2004 ITRS Update ORTC “Economics and Technology” Overvie · 2004 ITRS Update ORTC “Economics...
Transcript of 2004 ITRS Update ORTC “Economics and Technology” Overvie · 2004 ITRS Update ORTC “Economics...
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2004 ITRS UpdateORTC “Economics and Technology” Overview
Nodes, Chip Size, Transistors, Capacity, $ Trends
Alan Allan/Intel Corp 11/16/04 IMAPS GBC Marketing Forum
[Final Draft]
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2004(2004 ITRS Exec. Summary and ORTC”) – it’s
all about:
• Economics + Technology…and• Customers, who Buy • Products (emulated and mapped to chips)which, though the customers don’t know or
appreciate it, need Semiconductor:• Nodes• Chip Sizes• Transistors• Capacity• $
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Clear Both Economics + Technology Hurdles = Growth
90’s 21st Century
SemiconductorIndustry
TechnologyEconomics
SemiconductorIndustry
4
Wanted: CUSTOMERS, who breathe, eat, and live in…..
Materials
SemiconductorEquipment
SemiconductorsSemiconductors
Electronic End EquipmentElectronic End Equipment
Sources: NASA.gov ; SEMI
Customer Demand
Global & Regional Political & Macro-Economic Environments
Ecosystem or Foodchain?
…and who BUY, based on varying
levels of Purchasing Power,
PRODUCTS
SemiconductorEquipm
ent
&
Mater
ials
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Semiconductors is the ‘key enabler’ for wealth creation
Semiconductors is the ‘key enabler’ for wealth creation
ComputerConsumerAutomotiveCommunicationsIndustrial / MedicalDefense / Aerospace
Semiconductor industry
Internet serviceprovidersCommunicationservicesBroadcasters
Electronic industry
“Fab” equipment$28B
Source: STMicroelectronics (2003 data)
$5000B
$1000B
$166B
SERVICES(new drivers)
Traditional(drivers)
Materials$21B
SUPPORT INDUSTRIES
EDA$3B
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Products(As Defined by NEMI PEGs*)
* Product [Need] Emulator Groups
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Drivers
MPU DSPAMS Memory
Network PortableOffice
SIP/SOC(ITRS)
Applications (NEMI)
Chips /Fabrics(ITRS)
Medical Automotive Defense
ArchitecturesA1A2A3A4
Figure 1: Potential mapping approach between NEMI and ITRS roadmaps
Source: ITRS Design TWG
SIP/SOC
[Industrial]
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Cell Phone – Unit Forecast (Annual, Asia/Pacific)
Source: http://www.idg.com.sg/idgwww.nsf/UNID/279CADB92042203148256B3000171836?OpenDocument
History
Forecast“…According to industry analysts, China is a market poised for major growth in cell phone use. Some analysts estimate that by 2006 China will have about 385 million cellular customers…”
“..Despite an inventory overhang in China,iSuppli Corp. (El Segundo, Calif.) isincreasing its worldwide cellular phoneshipment forecast to 675 million unitsin 2004, up from 670 million previously.
This represents 18 percent growthcompared to 2003 [572Mu], accordingto the market research firm…”
Source: Komatsu : http://www.komsil.com/
550 650 750
Total WWide Cell Phone Units (M)
WAS (China)
IS (World)
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PC’s – Unit Forecast (Cumulative, W.Wide)
Source: Gartner DataQuest Statement, July 2002; (plus aka interpolation/extrapolation “linear/smooth curve” analysis)1975 1980 1990 2000 2010
His
tory
Fore
cast
1B
2BC
umul
ativ
e PC
Uni
ts
“…The industry analyst firm Gartner Dataquest announced this week that the PC industry has shipped the 1 billionth PC. The industry reached this milestone in April 2002, roughly 25 years after the debut of the first commercially successful and widely available personal computer, the 1974 Altair…. Gartner Dataquest calculates that the next billion PCs could ship far faster than the ones that came before. In 2008, the PC industry is projected to reach the milestone of 2 billion PCs,with the greatest growth opportunity coming from high-volume emerging markets in places such as China, Latin America, and Eastern Europe…”
’80-’90 Ave: 13M/yr
’90-’00 Ave:
75M/yr
’02-’08 Ave:
160M/yr
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WiFi – Unit Forecast (Cumulative, W.Wide)
[67% CAGR]H
isto
ry
Fore
cast
“..Today, we are in the early stages of sharing. Last year 33.2 million units were shipped. Semico predicts the market to reach 415 million units by 2008..”
