WomenTrends® 2011 Sneak Preview

Alisa Marie Beyer The Benchmarking Company

© 2011 All rights reserved. The Benchmarking Company.

Table of Contents

I. Introduction

II. Industry Facts & Figures

III. Micro Beauty Consumer Trends

a. Skin

b. Color

c. Hair

d. Fragrance

IV. Macro Beauty Consumer Trends

V. Macro Cultural Trends

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Introduction The beauty industry is not as pretty as it used to be; it’s prettier. Every year, hundreds, if not thousands of

new products hit the market, but no longer are these products only coming from the tried and true industry

leaders we all know and love – Chanel, Lancome, Estee Lauder and Clinique. These days, everyone is

throwing their hat into the beauty ring: celebrities, reality TV stars, musicians, fashion designers, makeup

artists, dermatologists, estheticians, clothing and shoe retailers, non-profits, and even tattoo artists! All want

to tap into the glamour and excitement of our industry, and all enter into the game thinking their idea/product/

brand is the unique game-changer consumers have been waiting for. However, when you consider that up to

95% of new product launches fail each year (Source: AccuPoll); 80% of new brands fail (Source: Ernst &

Young), and only about 15 – 20% of new brands and products are actually successful (Source: Procter &

Gamble), we can see that clearly, something has got to change. The beauty pie isn’t growing and we are

dangerously close to over-saturation – which is why knowing and understanding the trends that affect us all

in this chock-a-block sea of competition is absolutely critical.

These days, the beauty industry is embracing trends in technology, ingredients, retail channels and even

lifestyle choices that in the not so distant past, we might never have considered.

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But what is a trend?

A trend articulates values which are ascending in

society. They can be physical or psychological. A

state-of-mind or a product. Social or Personal. And

they bring about changes that are long-term and

lasting. (How long ago was it that you had a paper

map in your car? Not long). Often, trends are

confused with fads. A fad is a short-term cultural blip

that is fun, yet may not lead to any sort of deep,

lasting cultural change. (Trucker hats and Cabbage

Patch Dolls anyone?) I’m here today to talk about the

top micro and macro beauty and cultural trends that

are deeply affecting women’s lives, and that ultimately,

will help guide our industry through the inevitable

changes that are heading our way in the face of so

much competition and innovation.

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TBC Beauty Facts, Figures, and Trends

January 2011

Worldwide Cosmetic Market

•  The global cosmetic and toiletries market was roughly $350 billion in 2009.

•  The top 100 companies in the cosmetic and personal care sectors generated $141 billion in global sales in 2009.

•  That’s a 16.3% drop year-on-year.

•  Meanwhile, the smallest companies on the top 100 list got larger.

•  For instance, in 2009 the 100th-ranked firm

rang up $112.5 million versus $109.8

million in the 2008 edition.

Lee, Virginia. “Opportunities in the US Beauty Industry.” Euromonitor International presentation at COSMOPROF. 7/18/10.) Weil, Jennifer. “Beauty’s Top 100.” WWD.COM. 8.13.10. < http://www.wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/the-wwd-beauty-biz-top-100-3210830> 6

Cosmetic Product Categories Now that you know where all the money is spent, it’s helpful to know what people are

spending their money on. The cosmetic industry (aka beauty industry or personal care industry) can be broken down into 5 categories with sales distributed as follows:

Perry. “A Cosmetic Industry Overview for Cosmetic Chemists.” 01/05/2010. <http://chemistscorner.com/a-cosmetic-market-overview-for-cosmetic-chemists/>

Hair Care: 220% Facial Skin Care: 227% Fragrance: 110%

Make-up: 220% Personal Care: 223%

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Hair Care Shampoos make up the vast majority of this market since almost everyone uses shampoo. Other significant market segments include conditioners, styling products, hair color, and relaxers. Currently, the biggest players in this category are PProcter & Gamble (Pantene) and LL’Oreal.

Skin Care The range of products that are offered for the skin care market are much more diverse than the hair care market. Skin care includes skin moisturizers, cleansers, facial products, anti-acne, and anti-aging products. The biggest companies in this market include PProcter & Gamble (Olay) and UUnilever (Vaseline).

Make-up The color cosmetic market includes anything from lipstick to nail polish. Included are things like blush, eyeshadow, foundation, etc. The array of products is vast and the number of color variations are practically infinite. The market is highly segmented so there isn’t really one dominant player. MMaybelline and CClinique are just a couple of significant brands.

