Energy Transitions: Decarbonisation Challenges · Energy Transitions: Decarbonisation Challenges...
Transcript of Energy Transitions: Decarbonisation Challenges · Energy Transitions: Decarbonisation Challenges...
Energy Transitions: Decarbonisation Challenges
Paul Deane and Fiac GaffneyMaREI, University College Cork, Ireland
Integrated Systems
Modelling
National and EU Energy
PolicyCitizens and Community
Economic Opportunities
Strong Interaction and Linkages
Power System, Gas System,
Interconnection, Nuclear, Economics,
Uncertainty
Renewables, Conventional,
Transport, Energy Efficiency, District Heating, Demand
forecasting
Citizen Scenarios, Community , EPE,
engagement, Agencies and intermediaries
Supply and value chains, Innovation systems, Resilient
investments, Innovation and
Transitions
Decarbonising the European power system in alignment with the Paris
Agreement: A comparison of scenariosExamining a snapshot of single year scenarios for the EU power system
in 2050 under varying levels of decarbonisation*
*Preliminary results presented
Electricity22%
Thermal51%
Transport27%
EU Energy End Use 2016
Source: EUROSTAT
The Paris Climate Agreement…..• Alignment will require CO2 removal not just CO2 reduction!• Negative Emission Technologies (NETs) may have a large part to play
CCS: https://energyw atch-inc.com /w p-content/uploads/2017/04/4-19-17-CCS.g ifB ECCS: https://hub.g lobalccsinstitute.com /sites/default/files/im agecache/620xH /publications/13516/advanced/07.jpgD A C: http://w w w .sciencem ag.org/sites/default/files/styles/in line__450w __no_aspect/public/RETTER.jpg?itok=izjg_jeD
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Bioenergy CCS (BECCS) Direct Air Capture (DAC)
Biomass potentials
• Potentials for each MS from JRC• Indirect Land use change (ILUC) not considered
Questions we need to ask on future electricity systems (IEA Task 25)
• Can supply match demand at all times• Will the power system be Reliable• Will the power system remain stable• Will power quality be assured• How does it compare to alternatives
Future Scenarios we examined
100%
Electricity demand: 4063 TWhInterconnection capacity: 111 GWVariable renewable capacity: 655 GWTotal installed capacity: 1286 GW
Electricity demand: 4063 TWhInterconnection capacity: 111 GWVariable renewable capacity: 896 GWTotal installed capacity: 1599 GW
Electricity demand: 4063 TWhInterconnection capacity: 156 GWVariable renewable capacity: 1371 GWTotal installed capacity: 2002 GW
Reference Negative Emissions Low Carbon
Decarbonisation
74
-18
27
89
3735
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-300
-200
-100
-
100
200
300
400
500
Reference Negative Emissions Low Carbon
CO2
Inte
nsity
(kgC
O2/
MW
h)
CO2
Prod
uctio
n &
Aba
tem
ent (
Mt)
Gross CO2 Production CO2 Capture from CCS CO2 Capture from BECCS
CO2 Intensity CO2 Intensity without CCS
Decarbonisation with Direct Air Capture
74
-18
27
89
3735
58
-35
11
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-300
-200
-100
-
100
200
300
400
500
Refer ence Negat ive Emissions Low Car bon
CO2
Inte
nsity
(kgC
O2/
MW
h)
CO2
Prod
uctio
n &
Aba
tem
ent (
Mt)
Gross CO2 Production Gross CO2 Production with DAC CO2 Capture from CCSCO2 Capture from BECCS CO2 Capture from DAC CO2 IntensityCO2 Intensity without CCS CO2 Intensity with DAC
Inertia – Continental Europe
Inertia – Continental Europe
Inertia – Continental Europe
Inertia – Continental Europe
Weaknesses in Our Analysis
Technological Weaknesses• No detailed modelling of transmission or distribution system• No robust adequacy analysis/system dynamics• Only single wind and solar years modelling• Assumptions that market support for NET’s will exist
Limiting Factors• Computational limits• Data access and availablity
High-level Challenges
• Technological: • System operation; maintain stable, reliance supply• Negative Emission Technologies; Slow technology development, e.g. no
significant progress around CCS
• Policy: • Lack of policy support for Negative Emission Technologies
• Societal: • Lack of commercial buy-in of Negative Emission Technologies
Thank you.Questions?
All feedback welcome! Email: [email protected]