2013 Purchase Path Study: Last Gasp for Print Mags...2013 Purchase Path Study: Last Gasp for Print...
Transcript of 2013 Purchase Path Study: Last Gasp for Print Mags...2013 Purchase Path Study: Last Gasp for Print...
2013 Purchase Path Study: Last Gasp for Print Mags With a few rare exceptions,
new-car shoppers have turned
their backs on print versions of
consumer general interest
magazines in large and
perhaps fatal numbers.
According to the latest CNW
Research Purchase Path
Study, only 3.5 percent of new-
car intenders used a print
2.25.13
Jitters Index
0.56%
edition of a consumer magazine to assist in the selection of a new
car or truck. That’s a nearly 60 percent drop from just the year
before and only a fraction of the number in the pre-recession
Purchase Path study.
And It’s Even Worse
The bad news doesn’t stop at that. Of those who did use a print
edition of a consumer magazine as their primary source of auto info
before buying a car or truck, the vast majority – better than 80
percent – said the information gleaned from print mag advertising
was only moderately helpful. In past Purchase Path studies, a
majority historically said such ads were “Extremely” or “Very”
helpful.
While a large percentage of magazine readers are now visiting
consumer mag websites, the large increase over 2011 was not
enough to offset the print-version decline. Overall, consumer
magazine ads slipped 21 percent.
Specialty print magazines ranging from Classic Boats to
Woodworking continue to see strong advertising support among
new-car intenders, but even those are slipping, according to the
Wave 14 Purchase Path study. (continued next page)
SAMPLE: PRIMARY SOURCE AUTO INFO cy11 cy12 Percent
Average All
Stages
Average All
Stages Change
TV Ad 8.67% 7.49% -13.61%
Network (NBC, CBS, ABC, Fox) 5.72% 3.15% -44.88%
Cable 2.95% 4.34% 47.04%
Use Mobile 16.28%
Consumer Mag Ads 9.33% 7.38% -20.88%
Print 8.32% 3.46% -58.40%
Online 1.01% 3.92% 287.31%
Use Mobile 13.47%
Friend/Relative 8.36% 9.29% 11.11%
Use Mobile 42.95%
Business Assoc. 4.61% 3.82% -17.03%
Use Mobile 15.25%
Dealer Brochure 0.50% 0.37% -26.57%
Use Mobile 2.02%
Consumer Reports 9.83% 10.26% 4.29%
Print 6.91% 4.77% -31.02%
Online 2.92% 5.49% 87.82%
Use Mobile 33.64%
Local Newspaper Advertising 8.75% 7.66% -12.44%
Print 3.56% 2.66% -25.41%
Online 5.19% 5.00% -3.53%
Use Mobile 12.48%
(continued from previous page)
Bucking the trend and remaining king of the auto-info hill is Consumer
Reports which had a 4 percent overall gain in Primary Source readers
even though the shift from print to online is at work here, as well.
Showing the way of successfully switching readers from print to online
are automotive magazines. While print Auto Mag ads were down 28
percent as a primary source, the online variant was up 57.4 percent for
an overall increase of nearly 11 percent. More interactive online articles
along with online-directed print promotions are working.
TV Nets Take a Hit
The network advertising as a primary source of information also took
a significant hit in the latest study, falling 45 percent vs. the previous
year. And while “cable” networks ranging from the History Channel to
Speed Channel saw a significant 47 percent increase, it wasn’t enough to
keep the overall TV Ad numbers from dipping 13.6 percent.
Automaker, Dealer, 3rd Party Sites Up
Going straight to the horses mouth seems to be one adage new-
vehicle shoppers are heeding.
Automaker websites were up 4.8 percent; dealer sites, up 3.75
percent and third-party sites such as Edmunds, up 8.7 percent.
Supporting those increases are consumers using mobile electronic
devices to collect new-car data. For example, of those consumer who
used a manufacturer website as a primary source of information, a full
third did so using a mobile device.
