2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
-
Upload
car-research-economics -
Category
Documents
-
view
219 -
download
0
Transcript of 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
1/69
2014 ANNUAL HOUSING
MARKET SURVEYDecember 4, 2014
Oscar Wei, Senior Research Analyst
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
2/69
METHODOLOGY
C.A.R. has conducted the Annual Housing Market Survey since 1981. Thequestions and methodology have stayed essentially the same throughoutthat time.
The survey was sent via email to a random sample of 26,674 REALTORSthroughout California.The sample represented the geographicaldistribution of C.A.R. membership across the state.The survey asked
REALTORS to provide information from their most recent salestransaction that closed escrow in the second quarter of 2014.
The survey instrument was a questionnaire with both multiple choice andopen-ended questions.There were 1,458 valid survey responses,equivalent to a response rate of 5.5 percent.The margin of error for thissurvey was +/- 2.6 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
3/69
TODAYS MARKET
Clearly well on the road to recovering
Volume A bit down, still reliant on investment sales
Prices up sharply, but increases slowing in most markets
Inventory remains tight
Pent-up/unrealized demand not yet translating into sales
Affordability challenges emerging once again
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
4/69
SALES OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES
California, Oct. 2014 Sales: 396,220 Units, -8.8% YTD, -1.9%YTY
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualizedSERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
Oct-14:396,220
Oct-13:404,000
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
5/69
DEMAND FOR INVESTMENT & SECOND/ VACATIONHOMES DROPS TO THE LOWEST SINCE 2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Vacation/Second Home
Investment/Rental Property
5%
15%
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
Long Run Average: 12 %
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
6/69
MORE DISTRESSED SALES ARE BEING ABSORBED BYINVESTORS OVERTIME
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Share of Distressed Sales Bought by First-Time Buyers
Share of Distressed Sales Bought by Investment Buyers
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
7/69
EQUITY SALESVS. REO VS. SHORT SALES (2014)
Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales
Share of Total Sales 93.5% 2.5% 3.6%
Median Home Price $479,000 $280,000 $277,500
Square Footage 1,700 1,500 1,400
Price / SF $294 $143 $183
Sales-to-List Price Ratio 100.0% 99.1% 100.0%
% of Sales With Multiple Offers 51.4% 82.6% 65.0%
Avg. Number of Offers 4.2 6.5 4.6
% of All Cash Sales 21.7% 21.7% 30.8%
Days on MLS 15 20 30
Days in Escrow 30 32 52
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
8/69
EQUITY SALES (2011 - 2014)
2011 2012 2013 2014
Share of Total Sales 58.7% 64.7% 80.8% 93.5%
Median Home Price $431,000 $448,000 $456,635 $479,000
Square Footage 1,783 1,750 1,678 1,700
Price / SF $250 $243 $270 $294
Sales-to-List Price Ratio 95.9% 97.3% 100.0% 100.0%
% of Sales With MultipleOffers
35.2% 50.9% 69.0% 51.4%
Avg. Number of Offers 3.0 4.0 5.2 4.2
% of All Cash Sales 25.5% 27.3% 25.2 21.7%
Days on MLS 67 32 10 15
Days in Escrow 35 35 30 30
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
9/69
REO SALES (2011 - 2014)
2011 2012 2013 2014
Share of Total Sales 19.7% 12.3% 4.9% 2.5%
Median Home Price $189,500 $185,000 $175,500 $280,000
Square Footage 1,500 1,500 1,400 1,500
Price / SF $112 $116 $101 $143
Sales-to-List Price Ratio 98.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.1%
% of Sales With MultipleOffers
58.3% 70.8% 91.2% 82.6%
Avg. Number of Offers 4.3 4.2 7.4 6.5
% of All Cash Sales 34.0% 43.1% 50.0% 21.7%
Days on MLS 50 30 15 20
Days in Escrow 35 45 35 32
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
10/69
SHORT SALES (2011 - 2014)
2011 2012 2013 2014
Share of Total Sales 20.2% 21.7% 14.0% 3.6%
Median Home Price $287,000 $235,000 $276,500 $277,500
Square Footage 1,600 1,600 1,650 1,400
Price / SF $175 $154 $146 $183
Sales-to-List Price Ratio 95.9% 99.9% 103.0% 100.0%
% of Sales With MultipleOffers
57.5% 66.1% 75.7% 65.0%
Avg. Number of Offers 3.6 4.3 7.1 4.6
% of All Cash Sales 23.3% 26.7% 35.7% 30.8%
Days on MLS 141 90 14 30
Days in Escrow 45 50 60 52
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
11/69
MARKET COMPETITION COOLS DOWNAFTER PEAKING IN 2013
72%
53%5.7
4.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
% with Multiple Offers
# of Multiple offers (Average)
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
