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Transcript of 1 Rural-Urban Interdependence in the New Economy Bill.Reimer @concordia.ca Bill.Reimer @concordia.ca...
1
Rural-Urban Interdependence in the New Economy
Rural-Urban Interdependence in the New Economy
nre.concordia.cawww.crrf.ca
2009/01/302009/01/30
Tom Beckley
Ray Bollman
David Bruce
Omer Chouinard
Ivan Emke
Greg Halseth
Bruno Jean
Patrice LeBlanc
Dianne Looker
Diane Martz
Solange Nadeau
John Parkins
Steve Plante
Doug Ramsey
Richard Stedman
Ellen Wall
Derek Wilkinson
Anna Woodrow
OutlineOutline
•What is rural-urban interdependence?What is rural-urban interdependence? Trade and exchangeTrade and exchange InstitutionsInstitutions EnvironmentEnvironment IdentityIdentity
•What strategic actions does it suggest for What strategic actions does it suggest for communities, urban centres, provinces? communities, urban centres, provinces? 8 Suggestions8 Suggestions
2
3
Canadian Rural Revitalization FoundationCanadian Rural Revitalization FoundationThe NRE Rural ObservatoryThe NRE Rural Observatory
…an International
Network
…an International
Network
Interdependence through TradeInterdependence through Trade
4
Population trends: Rural minority in Canada in 1931
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991
Rural (centres under 1,000)
Urban (centres 1,000+)
Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1851 - 1996.
6
Interdependence through TradeInterdependence through Trade
•Price of transporting goods has Price of transporting goods has dropped, transporting people has dropped, transporting people has increasedincreased
•Commodity communities shrinkingCommodity communities shrinking•Urban dependent on commoditiesUrban dependent on commodities
7
Canadian Balance of Trade 2007Canadian Balance of Trade 2007
8
Interdependence through TradeInterdependence through Trade
•Price of transporting goods has Price of transporting goods has dropped, transporting people has dropped, transporting people has increasedincreased
•Commodity communities shrinkingCommodity communities shrinking•Urban dependent on commoditiesUrban dependent on commodities•Rural manufacturing remains strongRural manufacturing remains strong
Interdependence through Trade:Improving competitiveness
Interdependence through Trade:Improving competitiveness
9
http://www.warnerhockeyschool.com/http://www.warnerhockeyschool.com/
http://www.villagedeslilas.com/index.phphttp://www.villagedeslilas.com/index.php
10
Interdependence through TradeInterdependence through Trade
•Price of transporting goods has Price of transporting goods has dropped, transporting people has dropped, transporting people has increasedincreased
•Commodity communities shrinkingCommodity communities shrinking•Urban dependent on commoditiesUrban dependent on commodities•Rural manufacturing remains strongRural manufacturing remains strong•Metro-adjacent communities growMetro-adjacent communities grow
11
Institutional InterdependenceInstitutional Interdependence
• Services regionalize, specialize, standardize, Services regionalize, specialize, standardize, professionalizeprofessionalize
• General policies insensitive to local conditionsGeneral policies insensitive to local conditions• Bureaucratic norms are challenging for ruralBureaucratic norms are challenging for rural• Innovations in governance can create opportunitiesInnovations in governance can create opportunities
Institutional Interdependence:Innovation
Institutional Interdependence:Innovation
12
Nelson HydroNelson Hydro
http://www.mwmc.ca/http://www.mwmc.ca/
13
Interdependence through Environments
Interdependence through Environments
•Water, food, footprints, global warming Water, food, footprints, global warming restructure interdependence understandingrestructure interdependence understanding
http://cwconline.org/http://cwconline.org/ http://www.fraserbasin.bc.cahttp://www.fraserbasin.bc.ca
14
Interdependence through IdentityInterdependence through Identity
•New interdependence challenges local New interdependence challenges local identitiesidentities
• Immigration reinforces urban hegemonyImmigration reinforces urban hegemony
15
Trade and exchangeTrade and exchange
