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Chapter 2

PopulationUpdated 9/07/2013

An Introduction to Human GeographyThe Cultural Landscape, 8e

James M. Rubenstein

PPT by Abe Goldman

What kind of Map is

this? What is the Date

of the Map?

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AP HG Ch 2 notes: (INTRO)• Why important to study pop.:

a) pop. = 7 billion, more than ever beforeb) increase rate in 2nd 1/2 of 20th cent. faster than ever b4c) *almost all of global pop. growth is in

LDC’s…where they have least resources• demography: study of pop. characteristics:

how pop. is distributed spatially by age, gender, fertility, health, occupation, etc.

• some problems = where is major pop. growth… why it is growing at differ. rates in differ. places

• overpopulation: # people in certain area & the ability of these people to have needed resources to live decently

4Growth since Industrial Revolution & Projected thru 2050

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World Population Cartogram

This cartogram display countries by size of their population rather than their land area. (Only countries with 50 million or more people are named.)

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The Earth at Night… Note population areas.http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/0011/earthlights2_dmsp_big.jpg

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KEY 1: Pop distribution basically = concentration & density

Pop. Concentrations:

-3/4 of people live on 5% of Earth's surface

-71% of surf. = oceans, & other areas are harsh• 5 major concentr. = E. Asia, S. Asia, SE Asia, W. Europe,

….then Eastern N. Amer. + W. Africa about tied…

Similarities: Most…

*near water *low-lying, fertile soil

*temperate (warm, but not hot)

*climate & all between 10º & 55º N lat., except for parts of SE Asia

WORLD’s FIVE MOST POPULOUS REGIONS

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• Hectares: 10,000 sq meters or 2.47 acres

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1) East Asia #1 in pop. (China, Koreas, Japan, Taiwan): 1/4 world pop. here

• China: #1 in pop., #3 in land area; most on river valleys & coasts; 3/4 rural--most farmers

• Japan: most in Tokyo, Osaka…Korea: most in Seoul

• 3/4 of Japan. & S. Kor. = urban

-most urban jobs in = industry or service

2) South Asia: #2 in pop.; (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka)

--3/4 of this pop. in India

-most on coast or along Indus & Ganges Rivers; 1/4 cities most of pop. = rural farmers

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World Population Distribution

World population is very unevenly distributed across the Earth’s surface & it can be compared to climate distribution.

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3) SE Asia: #4 pop.; (Islands: Java, Sumatra, Borneo, Pap. New Guinea, & Philippines, + Thailand, Vietnam, etc.)

-Indonesia = 4th most pop. country; --most are farmers in rural areas• In these 3 Asian areas = over 50% of world’s pop. on

only 10% of world's land4) Europe: #3 pop.; 75% in cities; less than 20%

farmers (many of farmers in S & E Eur.)

• Import most of food rather than produce• This led to lots of colonization (Amer., India, China,

Africa, etc.) looking for resources & these resources = lots of manufacturing

#5: Eastern N. Amer.: #5; NE USA & SE Canada

• mostly urban… less than 5% = farmers

West Africa: Mostly VERY rural…but about tied w/ Eastern. N. Amer. As to population.

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B) Sparsely pop. areas: too dry, wet, cold, high Ecumene: areas that are permanently settled --more were too harsh…innovations increase

ecumene1) dry lands: 20% of Earth's surface; most in deserts:

Sahara, Arabian, Gobi (N. Afr. SW & Centr. Asia) growing desert = desertification

-little water for crops, etc., but many have oil 2) wet lands: too much rain; most = Equatorial rain

forests: excess rain + excess heat = poor agricul….but can grow some rice

3) cold lands: area at & near N & S Poles; few plants & animals

4) high lands: highest mtns. = steep, snow-covered -exceptions: parts of Latin Amer. & Africa where higher areas is better than lower hot/wet areas

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Expansion of the

Ecumene

5000 B.C.–A.D.

1900

The

ecumene, or the portion of The Earth w/ permanent human settlement, has expanded to covermost of the world’s land area.

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C) Population density: look at it 3 ways… (Deja vu!!!)

1) arithmetic density (aka population density): -# people per unit of land…USA = 30 per sq. km. (77/sq

mi)…but NY City (Manhattan) = 21,400/sq.km (55,400/sq.mi.)

