20131127 Mahindra & Mahindra 4

9
Also view research reports prepared by broker partners of Auerbach Grayson on Reuters, Bloomberg, FirstCall, FactSet, CapitalIQ, and TheMarkets.com IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE ON LAST PAGE Auerbach Grayson & Company, LLC 25 West 45 th Street, New York, NY 10036 Telephone: 212 557 4444 Toll Free: 1 800 31 World Operations: 212 557 4478 Fax: 212 557 9066 Web: www.agco.com RESEARCH REPORT DISTRIBUTED BY: www.agco.com PREPARED BY: November 27, 2013 Price: INR 945.00 India [Automobile Manufacturers] Bloomberg: [MM IN] Market Cap: USD 9,329.30 m Outstanding Shares: 615.89 m Six Month Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (USD m): 20.96 52 Week High/Low: INR 1,025.87 / INR 740.15 The attached research report and the excerpts from the research report below were written entirely by a broker partner of Auerbach Grayson, and not by Auerbach Grayson. Auerbach Grayson is distributing/providing this research report for your consideration. MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA HOLD THROUGH THE CHAIRMAN'S EYES Mr Mahindra shared his views on how functioning as a conglomerate provides all verticals of the group scope to benefit from synergies and varied linkages. Further, it also creates an all important bed-rock for values and core purposes for the entire group. With most businesses functioning independently, it also creates an entrepreneurial spirit among business heads, which can be nurtured by easy access to resources. His vision is to create a large mobility brand where all segments (be it two- wheelers, commercial vehicles, or UVs) come under the overall mobility ecosystem. This vision comes from past experience where both tractors and UVs benefitted from the huge commonalties in the backend. Despite the group initially starting out on a very low scale and with a lack of technology, these back-end synergies between farm and auto segments has helped them not only survive, but survive with higher return on capital than most global players. The commonalities in raw material procurement, research and development, engine design, skill set can be shared across the entire mobility ecosystem. For example, it now gets global synergies with Ssangyong (besides common sourcing, they are now jointly designing a new petrol engine). One of the key rationales for taking the group global is that it keeps them on their toes and hence helps them stay competitive, and ultimately survive. With all global players descending on India, Mr Mahindra was candid to share that the Group is definitely not safe in India if they are not competitive abroad. Hence, the plan will remain to go out and compete with the rest of the world as that is one of the best survival techniques. YE MAR Revenue (INR m) EBITDA (INR m) Net Profit (INR m) EPS (INR) PER (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Div. Yield (%) 2015E 442,918.00 64,082.00 44,103.00 67.10 14.10 9.60 1.80 2014E 389,447.00 55,687.00 38,222.00 58.20 16.20 11.20 1.60 2013A 383,566.00 53,293.00 36,344.00 53.90 17.50 11.70 1.40 2012A 313,811.00 41,613.00 29,970.00 44.00 21.50 15.30 1.30 2011A 235,641.00 36,215.00 26,870.00 39.20 24.10 17.60 1.10

Transcript of 20131127 Mahindra & Mahindra 4

  • Also view research reports prepared by broker partners of Auerbach Grayson on Reuters, Bloomberg, FirstCall, FactSet, CapitalIQ, and TheMarkets.com

    IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE ON LAST PAGE

    Auerbach Grayson & Company, LLC 25 West 45th Street, New York, NY 10036

    Telephone: 212 557 4444 Toll Free: 1 800 31 World Operations: 212 557 4478 Fax: 212 557 9066 Web: www.agco.com

    RESEARCH REPORT DISTRIBUTED BY: www.agco.com

    PREPARED BY:

    November 27, 2013

    Price: INR 945.00

    India

    [Automobile Manufacturers] Bloomberg: [MM IN]

    Market Cap: USD 9,329.30 m

    Outstanding Shares: 615.89 m

    Six Month Avg. Daily Trading Vol.

    (USD m): 20.96

    52 Week High/Low: INR 1,025.87 / INR 740.15

    The attached research report and the excerpts from the research report below were written entirely by a broker partner of Auerbach Grayson, and not by Auerbach Grayson. Auerbach Grayson is distributing/providing this

    research report for your consideration.

    MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA HOLD THROUGH THE CHAIRMAN'S EYES

    Mr Mahindra shared his views on how functioning as a conglomerate provides all verticals of the group scope to benefit from synergies and varied linkages. Further, it also creates an all important bed-rock for values and core purposes for the entire group. With most businesses functioning independently, it also creates an entrepreneurial spirit among business heads, which can be nurtured by easy access to resources.

    His vision is to create a large mobility brand where all segments (be it two-

    wheelers, commercial vehicles, or UVs) come under the overall mobility ecosystem. This vision comes from past experience where both tractors and UVs benefitted from the huge commonalties in the backend. Despite the group initially starting out on a very low scale and with a lack of technology, these back-end synergies between farm and auto segments has helped them not only survive, but survive with higher return on capital than most global players. The commonalities in raw material procurement, research and development, engine design, skill set can be shared across the entire mobility ecosystem. For example, it now gets global synergies with Ssangyong (besides common sourcing, they are now jointly designing a new petrol engine).

    One of the key rationales for taking the group global is that it keeps them on their

    toes and hence helps them stay competitive, and ultimately survive. With all global players descending on India, Mr Mahindra was candid to share that the Group is definitely not safe in India if they are not competitive abroad. Hence, the plan will remain to go out and compete with the rest of the world as that is one of the best survival techniques.

    YE MAR Revenue (INR m)

    EBITDA (INR m)

    Net Profit (INR m)

    EPS (INR)

    PER (X)

    EV/EBITDA (X)

    Div. Yield (%)

    2015E 442,918.00 64,082.00 44,103.00 67.10 14.10 9.60 1.80 2014E 389,447.00 55,687.00 38,222.00 58.20 16.20 11.20 1.60 2013A 383,566.00 53,293.00 36,344.00 53.90 17.50 11.70 1.40 2012A 313,811.00 41,613.00 29,970.00 44.00 21.50 15.30 1.30 2011A 235,641.00 36,215.00 26,870.00 39.20 24.10 17.60 1.10

  • ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING L IMITED 27 November 2013 ||||| 4FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

    MANAGEMENT INTERACTION

    Mahindra & Mahindra LimitedThrough the Chairman's eyesMahindra & Mahindra hosted a call with chairman and managing director,Mr Anand Mahindra. He shared his views on the synergistic benefits fromfunctioning as a conglomerate, competitive advantages of each vertical in aweak economic environment, and how his aspirations for globalisation ofthe group are actually more of a survival technique.

    The call reinforced our positive view on the group's ability to capitalise onthe long-term growth opportunities. We have a Hold rating on the stock asthe reasonable valuation (auto business at a P/E of 11.3x/9.8x FY14/15) isoffset by a negative view on the company's current competitive cycle in utility-vehicles.

    Key highlights from the call:

    Synergistic benefits of being a conglomerate:

    Mr Mahindra shared his views on how functioning as a conglomerate provides all verticals ofthe group scope to benefit from synergies and varied linkages. Further, it also creates an all-important bed-rock for values and core purposes for the entire group. With most businessesfunctioning independently, it also creates an entrepreneurial spirit among business heads,which can be nurtured by easy access to resources.

    Foraying into varied segments doesn't necessarily result in loss of focus:

    His vision is to create a large mobility brand where all segments (be it two-wheelers, commercialvehicles, or UVs) come under the overall mobility ecosystem. This vision comes from pastexperience where both tractors and UVs benefitted from the huge commonalties in the back-end. Despite the group initially starting out on a very low scale and with a lack of technology,these back-end synergies between farm and auto segments has helped them not only survive,but survive with higher return on capital than most global players. The commonalities in rawmaterial procurement, research and development, engine design, skill set can be sharedacross the entire mobility ecosystem. For example, it now gets global synergies with Ssangyong(besides common sourcing, they are now jointly designing a new petrol engine).

    Globalisation of the group - A unique survival technique:

    One of the key rationales for taking the group global is that it keeps them on their toes andhence helps them stay competitive, and ultimately survive. With all global players descendingon India, Mr Mahindra was candid to share that the Group is definitely not safe in India ifthey are not competitive abroad. Hence, the plan will remain to go out and compete with therest of the world as that is one of the best survival techniques.

