2004 Workplan WRAP Regional Modeling Center

Prepared by: 

Gail Tonnesen, University of California RiversideRalph Morris, ENVIRON Corporation

Zac Adelman, University of North CarolinaTom Moore, WRAP

Background

The Air Quality Modeling Forum has two major areas of activity planned for 2004: RMC will continue, implementing many of the tools and

improvements developed in 2003. RMC will use the same team of contractors (UCR, ENVIRON,

CEP) that have been used for the past two years The second major area of activity is to initiate modeling

for Class I areas in Alaska. Major deliverables (based on available EI data):

Geographic source apportionment Natural/Manmade source apportionment

2003 Work Plan Tasks to Be Completed in Early 2004

Description Deliverables Date

Task 2003-3: 2002 MM5 model Evaluation

1.Final Modeling Protocol2.MM5 36 km 2002 Evaluation

1/31/042/15/04

Task 2003-2: 2002 Interim Emissions Inventory

1. Completed 2002 36 km EI2. Emissions QA Report

2/15/04 

Task 2003-3: CMAQ Model Performance Evaluation for summer/winter 2002

1. CMAQ evaluation for summer & winter 2002

2/15/04  

Task 2003-5: Model Evaluation 1. Documentation of software2. Demonstration of SA tool

2/15/041/28/04

Task 2003-1: 2002 Ammonia Emissions Inventory for WRAP region.

1. NH3 EI data sets2. Final Report

2/15/042/15/04

Major Elements in the 2004 RMC Work Plan

1. Project Administration2. MM5 Modeling for 20023. 2002 Base Emission Inventory4. CMAQ Evaluation5. Source Apportionment6. Natural Background Analysis7. Comparison of Alternate Models8. Fugitive Dust Model9. Model Performance Software10. Fire Sensitivity11. Alaska Modeling12. Training

Task Cost Description PercentEffort

1 Project Admin 9%2 MM5 6%3 Emissions 15%4 CMAQ 14%5 Source Appt 7%6 Natural Haze 2%7 Alternate Model 2%9 Fugitive Dust 0%

10 Eval Software 2%11 Fire Sensitivity 5%12 Alaska Model 23%13 Training 10%

Task Total 95%Supplies/Shipping/Phone Misc 0%Travel 1%Equipment 3%

Summary of 2004 Budget

Percent of Task by FTE for 2004

Source Appt9%Natural Haze

2%

Alternate Model3%

Training0%

Alaska Model15%

Fire Sensitivity7%

Eval Software4%

Project Admin12%

MM56%

Emissions20%

CMAQ22%

Fugitive Dust0%

Summary of RMC 2004 FTE Effort

Task 1: Project Administration

Description: Website and listserv support, technical reports, project tracking and coordination with modeling efforts supported by other RPOs

Deliverables Date Budget

1. QA Plan2. Biweekly Conference MF Call and Monthly progress 3. Monthly Progress Report4. Periodic Website Updates5. MM5, Emissions and CMAQ data files

2/28/04 9%

Task 2: MM5 Modeling for 2002

Purpose: Test, improve, quality control, obtain external peer review, and finalize 36km and 12km MM5 simulations for eventual use in CMAQ

Deliverables Date Budget

1. MM5 Modeling Protocol2. Complete base case MM5 evaluation for 36 km

domain3. Completed base case MM5 evaluation for 12 km

domain4. Comparison with VISTAS MM5 modeling for 20025. Sensitivity analysis using various PBL schemes, LSM

modules, FDDA nudging strength6. Independent Peer Review7. Diagnose any remaining performance problems

 

1/25/041/31/044/30/044/30/04 As needed.8/31/0410/31/04

6%

Task 2: MM5 Modeling for 2002

High resolution 12 km nested grid for the WRAP region, shown in blue, to be used in the WRAP 2002 modeling. Domain size is 207 columns by 186 rows.

Task 3: 2002 Base Emission Inventory

Purpose: Develop and QA 2002 interim emissions inventory, and major updates throughout 2004. Prepare emissions sensitivity cases for model testing and evaluation.