2) Physiological density: # people per unit of arable land: is a more meaningful measure b/c can show pressure on the land due to population

EX: Egypt: arithm. density = 70/sq.km; but physiolg. density = 3,503/sq. km3) agricultural density: ratio farmers to arable land --lower agr. density = higher technology; -MDC's: usually lower agri. density, & LDC’s usually

higher; -in MDC’s, lots of land & few farmers means more pop. to

work in factories, as doctors, plumbers, teachers, etc.

Measures of Different Types of Density

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Arithmetic Population Density

Fig. 2-4: Arithmetic population density: # of ppl per total land area. Highest densities found in parts of Asia & Eur.

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Physiological Density

Fig. 2-5: Physiological density is the number of people per arable land area. This is a good measure of the relation between population and agricultural resources in a society.

Agricultural Density

Agric. Density = FARMERS/ sq. KM of arable land

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Distribution of World Population Growth

• Natural Increase (NIR)

• Fertility (TFR)

• Mortality (IMR + MMR)

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KEY 2: Where Has World's Pop. Increased?

Important terms: (NOTE: crude means "basic", i.e., not specified by age, etc)

a) crude birth rate (CBR): # live births per 1,000 per year:

CBR = 20 means for every 1000 in a place, were 20 births

b) crude death rate (CDR) # deaths in year per 1,000 c) natural increase rate (NIR): % by which a pop. grows

in a year…change CBR & CDR to %'s…---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

• To calculate NIR: CBR - CDR = _____?____• then divide by 1000 to get NIREX: CBR = 25 CDR = 10 25 – 10 = 15 NI per 1000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Divide 15 by 1000 to get a % so it = 1.5% is NIR CBR = 40 CDR = 28 NIR = .012 = 1.2%

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World Population Growth1950–2000

Fig. 2-6: Total world population increased from 2.5 to 6 billion in this half century. The natural increase rate peaked in the early 1960s and has declined since, but the number of people added each year did not peak until 1990.

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Natural increase:• Begin. of 21st cent., world NIR = 1.2; i.e., world

pop. is growing yearly by 1.2 %: now over 7 billion --pop. growth is down somewhat (was 77 million

in 2000; was 87 mil 1989)

A) Doubling time: # yrs. It takes for pop. to double --at 1.2%, our doubling time is now 54 yrs -but in 1800 - 1950 to double…150 yrs. As CBR goes up, doubling time goes down; CBR

down, dbl. time upTime + doubling of pop. are inversely proportionalNIR is over 2.0% in most of Africa, Lat. Amer., & Mid

East (LDC’s…ones who can’t afford it)

Doubling Time and

Population Growth thru the

ages

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Natural Increase

Rates

(NIR) = % of growth or decline in the pop. of a country per year (not including net migration). Countries in Africa & SW Asia have highest current rates; Russia & some European countries have negative rates.

**NIR is negative in Europe …means pop. is declining if you don't count immigrants **Remember! "N" = "natural")

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Crude Birth Rates (CBR)

The crude birth rate (CBR) is the total # of births in a country per 1,000 population per year. Lowest rates: in Europe.

Highest rates: Africa & several Asian countries.

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B) fertility: use CBR to study fertility; many sub-Saharan countries = CBR 40, but many Eurp. = less than 10

-total fertility rate (TFR): avg. # of kids a woman will have thru her child-bearing yrs (about 15-49)

-look at map (49) w/spatial association: shows TFR -TFR over 6 in some Sub-Saharan countries!

C) mortality: one important way to measure & look at = CDR; another way is infant mortality rate -IMR = of every 1,000 live births, # kids die b4 1 yr. old -usually use per 1000, not %…but sometimes = % -W. Eurp. = lowest IMR's (USA high for MDC) -in some LDC's = 100…which means 10% babies born alive die b4 1 yr. oldALSO: Consider maternal mortality rates to look at medical

care, sanitation, etc….gives hint at development levels

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Total Fertility Rates (TFR)

The Total fertility rate (TFR) is the # of children an avg. woman in a society will have thru her childbearing years. Lowest rates: Europe. Highest: Africa & parts of Middle East.

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Infant Mortality Rates (IMR)

The infant mortality rate: # of infant deaths per 1,000 live births per year. Highest: found in some of the poorest countries of Africa & Asia.

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• IMR: strong indication of a country's health-care system. Why? (When I ask you “why?”, etc., you need to KNOW this!)

