2014 Annual Housing Market Survey

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    2014 ANNUAL HOUSING

    MARKET SURVEYDecember 4, 2014

    Oscar Wei, Senior Research Analyst

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    METHODOLOGY

    C.A.R. has conducted the Annual Housing Market Survey since 1981. Thequestions and methodology have stayed essentially the same throughoutthat time.

    The survey was sent via email to a random sample of 26,674 REALTORSthroughout California.The sample represented the geographicaldistribution of C.A.R. membership across the state.The survey asked

    REALTORS to provide information from their most recent salestransaction that closed escrow in the second quarter of 2014.

    The survey instrument was a questionnaire with both multiple choice andopen-ended questions.There were 1,458 valid survey responses,equivalent to a response rate of 5.5 percent.The margin of error for thissurvey was +/- 2.6 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

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    TODAYS MARKET

    Clearly well on the road to recovering

    Volume A bit down, still reliant on investment sales

    Prices up sharply, but increases slowing in most markets

    Inventory remains tight

    Pent-up/unrealized demand not yet translating into sales

    Affordability challenges emerging once again

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    SALES OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES

    California, Oct. 2014 Sales: 396,220 Units, -8.8% YTD, -1.9%YTY

    -

    100,000

    200,000

    300,000

    400,000

    500,000

    600,000

    700,000

    *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualizedSERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

    Oct-14:396,220

    Oct-13:404,000

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    DEMAND FOR INVESTMENT & SECOND/ VACATIONHOMES DROPS TO THE LOWEST SINCE 2010

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    Vacation/Second Home

    Investment/Rental Property

    5%

    15%

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

    Long Run Average: 12 %

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    MORE DISTRESSED SALES ARE BEING ABSORBED BYINVESTORS OVERTIME

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Share of Distressed Sales Bought by First-Time Buyers

    Share of Distressed Sales Bought by Investment Buyers

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    EQUITY SALESVS. REO VS. SHORT SALES (2014)

    Equity Sales REO Sales Short Sales

    Share of Total Sales 93.5% 2.5% 3.6%

    Median Home Price $479,000 $280,000 $277,500

    Square Footage 1,700 1,500 1,400

    Price / SF $294 $143 $183

    Sales-to-List Price Ratio 100.0% 99.1% 100.0%

    % of Sales With Multiple Offers 51.4% 82.6% 65.0%

    Avg. Number of Offers 4.2 6.5 4.6

    % of All Cash Sales 21.7% 21.7% 30.8%

    Days on MLS 15 20 30

    Days in Escrow 30 32 52

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    EQUITY SALES (2011 - 2014)

    2011 2012 2013 2014

    Share of Total Sales 58.7% 64.7% 80.8% 93.5%

    Median Home Price $431,000 $448,000 $456,635 $479,000

    Square Footage 1,783 1,750 1,678 1,700

    Price / SF $250 $243 $270 $294

    Sales-to-List Price Ratio 95.9% 97.3% 100.0% 100.0%

    % of Sales With MultipleOffers

    35.2% 50.9% 69.0% 51.4%

    Avg. Number of Offers 3.0 4.0 5.2 4.2

    % of All Cash Sales 25.5% 27.3% 25.2 21.7%

    Days on MLS 67 32 10 15

    Days in Escrow 35 35 30 30

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    REO SALES (2011 - 2014)

    2011 2012 2013 2014

    Share of Total Sales 19.7% 12.3% 4.9% 2.5%

    Median Home Price $189,500 $185,000 $175,500 $280,000

    Square Footage 1,500 1,500 1,400 1,500

    Price / SF $112 $116 $101 $143

    Sales-to-List Price Ratio 98.0% 100.0% 100.0% 99.1%

    % of Sales With MultipleOffers

    58.3% 70.8% 91.2% 82.6%

    Avg. Number of Offers 4.3 4.2 7.4 6.5

    % of All Cash Sales 34.0% 43.1% 50.0% 21.7%

    Days on MLS 50 30 15 20

    Days in Escrow 35 45 35 32

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    SHORT SALES (2011 - 2014)