    Weak economic cycle has thrown up opportunities for the Group:

    While the macro-economic environment is currently weak, the situation of the Mahindra Groupisn't as bad. For example, IT (Tech Mahindra) has benefitted substantially from a weakercurrency. The used car business (Mahindra First Choice) benefits in a price sensitive environmentwhere buyers are tentatively allocating large capital. Tractors remain in an orbit of its ownafter the strong monsoon (the spill-over effects of which are yet to fully reflect in demand).With a weaker currency, Indian tourism (Mahindra Holidays) benefits from a temporarydiversion in tourism from overseas travel to domestic. To some extent, even the automotivebusiness has benefitted as the weak INR acts as an informal entry barrier for the overallmanufacturing industry. Being a blue-blooded local player with high localisation levels, M&Mhas a competitive advantage against foreign original equipment manufacturers who are yetto ramp-up their vendor base in India.

    Ashish Nigam+91 22 4031 [email protected]

    Saksham Kaushal+91 22 4031 [email protected]

    Current Reco : HOLDPrevious Reco : HOLDCMP : INR945Target Price : INR960Potential Return : 2%

    Market dataSensex : 20,425Sector : AutomobilesMarket Cap (INRbn) : 582Market Cap (USDbn) : 9O/S Shares : 61652-wk HI/LO (INR) : 1026/740Avg Daily Vol ('000) : 1,152Bloomberg : MM IN

    Returns (%)1m 3m 6m 12m

    Absolute 9 17 (2) 3Relative 10 6 (6) (7)Source: Company, Antique

    Shareholding patternPromoters : 25%FII : 36%DII : 17%Others : 22%ource: Bloomberg

    ValuationFY13 FY14e FY15e

    EPS (INR) 53.9 58.2 67.1PE (x) 17.5 16.2 14.1P/BV (x) 4.1 3.5 3.0EV/EBITDA (x) 11.7 11.2 9.6Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 1.6 1.8

    Source: Bloomberg

    Price performance vs Nifty

    Source: Bloomberg

    Source: Bloomberg

    6080

    100120140

    Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13M&M NIFTY

  • ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING L IMITED 27 November 2013 ||||| 5FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

    Pockets of growth in many international markets:

    While the Group's aspirations are global, it doesn't necessarily mean that they are exposingthemselves to lower growth markets. For example, USA has been one of their fastest growingtractor markets as customers have been down-trading to relatively smaller Mahindra tractors.The alliance with CIE Automotive would bear fruit as the Spanish economy stands to emergestronger after withstanding several austerity measures. Even Ssangyong's new line of lifestylevehicles have benefitted from an evolving culture of weekend getaways among the SouthKorean youth. Hence, there are possibilities for grow in several global markets provided theright and relevant pocket of growth is recognised at an early stage.

    We maintain our Hold rating!

    While the call reinforced our positive view on the group's ability to capitalise on the long-termgrowth opportunities, we continue to have a negative view on the competitive cycle of thecompany's UV business. While their UV market share has already fallen to ~42% from ~55%,further market share loss looks inevitable. Till all competitors of strong repute haven't had theirfair shot at this relatively untapped UV space, we would refrain from fathoming a guessabout where M&M's UV market share will stabilise.

    We maintain our Hold recommendation with a target price of INR960 per share, owing toreasonable valuations - core auto business trades at a P/E of 11.3x/9.8x FY14/15e.

  • ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING L IMITED 27 November 2013 ||||| 6FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

    Our view:

    UVs find the fancy of urban buyers (doesn't help M&M)

    What really kept the urban buyer away from the SUV space historically was the lack of anapt urban SUV in the market (Mahindra Bolero and Tata Sumo never fitted the bill). However,SUV as a product has found the fancy of the urban buyer, which is evident from the successof recent launches. Unfortunately for M&M, that's where the current growth is coming from.While the Mahindra brand (which is better associated in rural regions) is superbly equippedto counter competitors in Tier II and III cities, the brand conscious urban buyer might beswayed by an equally (if not more) competent product by a foreign OEM.