-though USA = MDC, IMR higher than Canada & most Euro. countries….Why?

• life expectancy: calculated at kid’s birth…means that child has a 50/50 chance of reaching a particular age

-again, high in W. Eur. , low in sub-Saharan Afr.

-MDC's: lower CBR's, TFR's, & IMR's…but higher life expectancy

-LDC's: high CBR, TFR, & IMR, but low life expect.

-CDR doesn’t have as wide a spread as CBR: 20 vs. 40 & LDC's actually bit lower than MDC's (p. 51)

-this contradiction due to demographic transition

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Avg. Life Expectancy at birth

Life expectancy at birth: Avg. # of years a newborn infant can expect to live. Highest: generally in the wealthiest countries. Lowest: in the poorest countries.

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Crude Death Rates (CDR)

The crude death rate (CDR): total # of deaths in a country per 1,000 population per year. B/C wealthy countries are in a late stage of the demographic transition, they often have a higher CDR than poorer countries!!!!!

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KEY 3: Demographic Transition: Why pop. increases at differ. rates in differ.

places at differ. times A) Demographic Transition: countries go thru 4

stages involving changes in CBR, CDR, & NIR Every country is at 1 stage or another…& it is

progressive: once go into a stage, you don't go back… so far

Stage 1: low growth: --hi CBR, hi CDR, NIR about zero -in earliest humans, most all = same stage; CBR

& CDR might vary from year to year, but hi on avg.

-most all = hunter/gatherers for about 392,000 yrs.

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1st Agricultural Revolution:

8,000 BCE: happened in various places & pop. grew faster …aka Neolithic Rev.

Agricultural Revol.: When humans began to grow foods & domesticate animals…

Ppl had been nomadic hunter-gatherers

No longer move & scrounge as they had b/c they had stable food sources

Still stayed basically at Stg 1 Low growth…for about another 10,000 yrs.

Still had problems w/ climate (famine/floods/droughts), wars, disease (pestilence), etc

Just so you know…(& b/c students asked……Your Book Cover Pic

Heard about tennis matches that put the audience on the edge of their seats?

How about ones where the players could fall off the edge of a 1,000 foot building? (Bk. Cover….

This dizzying green roof which doubled as a tennis court sat atop the Burj al Arab luxury hotel in Dubai as part of a media stunt right before the Dubai Duty Free Men’s Open.

Tennis greats Andre Agassi and Roger Federer were invited up to the courts to play a friendly game before the competition began. While it was only temporary, the tennis court lives on in these amazing pictures, which actually make us a bit dizzy. Can you imagine trying to play up there?

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Stage 2: Very hi growth: hi CBR, lowering CDR, hi NIR

Stg 2 comes in 2 sections:

-2-a) pop. growth getting faster…….

-2-b) growth slowing, but CBR/CDR gap still hi

Innovation:

A new idea or new way of doing something; can be technology or can be philosophical ideas

(can be a “better” way, but not always)

-1750: Britain was 1st to come into Stg. 2 b/c

was 1st w/ Industrial Revolution

Later spread thru W. Europe……then USA

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Process of improvement: (NOTE: IN today’s MDC”S!)

a) indust. techn. (steam eng., mass

production, RR, later transportation

innovations)

b) brought wealth….which brought

health innova., sanitation, hygiene,

sewers, etc…= healthier… which

means…less disease

(Why did they improve these?)

c) + food production w/ less labor = laborers

for other jobs

…also health + food higher life expect.

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Cholera in London,1854 By mapping the distribution of cholera cases & water pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John Snow identified the source of the waterborne epidemic.

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Other European countries & USA didn’t hit Stg 2 til about 1800

-Stg. 2 didn’t diffuse to most of Africa, Asia, & Lat. Amer. til about 1950…& then world pop. climbed!

*USA & Eur. moved to stg 2 b/c of industrial/technological Revolutions,

BUT…others (Afr., Lat. Am., etc.) moved to stg 2 b/c of medical revolution in mid-20th cent.

This meant they had.. -improved med. practices = less diseases -less hardships = longer life & healthier life… (got rid of TB, malaria, smallpox, etc.) = more ppl having babies…EX: Sri Lanka & DDT (p. 66, 10th ed.)