12/69
FEWER HOMES SOLD ABOVETHE ASKING PRICE ASMARKET COMPETITION COOLED IN 2014
7%
11%
28%
54%
0% 20% 40% 60%
20% or more
10% to 19.99%
5% to 9.99%
Less than 5%
Amt. of Price Reduction
49%
18%
33%
Sale Price to Asking Price
Below Asking Price AtAsking Price Above AskingPrice
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
Median Reduction = 4.5% of List Price
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
13/69
50%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
% of Sales above Asking Price
Long RunAverage = 19%
FEWER HOMES SOLD ABOVETHE ASKING PRICEAS MARKET COMPETITION COOLED IN 2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Med. Price Discount
Med. Weeks on MLS
0%, 2.1
weeks
Median Price Discount & Weeks on Market
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
14/69
PRICE REDUCTION PRIORTO AN OFFER BEING MADE
37%
7%
11%
13%
13%
19%
0% 20% 40%
$1,000 or less
$1001 - $,5000
$5,001 - $10,000
$10,001 - $20,000
$20,001 - $50,000
More than $50,000
Amt. of Price Reduction
Q.Was there any price reduction made to the list price prior to an offer being made to the property?Q. How much was the price reduction?
29%
71%
Price Reduction
Yes No
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
Avg. Reduction $ = $10,000
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
15/69
SHARE OF CASH BUYERS ISTHE LOWEST SINCE 2009
22%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
% ofAll Cash Sales
Almost one-fourth of buyers paid
with all cash
The share of all cash buyers is the
lowest in the last 5 years
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
16/69
THE SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL BUYERS DECLINESFROM 2013, BUT STILL THE 2ND HIGHEST IN THE LAST 6
YEARS
Q.Was the buyer an international buyer a person who was a citizen of another countrywho wished topurchase residential real estate in the U.S.?
6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
17/69
REALTORS WORKED WITH INTERNATIONAL BUYERSIN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
Q. How many properties have you sold to an international buyer in the last 12 months?
79%
9%
5% 3% 1% 3%
71%
14%
6% 4% 2% 4%
72%
12%
6% 3% 2% 5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0 1 2 3 4 5 or more
2012
2013
2014
% Who Sold to International Buyers
# of Properties Sold to International Buyers in the Last 12 Months
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
18/69
REASONSTO BUY IN CALIFORNIA
Mild year-around weather Advanced Educational Opportunities
System # of Campuses
Examples
Universityof California 10 University of California,Berkeley
University of California,LosAngeles
University of California,Riverside
University of California,SanDiego
California StateUniversity
23 Cal State University,Fullerton
Cal State University,Northridge
Cal State PolytechnicUniversity, Pomona
California CommunityCollege
109+ Santa Monica College Pasadena City College
PrivateUniversity Hundreds California Institute ofTechnology
Pepperdine University Stanford University University of Southern
California
Amazing outdoor environment
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
19/69
COUNTRY OF INTERNATIONAL BUYER
China (36%)
Canada (10%)
India (12%)
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
20/69
PRICE PLATEAU AHEAD; ANNUAL GAINSSLOWINGCalifornia, Oct. 2014: $450,620, Up 5.4%YTY
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
Oct-14:
$450,620Oct-13:
$427,540
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
P: May-07$594,530
T: Feb-09
$245,230-59% frompeak
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
21/69
INCOME REQUIRED TO BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME IN CA: (PEAK VS. CURRENT)
$56,324
$94,965
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
2012 Q1 2014 Q3
Change in minimum required income:
$38,641
Increase in income attributed to
interest rate increase:
$365 (0.9% of total change)
Increase in income attributed to price
increase :
$38,276 (99.1% of total change)
SERIES: Housing Affordability IndexSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
22/69
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY DOWN
SHARPLY SINCE Q1 2012
% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN
BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME
SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional BuyersSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80% CA US
California vs. U.S. 1984-2014
Annual Quarterly
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
23/69
SHARE OF FIRST-TIME BUYERS UPBUT STILL BELOW LONG-RUN AVERAGE
Q.Was the buyer a first-time buyer?
