2015 National Road Ahead Series
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Transcript of 2015 National Road Ahead Series
Presented by
Pete Macauley
24 February 2015
PageGroup overview
Global economic environment
The New Zealand economy
The Seek perspective
Industry trends
Business confidence
Unemployment rate comparison
Migration
Michael Page market research
Summary
Questions
Agenda
PageGroup overviewGlobal coverage
PageGroup overviewAsia Pacific coverage
Areas of specialisation
Global economic environmentGrowth rate of the world economy
Source: International Monetary Fund
Global economic environmentCan we expect growth in 2015?
Source: ANZ Economics & Markets Research
2014 2015 Forecast Overall Outlook
World 3.3% 3.9% Grinding higher
US 2.3% 3.2% Leading the way
Euro zone 0.8% 1.3% Slowly but surely
China 7.5% 7.0% Trending Lower
Australia 3.1% 2.9% Still transitioning
New Zealand 3.1% 3.0% Slowing down slightly
''When the Canterbury rebuild ends people will be quite surprised by the size of the downturn.”
Dominic Stephens – Chief economist, Westpac
''The New Zealand economy has had an excellent run and growth is moderating but that's not a bad thing. We're not an 'AsianTiger' and
we can't sustain 4 percent growth. We should be happy with 3 percent or even 2.5 percent.'‘
Sharon Zollner - Senior Economist, ANZ Bank
“The economy is trucking along very nicely.”
Stephen Toplis - Head of Research, Bank of New Zealand
“We are in the unusual but encouraging situation where we have solid economic growth, more employment and higher wages, but few
pressures on inflation.”
Bill English - Finance Minister
“Growth is expected to remain at or above trend through 2016, with unemployment continuing to decline.”
Graeme Wheeler – Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand,
“We expect 2015 to be a year of moderate gains as the global economy grinds up a gear.”
Stewart Brentnall - Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Bank
“New Zealand had one of the fastest-growing economies in the OECD in 2014, supporting its ‘rock star’ reputation.”
Paul Bloxham - Chief Economist, HSBC
The New Zealand economyThe experts’ opinions
New Zealand economyGross domestic product
Source: www.tradingeconomics.com
New Zealand economyBusiness confidence
New Zealand business confidence rose
to its highest level in almost 20 years in
February
According to the ANZ Business Outlook survey – NZH Friday
Feb 28, 2014
New Zealand economyUnemployment rate
Source: www.ieconomics.com
New Zealand economySkilled vacancies index
Source: www.dol.govt.nz
The Seek perspectiveJob ads
Seek New Zealand tracked a 10% YOY increase in advertised roles in 2014
More than 275,000 jobs online, an increase of more than 20,000
The highest number of ads were in ICT, which had almost twice as many listings as the
second most-popular job family
Areas that tracked the highest growth included Southland (+32%), Marlborough (+29%),
Tasman (+17%), Auckland (+13%) and Bay of Plenty (+12%).
The Seek perspectiveJob index by region
Source: Seek
The Seek perspectiveSkilled job index – sales
Source: Seek
The Seek perspectiveSkilled job index – finance
Source: Seek
The Seek perspectiveSkilled job index – marketing
Source: Seek
The Seek perspectiveSkilled job index – construction
Source: Seek
The Seek perspectiveSkilled job index – procurement and supply chain
Source: Seek
Business confidence
Source: www.ieconomics.com
Unemployment rate comparison
Source: ABS
Migration
MigrationArrivals
Highest ever net gain of migrants
Migrant arrivals (gross) reached a new record high
16% increase YOY
Australia, China and India leading migration to NZ
Kiwis coming home
MigrationDepartures
Fall in migrant departures
Migrant departures to Australia were the lowset since 2004
Net loss of 5,300 people to Australia
• 23,500 in 2013
• 39,300 in 2012
Smallest net loss since 1994
Michael Page market researchSalary and remuneration
Average percentage salary
increase over the next 12 months
Employee salary
expectations for job change
Michael Page market researchAttraction and retention
Most popular tools for
attraction and retentionWhat jobseekers are looking for in their
next role
Michael Page market researchStaff turnover
Employer expectations for staff
turnover in the next 12 months
Employee turnover in the
next 12 months
Michael Page market researchEmployee activity
Interview attended in the last 12 months
Michael Page market researchRecruitment activity
Experience level expected to be
in highest demand
Top factor that jobseekers are
looking for in their next role (by age)
Michael Page market researchRecruitment activity
Plans to hire overseas workers
within the next 12 months
Expectation of local talent leaving
for overseas opportunities
Summary
2014 was another strong year for the economy
The data is pointing towards another positive year for NZ business
Employers more aware of the talent shortage and subsequent attraction and retention
challenges
Employees are expecting more
Staff turnover is set to rise – again
Australia’s challenges are NZ’s opportunities
Generate the return of NZ’s attractiveness – TODAY!
Thank you
Questions