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Stage 3: moderate growth: CBR, CDR both lower -CBR still higher than CDR, so pop. grow but not so

fast -CDR dropping, but not as sharp as stg 2 -most Eur. & N. Amer countries from stg 2 stg 3 in early 20th century… --most Asian/Lat. Amer. recent -but most African still in stg 2

Why do we move to stg 3? B/C ppl choose to have _____?____ WHY?

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a) more babies survive (lower ___? __) b) less agric.--need less kids c) more in cities…less “chores” use for kids -when Child Labor laws cut out factory jobs, kids no longer

bring in $$..school required = more $$ d) urban homes = less avg. space = crowded

Stage 4: Low growth: CBR about = CDR --NIR approaching 0 = ZPG --ZPG can happen even if CBR bit higher than CDR: b/c

some girls won’t reach fertil.: -so 2.1 TFR can = ZPG, unless lots of immigrants

Most W. European countries in stg 4 & well below 2.1 TFR’s

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*The Demographic Transition Model

The demogra. trans. in 4 stages: -1st hi B & D 2nd -- then D rates declines 3rd -then in B rates decline 4th --then low B & D rates. BUT pop. highest in Stg 4Pop. growth is most rapid in the 2nd stage.

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Demographic Transition Model w/ explanations, details…• Remember: D-T model looks at GROWTH rate (NIR) more

than total population.

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On previous slide: ADD & KNOW these terms *preindustrial: before switch to industry based economy

Prior to industrial, what do you think the MAJOR econ. activity would be in a region?

*transitional: period of changing over

*Industrial: time when industry is the main money maker in region

*postindustrial: After industry has switched and starting to go to another economic phase (service based?)

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In USA, is not quite at stg 4 b/c of diversity of pop. Why NOT? -Lat-Americans & Af-Americans have higher TFR’s; But Eur-Amer. tend to have TFR’s more like Europeans

-social customs also enter in ? of stages…EX: Religion……OR Farm families: mom stays home & dad

works at home & they have more kids…hands to work chores

-as more women go to work & as families more in urban areas, have less kids

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Some E. Eur. countries have negative NIR b/c CDR higher than CBR…this is 1 of results of old communist system

1) CDR there result of hi pollution (few controls)

2) CBR result of strong fam.-planning…&

3) pessimism… (Why bring kids to this?)

-may change later…but if not could have a Stg 5…

Note: a) at begin. of Stg 1, CBR & CDR both high

(about 35- 40 per 1,000

--at Stg 4, both low (+ - 10/1000)

b) BUT… total pop. in Stg 4 much higher

than Stg 1 b/c continuously adding ppl

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England= good EX: of demog. trans. & stages:

WHY? Has good info for last 1000 yrs (kept records early), stable history & boundaries, & not lots of migration earlier to affect pop.

Stg 1) low growth til 1750: b4 this pop. up & down... (Black Death dropped pop. in 1300’s, famine, etc.)

Stg 2) hi growth: 1750-1880: CBR still hi, but CDR lowering -techn. innova. = more food, more $$$ invested in

health…..stayed stg. 2 about 125 yrs Stg 3) Mod. Growth: 1880-early 1970’s -sharp CBR drop from 33 to 15; CDR fell some…19 to 12 Stg 4: Lo growth: early ‘70’s to now: --CBR betwn. 12-14 & CDR betwn 10-12Engl. pop. grown about 1 mill. since 1970, BUT mainly thru

immigration…NOT natural increase

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Demographic Transition in England

England was one of the first countries to experience rapid population growth in the mid-eighteenth century, when it entered stage 2 of the demographic transition.

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Note that in England CBR & CDR dropped from about 40 to about 12

(stg. 1 stg.4)

--but pop. up from 6 mill. (stg.1) to 50 mil (stg4)

B) Population pyramids: use age & gender to show pop. w/in 5 yr. age groupings

(youngest = 0 – 4yrs at pyramid base)

-gives info RE: M vs. F & groups that might have specific needs or indications…

Pyramid Shape comes mainly from the CBR of the community

Stg. 2 country: Hi CBR w/ lot of kids so wide base

Stg. 4: larger older pop., wider top

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1) Age distribution: the age structure of pop. is important

Dependency ratio: # of those too old or too young to work, so they depend a lot on other part of the

population -divide pop. in 3 sections… 0-14, 15-64, 65- & older -about 1/3 under 15 in

Stg. 2, LDC’sIn stg. 4 countries, only about 1/3 are dependent--..about 1/5 under 15 in those MDC’s at or near Stg 4

Large % of kid pop. is a strain on resources for schools, health care, daycare, etc.