Perry. “A Cosmetic Industry Overview for Cosmetic Chemists.” 01/05/2010. <http://chemistscorner.com/a-cosmetic-market-overview-for-cosmetic-chemists/>

Cosmetic Product Categories

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Fine Fragrance This market segment has really taken a hit in the last few years but it still makes up about 10% of the cosmetic industry. This is the highest profit segment of the cosmetic industry but consumers are fickle. Only a few brands (like CChanel #5) can last for a long time. Fine fragrances come and go like fashion and companies have to continue to reformulate just to compete.

 

Personal Care The “personal care” category represents 23% of the cosmetic industry and is made up of things like toothpaste, deodorants, sunscreens, depilatories, and other personal care products not yet mentioned. The dominant companies are many of the same already mentioned, PP&G, LL’Oreal, and UUnilever.

Perry. “A Cosmetic Industry Overview for Cosmetic Chemists.” 01/05/2010. <http://chemistscorner.com/a-cosmetic-market-overview-for-cosmetic-chemists/>

Cosmetic Product Categories

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A Look into Key Distribution Segments

Drug Stores The US drugstores industry includes about 20,000 companies with combined annual revenue of about $220 billion.

•  Major companies include Walgreens, CVS Caremark, and Rite Aid.

•  The industry is concentrated: the 50 largest companies generate about 70 percent of revenue.

Spa Services The spa services industry in the US includes about 18,000 facilities with combined annual revenue of more than $13 billion.

•  Major spa services companies include destination spa chains Canyon Ranch and Golden Door, massage clinic franchise Massage Envy, as well as day space franchise Woodhouse Spa.

•  The industry is highly fragmented: most spa services companies operate a single facility with less than $1 million in annual revenue.

“Cosmetic Industry Overview” Hoovers.com Accessed on 12/12/2010. <http://subscriber.hoovers.com/H/results/allCategories.html?documentsPerPage=4 > 10

A Look into Key Distribution Segments

Department Stores The US department store industry includes about 3,500 stores with combined annual revenue of $70 billion.

•  Major companies include Sears, JCPenney, Macy's (which owns Bloomingdale's), and Dillard's.

•  The industry is highly concentrated: the top 50 companies have nearly 100 percent of the market. 

Cosmetic Retail Market The cosmetic, beauty supply, and specialty store industry includes about 13,000 stores with combined annual revenue of around $10 billion.

•  Major companies include Sally Beauty Supply, Ulta, Sephora, and divisions of Limited Brands (Bath & Body Works) and L’Oreal (The Body Shop International).

•  The industry is concentrated: the top 50 companies have almost 75 percent of industry revenue.

“Cosmetic Industry Overview” Hoovers.com Accessed on 12/12/2010. <http://subscriber.hoovers.com/H/results/allCategories.html?documentsPerPage=4 > 11

Key Players

Mmoma, Ejiofor. "World's Best-Selling Makeup." Forbes.com. 2/9/06. <http://www.forbes.com/2006/02/08/best-selling-cosmetics_cx_me_0209feat_ls.html>

Massive multinational corporations dominate the makeup industry, but in recent years they have been creating or acquiring boutique brands in order to crack the market for

premium makeup.

Estée Lauder and rival LL'Oréal have realized that, like the spirits industry, the key to success lies in offering a suite of products targeted at a wide range of customers, but

with special emphasis on the growing luxury sector.

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World’s Largest Manufacturers

Mmoma, Ejiofor. "World's Best-Selling Makeup." Forbes.com. 2/9/06. <http://www.forbes.com/2006/02/08/best-selling-cosmetics_cx_me_0209feat_ls.html> 13

Mmoma, Ejiofor. "World's Best-Selling Makeup." Forbes.com. 2/9/06. <http://www.forbes.com/2006/02/08/best-selling-cosmetics_cx_me_0209feat_ls.html>

Firms are listed by their parent companies and ranked by beauty sales for the 2009 calendar year. For this list, "beauty" includes fragrance, makeup, skin care, sun care, hair care and deodorant, plus cellulite and shaving products. It does not comprise bar soaps, razors, toothpastes, foods and diet foods, medicines, vitamins or detergents. Beauty revenues only comprise sales of beauty products each firm manufactures and do not include business from private label lines or products it might distribute for other firms.

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World’s Largest Manufacturers

New Beauty Category: Men’s Grooming

Men’s Grooming is Fastest Growing Category According to Euromonitor International, men’s grooming is set to be one of the fastest-growing categories in beauty and personal care, predicted to add approximately $4 billion to its global value size ($27 billion) by 2014.   Why? Sales are set to rise thanks to changing attitudes among men globally about grooming and

a shift in key emerging regions away from manual work toward white-collar jobs.   Where? The U.S. commands the highest value sales, accounting for an 18% share of the global $27

billion men’s grooming in 2009, but it is showing signs of slowing growth as an after-effect of the recession, and Western Europe remains the largest region for the male-specific category because of strong sales in the French, German and U.K. markets. The region is set to continue to see strong growth, adding more than $800 million to its size by 2014 as men in the region move beyond basic products related to shaving to more sophisticated grooming regimens that incorporate numerous skin care and post-shave products.

