11 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Gordon Bell Senior Researcher Microsoft Corporation...

11© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.

Gordon BellSenior Researcher

Microsoft Corporation

November 1999

The Colonization of Cyberspace

The Colonization of Cyberspace


In Silicon Valley, the Internet is all we think about. Is it just

greed???• The internet has created (redistributing)

more wealth than any other phenomena.• $200 B valuation; $2 B sales; -$0.2M

return.• WWW may be grossly over-hyped! • Long run, the hype is likely to be justified.• USA is <5% of the world population.• Silicon Valley is <0.01% of this

population. • More people learning English in China

than speak it in the rest of the world


Why organizations e.g. governments and companies

don’t yet understand it• No direct experience (children tell them)

computing has advanced rapidly because we like to building systems for our use

• Inward looking when at home… inertia and there are always other problems and interruptions to deal with

• We mix among like professionals • The change is exponential:

You don’t see it coming.The past may not matter! It is hard to understand until it is you.


Agenda

• Everything cyberizable will be put into cyberspace! Goal, quest, or fate?

• The demand side• Platform, network, and cyberization

technologies evolution• Internet (PC)-TV gateway: TV and audio• Internet-POTS gateway: handhelds &

phones• The race toward E-Services startups!• Some apps:

Administrivia and financial industries Telepresentations Telecollaboration


Region/Region/IntranetIntranet

Campus,Campus,including SANsincluding SANs

HomeHome

On BodyOn Body

WorldWorld

ContinentContinent

Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace! Goal? Quest? or

Fate?

Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

CarCar

In BodyIn Body


Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information

• Coupling to all information and information processors e.g. people

• Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video

• Bit tokens e.g. money, stock• State of: places, things, and people • State of: physical networks


Internet boom hurts overnite delivery


Book page


Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space

ComputationComputation

CommunicationCommunication CyberizationCyberizationPrograms, Content & Messages

Services based on content!


DataData

Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020

TelephonyTelephony

TelevisionTelevision

Will we have gateways?


Demand: All the graphs go up and to the right

... after 25 years!


Percent of homes with WWW Coverage


Purchasing on the net


Internetters growth

‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

Internet GrowthInternet Growthextrapolated at 98% per yearextrapolated at 98% per year

World PopulationWorld Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per yearextrapolated at 1.6% per year

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0


Growth in hype vs reality

Infoway speculation“how great it’ll be” (politicians

Infoway regulation

conferences

WWW

Infoway addiction

lawsuits

Data from Gordon’s WAG

books,newspapers


Several near term bets I’ve made

2001: NOT One billion internet users (N. Negroponte)

2001: 1/2 of commercial PCs will have cameras (Gray)

2001: NOT 10K WSs communicate @ 1 Gbps (Reddy)

2004: NOT More LEPs than LCDs or E-ink… (Hauser, Prod. Mgr. E-ink)


Why the bet of 1 billion users on the net is a keystone bet!

It determines the market for networks for access devices… especially PCs

It says something about the utility commerce communication entertainment

Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables phones videophones television serendipity


What technology will we build with? How will it evolve?


The two great inventions

The computer (1946… realised in 1948). Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans Memories come in a hierarchy of sizes, speeds, and

prices… the challenge is to exploit them Computers are built from other computers in a

iterative, layered, and recursive fashion

The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated Circuit (1957). Processors, memories, switching, and transduction are

the primitives in well-defined hardware-software levels A little help from magnetic, photonic, and other

transducer technologies


0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996P

erf

orm

an

ce in

Mfl

op

/s

Micros

Supers

8087 802876881

80387

R2000

i860

RS6000/540Alpha

RS6000/590Alpha

Cray 1S

Cray X-MP

Cray 2 Cray Y-MP Cray C90Cray T90

1998

Growth of microprocessor performance

1980

1982


Bell’s Law of Computer Class Formation

Technology enables two evolutionary paths:1. constant performance, decreasing cost2. constant price, increasing performance

1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .621.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62

MiniMini

HandheldHandheld ?? ??TimeTime

Mainframes (central)Mainframes (central)

PCs (personals)PCs (personals)Lo

g p

rice

Lo

g p

rice

WSsWSs


•

Bell’s Nine Computer Price Tiers

Super server: costs more than $100,000,000“Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million

an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports

1$: embeddables e.g. greeting card 10$: wrist watch & wallet computers

100$: pocket/ palm/telephone 1,000$: portable computers 10,000$: personal computers (desktop) 100,000$: departmental computers

(closet) 1,000,000$: site computers (glass house) 10,000,000$: regional computers (glass

castle) 100,000,000$: national centers


Platform evolution: What do they do that’s useful?

How do they communicate?