30.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
% First-TimeHome Buyers Long RunAverage
Long Run Average = 38%
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
24/69
FINANCIAL CHARACTERISTICS:FIRST-TIME VS. REPEAT
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
First-time Buyers Repeat Buyers All Buyers
Median Household Income $80,000 $120,000 $100,000
Median Monthly Mortgage Payment $1,477 $1,868 $1,800
Median Downpayment (in $$) $32,500 $100,000 $70,000
Median Downpayment (in % to Price) 10% 20% 19.7%
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
25/69
$70,000
20%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Median Down Payment % of Down Payment to Price
Q. What was the amount of downpayment?
THE MEDIAN DOWN PAYMENT REMAINED THE SAMEAS IN 2013
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
26/69
MEDIAN DOWN PAYMENTFIRST-TIME HOMEBUYERS VS. REPEAT HOMEBUYERS
Q. What was the amount of downpayment?
$32,500
$100,000
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
27/69
CASH SOURCE FOR DOWN PAYMENTFIRST-TIME BUYER VS. REPEAT BUYER
Q.What was the source of the cash the buyer used for a downpayment or to purchase the residence?
First-time Buyers Repeat Buyers All Buyers
Personal saving 63.3% 50.8% 54.8%
Proceeds from sale of previousresidence
0.0% 22.7% 15.6%
Borrowed or gift from relatives 15.5% 4.5% 8.1%Sale of personal assets other than real
property 1.7% 3.5% 2.9%
Inheritance 4.0% 2.9% 3.2%
Proceeds from sale or refi of another
property 0.0% 4.6% 3.2%
Other 13.5% 11.0% 12.2%
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
28/69
STUDENT LOAN DEBT AN ISSUE FOR 25% OFRENTERS
SERIES: 2013 Renter SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
Yes, 23%
No, 75%
Refused,
2%
Student Loan Debt
78%
8%
6%
3%
2%
2%
$100K
Refused
Amount of Debt
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
29/69
STUDENT DEBT: DRAGS ON HOME SALES
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
30/69
RISING SHARE OF NEVER-MARRIED ADULTS
SOURCE: Pew Research Center analysis of the 1960-2000 decennial census and 2010-2012AmericanCommunity Survey
% of men and women ages 25 and older who have never been married
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
31/69
BUYER HOUSEHOLD FORMATION(OVERTHEYEARS)
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Single 30.8% 29.7% 32.4% 28.6% 28.9% 22.4% 21.7%
Married Couple with
Dependents 33.8% 36.9% 30.8% 34.8% 33.6% 39.4% 42.6%
Married Couple withoutDependents
27.1% 19.2% 23.8% 24.2% 24.0% 25.1% 23.5%
2 or More Individuals
(Related or Unrelated) 7.2% 13.8% 11.2% 10.7% 11.5% 9.6% 9.1%
Other 1.4% 0.5% 1.8% 1.7% 2.0% 3.5% 3.1%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
32/69
LOCATION OF BUYERS PREVIOUS RESIDENCE
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
First-time Buyers Repeat Buyers All Buyers
Within the same county 63.9% 56.2% 58.2%
In another county in California 18.1% 21.6% 20.0%
In another state 1.4% 11.0% 7.9%
Out of US 3.6% 2.1% 2.5%
Don't Know/Not sure 13.1% 9.1% 11.4%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
33/69
LOCATION OF BUYERS PREVIOUS RESIDENCE
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Within the same county 63% 61% 61% 65% 64% 62% 57% 62% 57% 58%
In another county in California 21% 23% 22% 17% 18% 18% 24% 19% 22% 20%
In another state 6% 6% 6% 8% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8%
Out of US 1% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Don't Know/Not sure 9% 8% 10% 7% 10% 11% 10% 8% 12% 11%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
34/69
REASONS FOR CHANGING COUNTY
26%
16%
12%
12%
8%
7%
3%
1%
0%
14%
10%
7%
14%
18%
9%
10%
3%
7%
4%
19%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Housing affordability
Shorter commute to work/school
Closer to family/relative
Quality of life
Quality of school
Job change
Quality of community services
Second home
Retired
Other
First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
35/69
7.9%
11.3%
5.1%6.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
All Hombuyers First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers
Down Payment
PERCENT OF BUYERS WITH ZERO DOWN PAYMENT
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
36/69
PROPORTION OF TRANSACTIONS WITH SECONDMORTGAGES
Q. In addition to the first mortgage or assumption, was there a second mortgage?
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Percent of Home Sales with Second Mortgage
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
37/69
PERCENT OF BUYERS WITH SECOND MORTGAGE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
38/69
Q. Please indicate the type of mortgage.
SHARE OF FHA STILL SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN 2007,
BUT WAS THE LOWEST IN 7YEARS (FIRST MORTGAGE)
16%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FHA VA
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
39/69
WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT LOW LEVEL OFFIRST-TIME BUYER?