CONTEXT: At difference stages in the purchase funnel, print still is a
viable way to go. For example, newspaper ads remain the go-to source
of local pricing information among consumers. Depending on budget and
message, print magazines have a role in the buying process. But that
role is diminishing.
Print versions of general interest consumer magazines are near
death. TV ads are struggling to hold on and an increasing share of auto
info is being sought on a mobile device. While those have been the
predictions for a number of years, this is complete validation of the
theory. In effect, 2012 was the actual turning point in buyer attitudes.
Page 2… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary
cy11 cy12 Percent
Average All
Stages
Average All
Stages Change
Auto Article (any source) 4.87% 5.01% 2.85% Use Mobile 22.62%
Radio Ad 1.49% 1.52% 2.11% Use Mobile 32.99%
Manufacturer Websites 8.18% 8.57% 4.82% Use Mobile 33.04%
Dealer Sites 3.59% 3.72% 3.75% Use Mobile 14.67%
Other Online Sites (3rd Party --
Edmonds, Portals, Branded) 9.86% 10.72% 8.73% Use Mobile 22.93%
Online Advertising 1.48% 1.61% 8.79% Use Mobile 5.51%
Auto Show 1.24% 1.32% 6.92% Use Mobile 8.58%
Auto Mag Ad 1.82% 2.02% 10.96%
Print 1.00% 0.72% -27.69%
Online 0.83% 1.30% 57.41% Use Mobile 43.71%
Auto Buyers' Guide 4.62% 4.78% 3.49%
Print 2.29% 1.72% -24.92%
Online 2.34% 3.07% 31.31% Use Mobile 32.72%
Special Events 3.09% 2.85% -7.64% Use Mobile 2.24%
National Newspaper Advertising 0.34% 0.30% -12.66%
Print 0.11% 0.06% -49.37%
Online 0.23% 0.24% 5.70% Use Mobile 30.32%
Social Sites 3.62% 4.39% 21.20% Use Mobile 65.65%
Other 5.76% 6.92% 20.11% 100.00% 100.00%
For a complete breakdown of Primary Information Sources including the by-stage data, see PurchasePathOnline.com
3.16% 13.0% 0.7%
Page 3… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary
Closing Ratio Closing Ratio
4.38%
February Not So Hot, but One Less Selling Day Doesn’t Appear to Thwart Some Gains
It could well be a “wash” compared to February of 2012 – a Leap Year – with total sales slightly ahead of last February, perhaps hitting a 14.9
to 15.2 million True Delivery Rate.
Same store sales, through the 20th of February, are up around 3 percent on a 0.7 percent gain in floor traffic. Closing ratios are up about 4.4
percent. None of those numbers are particularly stellar, but still in positive ground.
Floor Traffic Missing ‘Lookers’
The gain in same-store sales even with the small increase in Floor Traffic can be traced to the number of people who simply aren’t window
shopping cars and trucks. The Floor Traffic number is made up of people who actually are planning to buy a vehicle within 30 days. That’s
significant in two ways:
1. Shoppers who are ready to buy typically represent only a quarter to a third of floor traffic. The rest are shopping and making comparisons
between their top three or four choices of potential acquisitions.
2. This decline in “lookers” is a bad sign for sales in two to three months. Most of these early comparison shoppers return to market as buyers
at some point a few months down the line. Buying patterns are fed by these early shoppers.
These points are clearly seen in the Pent Up Demand stats for the first 20 days of February. Of those who are delaying a purchase, 94.6
percent say they still plan to make a new-car acquisition – that’s down from January 95.4 percent and Decembers 95.5 percent. The average
delay in that acquisition jumped from 3.5 months in January to nearly 4 months in February and higher than the same month a year ago.
41.00% CONTEXT: Blip or Trend? We lean toward this being a blip rather than the beginning of a trend. Concerns
about government shutdowns, rising fuel and food prices and taxes are a drag on the industry hitting 16 million
units, but not enough of a drag on the industry to keep it from hitting 15.2 million in 2013.
