Knowledge network for System Innovationsand transitions (www.ksinetwork.nl)

Transformative Change towards sustainability

Jan RotmansJan Rotmans1919--1010--2011, Maastricht2011, Maastricht

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Persistent problems

•• our society faces a number of persistent problemsour society faces a number of persistent problems

•• many examples: climate change, energy supply, many examples: climate change, energy supply, water problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health carewater problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health care

•• persistence is due to system failures that are deeply rootedpersistence is due to system failures that are deeply rootedin our societal structuresin our societal structures

•• regular policy aimed at incremental improvementregular policy aimed at incremental improvementis not enough to resolve persistent problemsis not enough to resolve persistent problems

transformative change is neededtransformative change is needed

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fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in

societal (sub)systemsocietal (sub)system

•• structure:structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure (market, consumption, production), institutions(market, consumption, production), institutions(rules, regulations, collective actors)(rules, regulations, collective actors)

•• culture:culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectivecollective set of values, norms, perspective(shared orientation), paradigm (defining(shared orientation), paradigm (definingproblems and solutions)problems and solutions)

•• practices:practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling,routines, behaviour, ways of handling,implementation at the individual levelimplementation at the individual level

incumbent structure, culture and practices need to be brokenincumbent structure, culture and practices need to be brokendown and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up down and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up

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20 - 30 years

Acceleration phasePredevelopment phase20 – 30 years

Breakthrough to sustainable society

”Widespread application

of new paradigms

Distribution and diffusion of societal advantagesTip

ping P

oint

Battle between old and new paradigm

Build up and decay of institutions

energy

Time

We are here

Consolidatiion

transport

fisheries

health care

agriculture

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Multiple LevelsMacro-levelautonomous trends, paradigms, slow developments

Meso-levelregime: dominant structures, cultures and practices (but also niche regimes)

Micro-levelfast developments: innovative ideas, projects, techniques, niche actors

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Examples of transitions

•• from coal energy supply to gas energy supplyfrom coal energy supply to gas energy supply

•• from extensive to intensive agriculturefrom extensive to intensive agriculture

•• from an industrial from an industrial -- to service to service -- to knowledge economyto knowledge economy

•• from fossil fuel based energy supply to renewablefrom fossil fuel based energy supply to renewableenergy supply energy supply

not spontaneous processesnot spontaneous processes

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Why do transitions often fail?

game, rules and playersgame, rules and players

transition requires a new structure, culture and practicestransition requires a new structure, culture and practices

transition requires new rules, new players and new gametransition requires new rules, new players and new game

dominant players have too many interests to defend anddominant players have too many interests to defend anddondon’’t want to change the rules drasticallyt want to change the rules drastically

only new players can only new players can ‘‘break openbreak open’’ the game and changethe game and changethe rulesthe rules

more, different, bettermore, different, better

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Sustainability as orientation

sustainability serves as guiding orientation for transitionsustainability serves as guiding orientation for transition

sustainable development is a socially and scientificallysustainable development is a socially and scientificallycontested notion: contested notion: no unique definition or approachno unique definition or approach

transitiontransition approachapproach

organize reflexive search and learning process with organize reflexive search and learning process with stakeholders [frontrunners] to assess what sustainabilitystakeholders [frontrunners] to assess what sustainabilityis in a particular contextis in a particular context

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Transition governancerules of thumbrules of thumb

•• longlong--term thinking as the basis for short term policyterm thinking as the basis for short term policy

•• think in terms of multiple domains (multithink in terms of multiple domains (multi--domain), domain), different actors (multidifferent actors (multi--actor), actor), different levels (multidifferent levels (multi--level)level)

•• learning as an important aim for policy (learning as an important aim for policy (‘‘learninglearning--byby--doingdoing’’ and and ‘‘doingdoing--byby--learninglearning’’))

•• using uncertainties as a starting point for governanceusing uncertainties as a starting point for governance

•• keeping options open (wide playing field)keeping options open (wide playing field)

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Transition approachprinciplesprinciples

-- put energy in frontrunners and not in the packput energy in frontrunners and not in the pack

-- bring frontrunners together in protected spaces bring frontrunners together in protected spaces

-- develop a longdevelop a long--term agenda, incl. vision + pathwaysterm agenda, incl. vision + pathways

-- start with portfolio of transition experimentsstart with portfolio of transition experiments