    2011 2012 2013 2014

    Share of Total Sales 20.2% 21.7% 14.0% 3.6%

    Median Home Price $287,000 $235,000 $276,500 $277,500

    Square Footage 1,600 1,600 1,650 1,400

    Price / SF $175 $154 $146 $183

    Sales-to-List Price Ratio 95.9% 99.9% 103.0% 100.0%

    % of Sales With MultipleOffers

    57.5% 66.1% 75.7% 65.0%

    Avg. Number of Offers 3.6 4.3 7.1 4.6

    % of All Cash Sales 23.3% 26.7% 35.7% 30.8%

    Days on MLS 141 90 14 30

    Days in Escrow 45 50 60 52

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    MARKET COMPETITION COOLS DOWNAFTER PEAKING IN 2013

    72%

    53%5.7

    4.3

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    % with Multiple Offers

    # of Multiple offers (Average)

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    FEWER HOMES SOLD ABOVETHE ASKING PRICE ASMARKET COMPETITION COOLED IN 2014

    7%

    11%

    28%

    54%

    0% 20% 40% 60%

    20% or more

    10% to 19.99%

    5% to 9.99%

    Less than 5%

    Amt. of Price Reduction

    49%

    18%

    33%

    Sale Price to Asking Price

    Below Asking Price AtAsking Price Above AskingPrice

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

    Median Reduction = 4.5% of List Price

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    50%

    33%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    % of Sales above Asking Price

    Long RunAverage = 19%

    FEWER HOMES SOLD ABOVETHE ASKING PRICEAS MARKET COMPETITION COOLED IN 2014

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    8%

    9%

    10%

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Med. Price Discount

    Med. Weeks on MLS

    0%, 2.1

    weeks

    Median Price Discount & Weeks on Market

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    PRICE REDUCTION PRIORTO AN OFFER BEING MADE

    37%

    7%

    11%

    13%

    13%

    19%

    0% 20% 40%

    $1,000 or less

    $1001 - $,5000

    $5,001 - $10,000

    $10,001 - $20,000

    $20,001 - $50,000

    More than $50,000

    Amt. of Price Reduction

    Q.Was there any price reduction made to the list price prior to an offer being made to the property?Q. How much was the price reduction?

    29%

    71%

    Price Reduction

    Yes No

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

    Avg. Reduction $ = $10,000

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    SHARE OF CASH BUYERS ISTHE LOWEST SINCE 2009

    22%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    % ofAll Cash Sales

    Almost one-fourth of buyers paid

    with all cash

    The share of all cash buyers is the

    lowest in the last 5 years

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    THE SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL BUYERS DECLINESFROM 2013, BUT STILL THE 2ND HIGHEST IN THE LAST 6

    YEARS

    Q.Was the buyer an international buyer a person who was a citizen of another countrywho wished topurchase residential real estate in the U.S.?

    6%

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    8%

    9%

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    REALTORS WORKED WITH INTERNATIONAL BUYERSIN THE PAST 12 MONTHS

    Q. How many properties have you sold to an international buyer in the last 12 months?

    79%

    9%

    5% 3% 1% 3%

    71%

    14%

    6% 4% 2% 4%

    72%

    12%

    6% 3% 2% 5%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    0 1 2 3 4 5 or more

    2012

    2013

    2014

    % Who Sold to International Buyers

    # of Properties Sold to International Buyers in the Last 12 Months

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    REASONSTO BUY IN CALIFORNIA

    Mild year-around weather Advanced Educational Opportunities

    System # of Campuses

    Examples

    Universityof California 10 University of California,Berkeley

    University of California,LosAngeles

    University of California,Riverside

    University of California,SanDiego

    California StateUniversity

    23 Cal State University,Fullerton

    Cal State University,Northridge

    Cal State PolytechnicUniversity, Pomona

    California CommunityCollege

    109+ Santa Monica College Pasadena City College

    PrivateUniversity Hundreds California Institute ofTechnology

    Pepperdine University Stanford University University of Southern

    California

    Amazing outdoor environment

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    COUNTRY OF INTERNATIONAL BUYER