Sub-Prime Approval
34.6% Doc 140m Pent Up Dmnd Pent Up Dmnd 12 v 11 Avg. Delay Avg. Delay
Mo. '13 Mo. '12 Change Mo. '13 Mo. '12 % Change Still Plan Acq
Jan '13 94,250 106,300 88.7% 3.52 3.92 -10.2% 95.37%
Feb 118,250 109,500 108.0% 3.97 3.87 2.6% 94.62%
Page 4… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary
Import vs. Detroit 3 Intenders’ Confidence Meld
JITTERS INDEX
Fed Gas Child’s Job Day to Day Condition of Food Local Jitters
Taxes Prices Edu Stability Needs Investments Prices Taxes Index
Vs Previous Mo. 0.20% 3.04% -0.46% 0.52% 0.27% -1.28% 1.13% 0.10% 0.56%
Vs Mo. ‘12 6.64% 4.70% -16.02% -5.39% 2.72% -4.95% 5.81% 0.51% 0.94%
CNW’s ongoing Confidence Index once showed Import Intenders to be far more upbeat
than their Big Three intender counterparts. In January, ’08, for example, the Index had
import intenders at nearly 154 (with 1986 equal to 100) while Detroit Three intenders
were in the 130 range. That was a variance of nearly 18 percent.
In January of this year, however, Import Intenders and Detroit Three intenders were
virtually the same with a variance of less than 1 percent.
Variance Gap Swings In Both Directions
While there are a series of economic, personal, educational and political reasons for
the differences between import and Detroit intenders, such as slightly higher education
levels for import intenders, more stable jobs and somewhat higher incomes, Mr. Obama
Confidence Import Domestic Variance
January '08 142.81 153.79 130.64 17.72%
February 134.56 144.35 120.36 19.93%
March 122.09 123.78 120.22 2.96%
April 126.81 125.77 127.94 -1.70%
May 126.83 126.41 127.62 -0.95%
June 121.34 124.81 118.34 5.47%
July 117.68 121.37 114.79 5.73%
August 119.59 113.24 120.81 -6.27%
September 120.28 112.87 121.16 -6.84%
October 111.03 118.74 102.56 15.78%
November 109.66 117.24 101.37 15.66%
December 103.29 117.69 90.14 30.56%
January '09 101.53 115.35 88.73 30.00%
February 98.38 111.26 87.49 27.17%
March 102.54 114.78 83.48 37.49%
April 103.67 114.82 84.15 36.45%
May 106.26 114.58 86.29 32.78%
June 102.43 109.63 82.68 32.60%
July 104.84 102.03 80.69 26.45%
August 101.01 102.19 89.43 14.27%
September 97.48 98.61 86.34 14.21%
October 96.05 95.13 96.22 -1.13%
November 93.11 92.69 93.58 -0.95%
December 97.26 95.81 98.83 -3.06%
January '10 98.53 95.92 99.73 -3.82%
February 95.34 97.67 92.17 5.97%
March 97.67 100.03 93.81 6.63%
April 98.02 100.06 94.62 5.75%
May 97.45 98.34 95.17 3.33%
June 93.17 94.01 92.25 1.91%
July 93.22 92.14 93.74 -1.71%
August 90.48 89.13 90.9 -1.95%
September 86.15 85.32 86.71 -1.60%
October 84.72 83.35 86.81 -3.99%
November 87.92 85.11 89.92 -5.35%
December 88.17 88.02 88.93 -1.02%
January '11 88.23 87.41 89.62 -2.47%
February 88.76 87.04 89.96 -3.25%
March 89.84 87.09 90.93 -4.22%
April 85.82 83.59 84.76 -1.38%
May 84.07 83.66 84.57 -1.08%
June 82.58 81.34 83.77 -2.90%
July 79.41 81.22 78.62 3.31%
August 77.24 78.07 76.21 2.44%
September 74.29 75.61 73.18 3.32%
October 72.51 74.62 70.47 5.89%
November 79.46 79.22 79.9 -0.85%
December 81.27 80.34 81.96 -1.98%
Confid. Import Domestic Variance
Jan '12 82.64 81.49 83.01 -1.83%
Feb 83.14 81.87 82.56 -0.84%
Mar 83.22 81.72 82.83 -1.34%
Apr 82.45 81.97 83.04 -1.29%
May 79.46 77.16 80.32 -3.93%
June 78.91 79.44 77.15 2.97%
July 76.28 75.18 76.39 -1.58%
August 74.47 74.27 74.51 -0.3%
September 73.69 73.12 74.81 -2.3%
October 73.95 73.29 75.68 -3.2%
November 74.18 74.29 73.55 1.0%
December 75.81 76.62 74.62 2.7%
Jan '13 76.39 76.71 76.04 0.9%
becoming President saw the largest
variance toward import intenders
reaching as high as 37.5 percent in
March of 2009. No such bump took
place after the 2012 election.