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% of Pop. under 15 (part of the ___?__ ratio)

About 1/3 of world population is under 15, but the % by country varies: Most of Africa + some Asian: Over 40% Much of Europe: Under 20%

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In stg 4, ppl 65+ are a larger % than in stg. 2 b/c of longer life expectancy (see p. 58…lower rt. fig.)

In Europe over 65 = > 15%, but sub-Sahr.Africa = < 2% -is called the “graying” of the pop. (Eur. & N.Am.)This can make CDR of stg 3 & 4 countries higher than stg 2

2) sex ratio: # of males per 100 females w/in pop. -more males born than females…but males have higher

death rates -Eur. & N. Amer, sex ratio = 95:100; rest of world =

102:100 -in US, M vs. F under 15 yrs: 105:100 -at about 30, more F …& by 65, F = 60% of pop. -migration affects sex ratio: males more likely to

migrate, so if hi immigration rates, usually more males

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1) View pyramids on p. 63…make notations about shapes & why they have a specific shape

2) Study the 3 examples of countries in various stages of transi. Make notes about WHY each has the shape it has…

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Population Pyramids in U.S. Cities

Fig. 2-16: Population pyramids can vary greatly, with different fertility rates (Laredo vs. Honolulu), or among military bases (Unalaska), college towns (Lawrence), and retirement communities (Naples).

P.o.P. #18 Video

Clarification:Suez Canal & Aswan High

Dam Locations

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NEXT 3 Slides (also in yr book)Copy items below & answer:a) Cape Verde: Stg 2 hi growth… --possible reasons why? --major problems?

b) Chile: Stg 3: moderate growth… --poss. reason why? --major problems?

c) Denmark: Stg 4 low growth: --poss. reasons why? --major problems?

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Rapid Growth in Cape Verde

Fig. 2-17: Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects the impacts of famines and out-migration.

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Moderate Growth in Chile

Fig. 2-18: Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.

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Low Growth in Denmark

Fig. 2-19: Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.

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One is the EU, one Asia, one a retirement community

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Basic Model for Population Pyramid Can be in raw #’s (like “millions”) or can be in percentages

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D) Demographic trans. & world pop. growth (p. 62)

2nd half of 20th century world pop. zoomed b/c few countries were in the 2 stgs. w/ slower pop growth which are what?? (___ & ____

Most were into 2nd (hi) or 3rd (moderate) Some seem stuck in 2nd…maybe 3rd….To move to 3rd or 4th need 2 big "break-aways" from the

past… 1. Techn. innovations2. Changing social customs that allow for drop in CBR -almost all are getting the techn. innov. (agric.,

medicine, etc.) that brings the drop in CDR --but many slow to alter customs that keep CBR high --resist situations that foster birth control measures -keeps many from moving to Stg. 3… & then to 4th

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Major difference betwn. Eur. & N-Amer. & those now in Stg.2:

Eur & N. Am. went thru Indust. Rev. on way to 3rd or 4th

so…econ. changes 1st more $$$ more improvements social changes stg 3 ….then 4 Today's LDC's: Stg. 2 came from outside investment… …little/no investment of their ownGood EX: Sri Lanka: from 1946 to 1947, CDR dropped 43% b/c internat. organizations supplied them w/ DDT

(insecticide) -sent DDT… trained S-L ppl to spray for mosquitoes … …reduced malaria deaths CDR dropped…but made no econ. advances to support ppl -had MORE ppl…no more $$ or technol. revolutions So…same economy & customs….but w/ hi CBR (& less dying)

…so way more ppl…w/o jobs

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Eur. & N. Amer.: Took about 100+ yrs to go from stg 2 3

Today's LDC's: Tough to get to stgs. 3 or 4 w/o the time Eur/N. Amer had

to devel. & adjust Many Asian + Lat. Amer. LDC's now have moved to stg 3

….now have a declining pop. (EX: Chile)But Africa has not made this break w/ the past &…hasn’t

moved forward…WHY?? MANY reasons…involving… -History -Customs -Disease - Climates -Phys. Geography -Role of Women

B/C of these…Some African countries MAY become 1st to go BACK to

Stg. 1… which has never happened b4

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K- 4: Why world may face overpopulation problems:

Thomas MalthusEnglish economist, 1798 theory said the world would run

out of food in the future due to several factors: pop. was increasing faster than food production predicted a great famine about 100 yrs from then (1798)

his theory: pop. increases geometrically (X) but food production increases arithmetically (+) So….