Rural and Urban are InterdependentRural and Urban are Interdependent
InstitutionsInstitutions
IdentityIdentityEnvironmentEnvironment
16
StrategiesStrategies• Look to urban demandLook to urban demand• Identify global niche marketsIdentify global niche markets• Integrate strangersIntegrate strangers• Build social infrastructureBuild social infrastructure• Build all capacitiesBuild all capacities• Make interdependencies visibleMake interdependencies visible• Consider regional opportunitiesConsider regional opportunities• Create venues for collaborationCreate venues for collaboration
17
Strategy:Look to urban demand
Strategy:Look to urban demand
Strategy: Identify niche marketsStrategy: Identify niche markets
18
http://www3.sympatico.ca/remi.rioux/lacledeschamps/http://www3.sympatico.ca/remi.rioux/lacledeschamps/
http://www.fibroconcept.com/http://www.fibroconcept.com/http://www.ccare.ca/http://www.ccare.ca/
Strategy: Integrate strangersStrategy: Integrate strangers
19http://www.scses.winkleronline.com/http://www.scses.winkleronline.com/
Strategy: Build Social InfrastructureStrategy: Build Social Infrastructure
• HealthHealth Public health nursesPublic health nurses Alcohol/Drug counselingAlcohol/Drug counseling Safe House ProjectSafe House Project Victim AssistanceVictim Assistance Block parentsBlock parents Al-AnonAl-Anon Literacy GroupLiteracy Group Take-Off-poundsTake-Off-pounds
• RecreationRecreation Darts clubDarts club Minor hockeyMinor hockey TR Boards, BikesTR Boards, Bikes Curling clubCurling club Happy HookersHappy Hookers Red Hat SocietyRed Hat Society Quilt GuildQuilt Guild Museum FoundationMuseum Foundation Ornothology GroupOrnothology Group Legion Legion Community Arts CouncilCommunity Arts Council
20
• EducationEducation• Books Lapsit ProgramBooks Lapsit Program• TR Children’s CentreTR Children’s Centre• Northern Lights CollegeNorthern Lights College
Tumbler Ridge ExamplesTumbler Ridge Examples
21
Strategy: Make Interdependencies VisibleStrategy: Make Interdependencies Visible
•FoodFood
•WaterWater
•EnvironmentEnvironment
Strategy: Think RegionallyStrategy: Think Regionally
22
Strategy: Venues for collaborationStrategy: Venues for collaboration
23
MRCsMRCs REDAsREDAs
Collaboration lessonsCollaboration lessons
•Strong regional institutionsStrong regional institutions
•Multiple venues of interactionMultiple venues of interaction
•Clear rules of accountability and Clear rules of accountability and representationrepresentation
•Common language and understandingCommon language and understanding
•Patience and tolerancePatience and tolerance
24
Budget for BreakageBudget for Breakage
ConclusionsConclusions
•Rural and Urban are interdependentRural and Urban are interdependent
•Commodity economics are a rural burdenCommodity economics are a rural burden
•Agglomeration economies are trumpAgglomeration economies are trump
•Look for local assets and competitive Look for local assets and competitive advantage advantage
•Facilitate regional collaborationFacilitate regional collaboration
•Build local capacities (including social Build local capacities (including social infrastructure)infrastructure)
25
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Rural-Urban Interdependence in the New Economy
Rural-Urban Interdependence in the New Economy
nre.concordia.cawww.crrf.ca
2009/01/302009/01/30
Tom Beckley
Ray Bollman
David Bruce
Omer Chouinard
Ivan Emke
Greg Halseth
Bruno Jean
Patrice LeBlanc
Dianne Looker
Diane Martz
Solange Nadeau
John Parkins
Steve Plante
Doug Ramsey
Richard Stedman
Ellen Wall
Derek Wilkinson
Anna Woodrow
Population trends: Rural minority in Ontario in 1911
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
Rural (outside centres of 1,000 or more)
Urban (centres 1,000+)
Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1851 - 2001. Return
28
Truck transport prices have fallen since the late 1970s
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
196
1
196
3
196
5
196
7
196
9
197
1
197
3
197
5
197
7
197
9
198
1
198
3
198
5
198
7
198
9
199
1
199
3
199
5
199
7
199
9
200
1
Implicit price index of the output of the truck transportation sector,relative to the GDP implicit price index (1986=100)
Source: Statistics Canada, GDP Implicit Price Index.