-- create new coalitions around pathways & experimentscreate new coalitions around pathways & experiments

searching, learning, experimentingsearching, learning, experimenting

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Transition approach cycle

vision, pathways,transition

agenda

transition arena

transition experiments

evaluation, monitoring

learning

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society

Transition arenasRegular policy arena- Short term- Peloton - Incremental change- Problem- and goal oriented

- Long term- Innovators - System-innovation- Problem- and goal searching

The transition arena space for experimenting and envisioning

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Transition experimentsssocietal experiments with high risks (chance of failure) ocietal experiments with high risks (chance of failure) and a high potential to contribute to a transition processand a high potential to contribute to a transition process

how to manage portfolio of transition experiments?how to manage portfolio of transition experiments?

-- deepeningdeepening [learn as much as possible from an experiment][learn as much as possible from an experiment]

-- broadeningbroadening [repeating an experiment in a different context][repeating an experiment in a different context]

-- scaling upscaling up [anchoring of an experiment in the regime[anchoring of an experiment in the regime]]

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Transition Experiments

•• energy delivering greenhouseenergy delivering greenhouse

•• rush hour avoidancerush hour avoidance

•• electric vehicleselectric vehicles

•• CCS close to residential areaCCS close to residential area

•• sustainable roofssustainable roofs

•• regulatory free zonesregulatory free zones

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Ongoing transition processes

•• six Dutch ministries have official transition policysix Dutch ministries have official transition policy•• Water transitionWater transition•• Energy transitionEnergy transition•• Construction sector transitionConstruction sector transition•• Mobility transitionMobility transition•• Biodiversity transitionBiodiversity transition•• Health care transitionHealth care transition

•• regional governments experiment with transition policyregional governments experiment with transition policy•• Provinces Zeeland, Flevoland, NorthProvinces Zeeland, Flevoland, North--HollandHolland•• Regions such as Zuidvleugel, Texel, Haarlemmermeer, TwenteRegions such as Zuidvleugel, Texel, Haarlemmermeer, Twente•• Cities such as Almere, Rotterdam Cities such as Almere, Rotterdam

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Energy transition•• in 2001 initiated by the ministry of Economic Affairs (EZ)in 2001 initiated by the ministry of Economic Affairs (EZ)

•• started with a niche (small group of frontrunners within EZ)started with a niche (small group of frontrunners within EZ)evolved into a movement with companies, NGOs, knowledgeevolved into a movement with companies, NGOs, knowledgeinstitutions and individualsinstitutions and individuals

•• vision has been developed vision has been developed [[‘‘where do we want to go?where do we want to go?’’]]

•• 7 main themes chosen7 main themes chosen [platforms or arenas][platforms or arenas]

•• 23 transition paths formulated 23 transition paths formulated [[‘‘how to go there from here?how to go there from here?’’]]

•• 100 transition experiments set up100 transition experiments set up [[‘‘how to implement paths?how to implement paths?’’]]

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6 ministriesInfluential personsfrom energy sector

(Ministerie van EZ)

SENTER NOVEM

TRANSITION-PROJECTS

Platform-secretaries

TaskforceEnergy transition

PLATFORMSUSUTAINABLEble

MOBILITY

UKR-support

Frontrunnersoffice

PLATFORMGREEN

RESOURCES

PLATFORMCHAIN-

EFFIICENCY

PLATFORMSUSTAINABLEELECTRIC.

PLATFORMBUILT

ENVIRONMENT

PLATFORMNEWGAS

23 23 TransitionTransition--pathwayspathways

11LongLong--term term

visionvision

100100--enenTransitionTransition

experimentsexperiments

PLATFORMGREENHOUSE

SOURCE

IPE Supporting

staff

“6 DG”team

InterdepartementaleProgramme boardEnergy transition

Energy transition begonnen met 1 arena…..

77TransitionTransition

themesthemes

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What has been achieved?