    China (36%)

    Canada (10%)

    India (12%)

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    PRICE PLATEAU AHEAD; ANNUAL GAINSSLOWINGCalifornia, Oct. 2014: $450,620, Up 5.4%YTY

    SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

    Oct-14:

    $450,620Oct-13:

    $427,540

    $-

    $100,000

    $200,000

    $300,000

    $400,000

    $500,000

    $600,000

    $700,000

    Jan-05

    Jul-05

    Jan-06

    Jul-06

    Jan-07

    Jul-07

    Jan-08

    Jul-08

    Jan-09

    Jul-09

    Jan-10

    Jul-10

    Jan-11

    Jul-11

    Jan-12

    Jul-12

    Jan-13

    Jul-13

    Jan-14

    Jul-14

    P: May-07$594,530

    T: Feb-09

    $245,230-59% frompeak

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    INCOME REQUIRED TO BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME IN CA: (PEAK VS. CURRENT)

    $56,324

    $94,965

    $0

    $20,000

    $40,000

    $60,000

    $80,000

    $100,000

    2012 Q1 2014 Q3

    Change in minimum required income:

    $38,641

    Increase in income attributed to

    interest rate increase:

    $365 (0.9% of total change)

    Increase in income attributed to price

    increase :

    $38,276 (99.1% of total change)

    SERIES: Housing Affordability IndexSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    HOUSING AFFORDABILITY DOWN

    SHARPLY SINCE Q1 2012

    % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN

    BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME

    SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional BuyersSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80% CA US

    California vs. U.S. 1984-2014

    Annual Quarterly

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    SHARE OF FIRST-TIME BUYERS UPBUT STILL BELOW LONG-RUN AVERAGE

    Q.Was the buyer a first-time buyer?

    30.5%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    % First-TimeHome Buyers Long RunAverage

    Long Run Average = 38%

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    FINANCIAL CHARACTERISTICS:FIRST-TIME VS. REPEAT

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

    First-time Buyers Repeat Buyers All Buyers

    Median Household Income $80,000 $120,000 $100,000

    Median Monthly Mortgage Payment $1,477 $1,868 $1,800

    Median Downpayment (in $$) $32,500 $100,000 $70,000

    Median Downpayment (in % to Price) 10% 20% 19.7%

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    $70,000

    20%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    $0

    $10,000

    $20,000

    $30,000

    $40,000

    $50,000

    $60,000

    $70,000

    $80,000

    $90,000

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Median Down Payment % of Down Payment to Price

    Q. What was the amount of downpayment?

    THE MEDIAN DOWN PAYMENT REMAINED THE SAMEAS IN 2013

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    MEDIAN DOWN PAYMENTFIRST-TIME HOMEBUYERS VS. REPEAT HOMEBUYERS

    Q. What was the amount of downpayment?

    $32,500

    $100,000

    $0

    $20,000

    $40,000

    $60,000

    $80,000

    $100,000

    $120,000

    $140,000

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    CASH SOURCE FOR DOWN PAYMENTFIRST-TIME BUYER VS. REPEAT BUYER

    Q.What was the source of the cash the buyer used for a downpayment or to purchase the residence?