Connected PCsConnected PCs(WWW)(WWW)Discrete PCDiscrete PC

(email)(email)

Info AppliancesInfo Appliances

Hand-helds

Cellphones &phone access

Game Consoles

Set-tops & NCs

9M Units60M Units

250M Units

1985 1995 2005Sources: Network Computer Inc. & IDC

Changing Internet access


Number of U.S. Subscribers using high speed interconnections

0

12

3

4

56

7

8

9

1999 2001 2003

Cable DSL Wireless SatelliteNXGEN


0

0.2

0.4

0.8

2.0

199719981999200020012002

Circuit data<9.6kbps

HSCSD57.6kbps

GPRS115kbps

EDGE384kbps

UMTS2Mbps

0.1

The evolution of wireless data

standards


Nomadicity

Video...

Plus >>B/W

Universality

USA Today 1 Sept. 99


Radio


Ch 54 (Boulder) announcement

9/8/99


1988 Federal Plan for Internet

3333© 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved.1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

10 Tbps

100 Tbps

1 Tbps

100 Gbps

10 Gbps

1 Gbps

100 Mbps

10 Mbps

1 Mbps

100 Kbps

10 Kbps

1 Kbps

100 bps

10 bps

1 Pbps

Voice Traffic

56 KB

T1T3

OC-3OC-12

OC-48OC-192

OC-768

Voice Crossover

Internet TrafficMax. Port Speed

$100 M

$10 M

$1 M

$100 K

$100 K

1997 Breakpoint

Delay Engineered

Capacity E

ngineere

d

Max. Switch Speed

100 Pbps

10 Pbps

Internet growths vs timecourtesy of Dr. Larry Roberts


Desktop-desktop @ 1 gbps

2x 1GbE3x 1GbE

G8 Sonet

SC99NOCGigaPop

Juniper M40Cisco 12008

WestinGigaPop

Juniper M40

G2 SonetOC12 Sonet

Cisco 1800

G2 SonetOC12 Sonet

Juniper M40 NCSAUW

University of Washington Microsoft

Nortel NetworksNTON

SC99 @ Portland

1 Gbps5x 270 Mbps

HDTV streams= 1 Gbps

OC-48 = 2,488.32 Mbps = G2OC192 = 9,953.28 Mbps = G8

2x 1GbE3x 1GbE

G8 Sonet

SC99NOCGigaPop

Juniper M40Cisco 12008

WestinGigaPop

Juniper M40

G2 SonetOC12 Sonet

Cisco 1800

G2 SonetOC12 Sonet

Juniper M40 NCSAUW

University of Washington Microsoft

Nortel NetworksNTON

SC99 @ Portland

1 Gbps1 Gbps5x 270 Mbps

HDTV streams= 1 Gbps

OC-48 = 2,488.32 Mbps = G2OC192 = 9,953.28 Mbps = G8

http://research.microsoft.com/~gray/papers/Win2K_1Gbps.doc


Mail/ FTP/ Telnet WWW Audio Video

Voice!Voice!

StandardsStandards

Increase Capacity(circuits & b/w)

Lower response time

Create newservice

Increased Demand

Virtuous cycle of bandwidth


Minutes to transfer various data

0.10

1.00

10.00

100.00

1 Floppy 20 Flop's 100 MBy 600 MBy 1.9 GBy 9 GBy

POTS

ISDN

T1

Eth'net

25 Mb


In a decade we can/will have:more powerful personal computers

processing 10-100x 4x resolution (2K x 2K); Very large, room sized displays? Very small watch-sized displays low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use

adequate networking???? ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs

One chip, networked platforms including light bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc.

Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) sharewatch, pocket, body implant, home

more cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.


Storing all we’ve read (written), heard (said), &

seen (participated in or presented)Human data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetimeread text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G

speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 Gspeech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T

video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 Tvideo 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T

video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P


Living in Cyberspace… the home infrastructure

being always connected is essential

...or why cable tv or ADSL or ubiquitous fast, wireless is

critical for continued growth


Infrastructure


HomeCATV

Analog/digital cable distribution

PC broadcasts are mixed into home CATV in analog and/or MPEG digital

Ethernet Home network

Video capture

“milliBill”

Basic ideas:

1. PC records or plays thru video cable channels. 2. PC “broadcasts” art images, webcams, presentations,

videos, DVDs, etc.3. Ethernet not cable?

Settopbox

Another big bang? Internet to TV and audio:

The Net, PC meet the TV


PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillgUsing PCs to drive large screens

e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels

Gordon BellJim Gemmell

Bay Area Research CenterMicrosoft Research Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation


PCTV:A home CATV Server

Television/Computing Convergence •A PC server broadcasts “content*” to

TV sets directly or to all sets using the home CATV distribution•The PC captures TV streams for filtering, storage, replay, etc. ala TiVO and ReplayTV•Cameras and the web provide content*Content: art, photos, PPT Albums, webcams, plain old TV, home video, DVD, MTV, games…

For display on 16 x 9 format … or 852 x 480 Fujitsu Plasma Panel


I stretched I stretched the canvas.the canvas.


Cousins, Aunts, Uncles etc.