Lennard, Carrie. “Masculine Dynamism—Men’s Care Growing Fast”. 12/6/10. GCI Magazine. December Issue. < http://www.gcimagazine.com/marketstrends/consumers/men/111394189.html> 15

Consistency is Key Differing from other categories, beauty has

been the most consistent throughout the economic downturn and recovery.

•  From holiday 2008 through early 2010, the beauty category displayed search impression levels that were flat to slightly decreased. In addition the number of orders in the luxury beauty category increased only slightly at nine percent and conversion rates increased at a rate of 17%.

•  This consistency in the luxury beauty category throughout the recession and upswing perhaps indicates support for the widely known “lipstick effect,” the theory that consumers are more willing to purchase lower cost luxury goods even when their funds are more limited.

“Beauty: Consistency is Key.” Range Online Media. 2010. 16

Prestige Makeup Sales Shine in U.S. Department Stores

Sales for prestige makeup in U.S. department stores on a positive trend.

August 2010 was the fourth consecutive month of positive dollar and unit sales.   Dollar sales increased two percent to USD 2 billion, year-to-date through August 2010, compared to the

same time period in 2009.   While two percent may not seem like a huge sales increase, it is noteworthy because this is the first time in

two years that the prestige makeup industry is showing a positive trend.

Face and Nails were standout segments, outperforming the total make-up category.   Face, the largest segment with 49 percent dollar share of makeup, grew 3 percent in dollar volume, versus

last year. Concealer (+6%), Foundation (+3%), and Blush (+2%) helped lead the way.   The Nail segment, the smallest makeup segment, with only one percent dollar share, grew a double-digit 31

percent year-to-date (Jan thru Aug.) 2010, compared to the same time last year.

Both the Lip and Eye segments showed positive growth as well.   Lip and Eye segments grew two and one percent respectively. The sub-segments driving growth in the Lip

and Eye categories were Lip Color (+8%) and Eye Liner (+3%).

“Prestige Makeup Sales Shine in U.S. department stores: Face and Nail Categories are Biggest Standouts in Makeup”. 12/14/10. <http://www.cosmetic-business.com/en/showartikel.php?art_id=2266>

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2010 Winners & Losers

•  Only 31% of women say that their makeup buying behavior hasn’t changed as a result of the economy. Still, these changes have not effected all companies equally.

•  Of the major publicly traded cosmetics companies, only EEstee Lauder CCompanies has been able to rebound strongly since the downturn began in October 2007 (up 48 percent over the past three years).

•  Revlon, which was founded in 1932 during the Great Depression, recently turned positive thanks to a 16 percent September rally.

•  Meanwhile, since the last recession officially began Avon Products and EElizabeth Arden are still down 14 and 26 percent, respectively.

Cavallero, Matt. “Cosmetics Stocks Will Make Your Eyeliner Run”. 10/1/2010. < http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2010/10/01/cosmetics-stocks-will-make-your-eyeliner-run/> "The eyes have it! Eye makeup sales bolster color cosmetics growth, reports Mintel” 7/2010. <http://www.mintel.com/press-centre/press-releases/562/the-eyes-have-it-eye-makeup-sales-bolster-color-cosmetics-growth-reports-mintel>. 18

Succeeding in Beauty

Cavallero, Matt. “Cosmetics Stocks Will Make Your Eyeliner Run”. 10/1/2010. < http://blogs.forbes.com/greatspeculations/2010/10/01/cosmetics-stocks-will-make-your-eyeliner-run/> "The eyes have it! Eye makeup sales bolster color cosmetics growth, reports Mintel” 7/2010. <http://www.mintel.com/press-centre/press-releases/562/the-eyes-have-it-eye-makeup-sales-bolster-color-cosmetics-growth-reports-mintel>. Miles, Lynn. “New Products, Facts, and Stats.” 6/607. Research Matters #6757. <http://www.aaaa.org/news/bulletins/Documents/ResearchMtrs.pdf>

Only a very small percentage of new beauty products and brand introduced into the market each year are successful. The experts offer different explanations as to why:   •  According to Procter & Gamble CEO A.G Lafley, ““In our industry, only about 15 to 20 percent of new brands and

products really succeed. Every year from 2000 through 2007—the last completed fiscal year virtually all of our incremental growth has come from innovation. One of the things we try to understand is … what's the real pace of innovation that's right for the consumer, right for the retailer and right for us.”