Overall Confidence Weak
Among potential new-car buyers, the
CNW Confidence scores are extremely
weak and only recently began to
increase slightly.
What impact on vehicle sales?
Expect only modest gains this year with
replacement out of necessity being the
lynchpin of any increases.
Anticipated Feb Actual Feb % Chng YTD YTD % Chng
Document 106m cy13 cy12 13v12 cy2013 cy2012 13v12
Franchised
Dealer Sales 714,000 669,543 6.6% 1,545,177 1,395,692 10.7%
Independent
Dealer Sales 694,000 669,420 3.7% 1,522,718 1,378,604 10.5%
Casual (Private)
Sales 590,900 653,460 -9.6% 1,285,975 1,421,545 -9.5%
Total Sales 1,998,900 1,992,423 0.3% 4,353,870 4,195,841 3.8%
Page 5… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary
February Up a Touch vs. Leap Year Considering the strength of the used-car market a year ago and the
extra day due to Leap Year, February’s slight projected increase –
about 0.3 percent – is a decent showing.
In all, the used-car industry should get to the near 2,000,000 mark
with Franchised Dealers leading the pack.
As of the 20th of February, Franchised Dealers were ahead of last
year by 6.6 percent, putting them on track to selling around 714,000
units.
Independent dealers, during the same time frame, were up about
3.7 percent and closing in on nearly 700,000 sales.
Private Party continues to be weaker than the dealer body, down
9.6 percent in the opening days of this month in large part due to a shift
in consumer behavior vs. a year ago.
In 2012, dealers were cautious about taking vehicles in on trade and
simultaneously offering low-book for those trades. Many used-car
sellers turned to AutoTrader, craigslist and other private party outlets to
sell their cars and trucks.
This year, as dealers continue to build their used-car inventories,
both Franchised and Independents are skimming the cream of the crop
for their lots leaving private party sales mostly older, less desirable
models.
Add that franchised and independent dealers are finding financing
for lower credit-score shoppers and the shift becomes even more
logical. CNW still expects private party sales to rebound in the second
quarter, however.
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%Used % Under FICO 670
540
560
580
600
620
640
Jan'11
Mar May July Sept Nov Jan'12
Mar May July Sept Nov Jan'13
Used FICO Score (Avg.)