    First-time Buyers Repeat Buyers All Buyers

    Personal saving 63.3% 50.8% 54.8%

    Proceeds from sale of previousresidence

    0.0% 22.7% 15.6%

    Borrowed or gift from relatives 15.5% 4.5% 8.1%Sale of personal assets other than real

    property 1.7% 3.5% 2.9%

    Inheritance 4.0% 2.9% 3.2%

    Proceeds from sale or refi of another

    property 0.0% 4.6% 3.2%

    Other 13.5% 11.0% 12.2%

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    STUDENT LOAN DEBT AN ISSUE FOR 25% OFRENTERS

    SERIES: 2013 Renter SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

    Yes, 23%

    No, 75%

    Refused,

    2%

    Student Loan Debt

    78%

    8%

    6%

    3%

    2%

    2%

    $100K

    Refused

    Amount of Debt

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    STUDENT DEBT: DRAGS ON HOME SALES

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    RISING SHARE OF NEVER-MARRIED ADULTS

    SOURCE: Pew Research Center analysis of the 1960-2000 decennial census and 2010-2012AmericanCommunity Survey

    % of men and women ages 25 and older who have never been married

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    BUYER HOUSEHOLD FORMATION(OVERTHEYEARS)

    2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Single 30.8% 29.7% 32.4% 28.6% 28.9% 22.4% 21.7%

    Married Couple with

    Dependents 33.8% 36.9% 30.8% 34.8% 33.6% 39.4% 42.6%

    Married Couple withoutDependents

    27.1% 19.2% 23.8% 24.2% 24.0% 25.1% 23.5%

    2 or More Individuals

    (Related or Unrelated) 7.2% 13.8% 11.2% 10.7% 11.5% 9.6% 9.1%

    Other 1.4% 0.5% 1.8% 1.7% 2.0% 3.5% 3.1%

    Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    LOCATION OF BUYERS PREVIOUS RESIDENCE

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

    First-time Buyers Repeat Buyers All Buyers

    Within the same county 63.9% 56.2% 58.2%

    In another county in California 18.1% 21.6% 20.0%

    In another state 1.4% 11.0% 7.9%

    Out of US 3.6% 2.1% 2.5%

    Don't Know/Not sure 13.1% 9.1% 11.4%

    Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

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    LOCATION OF BUYERS PREVIOUS RESIDENCE

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Within the same county 63% 61% 61% 65% 64% 62% 57% 62% 57% 58%

    In another county in California 21% 23% 22% 17% 18% 18% 24% 19% 22% 20%

    In another state 6% 6% 6% 8% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8%

    Out of US 1% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2%

    Don't Know/Not sure 9% 8% 10% 7% 10% 11% 10% 8% 12% 11%

    Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    REASONS FOR CHANGING COUNTY

    26%

    16%

    12%

    12%

    8%

    7%

    3%

    1%

    0%

    14%

    10%

    7%

    14%

    18%

    9%

    10%

    3%

    7%

    4%

    19%

    0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

    Housing affordability

    Shorter commute to work/school

    Closer to family/relative

    Quality of life

    Quality of school

    Job change

    Quality of community services

    Second home

    Retired

    Other

    First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    7.9%

    11.3%

    5.1%6.9%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    All Hombuyers First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers

    Down Payment

    PERCENT OF BUYERS WITH ZERO DOWN PAYMENT

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    PROPORTION OF TRANSACTIONS WITH SECONDMORTGAGES

    Q. In addition to the first mortgage or assumption, was there a second mortgage?

    4%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Percent of Home Sales with Second Mortgage

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    PERCENT OF BUYERS WITH SECOND MORTGAGE

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    Q. Please indicate the type of mortgage.

    SHARE OF FHA STILL SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN 2007,

    BUT WAS THE LOWEST IN 7YEARS (FIRST MORTGAGE)

    16%

    7%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    FHA VA

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT LOW LEVEL OFFIRST-TIME BUYER?

    It signals a constrained flow of new householdsin the housing market

    Trade-up market cannot be replenished in the

    long run

    First-time buyers represent the main impulsethat drives the states homeownership rate

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    HOMEOWNERSHIP RATES

    California Vs. U.S.