•• sense of urgency, high ambition levelsense of urgency, high ambition level

•• new discours, agenda of reform, breakthrough projectsnew discours, agenda of reform, breakthrough projects

•• broad movement with 1000 people involvedbroad movement with 1000 people involved

•• high amount of time, manpower, energy investedhigh amount of time, manpower, energy invested

butbut

still dominance of regime players and danger ofstill dominance of regime players and danger ofbecoming and execution process and becoming and execution process and institutionalizedinstitutionalized

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Successes and FailuresSuccessesSuccesses

energy transitionenergy transition

health care transitionhealth care transition

implemented in regular policyimplemented in regular policy

FailuresFailures

mobility transitionmobility transition

biodiversity transitionbiodiversity transitionnot created enough critical massnot created enough critical mass

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Role of governmentnotnot in a directing rolein a directing role

butbut

•• a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role a facilitating, enabling, stimulating role

•• still an active but different rolestill an active but different role

-- formulating vision and high ambition levelformulating vision and high ambition level-- creating space for frontrunnerscreating space for frontrunners-- stimulating and enabling transition experiments stimulating and enabling transition experiments -- removing barriers for sustainable innovationremoving barriers for sustainable innovation

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Lessons

•• natural tendency to an execution processnatural tendency to an execution process

•• natural tendency of the government to fall backnatural tendency of the government to fall backin the commandin the command--andand--control modecontrol mode

•• the first period is relatively easy, thereafter arisethe first period is relatively easy, thereafter arisewinners and loserswinners and losers

•• space for frontrunners is of crucial importancespace for frontrunners is of crucial importance[financial, organizational, juridical, mental space][financial, organizational, juridical, mental space]

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International Context

•• in Belgium two transition processes are runningin Belgium two transition processes are running•• sustainable housing, sustainable energy & materials sustainable housing, sustainable energy & materials

•• in Finland transition programme for health carein Finland transition programme for health care

•• in other European countries growing interestin other European countries growing interest

•• in Australia city transition programmein Australia city transition programme•• Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Cairns Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Cairns

•• in Japan experiments with transition policy in Japan experiments with transition policy

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Insights, no Answers•• transition approach is promising new governance modetransition approach is promising new governance mode

•• principles underlying transition approach are universal principles underlying transition approach are universal but the application is contextbut the application is context--specificspecific

•• the results so far are promising and stimulating the results so far are promising and stimulating

•• transition approach can be applied at various scaletransition approach can be applied at various scalelevels [federal, province, regional level]levels [federal, province, regional level]

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Rotterdam City Port

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Knowledge network for System Innovationsand transitions (www.ksinetwork.nl)

Rotterdam City Port = 1600 ha of Rotterdam in transition

= long term transformation [25-50 jaar]

= experimental garden for innovation of the city and harbour

= long term sustainability vision City Port [2030]

= execution programme 2010-2020

= 12 business cases

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Rotterdam City Portorganic development trajectoryorganic development trajectory

sustainabilitysustainability visionvision

arenasarenas withwith frontrunnersfrontrunners

rulesrules forfor developmentdevelopment

iconsicons [[floatingfloating pavillionpavillion, clean , clean techtech delta] delta]

visionvision--actionaction intertwinedintertwined

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Procesaanpak Stadshavens

•• Klassieke aanpakKlassieke aanpak•• gebiedsvisiegebiedsvisie•• bestemmingsplanbestemmingsplan•• belangenbelangen--

vertegenwoordigervertegenwoordigerss

•• projectenprojecten•• compromiscompromis•• degelijkdegelijk

““ 7 7 ””

•• Transitie aanpakTransitie aanpak•• duurzaamheidsvisieduurzaamheidsvisie•• experimenteerruimteexperimenteerruimte•• koplopers, koplopers, nicheniche--

spelersspelers•• experimenten experimenten •• controversieelcontroversieel•• uitdagenduitdagend

““ 9 9 ””

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Procesaanpak Stadshavens

organisch ontwikkelingstrajectorganisch ontwikkelingstraject

zoekzoek-- en leerproces met koplopers uit samenlevingen leerproces met koplopers uit samenleving

lange termijn lange termijn duurzaamheidsvisieduurzaamheidsvisie als kompasals kompas

uitvoering uitvoering stapstap--voorvoor--stapstap met ruimte voor aanpassingen met ruimte voor aanpassingen

start met voorbeeldprojecten die visie ondersteunenstart met voorbeeldprojecten die visie ondersteunen

MerwehavenMerwehaven / Vierhaven als start experiment/ Vierhaven als start experiment

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Transitie aanpak Stadhavens

•• transitietransitie van van regulierregulier plan plan naarnaar duurzaamduurzaam planplan

