1.5 Target: how to understand it? - IGES · 2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 百万吨...
Transcript of 1.5 Target: how to understand it? - IGES · 2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 百万吨...
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1.5℃ Target: how to understand it?
ERI, ChinaERI, China
Jiang Kejun
Energy Research InstitutePeking University
Japan-China Climate Policy Research Workshop 2017
Beijing , 6-7 Sep. 2017,
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2oC Scenarios
Remaining CO2 budget vs.residual fossil emissions
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1.5oC Scenarios
Cum
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2016
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0CO
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O2]
1.5o
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2oC
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2oC Scenarios
Luderer et al., in preparation Preliminary results
Residual emissions determined by • Pace of decarbonization• Configuration of (net) zero-carbon
and zero-emissions societyMain mitigation options:
• Demand reductions & efficiency improvements
• Electrification• switch to biomass / hydrogen / other
carbon-neutral fuels• Dietary changes, Synthetic feed and
meat• CDR & CCU
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Consistent global and national emissions constraints
Preliminary results
[100
0 G
tCO
2]
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CO2 Emission
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1.5度
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一次能源需求量,1.5℃情景A
Bio-Diesel
Ethonal
Biomass
PowerSolar
Wind
Nuclear
Hydro
N.Gas
Oil
Primary energy demand in China
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Coal Coke Oil
百万
吨标
煤
年均下降量,终端能源
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2040
2040-2050
Decrease of final energy demand
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e煤炭消费量
其他
居民
供热
炼焦
建材
钢铁
发电
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分部门终端能源需求
Rural Residential
Urban Residential
Service
Transport
Industry
Agriculture
Final Energy Demand by Sector
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CO2排放量, 1.5度情景
CO2 Emission, 1.5℃
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Near Zero Emission in Transport
Electric car/fuel cell car: 100% of market in 2025
Large vehicle:fuel cell vehicle by 2035
Vessel/ship:fuel cell by 2035
Airplane:biofuel by 2035,fuel cell starts from 2040
Other transport: electricity driven
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四、影响电动汽车发展的主要制约因素分析
4. Analysis Major Constraints Factors 3.3 电动汽车实现经济性的趋势分析 Trend Analysis on EVs
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Ethonal
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Near Zero Emission in Building
No fossil fuel use in building
Cooking:electrified,2035-2040
Space heating:electricity
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Low emission in industry
Raising share of electricitydriven by electric motorsteel making: recycled steel with electric arc furnacerecycled metals
CCS utilization:steel making, cement manufacture
New industrial process: Reduction by hydrogen
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%CCS安装率
Clinker
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CCS Utilization in industry
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高效照明【如 LED照明】
光伏电池
能源检测系统
(家用电器)
生态生活教育
减少 60% 采暖需求,普及率70%
(25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池,转换效率接近30%
COP =8, 普及率 100%
超高效空调
太阳热利用
普及率: 20-60%(目前 6%)
热泵采暖
COP=5普及率 30-70%
燃料电池
普及率 0-20%
高效绝热
减少50%照明需求,普及率 100%
待机电源耗电
降低1/3 ,普及率100%
2050年的低碳住宅舒适和节能
屋顶植被
5
太阳能利用
高效家用电器减少能源需求,支持舒适和安全生活方式
向公众提供经济和环境信息促使大家成为
低碳消费
减少10-20% 能源需求
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CO2 Emission
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Scenario Analysis:JapanKoreaChinaIndiaThailandMalaysiaIndonesiaNepalVietnamCambodiaLaosPhilippine
A 2 degree Asia: A good way to understand the global target
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China’s FDI and ODI,1995-2014,US$100million
Low Carbon/Green Strategy for China’s Oversea Investment
ODI FDI
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京津冀地区PM2.5浓度严重超标
2013-2015年PM2.5年均浓度2013年74个城市PM2.5年均浓度
2013年京津冀地区所有城市PM2.5年均浓度均超标,区域内PM2.5年平均浓度达106µg/m3,虽2014、2015年空气质量有所改善,但仍大幅超过国家空气质量二级标准。
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实现WHO推荐标准,能源活动PM2.5相关排放为0