    40%

    45%

    50%

    55%

    60%

    65%

    70%

    75% CA US

    SERIES: Homeownership RatesSOURCE: U.S.Census Bureau

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    BUYERS FINANCIAL PROFILE (BY AGE RANGE)

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

    Age 30 and

    under Age 30-44 Age 45-64 Age 65 and up

    Median Income $65,000 $100,000 $120,000 $100,000

    Median Price $284,000 $508,500 $495,000 $400,000

    Downpayment ($) $20,000 $62,000 $109,000 $100,000

    Downpayment (% to Sale Price) 5.0% 13.7% 20.0% 22.0%

    % of First-Time Buyers 85.4% 45.6% 13.3% 4.5%

    Diff. Between Median Income and

    Mini. Req. Income -$26,508 $8,492 $28,492 $8,492

    % Can Afford to Buy a Median-Priced

    Home 28.6% 64.8% 66.4% 59.1%

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    HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE BY AGE OFHOUSEHOLDER

    SOURCE: Census Bureau

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    MILLENNIAL HOMEOWNERSHIP FALLING

    SOURCE: Census Bureau

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    REASONS FOR BUYING

    Q. What was the single most important reason for buying the property?

    Tired of Renting, 24.7%

    Desired Larger Home,

    18.3%

    Investment/Tax

    Considerations, 15.8%

    Desired Better

    Location, 16.5%

    Change in Family

    Status, 5.0%

    Changed Jobs, 4.0%

    Foreclosure/Short

    Sale/Default, 0.5%

    Desired Smaller Home,

    3.5%

    Retirement/Move

    to Retirement

    Community, 2.8%

    Other, 8.8%

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    REASONS FOR BUYINGFIRST TIME HOMEBUYERSVS. REPEAT HOMEBUYERS

    Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?

    0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

    Tired of Renting

    Desired Larger Home

    Desired Better Location

    Change in Family Status

    Investment/ Tax Considerations

    Other

    Changed Jobs

    Retirement/Move to Retirement Community

    Foreclosure/Short Sale/Default

    Desired Smaller Home

    First-Time Buyers Repeat Buyers

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    FIRST-TIME BUYERS BOUGHT BECAUSE THEY WERETIRED OF RENTING

    Q.Was the buyer a first-time buyer?

    54%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    % Bought Because of Tired of Renting

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    FIRST-TIME BUYERS NEEDYOUR HELPCONNECT EARLY AND OFTEN

    Financial Literacy: How to manage their finances

    What about student-loan debt?

    Can my parents help me out?

    How do I increase my credit score?

    How to save for a down payment and how much?

    What programs are available? Tools to find out

    Downpayment Resource on car.org

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    DOWNPAYMENT.CAR.ORG

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    INVENTORY IMPROVING FROM LASTYEAR

    Oct 2013: 3.3 Months; Oct 2014: 3.8 Months

    Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The

    remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide

    the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question.

    0

    2

    4

    6

    810

    12

    14

    16

    18

    SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    WHY WAS/IS INVENTORY SO LOW?

    Demand Side Housing affordability was at historic highs Low rates hurt investment alternatives International buyers

    Supply Side Little new construction for last 5 years Underwater homeowners are stuck Mortgage Lock-In Effect No inventory to move up Foreclosure pipeline drying up Investors are renting instead of flipping Off-market (aka pocket) listings

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    BUYING TO RENT: WINNING INVESTMENT

    STRATEGY

    Investment to Flip

    Rental Property

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    FOR THOSE WHO PURCHASED AN INVESTMENTPROPERTY:

    Investment

    Flip 14% Flip 9% Flip 26% Flip 62%

    Rent 86% Rent 91% Rent 74% Rent 38%

    Distressed Sales

    Investment

    Flip 15% Flip 20% Flip 12% Flip 23%

    Rent 85% Rent 80% Rent 88% Rent 77%Equity Sales

    2011 2012 2013 2014

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    CA PERMITS UP BUT MORE UNITS NEEDED

    2013: 80,318 Units, Up 37.2% from 2012

    SERIES: New Housing PermitsSOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board