•• duurzaamheids standaardduurzaamheids standaard

•• maatschappelijke partijen sturen meemaatschappelijke partijen sturen mee

•• focus op koplopersfocus op koplopers

•• iconen zoals drijvend paviljoen en clean iconen zoals drijvend paviljoen en clean techtech delta delta

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evaluatie, monitoring

& leren

transitie-agenda &

transitiepaden, coalities

transitie-experimenten & mobiliseren van netwerken

transitie-arenaduurzaamheidsvisie

Organic Development

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Sustainability Rules for City Port

top 10top 10

1. energy neutral building1. energy neutral building

2. climate proof building2. climate proof building

3. development on the water3. development on the water

4. reuse of existing materials/products4. reuse of existing materials/products

5. green als carrier of development5. green als carrier of development

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Sustainability Rules for City Port

top 10top 10

6. diversity as starting point6. diversity as starting point

7. human standard as starting point7. human standard as starting point

8. building in cultural historical perspective 8. building in cultural historical perspective

9. sustainable exploitation and maintenance9. sustainable exploitation and maintenance

10. sustainable knowledge as economic driver10. sustainable knowledge as economic driver

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Sustainability Rules for City Porttranslation into scale levelstranslation into scale levels

•• cascade of sustainability rules of gamecascade of sustainability rules of game

•• translation into 4 different scale levelstranslation into 4 different scale levels

•• the sub city port level [large sub areas]the sub city port level [large sub areas]

•• the district / neighbourhoood levelthe district / neighbourhoood level

•• the building / house level the building / house level

[the Rotterdam Energy Approach][the Rotterdam Energy Approach]

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Uitvoeringscyclus

business Planbusiness Cases

gebiedsontwikkelingsplanintegraal Uitvoeringsplan

duurzaamheids Iconen

leer ervaringenopschaling

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Drijvend ontwikkelen

-- klimaatbestendig en klimaatneutraalklimaatbestendig en klimaatneutraal

-- flexibeler en goedkoper bouwenflexibeler en goedkoper bouwen

-- integratie van functiesintegratie van functies

-- sociale, economische en fysieke eenheidsociale, economische en fysieke eenheid

-- internationale allureinternationale allure

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incubator for new economy in Rotterdam & Holland

will be located in Merwe/Vierhavens

started by business companies and municipality

upcycling of waste, energy production, biomass

living lab = breeding place

Clean Tech Delta

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floating pavilion is learning exercise for floating district

stepping stone

floating district will be a learning exercise for floating city

learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning

Floating Pavillion

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Dutch Research Institute For

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Knowledge network for System Innovationsand transitions (www.ksinetwork.nl)

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Wat is een duurzame drijvende stad?

-- in in fysiekfysiek opzicht duurzaamopzicht duurzaamenergie, materialen, klimaatbestendigenergie, materialen, klimaatbestendig

-- in in economischeconomisch opzicht duurzaamopzicht duurzaambetaalbaar, veilig, betrouwbaarbetaalbaar, veilig, betrouwbaar

-- in in sociaal sociaal opzicht duurzaamopzicht duurzaamnieuwe leefgemeenschappennieuwe leefgemeenschappen

-- in in cultureel cultureel opzicht duurzaamopzicht duurzaamin geest van cultuurhistoriein geest van cultuurhistorie

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Dutch Research Institute For

Floating City

water recreation

ecology:wetlands

technology: floating foundation

energy: decentral heat/cold storage

mobility: floating

highway, water taxi

living / working units

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s(w

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•• in 2010 a Floating Pavillionin 2010 a Floating Pavillion

•• in 2015 a Floating Districtin 2015 a Floating Districtca. 2.5000 inhabitantsca. 2.5000 inhabitants

•• in 2020 a Floating Cityin 2020 a Floating Cityca. 10ca. 10--15.000 inhabitants15.000 inhabitants

a floating china town?a floating china town?

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Conclusions•• sustainable innovation will be the motor of a new economysustainable innovation will be the motor of a new economy

•• this will radically change our production & consumption patternsthis will radically change our production & consumption patterns

•• City Port Rotterdam is transformed into a sustainable living,City Port Rotterdam is transformed into a sustainable living,working and recreation area working and recreation area

•• this transition process takes about 30 years and requires anthis transition process takes about 30 years and requires anorganic development trajectoryorganic development trajectory

•• floating city might become thfloating city might become théé icon of a sustainable Cityicon of a sustainable CityPort RotterdamPort Rotterdam