    UV market share

    Source: SIAM, Antique

    Mere upgrades may not be enough

    The Duster selling upwards of 5k units/month is a concern, given that the parent brand(Renault) is probably the weakest in India among all the foreign OEMs. It also makes uswonder what kind of numbers a similar product from a formidable competitor (Maruti, Toyota,Hyundai) might do. M&M's UV market share has fallen to 42% from 55% (gained by MarutiErtiga, Renault Duster, Ford EcoSport) even as competitive pressures in the compact SUVspace are at the tip of the iceberg. Besides the Ford EcoSport and Nissan Terrano, there arecompact SUV launches expected from Maruti (XA-Alpha), VW (Taigun), Tata, Hyundai andToyota over the next 2-3 years. On the other hand, M&M's product pipeline seems moreskewed towards refreshments of existing UVs. To counter the upcoming competitor flurry,something like an XUV300 seems to be the need of the hour (mere refreshments of the Bolero,Scorpio, etc might not cut it with the urban buyer). While spy shots of the S101 (all newmonocoque chassis; sub-four metre UV) looks to be a step in the right direction, it is to beexpected only in FY16. We fear that might be too late.

    Tractors remain a ray of hope

    Notwithstanding the near-term concerns of over-capacity, the good monsoons should helpmaintain this buoyancy in tractors. For M&M in particular, should the lagging south Indianmarket recover, not only would it improve their market share (South India is their strongestmarket with a ~50% market share), but also improve their product mix and thereby margins(South India is a high horse power market).

    42.4% 47.1%55.2% 53.7% 55.6% 47.7% 42.0%

    20.3%18.5%

    13.0% 13.2% 13.3%

    8.0%5.3%

    19.7% 17.0%19.7% 20.6% 19.0%

    16.9%14.3%

    1.6% 3.3% 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 14.3% 11.2%

    6.0%17.2%

    7.1% 9.9%

    FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 YTDFY14M&M Tata Motors Toyota Others (Ford/Chevy) Renault Maruti

  • ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING L IMITED 27 November 2013 ||||| 7FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

    Valuations/tractors the sole support to the stock Maintain Hold rating!

    The auto business is facing issues which aren't exactly cyclical. Further market share loss looksinevitable. Till all competitors of strong repute haven't had their fair shot at this relativelyuntapped UV space, we would refrain from fathoming a guess about where M&M's UVmarket share stabilises. We maintain our Hold recommendation with a target price of INR960per share owing to reasonable valuations - core auto business trades at a P/E of 11.3x/9.8xFY14/15e.

    SOTP ValuationSOTP Methodology Value (INRm) Value per share

    Core Auto Business (M&M + MVML) A 10x FY15e Core EPS 417,610 636

    Value of Key Subsidiaries & Investments: (pro-rated) Stake

    Ssangyong 70% Market Value 53,191 81

    Tech Mahindra 48% Market Value 100,722 153

    Mahindra Forgings 53% Market Value 2,197 3

    M&M Financial Services 58% Market Value 85,374 130

    Mahindra Lifespaces 51% Market Value 8,318 13

    Mahindra Holidays & Resorts 75% Market Value 16,114 25

    Total value of Key Subsidiaries & Investments 265,916 405

    Discount

    Holding company discount 20% 53,183 81

    Net Value of Key Subsidiaries & Investments B 212,733 324

    SOTP Value of Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd A + B 630,342 960Source: RBI, Antique

  • ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING L IMITED 27 November 2013 ||||| 8FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

    FinancialsProfit and loss account (INRm)Year ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eRevenues 235,641 313,811 383,566 389,447 442,918

    Expenses 199,426 272,198 330,273 333,760 378,836

    EBITDA 36,215 41,613 53,293 55,687 64,082

    Depreciation & amortisation 4,739 6,699 8,178 9,212 10,772

    EBIT 31,476 34,913 45,115 46,474 53,309

    Interest expense 1,477 2,874 2,964 3,268 3,431

    Other income 4,272 4,735 5,697 6,433 7,398

    Extraordinary Items 1,175 1,083 906 - -

    Profit before tax 35,445 37,858 48,755 49,640 57,277

    Taxes incl deferred taxation 8,575 7,887 12,410 11,417 13,174

    Profit after tax 26,870 29,970 36,344 38,222 44,103

    Adjusted profit after tax 25,696 28,888 35,438 38,222 44,103

    Adjusted EPS (INR) 39.2 44.0 53.9 58.2 67.1

    Balance sheet (INRm)Year ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eShare Capital 3,276 3,285 3,285 3,285 3,285