•  According to research agency AcuPoll, “As many as 995 percent of new products introduced each year fail.”

•  According to Ernst & Young,, “Upwards of 80 percent of new brands fail and the primary reason is a lack of differentiation from competitors.”

•  According to Marketing Corporation of America, “LLine extensions have a failure rate of 49 percent, while 774 percent of more innovative products fail. Reasons for new product failure include: A value proposition that is not sufficiently compelling and/or awareness and trial is not generated by marketing.”

•  According to the Americian Association of Advertising Agencies, “In the highly-competitive consumer goods market, the success of a new product is the hard-earned result of streamlining innovation processes and supporting them with experienced, dedicated people and enabling technologies. AAbout 75 percent of new products fail and that number may be even higher in a recessionary environment.”

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Daily Makeup Usage • Average woman spends 20 minutes a day applying makeup. • 4 out of 5 women wear makeup.

“The eyes have it! Eye makeup sales bolster color cosmetics growth, reports Mintel” 7/2010. <http://www.mintel.com/press-centre/press-releases/562/the-eyes-have-it-eye-makeup-sales-bolster-color-cosmetics-growth-reports-mintel>. "How much will you spend on makeup in your lifetime?”. 3/12/10. <http://www.bellasugar.com.au/How-Much-Women-Spend-Makeup-Life-7708228>. Evans, Michael. “NPD Report Shows Decline in Makeup Usage”. 8.18.10. http://www.wwd.com/beauty-industry-news/npd-report-shows-decline-in-makeup-usage-3223228.

• 76% use lip gloss and lipstick • 65% of respondents report using mascara • 63% of women report wearing eye shadow • 62% use eye liner • 38% use brow pencils • 22% use lip pencil

• 7% use compact lip color • 86% of makeup users have used makeup

that features skin care benefits in the past year.

  Moisturizing (54 percent) and SPF (51 percent) are the most popular skin care benefits in makeup products. These were followed by “oil-free-won’t clog pores” (32 percent); “reduces wrinkles-fine lines” (30 percent) and items that are natural or mineral-based (27 percent), according to the report.

• Only one million women, based on census projections, are wearing only one makeup product a day.

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Make-up Usage, Motivation, & Purchase Behavior

Emotional Connection/Motivations •  Nearly half of U.S. women surveyed believe wearing makeup gives them an advantage

at work and makes them feel more in control •  82% of women surveyed believe wearing makeup makes them feel more self-confident •  86% of women believe that wearing makeup improves their self-image   Shopping Habits •  Average woman spends $15,000 on makeup in her lifetime. •  From the ages of 16 to 65, a woman shops for cosmetics about five times a year. •  Each time she’ll spend roughly $43, equaling about $216 a year. •  That’s about $2,750 on eye shadow, $1,780 on lipstick and $3,770 on mascara in total •  The average U.S. consumer spent $616 on personal care in 2008

“L'Oréal Survey Reveals Beauty Habits in the Face of Recession”. 8/31/09. GCI Magazine. < L'Oréal Survey Reveals Beauty Habits in the Face of Recession> "How much will you spend on makeup in your lifetime?”. 3/12/10. <http://www.bellasugar.com.au/How-Much-Women-Spend-Makeup-Life-7708228>.

Make-up Usage, Motivation, & Purchase Behavior

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Micro Beauty Consumer Trends Now that you know the intimate details of the beauty industry in general, let’s look at 20

of the hottest micro beauty trends for 2011. Micro beauty trends are quick, often seasonal trends that spring from the runways and fashion houses, top makeup artists,

industry leaders, regular women on the street, and these micro-trends help guide consumers as they make their day to day beauty and fashion decisions.

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Skin

1.  Minimal ingredients, that are easily understandable and as natural as possible, are leading the way this season. Gone are the days of ingredient labels that are so long, they take two sides of the box to list.

2.  Our beauty-inspirations are coming full circle, with models, actors and celebrities starting to embrace how they really look – wrinkles and all. Rather than overly-smooth and unnaturally young-looking, the skincare ‘look’ that is taking over this season is that of healthy, realistic and attainable.

3.  Anti-aging ingredients will move from just fighting (and preventing) wrinkles on the outside, but to growing youthful skin cells on the inside. Can we change our DNA?

4.  Preservatives are not the enemy, and smarter, safer, skin-friendlier preservatives are going to be an important part of the industry’s growth.

5.  The allure of the tan will continue to fade. Tanning beds – even UV free tanning-beds – are no longer desirable. The deep, dark, tropic tan has lost its appeal with most consumers.