-Semico Research,
New Industry ResearchMay 5, 2004
Report# DH103-04
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Nodes
12
Production Ramp-up Model and Technology NodeVo
lum
e (P
arts
/Mon
th)
1K
10K
100K
Months0-24
1M
10M
100M
AlphaTool
12 24-12
Development Production
BetaTool
ProductionTool
First Conf.
Papers
First Two CompaniesReaching
Production 2
20
200
2K
20K
200K
Source: 2003 ITRS - Exec. Summary Fig 2
Fig 2
Volu
me
(Waf
ers/
Mon
th)
13
Source: 2003 ITRS - Exec. Summary Table C
hp22hp32hp45hp65hp90
20182016
20152013
20122010
20092007
20062004
20032002[Actual]
Year of Production
hp130Technology Node [DRAM] (nm)
Technology Nodes: Back to 3-year cycle
3-Year Technology Cycle2-Year Technology Cycle [1998-2002actual]
Near Term Long Term
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Source: STRJ, ITRS PIDS ITWG Survey, ca. 2Q03
3-year Node-Cycle
2-year Node-Cycle
3-year Node-Cycle
2020
ITRS 2003: 2003/100(-110nm?) - 2019/16nm: Average 0.5x/2.5years
Company ACompany BCompany C
[DR
AM
Hal
f-Pitc
h] [DRAM]
03 04
15
2004 ITRS Renewal ORTC Table Header/”Targets” (unchanged fr.’03):2003 ITRS Technology Node Header (**Unchanged from 2001/2002 ITRS):
Near-Term Long Term Notes ---------------------------------- -------------------------------- -----
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 2018 hp90 hp65 hp45 hp32 hp22
DRAM Unchanged 100 90 80 70 65 57* 50* 45 35* 32 25* 22 18*
Other ORTC Tracked Technology Trends (optional - use by TWG Tables as needed):Poly Unchanged 107 90 80 70 65 57* 50* 45 35* 32 25* 22 18*
NEW Logic M1: 120 107 95 85 76 67 60 54 48 42 38 34 30 27 24 21
UNCHANGED:
MPU Pr GL: 65 53 45 40 35 32* 28* 25 22 20* 18 16 15* 13 11 10*
MPU Ph GL: 45 37 32 28 25 22* 20* 18 16 14* 13 11 10* 9 8 7*
* Not visible in 2001 ITRS due to no annual columns between "Near Term" and "Long Term" column ranges. The 2001 ITRS Long Term columns are retained for continuity of technology nodes.
** DRAM Half-Pitch Nodes unchanged, however cell design factor improvement has been significantly delayed in the 2003 ITRS. Node timing is based on original 2001 ITRS glossary definition of 10Ku/mo manufacturing with Production-Capable Equipment and Materials.
*** Note: Logic Half-Pitch (HP) was based on Un-contacted Logic Poly HP in 2001 ITRS. In the 2003 ITRS, Logic “Metal 1” (M1) was added and correlated with IC TWG “Local Wiring” Pitch/2[120nm/2003, plus a 3-year target cycle trend].
**
***
DRAM HP “Actual”2000 2001 2002hp180 hp130
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Chip Sizes
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2003 ITRS DRAM Chip Size Model(Rev 1, 07/23/03)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025
Year of Introduction and Production
(mm
2) Intro Chip Size (mm2)Prod Chip Size (mm2)
Max Affordable Litho Field 2001 ITRS:
572mm2 (22x26)
Max Affordable Litho Field 2003 ITRS:
704mm2 (22x32)
4 chips per Max Affordable Litho Field @
572mm2 = 143mm2 (22x6.5)
512M
1G 2G 4G 8G 32G 64G16GBits/chip:
256M
128G64M 128M
Bits/chip:
256M
128G
1G 2G
4G
8G 32G 64G
16G
256G 1T
512M
Cell Area Efficiency (CAE) = 63-73%
Cell Area Efficiency (CAE) = 63%
128 90 64 45 22 1632Node: 180 11255360 8
8.0 7.5 6.011 8.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 5.06.0Cell
Factor: 11 5.0 5.0
5 chips per Max Affordable Litho Field @
704mm2 = 141mm2 (22x6.4)
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572mm2 Litho Field Size
286mm2 2 per Field Size
800mm2 Litho Field Size
MPU Chip size (mm2) – Historical Trends vs Unchanged 2001-03 ITRS Model*
1000
100
101980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
CP MPU 140mm2
HP MPU 310mm2
CP Shrink 70mm2
* ITRS Design TWG MPU Transistors/Chip Model: ~2x/Node = 2x/2yrs from 1999 - 2001; then 2x/3yrs from 2001- 2016