Figure 3
Return
29
Global exposure means low population growth
Global exposure means low population growth
-5
0
5
10
15
20
low medium high
Exposure to the Global Economy
%popchg
1986-911991-961996-01
Constant boundary CSDsConstant boundary CSDsReturn
30
Ontario International Balance of Trade 2007
Ontario International Balance of Trade 2007
Return
Auto
Auto
Rural and Small Town Canada has been gaining manufacturing employment,
relative to Canada as a whole
y = 0.1316x + 21.624
R2 = 0.6503
y = 0.1344x + 16.512
R2 = 0.47
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
*
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
Percent of Canada's manufacturing workers residing in rural and small town areas
Rural and Small Town = NSRU
Rural and Small Town = non-CMA/CA
Rural and Small Town = non-CMA/CA
Linear (Rural and Small Town = NSRU)
Linear (Rural and Small Town = non-CMA/CA)
Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey. Non-self representing units (NSRUs) are smaller municipalities (generally less than 10,000 population). A Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) has a core population of 100,000 or more and includes neighbouring muncipalities where 50 percent or more of the workforce commutes to the core. A Census Agglomeration (CA) has a core population of 10,000 to 99,999 and includes neighbouring municipalities where 50 percent or more of the workforce commutes to the core. Rural and small town areas are non-CMA/CA areas. An asterisk (*) indicates some of the change may be due to a change in the survey design.
Return
Interdependence through Trade:Commuting
Interdependence through Trade:Commuting
32http://crerl.usask.ca/infrastructure/maps.phphttp://crerl.usask.ca/infrastructure/maps.php
Return
33
Communal
Build all types of capacitiesBuild all types of capacities
Market
R ob sonE con om ic
Jon esS oc ia l
P o lsonP o lit ica l
S m ithP res id en t
Bureaucratic
Associative
Associative-based:Shared interests
E.g. recreation, charity, religious groups
Market-based:Contractual, short-term, supply and demand
E.g. commerce, labour, housing, trade
Bureaucratic-based:Rationalized roles, principles
E.g. government, law, corporations
Communal-based:Generalized reciprocity, identity, birthE.g. families, cultural groups, gangs
Return
Health Professionals - LocalHealth Professionals - Local
Services – All Sites (% yes)Services – All Sites (% yes) 19981998 20052005
DoctorsDoctors 47.447.4 42.142.1
NursesNurses 52.652.6 36.836.8
DentistsDentists 36.836.8 31.631.6
OptometristOptometrist 15.815.8 21.121.1
Dental surgeonDental surgeon 15.815.8 10.510.5
Home care visitsHome care visits 47.447.4 68.468.4
Social workersSocial workers 42.142.1 26.326.3 Return
Boards of Directors & FundingBoards of Directors & Funding
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GovernmentFunding
CommunityFunding
MembershipFunding
Revenue fromServices
Board 2003Board 2005No Board 2003No Board 2005
ReturnNext
Staff & FundingStaff & Funding
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GovernmentFunding
CommunityFunding
MembershipFunding
Revenue fromServices
Mixed vol & pd 2003
Mixed vol & pd 2005
Strictly vol 2003
Strictly vol 2005
Return
Source: Statistics Canada, Based on Catologue Nos. 91-213 and 91-520Source: Statistics Canada, Based on Catologue Nos. 91-213 and 91-520
Immigration is an increasingly important component of population growth.Immigration is an increasingly important component of population growth.
ReturnNext
Source: Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada.Citizenship and Immigration Canada.
Canada has welcomed over 1 million immigrants during the first five years of the millennium Canada has welcomed over 1 million immigrants during the first five years of the millennium
2002: Immigration 2002: Immigration and Refugee and Refugee Protection ActProtection Act
ReturnNext
Recent and new immigrants represented a low share of the predominantly rural population
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Predominantlyurban regions
Intermediateregions
All predominantlyrural regions
Rural metro-adjacent regions
Rural non-metro-adjacent regions
Rural northernregions
Percent of total population who are immigrants, 2001
New immigrants (1996-2001)
Recent immigrants (1981-1996)
Predominantly rural regionsStatistics Canada, Census of Populaton, 2001
Return
40
Social Cohesion mitigates external context
Social Cohesion mitigates external context
Fluctuating Economy
Market-based SoCo
Bureaucratic-based
SoCo
AverageHH Income
Global with Bureaucraticor Local with non-
Bureaucratic
-$7,000
+$4,500 -$680
+$2,000
External factors have significant effects
Social cohesion can mitigate these effects
The relations are often conditional
$47,000$47,000
Return