Page 6… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary
Franchised Independent Franchised Franchised Independent Independent
Document 107m Asking Price Asking Price Trans Price % of Asking Trans Price % of Asking
Jan. '13 $11,336 $9,867 $10,558 93.14% $9,158 92.81%
Feb '13 $11,321 $9,892 $10,562 93.21% $9,174 92.74%
Feb. '12 $11,653 $10,516 $11,090 95.17% $9,784 93.04%
Mar '12 $11,826 $10,592 $11,254 95.16% $9,874 93.22%
Apr ’12 $11,507 $10,216 $10,958 95.23% $9,576 93.74%
May '12 $12,119 $9,987 $11,296 93.21% $9,071 90.83%
June '12 $11,684 $9,937 $10,802 92.45% $9,069 91.27%
July '12 $12,136 $9,842 $11,185 92.16% $8,943 90.87%
Aug '12 $12,103 $9,849 $11,138 92.02% $8,936 90.73%
Sept '12 $11,458 $10,172 $11,021 96.19% $9,598 94.36%
Oct '12 $11,419 $9,872 $10,553 92.42% $9,019 91.36%
Nov. 12 $11,583 $9,991 $10,894 94.05% $9,334 93.42%
Dec. '12 $11,186 $10,148 $10,654 95.24% $9,452 93.14%
Percent Change Yr over Yr -3.35% -6.92% -5.40% -2.12% -7.42% -0.54%
Month Over Month Price -0.13% 0.25% -0.06% 0.08% 0.18% -0.08%
Used Prices Continue to be Weak
Used vehicle prices trailed year-ago for both franchised and
independent dealers in the opening days of February with little sign of
retail prices rebounding.
Franchised dealers were only able to get 93 percent of their asking
prices for used cars and trucks, down from last year’s 95 percent.
Independent dealers were also down vs. year ago – 92.7 percent vs.
93.0 percent.
Days’ Supply Up
Days’ Supply of used vehicles also inched upward, topping 50 days
for only the second time in more than two years. That’s 13 percent
higher than February a year ago, but well within the ideal range.
The supply of cars vs. trucks continues to narrow with a slightly
higher figure for cars.
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
Used Vehicle Days' Supply
January was a good month for both new-car sales (up 14 percent) and
fleet deliveries (up 7.3 percent) Total value of fleet sales hit $11.4
billion with an average per-vehicle value of $29,447 (excluding
upfitting).
Government fleets continue to decline, however, off more than 17
percent compared to January a year ago.
On the positive side, Small, Medium and Large Business sales
were up from 7 to 29 percent.
Pickups for Business
The full-2012 tabulation for the pickup truck market showed
Appearance Buyers continuing to make up a smaller share of sales.
These are people, mostly male, who acquire a pickup for the “urban
cowboy” look rather than for any actual use.
The rebound in contractor pickup buyers is heartening because
these represent a good bellwether of the overall economy, particularly
the construction and home-improvement or home-maintenance
trades.
RV Towers as new-pickup buyers continue to decline as a share of
total sales in large part because of higher gas prices keeping these
folks off the road making a new rig less important.
Page 7… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary
Fleet-Commercial Sales Up 7 Percent cy13 Jan
All Sales 1,042,721
Percent Change v Previous Year 14.2%
Fleet and Commercial Use 37.11%
Total Fleet (Monthly Approximates) 386,954
Percent Change v Previous Year 7.3%
FLEET COMMERCIAL VALUE -- Per Unit $29,447
FLEET COMMERCIAL VALUE -- Total $Bllns $11.39
Percent Change v Previous Year 16.04%
Government Fleet 15,537
Share Gov't of Total Sales 1.49%
Percent Change v Previous Year -17.4%
Small Business Fleet and Commercial Use 46,505
Share Small Business of Total Sales 4.46%
Percent Change v Previous Year 29.3%
Medium Business Fleet and Commercial Use 95,096
Share Medium Business of Total Sales 9.12%
Percent Change v Previous Year 7.2%
Large Business Fleet, Daily Rental, Commer. 249,627
Share Large Business of Total Sales 23.94%
Percent Change v Previous Year 14.9%
Primary Use
Sales Share Appearance Contractor Fleet RV Tow Farm/Rnch
cy1985 10.5% 51.7% 11.8% 5.2% 20.8%
cy2001 28.1% 36.9% 11.1% 13.6% 10.3%
cy2002 27.4% 38.1% 10.6% 13.5% 10.4%
cy2003 26.4% 38.8% 10.2% 13.2% 11.4%
cy2004 24.8% 39.7% 10.9% 13.3% 11.3%
cy2005 21.7% 40.2% 12.4% 12.6% 13.1%
cy2006 19.1% 41.8% 12.7% 11.8% 14.5%
Cy2007 16.2% 42.6% 14.7% 11.6% 14.9%
Cy2008 13.1% 39.4% 19.2% 6.1% 22.2%
cy2009 8.6% 43.1% 19.3% 5.5% 23.5%
cy2010 6.7% 45.1% 19.6% 6.8% 21.8%
cy2011 6.5% 47.9% 20.4% 6.3% 18.9%
cy2012 5.3% 49.8% 20.6% 6.1% 18.2%
Big Six: Lion’s Share of Fleet/Commercial
The Big Six automakers – GM, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, Nissan, Honda
– made up 48.5 percent of all fleet-commercial sales in January
compared to 47.2 percent a year ago. Neither of those figures
compares with the huge 73 percent share for the Big Six in January of
2010, the depths of the recession when fleet-commercial sales were
one of the only ways to stay alive when consumers weren’t in the
market.