*1999 Leading-Edge .18u CP MPU:
512KB (28Mt [58.3%] x 1.18u2/t = 34mm2) + 20Mt Logic x 5.19u2/t = 104mm2 + 2mm2 OH= 106mm2 = Total 48Mt x ave2.92u2/t = 140mm2
*1999 Leading-Edge .18u HP MPU:
2MB (113Mt [81.9%] x 1.18u2/t = 135mm2) + 25Mt Logic x 5.19u2/t = 130mm2 + 45mm2 OH= 310mm2 = Total 138Mt x ave2.25u2/t = 310mm2
New: 704mm2 Litho Field Size
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Transistors
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Transistors – VLSI Research May’03 [source: tci030509graphicsSPCL2.xls]
Worldwide Transistor Production
1000000
10000000
1E+08
1E+09
1E+10
1E+11
1E+12
1E+13
1E+14
1E+15
1E+16
1E+17
1E+18
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
Uni
ts
RESTRICTED DATA: for access and use only w ithin your company, as per your company's agreement w ith VLSI Research Inc. Copyright © 2003 by VLSI Research Inc.
There's no slowing of Moore's Law here!
[Tra
nsis
tors
]
[1971-2003 (1e3)^(1/16yrs) = 54% Ave CAGR]
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1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1946
…In the beginning…Bell Labs ca. 1947
Transistors – VLSI Research May’03 [source: tci030509graphicsSPCL2.xls]
Worldwide Transistor Production
1000000
10000000
1E+08
1E+09
1E+10
1E+11
1E+12
1E+13
1E+14
1E+15
1E+16
1E+17
1E+18
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
Uni
ts
RESTRICTED DATA: for access and use only w ithin your company, as per your company's agreement w ith VLSI Research Inc. Copyright © 2003 by VLSI Research Inc.
There's no slowing of Moore's Law here!
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2000
Exa-Transistors (Et) 1e18
Tera-Transistors (Tt) 1e12
Mega-Transistors (Mt) 1e06
Giga-Transistors (Gt) 1e09
Peta-Transistors (Pt) 1e15
Zeta-Xistors (1e21)
One-a-Transistor (t) 1e00
Kilo-Transistors (Kt) 1e03
“Moore’s Law” @ 2x/1yr
Integrated Circuit (IC) …
TI & Fairchild ca. 1959
“Moore’s Law” @ 2x/1.5-2yrs
ITRS -- Near Term“Moore’s Law” @ 2x/2yrs
ITRS -- Long Term“Moore’s Law” @ 2x/3yrs
[Tra
nsis
tors
] 50Pt
You are Here!
Semico (SIA): 1997Product Units (B)Discrete 197.00Analog 25.90Other Memory 3.90Other Logic 14.80SubTotal: 241.60
SubTotal: 241.60MCU 4.20MPR 1.80DRAM 3.30Flash 0.57MPU 0.26Total: 251.73
Est. from Semico: 1997Product Transistors (Pt)Discrete 0.0002Analog 0.130Other Memory 0.98Other Logic 1.78SubTotal: 2.88
SubTotal: 2.88MCU 0.84MPR 0.36DRAM 42.9Flash 1.71MPU 0.78Total: 49.47
[1971-2019 (1e3)^(1/16yrs) = 54% Ave CAGR]
100
10
1t
1Kt
1e04
Tran
sist
ors/
Chi
p
Original G. Moore Paper Electronics, 4/19/65: 2X/1YR “Components PerIntegrated Circuit” (aka Functions/Chip)“…That means that by 1975 the numberOf components per integrated circuit forMinimum cost will be 65,000…”
1e07
1Mt
1e05
1e08
1Gt
1e10
1e11
1Tt
‘05
2005 ITRS Timeframe
‘20
2x/2years 1969 (1K) – 2020 (32G)
2x/3yrs (1G/’05-32G/’20)
22
Capacity
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Technology Node Compared toActual Wafer Production Capacity Technology Node Distribution
Fig 3Fe
atur
e S
ize
(Hal
f Pitc
h) (µ
m)
Year1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20062005
Feat
ure
Size
of T
echn
olog
y
0.01
0.1
1
10
W.P.CW.P.CW.P.CW.P.CW.P.CW.P.C >0.7µm
0.7-0.4µm
0.4-0.3µm
0.3- 0.2µm
<0.16µm
0.2- 0.16µm
Source: SICAS**W.P.C.= Total Worldwide Wafer Production Capacity (Relative Value *)W.P.C
* Note: The wafer production capacity data are plotted from the SICAS* 4Q data for each year, except 2Q data for 2003.The area of each of the production capacity bars corresponds to the relative share of the Total MOS IC production start silicon area for that range of the feature size (y-axis). Data is based upon capacity if fully utilized.
