1

Energy to Power the World: II

Fossil Fuel (continued)How it’s used, who uses itHow long will it last?

2

Today’s oil is yesterday’s plankton Small marine and lake organisms live in

surface waters They die, fall to the bottom and get buried into

an organic rich sedimentary layer If geologic processes heat and squeeze

these rocks sufficiently, they will create crude oil and natural gas from the fossils

Crude oil and natural gas will migrate toward the surface

Geologic traps must exist to create an oil field

3

Examples of geologic traps

“pumping oil out is like sucking liquid out of a sponge”

Folded impermeable rock Faulted impermeable rock

44

Oil floats on water!

55

Similar toCS Fig. 19.11

6

What it has taken the Earth millions of years to form, we will use up in <1,000 years

7

That pesky second law of thermodynamics! 1/2 of all the energy in

primary fuels is lost during conversion to useable forms

2/3 of energy in coal is lost in power plant conversion to electricity

3/4 of energy in crude oil is lost by the time you finish burning it as gas in your car

8

One gallon of gasoline Contains ~6 pounds of C

When it burns, the C combines with O to make ~ 20 pounds of CO2

Took about 196,000 pounds of ancient biomass to make About the same as in 1 acre of wheat Since 1751, our species has used the equivalent

from all types of fossil fuels of about 13,300 years of biomass production by all plants on earth.

Source: http://www.greenuniversity.net/Green_Economics/carbondioxide.htm

9

10

Figure 19_02

CS Fig. 19.2

11

Table 19_01

12

Table 19_02

13

Global energy sources

CS Fig. 19.3

14

US energy consumption 2010

CS Fig. 19.4

1515

161660% of oil imported

17

US Energy Flow 2003

66% of oil imported

18

US Oil supply61.2%

importedMiddle

East oil 3rd

Canadian oil from tar sands

19

US Oil imports

20

U.S. Is Producing More and Using Less Oil

Analysts also point out that the U.S. is producing more oil domestically while reducing its dependence on oil in general. The recent recession and the slow economic recovery have

dampened demand for oil products. But "the big story is that the U.S. has really expanded production over the past several years," says Crane, citing the production of oil from shale in North Dakota and other states.

The country has also become more energy efficient, building cars with better gas mileage and shifting away from oil-based energy.

"Whereas the U.S. has been the biggest consumer of oil products in the world, the role of oil is smaller than it was in the '70s, and even than it was in the '90s," Crane says.

But the U.S. still spends huge sums on oil because the rise in world prices has more than made up for the drop in U.S. imports. "Five years ago, we were importing 10 million barrels a day, but at

$50 a barrel," says Rapier. "Now we're at 8.4 million barrels, but at prices over $100 a barrel."

Source: National Public Radio

2121

22

Demographics of Energy Use The 20 richest countries consume

80% of natural gas 65% of oil 50% of coal

US and Canada have 5% of world population, use 25% of available energy Each person in US and Canada uses 60 barrels of

oil per year – more than an Ethiopian would use in a lifetime

Developed countries that import a large proportion of their fuel have better conservation methods

2323

2424

HOW LONG WILL IT LAST?

25

2626

Proven OilReserves

CS Fig 19.13

2727

CS Fig. 19.16

The End of Cheap Oil

Campbell and LaherrereScientific American, 1998On Reserve in Library (Preventing the next oil crunch)

28

29

Early steady growth in US oil production

C & L, p. 78

30

What oil companies would have you believe

1,020 billion barrels of oil in reserve that will be just as cheap as it is today (that is, as it was in 1998)

Production can continue at 1998 levels or higher for many decades to come

31

What Campbell and Laherrere would have you believe

Production will not remain constant for very long

The last bucket of oil is not as easy to remove as the first

32

Hubbert Curve Flow of oil starts to

fall when ~1/2 of crude oil is gone

In 1956, M. King Hubbert of Shell Oil used this curve to successfully predict US peak in production in 1970 C & L, p. 80

33

Global discovery peaked in 1960

Industry has found 90% of oil that exists

C & L, p. 82

34

All US Oil fields

Finite Resource!

35

All US Oil fields

Slope of curve in Previous figure

Data Hubbert hadavailable

Data after Hubbert’sprediction

Price

Wellsdrilled

36

Expenses in US oil exploration

Return on investment

37

How long will it last?

Perhaps more importantly, when will it become expensive?!

C & L, p. 81

Similar to Fig. 19.12

38

World Oil Production, real and projected as of 2004

http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/

39

Major conclusionsUS oil production peaked in 1970Norway has already peakedWorld production will peak this decade!By 2002, Mid-East will have control over

major part of supply

40

Oil will get (stay) expensive! 1,150 billion barrels left* At current rate, 30 billion barrels/year*, will

last ~40 years However, will start to decline in production

within 5 years, so will last longer, but at reduced level

Oil shales and tar sands may help ease pain, but will have environmental consequences http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/0

3/canadian-oil-sands/essick-photography

*Statistics from US Dept of Energy

41

Oil Drum.com (Bloomberg) -- Boone Pickens, a billionaire energy

investor, said world oil supply won't exceed 85 million barrels a day because of high depletion rates of existing wells. Pickens, 79, the founder and chairman of Dallas-based BP Capital LLC, said today in a speech at Georgetown University, that the price of crude oil will only continue to climb and demand will eventually be dampened.

``There is only 85 million barrels of oil globally in the market coming a day and I don't think you can increase that 85 million,'' Pickens said. April 2008

42

World Oil Consumption and Production, 2001, 2010, and 2025

77.1

91.5

120.8

77.0

91.1

120.6

2001 2010 2025 2001 2010 20250.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Mill

ion

Bar

rel s

per

Day

Industrialized

Developing Asia

Other

Consumption Production

OPEC

EE/FSUOther

US DOE Annual Energy Outlook 2005

43

"The fundamental driver of the 20th Century's economic prosperity has been an abundant supply of cheap oil.... Middle East share ... is now about 30%. Unlike in the 1970s, this time it is set to continue to rise.... Share will likely reach 35% by 2002 and 50% by 2009. By then, the Middle East too will be close to its depletion midpoint, and unable to sustain production much longer irrespective of investment or desire."

C. J. CampbellOil and Gas Journal, March 20, 2000

44

44

The USGS estimates thateconomically recoverable oil is just 152 days of supply

45

ANWAR

46

US Oil “Drill Baby Drill”?120 billion barrels of oil left in US, but

only 21 are proven in-place This would last 4 years!

The End

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