Webcams


Voice to WEBVoice to WEBBridgeBridge

Web ServerWeb Server

TheTheWebWeb

DataBaseDataBase

PSTNPSTN

The Next ConvergencePOTS connects to the Web

a.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways


Enable voice and text access on phones, screen phones, PDAs and other devices to existing Internet infrastructure in an intelligent, customizable way.

WebOnPhonWebOnPhonee

Mission:Mission:

WebOnPhone


All the services build on the evolving infrastructure


Internet (circa 1999)Courtesy of Zindigo Ventures

TransportTransportNetwork Hardware/ProtocolsNetwork Hardware/Protocols

Computers & Operating Layer SoftwareComputers & Operating Layer SoftwareApplications & MiddlewareApplications & Middleware

Info

ba

se s

/Po

r ta l

sIn

f ob

as

e s/P

ort

als

Pro

cur e

men

tP

r ocu

r em

ent

Co

mm

un

i ca t

ion

Co

mm

un

i cat

ion

Su

pp

l y C

hai

nS

up

ply

Ch

a in

ER

PE

RP

Pro

f ess

i on

a lP

r of e

ssi o

nal

Fin

anci

a lF

inan

cial

Op

era t

ion

sO

per

atio

ns

Mar

ket i

ng

Mar

ket i

ng

Internet Services$170B*

Infrastructure$171B*

AccessAccessPersonal/Employee DataPersonal/Employee Data

Go

vern

men

tG

ove

rnm

ent

Content SyndicatorsContent SyndicatorsContent Syndication

$2B+ **

Web HostingWeb Hosting


The Nature of E-services Only electrons, no atoms e.g. inventory Verticals: ERP, benefits, time card, travel,

performance rev, payroll, calendars, procurement, facilities, marketing tools,

Transaction (filing, retrieval) under control of individual from browser, not an administrator, department, or corporation

Alternative to: manual, home grown apps, or retooled large legacy licensed apps e.g. Oracle, Peoplesoft, SAP

Information is stored at the service NOT on premise with the organization providing it

Service up and running instantaneously.


ERP E-Services

Definition:ERP E-services provide human resources and theback office (time and expense reporting, invoicing,purchase order management, hiring and performance plans) as an outsourced monthly Web service.


Http://wwww.medicalogic.com

Internet-based service for keeping medical records electronically …EMR

No on site or in office equipment except a browser and printer

Facilities rapid input and record retrieval accessible anywhere at anytime patient accessible prescription drug interaction, advice, etc.


MS internal home for adminstrivia


Paperless paychecks


Stock options


Impact on the financial industries:Eliminating the atoms that

represent money, ownership, … risk

and replacing them with electrons…


New or old money… it’s just bits

Prepaid

Credit

Cash

Check

ATM /

Prepaid


Put those checks & statements in Cyberspace or eliminate them!


Buying & selling stock: what a pain!Faxes? (Electronic signatures are becoming “legal”.)

Acrobat 4 has tamper-proof signatures!


Paperless transactions: put them all in Cyberspace


Telepresentations: The 2nd killer app?


Telepresentations Being there (e.g. meeting, lecture,

conference) Without Really Being There (or Then)Presenter or audience need not be physically present Reach a wider audience

“I have a schedule conflict.” Anybody with a web connection can participate

Reduce costs No need to travel to attend or participate in a presentation

Education & training, corporate communication


TelepresentationElementsSlidesAudioVideoScript,

text comments, hyperlinks,etc.


Telepresentations will be a well-defined app by

2001.ACM97 was the first telepresented

conference with Mbone multicast & servers that host the conference cf. http://www.research.microsoft.com/acm97

Bet: More people will view the conference from Cyberspace than that attended it.

Big question: will telepresentation technology AKA tele-learning affect learning and education?


Telecollaboration… The next “killer tele-app”?? Or just a tremendous challenge

interacting to achieve a common objective … basically, its communications enabling or disabling people


Telework: It takes screens, sound, and bandwidth, stupid

http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/


How to Fail at Videoconferencing

Lack of ubiquity: it must obey Metcalfe’s LawCall set up: hard, time-consuming, require training Small screens, destroy spatiality,

eliminate visual cuesNo gaze awareness, limit screen area; only

2-D figures or avatarsAudio: high latency and poor qualityFail to beat the competition!

The phone is ubiquitous, requires no manuals or training, low latency, ok audio

The targets: audio quality, 3-D in every sense, and gaze awareness


Four steps to video-telephony enabling telemeetings

Very low cost IP telephony must first become ubiquitous (bandwidth, jitter, lower latency)

Evolve audio to provide spatial awareness aka stereo and quad.

Add multi-party, scalability, mbone…Make recording easy. This will enable

meeting persistence and minutes.


End

11 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Gordon Bell Senior Researcher Microsoft Corporation...

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Transcript of 11 © 1999 by Gordon Bell. All Rights Reserved. Gordon Bell Senior Researcher Microsoft Corporation...