Low-key Honda takes the gloves off in a new commercial against four major
rivals of its new model Accord, even as four agencies vie for Honda's (and
Acura's) ad account.
The 2013 Accord model is all new and the ninth generation of the iconic car
that first bowed in the US in 1976.
The spot touts how consumers rate the Accord tops after test driving it against
the Toyota Camry, Nissan Altima, Ford Fusion and Hyundai Sonata. Not a single
GM model was part of the test, showing Honda and Car and Driver believe Accord
shoppers don't cross shop with Chevrolet's Malibu.
For the effort, the American Honda Motor brand teamed with Car and Driver
magazine, which tapped 1,200 of its readers in four cities to test the Accord and
the other major mid-size cars over four weekends.
The consumers rave about the new Accord's responsive handling, fit and finish,
technology, suspension and better package. You can watch the commercial here
It's refreshing to see conservative Honda kick up some dust with the competition,
even if this ad isn't getting a lot of TV air time or eyeballs on YouTube. Honda took Honda / Car and Driver Competitive Test Drive "Opinions"
Page 8… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary December 2012
Jean Halliday’s
it on the chin from loyalists and the automotive press when it released the outgoing Accord model in 2008. That eighth-generation
Accord was broadly panned for being too big and not particularly attractive, among other things.
To Honda's credit, it responded to the hub-bub, even doing a mid-cycle freshening for the Accord's 2011 model year including a
different front grille, new rear deck lid, and new front bumpers.
But the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan hurt Honda along with the other Japanese transplants here. Their 2011 US vehicle
sales suffered as a result, opening the door that year for Detroit and the South Koreans to boost sales. The Japanese transplants really
started to rebound in 2012, with Honda posting the first 300,000-plus year for the Accord since 2009 Honda is aiming for 350,000 units
here this year for the Accord, which should make for an interesting 2013 in the hyper-competitive mid-size segment. Not one brand will
be in cruise control.
Honda Teams with ‘Car and Driver’
Honda Ad Agency ‘Fighting for its Life’ in 4-Way Review
Page 9… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary December 2012
Speaking of competition, Santa Monica-based RPA, Honda's longtime ad agency, is fighting for its life,
literally, defending its biggest account. RPA's sister, rp&, handles Acura- also up for grabs.
Michael Accavitti (left), VP of marketing for both brands at American Honda, pushed for the review at the
end of 2012, a little over a year after his arrival via Chrysler Group and Cisco Systems.
The surprise isn’t that a review was called. It’s that it has taken this long to happen.
That's because other than a few bright advertising stars in recent years, including the boffo Super Bowl
commercials for both Honda and Acura in 2012, the work hasn’t exactly set the world on fire.
You can't totally blame the agencies either, since both the Honda and Acura clients approved the so-so
ads for years.
One school of thought believes this review is just a wake-up call for RPA and that the independent agency
will shake up its staff to keep both creative and media accounts. Incumbents DO sometimes prevail in these
pitches, but not usually.