It signals a constrained flow of new householdsin the housing market
Trade-up market cannot be replenished in the
long run
First-time buyers represent the main impulsethat drives the states homeownership rate
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
40/69
HOMEOWNERSHIP RATES
California Vs. U.S.
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75% CA US
SERIES: Homeownership RatesSOURCE: U.S.Census Bureau
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
41/69
BUYERS FINANCIAL PROFILE (BY AGE RANGE)
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
Age 30 and
under Age 30-44 Age 45-64 Age 65 and up
Median Income $65,000 $100,000 $120,000 $100,000
Median Price $284,000 $508,500 $495,000 $400,000
Downpayment ($) $20,000 $62,000 $109,000 $100,000
Downpayment (% to Sale Price) 5.0% 13.7% 20.0% 22.0%
% of First-Time Buyers 85.4% 45.6% 13.3% 4.5%
Diff. Between Median Income and
Mini. Req. Income -$26,508 $8,492 $28,492 $8,492
% Can Afford to Buy a Median-Priced
Home 28.6% 64.8% 66.4% 59.1%
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
42/69
HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE BY AGE OFHOUSEHOLDER
SOURCE: Census Bureau
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
43/69
MILLENNIAL HOMEOWNERSHIP FALLING
SOURCE: Census Bureau
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
44/69
REASONS FOR BUYING
Q. What was the single most important reason for buying the property?
Tired of Renting, 24.7%
Desired Larger Home,
18.3%
Investment/Tax
Considerations, 15.8%
Desired Better
Location, 16.5%
Change in Family
Status, 5.0%
Changed Jobs, 4.0%
Foreclosure/Short
Sale/Default, 0.5%
Desired Smaller Home,
3.5%
Retirement/Move
to Retirement
Community, 2.8%
Other, 8.8%
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
45/69
REASONS FOR BUYINGFIRST TIME HOMEBUYERSVS. REPEAT HOMEBUYERS
Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Tired of Renting
Desired Larger Home
Desired Better Location
Change in Family Status
Investment/ Tax Considerations
Other
Changed Jobs
Retirement/Move to Retirement Community
Foreclosure/Short Sale/Default
Desired Smaller Home
First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
46/69
FIRST-TIME BUYERS BOUGHT BECAUSE THEY WERETIRED OF RENTING
Q.Was the buyer a first-time buyer?
54%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
% Bought Because of Tired of Renting
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
47/69
FIRST-TIME BUYERS NEEDYOUR HELPCONNECT EARLY AND OFTEN
Financial Literacy: How to manage their finances
What about student-loan debt?
Can my parents help me out?
How do I increase my credit score?
How to save for a down payment and how much?
What programs are available? Tools to find out
Downpayment Resource on car.org
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
48/69
DOWNPAYMENT.CAR.ORG
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
49/69
INVENTORY IMPROVING FROM LASTYEAR
Oct 2013: 3.3 Months; Oct 2014: 3.8 Months
Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The
remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide
the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.
0
2
4
6
810
12
14
16
18
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
50/69
WHY WAS/IS INVENTORY SO LOW?
Demand Side Housing affordability was at historic highs Low rates hurt investment alternatives International buyers
Supply Side Little new construction for last 5 years Underwater homeowners are stuck Mortgage Lock-In Effect No inventory to move up Foreclosure pipeline drying up Investors are renting instead of flipping Off-market (aka pocket) listings
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
51/69
BUYING TO RENT: WINNING INVESTMENT
STRATEGY
Investment to Flip
Rental Property
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
52/69
FOR THOSE WHO PURCHASED AN INVESTMENTPROPERTY:
Investment
Flip 14% Flip 9% Flip 26% Flip 62%
Rent 86% Rent 91% Rent 74% Rent 38%
Distressed Sales
Investment
Flip 15% Flip 20% Flip 12% Flip 23%
Rent 85% Rent 80% Rent 88% Rent 77%Equity Sales
2011 2012 2013 2014
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
53/69
CA PERMITS UP BUT MORE UNITS NEEDED
2013: 80,318 Units, Up 37.2% from 2012
SERIES: New Housing PermitsSOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000 Single Family Multi-Family