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Minimal, Fresh, Age-Reversing, Proven, Clinical

Color

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Bold, Bright, Juicy, Beautiful, Glowing, Healthy

1.  Bright, bold makeup is the key to fresh spring makeup: neon yellow, mandarian orange, lollipop purple and grass green.

2.  Lipstick in saturated shades of tangerine, watermelon and deep berry is back, ranging anywhere from matte to ultra-shiny.

3.  Cheeks are colorful, contoured and classic – with shades ranging from icy pink to golden peach.

4.  Foundation is lighter-than-light, not apparent on the skin, and leaves the complexion looking infused with vitality.

5.  Temporary tattoos have arrived, and they may be here to stay. Available in beautiful, believable designs and colors, non-committal tattoos are the darling of the cosmetics world, and springing up everywhere from magazine ads, to runways to beauty aisles. Look for sophisticated versions that can double as jewelry or even makeup.

Hair

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Sunny, Smooth, Shiny, Long & Inviting, Exotic Ingredients

1.  Bright, sunny and inviting blonde shades took center stage on runways from coast to coast.

2.  Long, wavy, hippie-inspired tresses that are either stick-straight or imbued with soft body are a breath of spring energy.

3.  Side-parts are hot. Hair is swept low over the forehead, and pinned on one side with large, gorgeous barrettes and pins.

4.  Perm performance! The age of the perm is back, only – it’s not the perm of your youth. Today’s perms leave behind soft curls, soft body and even better? Soft hair.

5.  Exotic singe-note ingredients to keep hair soft and silky this year are: bamboo, wild ginger, and French plum.

Fragrance

1.  What’s old is new again. Stand-by classics such as Eternity, Angel, and Oscar de la Renta are enjoying a resurgence in popularity, proving why these classics lasted long enough to make a come-back.

2.  Already gorgeous, perfume bottles will become the true calling card of every scent. Featuring gorgeous designs, colors, materials and packaging, the bottle is the silent note of every fragrance, and will be even more beautiful in 2011.

3.  Fragrance personalization will be in-demand. Already hugely popular in the Middle East, the small luxury of having a personally-blended formula created just for you will be wildly popular.

4.  Fragrances for people who don’t want to smell like they are wearing perfume will continue to hold market share.

5.  The popularity of fragrances in recent years has been on the decline. Due to the economy, the fact that younger women don’t wear as much scent and so many fragrances have glutted the market — will it come back?

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Classic, Breath-taking, Fresh, Personalized, Vintage

Macro Beauty Consumer Trends

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Beauty’s new face

As the world population continues to evolve and expand, the norms for beauty marketing, product development and brand growth will have to change in order to keep up with

the new demographic landscape. ‘Ethnic beauty’, once considered only a small subset of the overall beauty

market, is, according to GCI Magazine, expected to have combined spending of $4.2 trillion by 2013. It’s a smart beauty brand that takes note of this very powerful trend and takes into account the potential of this new beauty

consumer when brainstorming and planning new product launches. Ethnic consumers describe a large variety of women: Indian, African American, Hispanic, Asian, and the specific product needs for each of these groups are

unique. Brands not only see this need, they are anticipating and reacting to it by launching products that

speak to the cultural and traditional backgrounds and habits of these groups. Everything from skincare to

makeup to hair care to body care, ethnic beauty products are emerging as a viable and important category in the

overall beauty market. 28

Ethnic beauty brands are growing in importance.

TREND #1

Best-tige

Like the jewels of the beauty industry, super-prestige beauty products, which contain the rarest-of-rare ingredients, promise

the most exceptional results ever imagined, and are only available at the most exclusive retailers, are growing boldly. From the early adapters such as La Mer and Cle de Peu, to

Giorgio Armani Beauty, Kanebo Sensai, and Bulgari, it’s clear that the bar of what constitutes luxury color and skincare is

being raised. These brands are more than prestige – they are glittering luxuries that tantalize many, yet are in actuality only

options for a small minority of consumers. But this doesn’t stop these brands from continuing to evolve. These types of hyper-expensive products are gaining in popularity and we think this trend is only going to continue to inflate as luxury brands seek out ways to keep a hold on not only their loyal consumers, but

on potential new consumers, as well.

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Luxury beauty brands are redefining themselves.

TREND #2

Subdivisions

The line between prestige and masstige color products will continue to blur as mass beauty brands innovate ever-more impressive products and lines to

keep up with demand. Sure, there will always be a difference between prestige and mass offerings, but

for many women – these differences will seem negligible, or even non-existent. In place of watered-

down versions of their more expensive cousins, massitige color cosmetics now feature the same

cutting-edge technologies, pure pigments and long-lasting wearability that consumers demand.

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Masstige color brands are closing the great divide.

