justification to pursue a military victory in Yemen, further damaging the prospects for political reconciliation.

SecurityHadi government forces conducted shaping operations for an offensive on Sana’a city. They seized a second major Saudi-Yemeni border crossing in Sa’ada governorate, a historical al Houthi stronghold. The Hadi government’s 37th Armored Brigade mobilized from Hadramawt to Ma’rib governorate to assist with operations in northern Yemen. Hadi government forces also claimed that al Houthi-Saleh fighters fled from fronts in northern Hajjah governorate.

Outlook: Hadi government forces may seek to consolidate recent gains in Sa’ada and al Jawf from which to launch a follow-on offensive against al Houthi positions in Sa’ada.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP and ISIS continue to attack security forces despite ongoing counterterrorism operations intended to degrade their safe havens in southern and central Yemen. AQAP seeks to increase its influence in southern and central Yemen by disseminating propaganda and conducting attacks on security forces. Coalition-backed security forces raided an ISIS bomb-making factory in Aden city and seized four tons of weapons from an AQAP stronghold in Hadramawt governorate between December 2 and 5. ISIS and AQAP also concentrated their attacks targeting security forces in central Yemen.

Outlook: ISIS Wilayat al Bayda will increase the tempo of its counter-al Houthi-Saleh attacks in al Bayda to garner support.

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

1) 01 DEC: AQAP militants detonated an IED targeting al Hizam forces in Abyan.2) 02 DEC: A reported U.S. airstrike targeted AQAP militants in Ma’rib governorate.3) 02 DEC: AQAP militants attacked al Houthi-Saleh forces in southwestern Ibb. 4) 04 DEC: ISIS militants attacked al Houthi-Saleh forces in western al Bayda. 5) 04 DEC: Hadi government forces seized Baqim, Sa’ada. 6) 05 DEC: Pro-Hadi forces repelled al Houthi-Saleh forces in Hajjah.

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PoliticalSomali presidential contenders are maneuvering for advantages in the upcoming presidential election. Current Somali Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke is currently President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s greatest challenge to winning a second term. Sharmarke and Mohamud are lobbying incoming MPs for support and attempting to move voting locations to areas that favor their candidacies. The presidential contest will likely take place in early 2017.

Outlook: A dispute between Mohamud and Sharmarke supporters may lead to a crisis of legitimacy following the election.

Security The ISIS-linked forces under command of Sheikh Abdiqadir Mumin, a defected al Shabaab shari’a official, remain weak and isolated in the Qandala area of northern Somalia. A coalition of Puntland Security Forces (PSF) and local militia began a clearing operation in Qandala on November 29. PSF killed seven ISIS-linked fighters in a village near Qandala on December 3, and an additional three ISIS-linked fighters on December 5. The mountainous terrain has slowed the PSF operation. Mumin’s contingent remains between 150 and 300 fighters. Al Shabaab internal security has been particularly effective at silencing ISIS sympathy among its militants, Somalis, and the youth of northeast Kenya.

Outlook: Abdiqadir Mumin’s ISIS-linked forces are unlikely to establish a foothold in Somalia outside of Puntland.

Al Shabaab Al Shabaab continues to attack Kenyan citizens and security personnel in the Somali-Kenyan border region. Al Shabaab militants claimed to kill five Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) with an improvised explosive device (IED) attack in Garissa County on November 30. The U.S. provided Six Huey II helicopters to assist Kenyans in the fight against al Shabaab, but Kenyan officials remain committed to a border wall that will not fully prevent al Shabaab militants from entering Kenya.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will continue to attack Kenyan civilians and security personnel in the lead-up to the August 2017 Kenyan elections.

GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

1) 01 DEC: Al Shabaab attacked a government convoy in El Baraf, Middle Shabelle. 2) 03-05 DEC: Puntland Security Forces (PSF) killed ISIS-linked militants near Qandala town.3) 05 DEC: Al Shabaab detonated an IED targeting local police in Burhakabo, Bay region. 4) 06 DEC: Aircraft struck an al Shabaab training camp near Torotoro, Lower Shabelle region. Western forces raided the camp after the strike.

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PoliticalThe UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) has not taken control of Libya’s state institutions despite international backing for the move. A power struggle between the Central Bank of Libya and the GNA is delaying the delivery of an internationally-brokered economic plan intended to solve Libya’s liquidity crisis. An ongoing security breakdown in Tripoli further undermines the GNA’s tenuous position in the capital. Some powerful militias in Tripoli nominally support the GNA but prioritize their local objectives over submitting to GNA authority.