Honda and its review consultant, Roth Associates in New York are said to have culled the list of 7 semi-finalists to 4 finalists for
creative: RPA; IPG's Martin Agency in Richmond, Va.; and MDC Partners' 72andSunny Martin certainly has some car advertising
chops. The shop handled Saab Cars USA for 3 years until losing it in early 2001 and shared the Mercedes-Benz account with Scali,
McCabe, Sloves for 5 years until 1997.
The media finalists are reportedly RPA; Publicis Groupe's MediaVest; Omnicom Group's PHD and indie Horizon Media.
Stay tuned until the end of the first quarter, when Honda says it will have a decision. – Jean Halliday
1.42 1.82
2.04 2.46
3.23 3.46
3.73 3.88
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
Full 09 Full 10 Full 11 Full 12
No. of Brands on Shopping List
Honda Car
Honda Truck
Why a Review? Losing Loyalty Edge
Just three years ago, when new-car shoppers had a
Honda car on their list of vehicles, there was
effectively only one and a half other brands in serious
consideration.
Last year, that figure continued to climb and hit
nearly 2.5 alternative brands.
For a major competitor – Hyundai – the figure has
dropped from 4.3 to 3.4 in the same time frame.
(Data from 2012 Purchase Path Study)
Honda Car 1.42 1.82 2.04 2.46
Honda Truck 3.23 3.46 3.73 3.88
Hyundai Car 4.33 3.85 3.56 3.43
Hyundai Truck 3.68 3.37 3.16 3.12
Brands on Shopping List: 2009-12
0.20%
11.48%
12.64%
1.94%
Page 10... CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary February 2013
Entry Level Utility Vehicle
Budget Car Economy Car
Electric Car
January new-car sales share by market segment pretty much is mimicking January of 2012. Budget cars continue to decline
as a share of total sales while many of the luxury vehicle segments are ahead.
As pointed out elsewhere in this issue, full-size pickups are getting stronger on the back of work-truck buyers. In January,
full-size pickups collected nearly 12 percent of sales compared to under 11 percent a year ago.
Incentives on More Models
While the overall incentive spending has shrunk, it’s interesting to note that the number of vehicles carrying some sort of
incentive continues to rise. As the table (right) shows, 92 percent of all vehicles purchased carried some sort of spiff in
January. That’s up from 88 percent a year ago and 75.7 percent in January of ‘10. In those previous years, small and
economy cars didn’t need large incentives. Fuel economy and low price were enough. That’s not the case any longer.
Smaller Vehicles Hold Onto Share Through Incentives on More Models
Jan ‘12: 2.09% Jan ‘12: 12.54%
Jan ‘12: 12.09% Jan ‘12: 0.14%
J09 79.5%
F 80.2%
M 82.7%
A 82.5%
M 81.4%
J 83.7%
J 80.2%
A 76.6%
S 78.9%
O 77.5%
N 74.4%
D 76.8%
J10 75.7%
F 76.2%
M 78.8%
A 79.4%
M 79.7%
J 80.1%
Jul 81.8%
Aug 83.1%
Sep 84.6%
Oct 85.2%
Nov 84.2%
Dec 83.4%
Jan '11 83.6%
Feb 83.9%
Mar 84.1%
Apr 83.6%
May 81.6%
June 80.4%
July 82.7%
August 83.2%
Sept 84.8%