Deliverables Date Budget

1. Base 36km 2002 Winter/Summer emissions 2. Base 36 km 2002 annual emissions with extended coverage of non-US sources, natural sources, and offshore emissions sources 3. Iterative/Periodic Major updates to 2002 EI 4. Base 12 km 2002 emissions 5. Plume-in-Grid (APT) Emissions inventory 6. 6 emissions sensitivity cases (changes in SOx, NOx etc)

1/05/042/28/04 

(TBD)6/30/047/31/04

15%

Task 4: CMAQ Evaluation

Purpose: 2002 base year air quality modeling with CMAQ

Deliverables Date Budget

1. Preliminary Summer/Winter 2002 modeling,2. Preliminary Annual 2002 modeling3. Periodic revised annual modeling scenarios, depending on timing and availability of emissions updates and plans for sensitivity runs.4. Annual Model simulation for 12 km WRAP domain5. 10 additional annual model sensitivity simulations (with changes in emissions or science configuration for diagnostic evaluation).

1/29/043/31/04(TBD)  7/31/0412/31/04 

14%

Task 5: Source Apportionment

Purpose: Preparation and reporting of geographic source apportionment results based on modeling the “Interim 2002” emissions inventory

Deliverables Date Budget

1. Source apportionment report using emissions/met data available 4/30.

7/15/04 7%

Task 6: Natural Background Analysis

Purpose: Further analysis of model performance in regard to the contribution of natural emissions to visibility impairment

Deliverables Date Budget

1. Natural Emissions EI2. CMAQ simulation with natural EI3. Report describing results  

7/31/038/31/0310/31/03

2%

Task 8: Fugitive Dust Model

Task under development WRAP WB Phase 1 Model (MacDougall Method) report

published Now assessing alternative models (Shao, Zender,

Westphal – compare to existing MacDougall Method) Identify best model which can be implemented this

summer Task Deliverables:

Implement alternative dust algorithm. Prepare CMAQ emissions inventory Complete CMAQ simulations and performance evaluation

Task 10: Fire Sensitivity

Deliverables Date Budget

1. Report on analysis of existing results.2. Report results of additional model runs 

 

6/30/048/31/04 

 

5% 

 

Purpose: The RMC will conduct fire emissions sensitivity analyses funded by the Fire Emissions Joint Forum

Task 11: Alaska Modeling

Purpose: To test and evaluate air quality modeling techniques in Alaska and develop the modeling approaches necessary for Alaska to perform the technical analysis needed to support their requirements for the Regional Haze Rule (RHR).

Overall Approach: Develop Methods for MM5 Meteorological Modeling in Alaska Annual MM5 Modeling Air Quality Modeling and Analysis Review and Recommendations of Regional Haze Modeling for

Alaska

Task 11: Alaska Modeling (cont.)

Locations of the 4 Class I areas in Alaska along with the two biggest Alaska cities, Anchorage and Fairbanks.

MM5 45 km (D01), 15 km (D02) and 5 km(D03 and D04) grid configuration forreal-time forecasting being conducted by UAF

Task 11: Alaska Modeling (cont.)

Deliverables Date Budget

       Episode selection report that describes rationale for selecting the modeling episodes.·       Preliminary MM5 modeling and model configuration report ·       Draft Final and Final Report on the annual MM5 modeling and model performance evaluation.·       Annual MM5 output files ·       Preliminary trajectory and Lagrangian modeling and model configuration report using the preliminary episodic MM5 modeling results;·       Draft Final and Final trajectory and Lagrangian modeling report using the annual MM5 data·       Modeling review and recommendations report

3/31/04 6/30/04 7/31/04 7/31/04 10/31/04 12/31/04

23%  

 

Task 12: Training

Proposed Training Courses Basic SMOKE/CMAQ Training

To be done at the CMAS center Manager Level Training Tribal Training Hands-on Support Training on Source Apportionment/Sensitivity

Training will be developed on an as need/as requested basis

Other High Priority Tasks, Pending Availability of Funding

Task Description Possible Funding Sources

1. Source Apportionment Further improvement of source apportionment techniques in the emissions and air quality models

EPA?

2. Global Models for Boundary Conditions

Integration of global-scale estimates of model domain boundary conditions into WRAP modeling analyses

VISTAS

3. De Minimus Fire Modeling

   

9. Fugitive Dust Testing and further improvements to the windblown dust emissions