    Reserves & Surplus 99,824 119,574 147,268 173,961 204,998

    Networth 103,100 122,859 150,553 177,246 208,283

    Debt 33,864 42,824 41,523 43,576 45,741

    Capital Employed 136,964 165,683 192,076 220,822 254,024

    Gross Fixed Assets 62,277 94,277 108,107 128,107 158,107

    Accumulated Depreciation 32,124 38,823 47,001 56,214 66,986

    Capital work in progress 25,019 13,362 16,362 21,362 16,362

    Net Assets 55,172 68,816 77,468 93,255 107,483

    Investments 79,662 94,872 108,940 122,013 140,315

    Current Assets, Loans & Advances

    Inventory 19,121 29,150 30,736 32,009 36,404

    Debtors 12,926 18,121 20,668 21,340 24,269

    Cash & Bank balance 6,149 12,909 18,227 12,974 14,117

    Loans & advances and others 34,538 35,054 41,306 44,049 46,977

    Current Liabilities & Provisions

    Liabilities 50,134 68,756 78,373 76,955 85,648

    Provisions 16,926 18,593 19,339 20,306 22,336

    Net Current Assets 5,673 7,885 13,225 13,111 13,783

    Deferred tax (assets)/liabilities 3,544 5,890 7,557 7,557 7,557

    Application of Funds 136,964 165,683 192,076 220,822 254,024

    Per share dataYear ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eNo. of shares (m) 655.2 656.9 656.9 656.9 656.9

    BVPS (INR) 157.4 187.0 229.2 269.8 317.1

    CEPS (INR) 48.2 55.8 67.8 72.2 83.5

    DPS (INR) 10.8 12.5 13.0 15.0 17.0

    Margins (%)Year ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eEBITDA 15.4 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.5

    EBIT 13.4 11.1 11.8 11.9 12.0

    PAT 10.9 9.2 9.2 9.8 10.0

    Source: Company, Antique

    Key assumptionsYear ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eUVs & UV Pick-ups 274,793 354,967 436,928 405,395 446,489

    Total Auto Volumes 377,063 483,246 563,373 521,533 573,794

    Tractor Volumes 213,653 235,452 223,885 265,304 297,140

    Total Volumes 590,716 718,698 787,258 786,837 870,934

    Growth:

    Auto Volumes 26.4 28.2 16.6 (7.4) 10.0

    Tractor Volumes 22.3 10.2 (4.9) 18.5 12.0

    Total Volumes 24.9 21.7 9.5 (0.1) 10.7

    Cash flow statement (INRm)Year ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eEBIT 31,476 34,913 45,115 46,474 53,309

    Depreciation & amortisation 4,739 6,699 8,178 9,212 10,772

    Interest expense 1,477 2,874 2,964 3,268 3,431

    (Inc)/Dec in working capital (8,498) 4,548 (21) (5,139) 471

    Tax paid (7,617) (5,541) (12,410) (11,417) (13,174)

    CF from operating activities 21,275 41,702 41,768 39,130 51,378

    Capital expenditure (24,891) (20,343) (16,830) (25,000) (25,000)

    Inc/(Dec) in investments (15,682) (15,210) (14,069) (13,073) (18,302)

    Income from investments 4,272 4,735 5,697 6,433 7,398

    CF from investing activities (28,721) (31,880) (25,202) (31,639) (35,904)

    Inc/(Dec) in debt 5,062 8,961 (1,302) 2,053 2,165

    Others (7,423) (9,149) (9,992) (11,529) (13,067)

    CF from financing activities (3,838) (3,062) (14,257) (12,744) (14,332)

    Net cash flow (11,283) 6,760 5,318 (5,253) 1,143

    Opening balance 17,432 6,149 12,909 18,227 12,974

    Closing balance 6,149 12,909 18,227 12,974 14,117

    Growth indicators (%)Year ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eRevenue 26.7 33.2 22.2 1.5 13.7

    EBITDA 22.5 14.9 28.1 4.5 15.1

    PAT 28.7 11.5 21.3 5.2 15.4

    EPS 14.3 12.1 22.7 7.9 15.4

    Valuation (x)Year ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eP/E 24.1 21.5 17.5 16.2 14.1

    P/BV 6.0 5.1 4.1 3.5 3.0

    EV/EBITDA 17.6 15.3 11.7 11.2 9.6

    EV/Sales 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.4

    Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8

    Core Auto P/E (incl MVML) 16.6 14.9 12.1 11.3 9.8

    Core Auto EV/EBIDTA 11.8 10.2 7.7 7.4 6.3

    Core Auto EV/Sales 1.8 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9

    Financial ratiosYear ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eRoE 24.9 23.5 23.5 21.6 21.2