Oct 85.5%
Nov 85.9%
Dec 87.1%
Jan '12 87.6%
Feb 88.0%
Mar 86.3%
Apr 84.2%
May 87.0%
June 87.4%
July 88.3%
Aug 89.7%
Sept 90.6%
Oct 90.8%
Nov 90.8%
Dec 90.9%
Jan '13 91.8%
% Veh. With Incentives
1.31% 9.74%
11.06% Jan ‘12: 10.78%
1.53% Jan ‘12: 1.32%
1.47% 11.89%
Page 11… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary February 2013
Full Size Pickup Full Size Van
Luxury Car Lower Midrange
Lower Mid Range Utility Vehicle Large Utility Vehicle
Jan ‘12: 10.9% Jan ‘12: 1.56%
Jan ‘12: 8.51% Jan ‘12: 1.62%
2.41%
Jan ‘12: 2.32% 2.41%
4.20% 0.29%
3.34%
Jan ‘12: 3.70% 2.83%
0.30%
Page 12… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary February 2013
Near Luxury Car
Midi-Van Mid Range Utility-Vehicle
Minivan
Premium Car Premium Mid-Range Car
Jan ‘12: 0.24%
Jan ‘12: 3.47%
Jan ‘12: 0.37% Jan ‘12: 4.39%
1.67% 0.20%
1.61% 12.39%
3.07% 0.30%
Page 13… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary February 2013 Premium Sporty Car Premium Utility Vehicle
Standard Mid Range Car Small Pickup
Sport Utility Pickup Touring Car
Jan ‘12: 0.25 % Jan ‘12: 3.24%
Jan ‘12: 12.56% Jan ‘12: 2.54%
Jan ‘12: 0.19 % Jan ‘12: 1.75%
0.02%
0.18% 0.05%
1.89% 0.05%
0.01%
Page 14… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary February 2013 Traditional Car Ultra Upscale Car
Ultra Luxury Sporty Car Upper Mid-Range Utility
Ultra-Premium Utility Vehicle Upper Premium Sporty Car
Jan ‘12: 0.05 %
Jan ‘12: 02 %
Jan ‘12: 0.05 % Jan ‘12: 1.61%
Jan ‘12: 0.04% Jan ‘12: 0.17%
CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary
Back Page *Deliveries not sales Feb 1-15 Feb 1-15 % Chng Actual Sales Feb '12 Full Mo
cy2013 cy2012 13 v 12 Feb '12 Sales Change
New Cars Extension
Detroit 3 129,943 129,416 0.4% 190,387 191,162 0.4%
Asian 135,229 125,062 8.1% 355,432 384,327 8.1%
European 35,124 34,191 2.7% 73,933 75,950 2.7%
Ttl Pass. Cars 300,296 288,669 4.0% 619,752 651,440 5.1%
New Trucks
Detroit 3 191,285 190,016 0.7% 327,857 330,047 0.7%
Asian 60,042 55,639 7.9% 175,254 189,123 7.9%
European 6,891 5,762 19.6% 26,122 31,240 19.6%
Ttl Lt. Trucks 258,218 251,417 2.7% 529,233 550,410 4.0%
Ttl Industry 558,514 540,086 3.4% 1,148,985 1,201,849 4.6%
Feb 1-15 Full Feb % Chng Prev Mo Prev Mo % Chng
cy2013 cy2012 13 v 12 cy2013 cy2012 13 v 12
Lease Share 27.8% 25.6% 8.4% 28.5% 26.4% 8.0%
Floor Traffic - New 77.52 77.01 0.7% 81.09 73.06 11.0%
Floor Traffic - Used 89.84 84.19 6.7% 88.03 80.99 8.7%
Feb 1-15 Prev Yr % Chng % Chng Pent Up Demand Units
cy2013 cy2012 Same Mo '12 Prev Mo Feb '13 118,250
Avg. New MSRP $37,314 $36,021 3.59% -0.19% Feb '12 109,500
Total Discounts $5,231 $5,807 -9.92% 0.16% % Change -8.0%
Manufacturer Incentives $3,966 $4,165 -4.78% 2.24%
Dealer Incentives $1,265 $1,642 -22.96% -5.83% Purchase Delay Months
Core Transaction Price**** $32,083 $30,214 6.19% -0.25% Feb '13 3.97
% Mfg Incentive of MSRP 10.63% 11.56% -8.1% Feb '12 3.87
% Ttl Discounts of MSRP 14.02% 16.12% -13.0% % Change 2.6%