<0.4µm
<0.4µm
<0.3µm
<0.3µm
<0.2µm
<0.2µm
<0.1
6µm
2004 2007
ITRS Technology Node
25% 2
5%
25% 25
%
** Source: Semiconductor Industry Capacity Statistics (SICAS) – collected from worldwide semiconductor manufacturers (estimated >90% of Total MOS Capacity) and published by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), as of July, 2003
Source: 2003 ITRS - Exec. Summary Fig 3
hp350Actual hp90 hp65hp250
Actualhp180Actual
hp130Actual
3-Yr3-Yr 2-Yr
SIA/SICAS Data:1-yr delay from ITRS
Timing to 25% of MOS IC Capacity
25%?
hp127nm
hp180nm
hp255nm
hp360nm
hp510nm
hp720nm
hp90nm
<0.11um F’cast
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ISMT/IEM [Semico] IC Product Technology Profile
140nm
180nm
255nm
360nm
650nm
690nm
820nm
225nm
770nm
910nm
127nm
90nm
65nm
45nm
290nm
400nm
560nm
460nm
* SICAS Most Leading Edge Node Range** = 25-30% of MOS IC Area, Actual
** Examples: “180nm” = 0.22u-0.18u-0.15u; “130nm” = 0.15u-0.13u-0.11u; “90nm” = 107nm-90nm-75nm
SICAS Node*
>25% of MOS IC Capacity
2003 ITRS hpXX (Actual);PrGl ; PhGL Leading Edge Mfg Roadmap “Node”
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1.00
0.40
0.10
0.20
OIC: EPROM; Mass Storage; Gate Arrays; Voice and Other; EEPROM; Std Logic; Analog / Linear
LEM: DRAM Flash LEL: MPU DSP
OLE: Graphics ; Std Cell; PLD; MROM; Chipsets; SRAM; Comm; MCU
LEM, LEL L.EdgeAverage
All Leading EdgeAverage
Other IC Average
25
$, Gestalt
26
World Electronics, Semi, Tools, Si Area, #Fabs, Wafer Units vs. GWP ($B)
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+0519
5819
6019
6219
6419
6619
6819
7019
7219
7419
7619
7819
8019
8219
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
9419
9619
9820
0020
0220
0420
06
Bili
onD
olla
rs ($
B);
Silic
on S
q.In
. (M
si/1
e4);
#Waf
ers
(w /
NPW
) (M
u/1e
4)
Tool Sales ($B) Chip Sales ($B) Electronics Sales ($B)GWP ($B) Silicon Sq. Inches (Msi/1e4) Silicon Wafers (Mu/1e4)Total # Fabs (20Kwspm - #/1e04)
Source: VLSIR, April, Sept 2001
History <-2000-> F'cast
0-1%?
8.26%
29% 47%
4.2%2.8%
47%
1%
10%
7.5% 6-8%?
7.5-10%?
15.5 %
15.5 %
5-8%?
Macro Overview – GWP, Revenue, Capacity DemandSnapshot As of 10/23/02
USA GDP AVE ~3-4%
2010
2020
$
$
$
$10% CAGR?
1 Tera-Dollar
‘00 WAS:
2005
$45T
$10T
$1.1T
$.22T
$.045T
27
Hi-Tech Revenues Worldwide
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
1000000019
60
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
(Rev
enue
s in
$M
)
ElectronicsChipsChip Equipment
RESTRICTED DATA: for access and use only w ithin your company, as per your company's agreement w ith VLSI Research Inc.Copyright © 2003 by VLSI Research Inc.
Chips and Equipment have been tracking Electronics growth rates since
1995, albeit with higher volatility.