    RoCE 31.9 26.0 28.9 26.5 25.5

    Debt/Equity (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

    EBIT/Interest (x) 21.3 12.1 15.2 14.2 15.5

    Source: Company Antique

  • Antique Stock Broking LimitedNirmal, 2nd Floor, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021.Tel. : +91 22 4031 3444 Fax : +91 22 4031 3445

    www.antiquelimited.com

    Important Disclaimer:

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    Executive David S. Grayson Managing Director 1.212.453.3553 [email protected] Charles Gushee Managing Director, Global Sales 1.212.453.3511 [email protected] Garth Ballantyne Managing Director, Global Trading 1.212.557.4444 [email protected] Frank Muller Managing Director, Global Operations 1.212.453.3518 [email protected] Sales Colin Bell Director Africa, Middle East, South Asia 1.212-453-3507 [email protected] Bob Jenney African Equity Sales 1.212-453-3510 [email protected] Erik Lam Asian Equities 1.212-453-3570 [email protected] Duke Shin Asian Equity Sales 1.212.453.3528 [email protected] Sondra Sondak Asian Sales 1.212-453-3509 [email protected] Simon Mandel Emerging Europe & CIS 1.212.453.3571 [email protected] Richard Ross Global Tech Analyst 1.212.453.3575 [email protected] Chris Dodson Japanese Equities 1.212.453.3541 [email protected] Elena Castro LATAM / Western Europe 1.212.453.3540 [email protected] Michael Daoud Africa & Middle East 1.212.453.3586 [email protected] Kenneth Pryce Swiss Equities 1.212-453-3526 [email protected] Briggs Fraser Swiss Equities 1.212-453-3548 [email protected] Irem Duzovalilar Turkish Sales 1.212.453.3559 [email protected] Ugur Sarman Turkish Equities 1.212.453.3589 [email protected] Srikanth Ramanathan South Asian Equities 1.212.453.3561 [email protected] Nikhil Bhatnagar South Asian Equities 1.212.453.3573 [email protected] Stephan Lueck Austrian & German Sales 1.212.453.3538 [email protected] Trading Geoffrey Gimber Asian Trading 1.212.557.4444 [email protected] Angela Valeroso Asian Trading 1.212.557.4444 [email protected] David Sweet Asian Trading 1.212.557.4444 [email protected] Mike LoPiano Asian Trading 1.212.557.4444 [email protected] Pete Peters Asian Trading 1.212.557.4444 [email protected] Danielle Simon EMEA/ Western Europe 1.212.557.4444 [email protected] Steven Pollicino EMEA/ Western Europe 1.212.557.4444 [email protected] John Krase Emerging Market 1.212.557.4444 [email protected] John Geron US Equities Trading 1.212.557.4444 [email protected] Alan Kostrinsky Global Express 1.212.453.3525 [email protected]

    Trading Desk Hours (New York Time) Sunday 4:00 pm to Friday 5:00 pm (24 Hours) * After trading hours, please call 1-212-557-4444 and you will automatically be connected to a trader.

    Research Kevin Keefe Research Coordinator 1.212.453.3549 [email protected] Information Services Ismael Sadek Info. Technology 1.212.453.3512 [email protected] Settlement 1.212.557.4444 [email protected]

    RESEARCH REPORT DISTRIBUTED BY: www.agco.com

    Page 1DisclosureHighlightsTable Title: Price/Rating AnalysisTable Title: Revenue/Earnings Information

    Page 2OverviewTable Title: Price/Rating AnalysisKey highlights from the call:Table Title: Market dataTable Title: ValuationTable Title: Returns (%)Table Title: Shareholding patternGraphics Title: Price performance vs Nifty

    Page 3Pockets of growth in many international markets:Price/Rating Analysis

    Page 4Our view:UVs find the fancy of urban buyers (doesn't help M&M)Graphics Title: UV market shareMere upgrades may not be enoughTractors remain a ray of hope

    Page 5Valuations/tractors the sole support to the stockTable Title: SOTP Valuation

    Page 6Table Title: Financials

    Page 7Disclosure

    Page 8Disclosure (CONT)

    Page 9Broker/Analyst Information