HouseholdGrowth: 220,000-250,000/yr
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
54/69
POCKET LISTINGS
96%
16%
4%
1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Property listed on an MLS
Property marketed before it was being listed
on the MLS
Property received an accepted offer prior to
it being listed on the MLS
Transaction happened on auction.com
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
55/69
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 All Sellers
YEARS OWNED HOME BEFORE SELLING
SERIES: 2013Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
56/69
REASONS FOR SELLING
Q. What was the single most important reason for selling the property?
Foreclosure/Short
Sale/Default, 6.2%
Change in Family
Status, 13.3%
Retirement/Move to
Retirement
Community, 11.6%
Investment/Tax
Considerations, 10.9%
Desired Better
Location, 12.8%
Desired Smaller Home,8.5%
Changed Jobs, 7.0%
Desired Larger Home,8.4%
Other, 21.3%
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
57/69
SELLERS WHO SOLD BECAUSE THEIR PROPERTIES WERE
IN DISTRESSED STATUS WERE BACK TO 2007 LEVEL
Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?
6%0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
% of Homes Sold Due to Foreclosure/Short Sale/Default
SERIES: 2013Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
58/69
SELLERS WITH NET CASH LOSS DROPPEDTO THELOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2006
Q.What was the net cash gainor net lossto the seller as a result of this sale?
8.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Long Run Average = 12.2%
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
59/69
Q.What was the net cash gainor net lossto the seller as a result of this sale?
$100,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
NET CASH GAINTO SELLERS ROSE AGAIN FORTHESECONDYEAR
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
60/69
NEARLY HALF OF ALL SELLERS ARE PLANNINGTO BUYANOTHER HOME ASTHE MARKET RECOVERS
Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
61/69
LOCATION OF SELLERS NEW HOME
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Within the same county 38% 41% 37% 45% 47% 42% 49% 49% 46% 44%
In another county in California 23% 18% 24% 17% 21% 21% 19% 18% 20% 21%
In another state 31% 28% 29% 27% 19% 20% 20% 22% 19% 22%Out of US 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Don't Know/Not sure 7% 11% 9% 10% 12% 16% 10% 10% 15% 13%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
62/69
FORTHOSE WHO DO NOT PLANTO REPURCHASE,HERE ARE THEIR TOP REASONS:
14%
10%
8%
7%
7%
5%
15%
9%
9%
22%
12%
7%
4%
6%
5%
7%
6%
5%
21%
16%
9%
6%
6%
5%
4%
2%
3%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Seller prefers to have less financial obligation
Seller owns another home
Decide to live with family/friends
Deceased
Retirement/Moved to Retirement Facility
Out of work/underemployment
Seller is a lender/bank
Lack of cash for down payment
Poor credit background
2012 2013 2014
SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
63/69
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Sales down from 2013, but improving in recent months;investment sales still play a role
International buyers continue to show interest in buying in CA
Prices up sharply, but increases slowing in most markets
Housing affordability remains a challenge, especially to first-time buyers
Sellers are optimistic about the housing market
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
64/69
CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET FORECAST
SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS
SFH Resales (000s)
% Change
Median Price ($000s)
% Change
Housing Affordability Index
30-Yr FRM
2011
422.6
1.4%
$286.0
-6.2%
53%
4.5%
2012
439.8
4.1%
$319.3
11.6%
51%
3.7%
2013
413.3
-5.8%
$407.2
27.5%
36%
4.0%
2014 P
380.5
-8.2%
$455.0
11.8%
30%
4.3%
2015 F
402.5
5.8%
$478.7
5.2%
27%
4.5%
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
65/69
Working with International HomeBuyers in California
Thursday, January 29, 2014
2:00 PM - 3:00 PM
To register:
WWW.CAR.ORG/MARKETDATA/VIDEOS
JOIN US FOR OUR NEXT WEBINAR
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
66/69
http://www.car.org/marketdata/map
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
67/69
Formore information:http://www.facebook.com/CARResearchgroup
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
68/69
Sharing the most up-to-date informationabout Californias housing market.
Read Research & Economics blog at:
HousingMatters.car.org
Housing Matters
Data Visualization. EconomicTrends.Housing Affordability. HousingTrends. Market Outlook.
-
8/10/2019 2014 Annual Housing Market Survey
69/69
THANKYOU!www.car.org/marketdata
Facebook: CARResearchgroup
Twitter: CARResearchInfo