TREND #3

It’s in to start within

Although the beauty from within trend isn’t new, it is one that will continue to hold bandwidth with consumers in

2011. As brands diversify their offerings, and create even better, more tasty product options, more and more of us are aware of and importantly – understanding how these types of beauty products work, and we like them.

When faced with taking a handful of pills vs. eating a tasty ‘beauty bar’ or drinking a refreshing ‘beauty

beverage’ many women prefer the ingestible. The perfect partner to the latest slew of skincare that

promises to ‘turn on’ the genes that control youth, beauty-from-within appeals to us all with promises of

increased radiance, fewer lines and wrinkles, and overall improved health.

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Beauty-from-within will continue to evolve

TREND #4

Entitlement

Let’s face it. Entitlement is powerful. It’s led us to aspire to cars, jobs, homes and lifestyles with a single-

mindedness second to none. Now, the idea of entitlement has turned to youth, or more specifically, looking

younger. Where it used to be enough to encourage women to wear sunscreen and try to delay the

appearance of wrinkles, today – immediately firmer, smoother, radiant, and more youthful skin is no longer

something we should have to work for – it’s considered our right. From baby boomers all the way down to

wrinkle-free twenty-somethings, we all feel entitled to look younger, better, prettier, faster. And, to have as few flaws

as possible. It’s not enough for beauty products to just promise results, they must promise results that can be

seen and felt within minutes if not instantaneously. Which is a good thing because minutes are all most women

have, and all that they can spend, in their quest to find that which will make them look younger.

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Youth-on-demand. (aka – looking young is my right.)

TREND #5

Mirror, my mirror

No longer will we look in the mirror simply to see our reflection. Now – we are going to be able to look in the mirror

and have it reflect back an entirely different kind of image. Say hello to the ‘virtual mirror’. Sounding like something right

out of a sci-fi movie, makeup companies and retailers are rolling out virtual mirrors which allow consumers to test-out

different looks, styles, colors and trends, and then share the results instantly with friends on Facebook and other social

media outlets. Rather than a static image, our reflections will now be pliable, changeable images – allowing us to preview

our options and test-out looks instantly.

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We are seeing our reflections in a whole new light

TREND #6

Once upon a time…

With the often overwhelming choice of beauty products available, consumers are seeking out other kinds of

connections to their brands, most notably – the story behind the products or company. Did the hero ingredient

come from an exotic local? Was the formula founded by a prize-winning scientist or a mom, who mixed up the

miracle cream in her kitchen? Was the name inspired by a memory, a vacation or a person? Yearning to feel that she

has a personal, intimate connection to her beauty products, consumers delight in product stories and will be clamoring for more. They want to feel invited into the heart of the brand, and to relate to the products as people, and

not just consumers.

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Consumers are hungry for the story behind their favorite products, and want brands to share

TREND #7

Nailed

Nail polish has come full-circle. From muted colors and formulas that lasted only a few days, to shade ranges that rival

nature and technology that can keep polish chip-free and bonded to your nail for over 3 weeks, it’s clear that women are

more in love with nail polish than ever. And companies far afield of the beauty industry are getting involved. Dell

computer offers computers in OPI nail polish shades, Volvo is offering three nail polishes to match their new S60, and OPI – famous for divine color collections inspired by movies and TV, most recently added athletes to their list. Serena Williams has

just created two new shades for the brand, inspired by the Australian Open Tennis Match. Nail polish is luxurious, fun,

beautiful and a quick indulgence. It used to be that when the economy took a dip, women wouldn’t leave the house without

lipstick but these days, well-coiffed fingers are the trend to beat.

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The trendiest accessory on every woman’s hand isn’t her jewelry – it’s her nail polish.

TREND #8

Cultural Macro Trends

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Outsourcers-R-Us

The economy may still be recovering, our 401k’s may have lost some of their cushioning, our budgeting on food and

entertainment may have become more mainstream than not, but one place where we aren’t going to budget? Our

outsourcing. These days, most of us have ‘people’. Someone to clean our houses, mow and maintain our lawns, do our taxes,

watch our kids, fix our cars, grow our wealth, put us through our gym paces, and even keep us sane, and we view them all

as necessary, normal and needed extensions of our daily lives.

And while some may view this type of help as extraneous, for the majority – it’s rapidly becoming a way of life, and we won’t

compromise on affording it, regardless of our financial circumstances. We may be broke as a joke, but Merry Maids

will be at our house four times a month keeping our lives (and us!) in order.

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It takes a lot of help to live our lives, and we aren’t about to trade-down

TREND #1

Me-moments.