[VLSIR ca May’03]
[~7.5% CAGR]
[~15.5% CAGR]
Past < -- 2002‘02 WAS:
28
Revenue
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Year
($M
)
Semiconductor Equipment Semiconductor ElectronicsSources: VLSI Research (1990-2002), Electronics Consultant (2003-2008)
Past Future
VLSIR History:CAGR ’90-’00 = 6.8%CAGR ’90-’01 = 5.6%
Estimate:CAGR’02-’08 = 5.8%
10% CAGR
7% -7.5%CAGR
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ITRS Ave Cost per Function vs. Industry Ave Price per Functionvs. Estimated #Industry Transistors (Final Packaged Unit)
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Mic
roce
nts
DRAM cost/bit -intro
DRAM cost/bit -prod
Cost-perf MPU -intro
Cost-perf MPU -prod
High-perf MPU -prod
Past <---> Future1e
+19
1e+18
1e+20
1e+17
1e+16
1e+15
1e+14
1e+13
1e+12
Micro- Dollar (u$)
Sources: Past: VLSI Research ca May '03 Future: ITRS
Nano- Dollar (n$)
Peta-Transistors (Pt)
Tera-Transistors (Tt)
MPU Ave Price/Xistor
(Estimated @ 65%Gross
Margin)
(@ 35% Ave Gross
(@ 35% Ave Gross
(@ 65% Ave Gross
(@ 65% Ave Gross
(@ 65% Ave Gross
DRAM Ave Price/bit (VLSIR) Industry Ave
Price/Xistor (VLSIR)
-29.3%ave CARR
Industry Est. Xistor Demand
(VLSIR)
46.8%CAGR
66.8%CAGR
Milli- Dollar (m$)
# Transistors
Exa-Transistors (Et)
Zetta-Xistors (Zt)
46.8% - 66.8 % CAGR ??
DRAM Ave Price/Bit (Estimated @ 35%
Gross Margin)
$
$
1e+21
2019/16nm Node $1T, ~10% CAGR from $145B/1999.18u 90n 45n 22n 16n.36u1.4u .72u5.6u 2.8uNode:
-25.0%ave CARR'75-'99 then
-29.3%ave
54.6%aveCAGR
$
$
30
What Can History Teach Us?
Portability & Connectivity WaveMultiple Wireless Devices
Fuel Cells, Rich Media
Source: Semico Research Corp, May’04
Internet WaveInternet Boom, Cell Phones
Digital Content
Personal ComputingAnalog WaveTV, VCR
20202020
$1T$1T
$0.5T$0.5T55thth Wave?Wave?
66thth Wave?Wave?
77thth Wave?Wave?
Growing to $1T will require a few more “Waves” of emerging Applications, Economies, and Customers!
(and, yes, a couple more wafer generations or equivalent productivity improvements!)
7.5%10%
YouAre
Here!
Total Semi 2003: $166BSource SIA/WSTS
Tota
l Sem
i Rev
enue
Tota
l Sem
i Rev
enue
Digital Wave
3” / 4 ” 5” / 6 ” 200mm 300mm “450mm” “675mm”Wafer Size
31
Summary• ITRS Node timing [DRAM Half-Pitch based] is based on the
first two leading-edge companies beginning manufacturing ramp
• ITRS Nodes [DRAM Half-Pitch based] are forecast to slow from the present 2-year to a 3-year pace after 2003, and slowing design factors are causing density to double only every technology node
• Leading-edge DRAM Product first production start Chip Sizes are targeted to remain flat at about 140mm2 for affordability, but will shrink further in size
• To keep chip sizes affordable [ie “flat”], the ITRS target “Moore’s Law” DRAM functionality per chip is slowing from 2x/1.5-2yrs to 2x/2.5-3yrs; However,
• Average “Moore’s Law” should remain 2x/2yrs through 2020• Leading-edge volume Capacity Demand, as monitored by
SICAS, is on the same 2-year pace as the ITRS nodes, with the 130nm technology range (<150nm to >110nm) reaching >25% of MOS IC capacity in 2003
32
Summary (cont.)
• There appears to be no slowing in the overall demand for transistors, which has averaged over 50% compound growth since the 70’s – a pace which increases demand 1000 times every 16 years
• To keep the cost per transistor and per bit affordable to end-use applications and consumers, the cost to manufacture transistors inside finished semiconductor devices must decrease at an average -29% compound rate
• The ITRS targets the affordable cost per function reduction target is based on a historical target of -29%, and if this cost reduction can be maintained as demand for total transistors grows at a 53-55% rate, the revenue of the industry could grow at 7.5-10% per year, reaching $1T by 2019-2025 from the 1999 level of $145B
• Of course, growing to $1T will require more emerging “Waves” of end-application demand and continous manufacturing productivity improvements!