Outlook: Clashes over financial resources and strategic sites will resume in Tripoli.

SecuritySalafi-jihadi groups may be opening a new front in Tripoli. Nominally GNA-allied Salafi militias launched an offensive throughout the capital in an effort to seize strategic sites from hardline Salafi militias on December 1. Elements of the Benghazi Revolutionary Shura Council (BRSC), an Islamist coalition with ties to al Qaeda associates, reportedly joined the fight in Tripoli after fleeing the Libyan National Army (LNA)’s advance on its stronghold in Benghazi. The LNA is pushing to seize the last remaining Salafi-jihadi bastions in Benghazi with intensified Emirati air support.

Outlook: The BRSC and affiliated Salafi-jihadi groups may attempt to establish a foothold in Tripoli.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaU.S.-backed forces announced the liberation of Sirte from ISIS. U.S.-backed forces will likely redirect their attention to the security breakdown in Tripoli, making military positions and civilians vulnerable to attacks by ISIS forces now operating in the desert south of Sirte. Misratan militias seeking to consolidate their influence in the Sirte basin may also direct forces to LNA-held oil ports, risking clashes between rival forces over control of Libya’s hydrocarbon resources.

Outlook: ISIS militants will likely wage a campaign of explosive attacks to disrupt security operations in central Libya.

WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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1) 01-02 DEC: Rival militias clashed over control of strategic positions in Tripoli.2) 02-03 DEC: The U.S. conducted 22 airstrikes on ISIS in al Jiza, Sirte. 3) 05 DEC: ISIS conducted two SVEST attacks and 30 ISIS militants surrendered to GNA-allied forces in al Jiza, Sirte.4) 05 DEC: The BRSC and ISIS killed nine LNA fighters during clashes in Qanfouda, Benghazi. 5) 01 DEC: Militants detonated two IEDs at the Benghazi Medical Center.

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Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the MaghrebAQIM is attempting to drive recruitment for its Tunisian affiliate. AQIM released a video titled, “Lions of Kairouan,” on December 3 that glorified the Uqba Ibn Nafa’a Brigade, which has a safe haven in Kairouan province. The video criticized the Tunisian state’s economic failings and showed militants detonating an IED striking a Tunisian military vehicle. Outlook: The Uqba Ibn Nafa’a Brigade will continue to conduct small-scale attacks on military targets in western Tunisia.

TunisiaTunisia’s largest labor union is preparing for a series of strikes in December to protest austerity measures. Regional and international organizations pledged investments and debt relief that aim to ameliorate Tunisia’s economic crisis.

Outlook: Organized protests will continue despite state and international efforts to moderate the effects of austerity.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)AQIM and its affiliates continued efforts to oust international forces from Mali. Al Murabitoun conducted a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attack on the UN-controlled Gao airport in central Mali on November 29. AQIM fired rockets at a French airbase near Timbuktu on the same day. Meanwhile, tensions are rising after botched Malian municipal elections. Pro-government GATIA forces attacked a Coordination for the Movement of Azawad (CMA) position near Gao on December 5.

The Nigerian government altered its treatment of high-profile prisoners to avoid unrest. Nigeria’s highest court ordered the Kaduna State government to release Ibrahim al Zakzaky, the leader of the Shia Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN). The court cited the botched detainment and extra-judicial killing of Boko Haram founder Muhammad Yusuf in its decision.

Outlook: Salafi-jihadi groups may escalate attacks on international positions while peacekeeping forces attempt to de-escalate tensions and preserve the peace accord in northern Mali.

WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB

1) 30 NOV: The Algerian army arrested two militants near Timiaouine, Adrar Province, Algeria.2) 01 DEC: The Tunisian National Guard arrested a Libya-trained militant in Kairouan,Tunisia.3) 01 DEC: The Moroccan BCIJ arrested eight ISIS members in Fez and Tangier, Morocco. 4) 05 DEC: The Moroccan BCIJ arrested two ISIS supporters attempting to acquire explosive material in Casablanca, Morocco.

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1) 29 NOV: Al Murabitoun detonated a SVBIED at Gao airport in Mali.2) 30 NOV: An ISIS supporter shot at the U.S. Embassy in N’djamena, Chad.3) 01 DEC: IMN protesters called for the release of leader Ibrahim al Zakzaky in Abuja, Nigeria.4) 02 DEC: GATIA militants attacked a CMA position near Gao city, Mali.5) 04 DEC: ISIS Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiyya attacked a MNJTF outpost near Kangarwa, Borno State, Nigeria.

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ACRONYMS

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)