It used to be that Calgon was how women got away from it all, but as I think we can all agree, that ship has sailed. Today, it’s

about me-moments – carving out ‘me-time’ that is more meaningful than just a bubble bath (not that those aren’t

meaningful in their own way). Instead, women want moments to themselves that are impactful and give us back a sense of

peace, of purpose and of passion. What would have been unheard of in the past is now a trend for the present – exit-strategizing: women re-claiming time for themselves at the

expense of friends, family and even responsibility. Separate vacations, book clubs or women’s groups, weekend days that are dedicated ‘mommy-free zones’ are just a few of the ways

that women are mindfully (and thoughtfully) severing

themselves from their ever-growing list of responsibilities – even if only for 5 minutes – and reclaiming a sense of self and

of ‘me’.

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She’s got an exit strategy, and she doesn’t feel badly about it.

TREND #2

Home Base

Just as the food world has embraced locavore eating, more and more of us are starting to embrace locavore

living. All local resources, all of the time has become a key driver for not only how we eat, but our lifestyle

choices, as well – and it’s here to stay. We are committed to shopping, buying and supporting our local

and regional shops, sellers, producers, growers and retailers in ever-increasing numbers – even in the midst of huge cities with vast purchasing opportunities at our

fingertips. The allure of buying local is more than just quaint; as we clean-up from the economic turmoil of the

past few years, the need to focus on local resources has become a critical component in helping to rebuild not

only our local retail infrastructures, but our local communities, as well.

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Even in the big city, we are becoming local-yokels.

TREND #3

Self-renovation Fascination

Renovation is big. And in 2011, we will be renovating more than ever before. But not in the sense of houses

or homes, instead; we are in virtual frenzy of renovating ourselves. Every minute of the day, we

choose the ‘better me’ we want to be, and we are on the improvement train 24/7, 365. Self-help books, DVD’s, workout programs, vitamins and nutritional

supplements, beauty creams/serums/and procedures, carbon credits, green lifestyle choices…all of this and

more is at our beck and call to help us constantly improve ourselves and our lives. The ability to micro-edit and literally fine-tune our lives and ourselves for

the better has only just begun to hit its stride. Look for even more ingenious ways to improve life on a daily, if

not a moment to moment basis, in the very near future.

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Every minute of every day, we aren’t just someone new, we are someone better.

TREND #4

Rolling Holy

In the midst of rising scandals and religious turmoil, it would seem that a general turning away from religion would be

ascending, yet – in 2011, the trend will be the opposite. Only, it won’t be religion as we are all necessarily accustomed. We want faith, we want to feel part of a religious community…but what we don’t want are the trappings of traditional beliefs: guilt, penance,

purgatory. As the lines between faith and philosophy become ever more blurry, a new kind of religion has emerged that takes the best of both, and melds them into a phenomenon that gives

us the aspiration we crave, without the guilt that we don’t. Today’s religious leaders – many of whom aren’t necessarily

preachers or priests – such as Joel Osteen, Dr. Wayne Dyer, and Louise Hay, helm massive congregations, write best-selling books and inspire millions of us to live faith-full lives where

personal responsibility, forgiveness, generosity, gratitude, and love are the fulcrum of our beliefs, not guilt or dogmatic

parameters. Far from being a fad, this new evolution of religion is a here-to-stay trend that has not only made people feel better about religion overall, it has inspired and spurred thousands of

us to re-think the way we approach every facet of our daily lives. 41

The rise of the new religion and how it’s going to save us all

TREND #5

Mass mingling, 2011 style.

Humans are social creatures, and the exploding role of social media outlets as a method of entertainment, information

gathering and staying connected only proves that when it comes to our personal lives, these days – everyone is invited in.

According to GCI Magazine, Americans spend more time on social media networks than anywhere else online – 906 million hours per month. No longer is it enough to be idly involved in

your friends or family member’s lives. Today, we want to be connected 24/7 – and we are spending more and more time online (be that on a computer, or our Smartphone or iPad) to

ensure that our status is always up-to-the-moment and current. Where the TV once sucked away a good portion of our free time, today – this free time is spent obsessively tweeting our thoughts,

commenting on our brother’s wedding photos on Facebook, posting our location on FourSquare and sharing our weekend

exploits on YouTube. It used to be that we all yearned for our 15 minutes of fame, but now, with ever more sophisticated social media options, we are always the star. And our 15 minutes of

fame is nowhere close to being over.

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Staying connected is no longer just a daily thing, it’s a moment-to-moment thing.