    0

    50000

    100000

    150000

    200000

    250000

    300000

    350000 Single Family Multi-Family

    HouseholdGrowth: 220,000-250,000/yr

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    POCKET LISTINGS

    96%

    16%

    4%

    1%

    0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

    Property listed on an MLS

    Property marketed before it was being listed

    on the MLS

    Property received an accepted offer prior to

    it being listed on the MLS

    Transaction happened on auction.com

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    9

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10 All Sellers

    YEARS OWNED HOME BEFORE SELLING

    SERIES: 2013Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    REASONS FOR SELLING

    Q. What was the single most important reason for selling the property?

    Foreclosure/Short

    Sale/Default, 6.2%

    Change in Family

    Status, 13.3%

    Retirement/Move to

    Retirement

    Community, 11.6%

    Investment/Tax

    Considerations, 10.9%

    Desired Better

    Location, 12.8%

    Desired Smaller Home,8.5%

    Changed Jobs, 7.0%

    Desired Larger Home,8.4%

    Other, 21.3%

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    SELLERS WHO SOLD BECAUSE THEIR PROPERTIES WERE

    IN DISTRESSED STATUS WERE BACK TO 2007 LEVEL

    Q. What was the single most important reason for selling/buying the property?

    6%0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    % of Homes Sold Due to Foreclosure/Short Sale/Default

    SERIES: 2013Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    SELLERS WITH NET CASH LOSS DROPPEDTO THELOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2006

    Q.What was the net cash gainor net lossto the seller as a result of this sale?

    8.2%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    35%

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Long Run Average = 12.2%

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    Q.What was the net cash gainor net lossto the seller as a result of this sale?

    $100,000

    $0

    $50,000

    $100,000

    $150,000

    $200,000

    $250,000

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    NET CASH GAINTO SELLERS ROSE AGAIN FORTHESECONDYEAR

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    NEARLY HALF OF ALL SELLERS ARE PLANNINGTO BUYANOTHER HOME ASTHE MARKET RECOVERS

    Q. Is the seller planning on purchasing another home?

    48%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    LOCATION OF SELLERS NEW HOME

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Within the same county 38% 41% 37% 45% 47% 42% 49% 49% 46% 44%

    In another county in California 23% 18% 24% 17% 21% 21% 19% 18% 20% 21%

    In another state 31% 28% 29% 27% 19% 20% 20% 22% 19% 22%Out of US 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1%

    Don't Know/Not sure 7% 11% 9% 10% 12% 16% 10% 10% 15% 13%

    Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    FORTHOSE WHO DO NOT PLANTO REPURCHASE,HERE ARE THEIR TOP REASONS:

    14%

    10%

    8%

    7%

    7%

    5%

    15%

    9%

    9%

    22%

    12%

    7%

    4%

    6%

    5%

    7%

    6%

    5%

    21%

    16%

    9%

    6%

    6%

    5%

    4%

    2%

    3%

    0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

    Seller prefers to have less financial obligation

    Seller owns another home

    Decide to live with family/friends

    Deceased

    Retirement/Moved to Retirement Facility

    Out of work/underemployment

    Seller is a lender/bank

    Lack of cash for down payment

    Poor credit background

    2012 2013 2014

    SERIES: 2014 Housing MarketSurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

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    KEY TAKEAWAYS

    Sales down from 2013, but improving in recent months;investment sales still play a role

    International buyers continue to show interest in buying in CA

    Prices up sharply, but increases slowing in most markets

    Housing affordability remains a challenge, especially to first-time buyers

    Sellers are optimistic about the housing market

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    CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

    SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATIONOF REALTORS

    SFH Resales (000s)

    % Change

    Median Price ($000s)

    % Change

    Housing Affordability Index

    30-Yr FRM

    2011

    422.6

    1.4%

    $286.0

    -6.2%

    53%

    4.5%

    2012

    439.8

    4.1%

    $319.3

    11.6%

    51%

    3.7%

    2013

    413.3

    -5.8%

    $407.2

    27.5%

    36%

    4.0%

    2014 P

    380.5

    -8.2%

    $455.0

    11.8%

    30%

    4.3%

    2015 F

    402.5

    5.8%

    $478.7

    5.2%

    27%

    4.5%

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