TREND #6

Choice Ladders

As recovery from the economic changes of 2009 continues, our spending patterns have shifted. We may not be rushing off to purchase expensive

homes or cars, but for many of us, our wallets are open. And, we are enjoying our favorite items – both prestige and mass – that we stopped

buying in an effort to save a few pennies. However, while the doom-and-gloom predictions of total money shut-downs or no-spending have been

proven wrong, how we spend is no longer cut & dry. As consumers, most of us have altered our purchase patterns, right down to the how, what,

when and why we buy what we do into a sophisticated ‘choice ladder’. Because we want to start using our favorite prestige eye cream again, we

continue to buy generic paper towels, hand cream and coffee creamer, and in fact – we no longer really see the need for certain consumer goods

to be premium at all. In fact, our choice ladders are fluid, and they adapt monthly, if not weekly, to accommodate our rising comfort with spending

once more. We want what we want, and we are willing to ladder these choices so we can continue to get them.

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We still want what we want, only now – we are valuing these choices differently.

TREND #7

Extremes-no-more

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Why the extremes are no longer our friend.

TREND #8

In a world where reality stars get paid $25,000 to walk into a party, athletes behave as unsportsmanlike as possible, and political-correctness has reached new levels of absurdity, there is a refreshing turn back to status-quo, middle-

ground, good-old-fashioned un-excitement. The excesses of the past few years, coupled with the economic downturn has made extreme behaviors, extreme diets, extreme houses, extreme salaries…extreme anything just

seems like too much, and culturally – it’s no longer appealing. And rather than being viewed as a dull or boring, this migration back to the more stable middle-ground is instead inspiring us to set parameters, take responsibility and

ultimately again start achieving goals that in an environment of extremes, we could never achieve.

The mob mentality

We may all love our digital hook-ups, but as we continue to adjust to the changes in the economy and the environment,

people are yearning for ways to feel connected to real human beings, and not just status updates. Enter the flash mob.

Enjoying particular popularity in 2010, flash mobs popped up everywhere from supermarkets to parking lots to malls, and

brought with them the opportunity to connect to a group of real people for no other reason than to do something fun like sing or

dance. From impromptu performances of Michael Jackson’s

Thriller to singing Christmas carols, these flash mobs engaged and enchanted us all year by hurting no one, not harming the environment, and ultimately — sharing something bigger than

the mob with the world. Although TV, cellphones and computers

have made it very easy for us all to stay home and still enjoy human interaction, as we delve deeper into the many layers of

social media and online communications, we are all yearning for time away from our computers. Away from our gadgets and

gizmos, and flash mobs will continue to fill the bill.

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Feel-good ‘mob’ events are the answer to the isolation of our digital world.

TREND #9

Constant Connection

At the beginning of the movie “Jerry Maguire”, Tom Cruise’s character, Jerry Maguire, famously promises his client that he, “…will not rest until I have you holding a Coke,

wearing your own shoe, playing a Sega game *featuring you*, while singing your own song in a new commercial, *starring you*, broadcast during the Superbowl, in a game that you are winning…”. And while the potential for this kind of situation was radical in

1996, the truth is that in 2011 – all of us are this connected, and more. On any given day, there are 90 million tweets tweeted, 35 hours of video uploaded per minute, 1.6

million blog posts posted, and an average of 130 friends demanding our attention. We are wired and plugged in 24/7, and anything (and everything) we could ever possibly

want is almost instantly available to us. Want to watch a DVD, check the weather, catch up on the game, call your mom, send an email and tag some photos of yourself in

Facebook all while sitting on your couch? No problem. With today’s technology, you can do all of this simultaneously in about 5 minutes flat, and the demand for this kind of

constant connection is only going to grow. Young children and teenagers have grown up with this as their ‘norm’, and even retirees are jumping on-board, realizing that being able to sync multiple areas of your life concurrently is addicting. But as with everything,

what goes up – must come down. Our technology addiction may be on the rise, but what will cause us to start tapping out? Will we simply become too connected?

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Technology has advanced every aspect of our lives to a critical state of constant connection.

TREND #10

The rich are back

When the economy took a turn in late 2008, most all of us took a look at our spending habits and adjusted accordingly,

including the affluent shopper. She spent more time comparing her options, more time online researching her purchases, and like all of us – spent less of her dollars on

favorite items. Today, she’s reverting back to her former purchasing habits: comparing less, and buying more. In

particular, more of her favorite brands. Throughout the last two years, even though affluent shoppers purchased less, they

remained loyally committed to their favorite brands. And now that many of us are beginning to shop again, this affluent

consumer is leading the way, and flocking back to her favorite high-end, designer products with her wallet open. And

although a retail comeback may take a bit longer to kick-in for non-affluent shoppers, we believe all segments will again

return to their loyal brands and start spending.

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Affluent consumers are shopping; can the rest of us be far behind?

TREND #11