…1 person to 1 food unit…2 to 2…4 to 3…8 to 4…16 to 5...

Engl. was in Stg 2 of demogr. trans. b/c of Industr. Rev. -Malthus said ppl needed "moral restraint“ (??) to

control CBR…unless war, famine, diseases, or other disasters increased CDR

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In Malthus' day, MDC's had the increasing pop…not LDC's as it is now…(LDC’s were still Stg. 1)

Later ppl didn't think about LDC's gaining from med. techn., but not from wealth & that pop. would snowball

Now have “Neo-Malthusians”…who say Malthus was right …but missed part …

Say we’ll have shortages of clean air, water, suitable farmland, food AND fuel resources

Said these would = civil violence & wars in future b/c of conflict over resources

Though Africa has increased economic development, has increased pop. more, so econ. growth hasn’t helped

--so they are now worse off than 1-2 decades ago

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Critics of Malthus: various arguments against his ideas…

Engels said M.'s idea were capitalistic…

-said world has resources for all…but are unequally distributed…& some use more than their share

Others say pop. growth can stimulate food prod.:

Growth = more customers & encourages more techno. growth

Others say Malthus is too pessimistic b/c he assumed food supply is fixed…& doesn’t allow for the principles of _?_:

-ppl choose to expand food & other resources

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Last 50 yrs. have not supported Malthus’ ideas…b/c…

1) food prod. is up b/c of techn… & we now grow more faster New techniques, new strains of rice, etc., = better

2) pop. growth increased, but food production has grown faster

3) we do have problems w/ those who can't afford or get access to food

-but these are distribution problems, not inability to produce (which is the NEWER theory)

4) also Mal.'s predictions of global growth were off -said by 2000 would be 10 billion but only 6.7 bill.

5) he didn’t foresee cultural, econ. & tech. changes -he didn't see the demogr. transition Stgs. 3 & 4

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Food Population, 1950–2000Malthus vs. Actual Trends

Malthus: Said pop. would grow faster than food Production

But …food productionexpanded faster than pop. in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

Population growth & growth of food sources

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SO…How do we reduce NIR??Even if Malthus was wrong about pop. situation there are

areas w/ these problemsThose in stg 2 (hi growth) can reduce 1 of 2 ways…

1) go back to stg 1: higher CDR more equal to CBR 2) move to stg 3 or 4 by lowering CBR to the CDR

1) Higher CDR: could come from spread of disease esp. AIDS -95% of AIDS deaths are in LDC's! Africa: more than 2 mill. per yr….esp. southern -Botswana, Namibia, Zambia, & Zimbabwe: -1/5 of all deaths there caused by AIDS… -25% of pop. is infected -CDR here rose in '90's from 13 to 21… -life expect. dropped from 55 yrs. to 40 yrs.Higher CDR could push Africa back to stg 1 Demog. trans.

CBR Decline since 1980 - 2009

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Other diseases in other LDC's may lead to higher CDR

1/3 of kids’ deaths in most LDC's is from poor sanitation & its results ..like dysentery (diarrhea = dehydration = death) & other

infectionsAnother 1/3 die from diseases MDC-kids don't get b/c of immunizations: EX: measles, polio, TB, diphtheria, tetanus,etc

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Tuberculosis Death Rates, 2000

TB death rate: an indicator of country’s ability to invest in health care …It’s still 1 of the world’s largest infectious-disease killers.

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HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates 2002vs. more recentdata

Highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India & China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates (%)

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Epidemiological Transition: 4 stages…Maybe 5?: Theory developed by Abdel Omran

Stage 1: Stage of pestilence & famine: nature’s way of holding pop. in check (EX: Black Plague)

Stg 2: stg. of receding pandemics: #’s lessen, but still in crowded areas (EX: Cholera in large cities)

Stg. 3 & 4: steady decrease in infectious diseases ...but increase in chronic degenerative & human-created

diseases EX’s: cancers & cardiovascular-disease (smoking, diet, pollution, etc.)…age relatedStg. 5? MAYBE.. return to infectious & parasitic disease? 3 reasons:

1-evolution of drug resistant microbes2-poverty in LDC’s3- Increased travel & exposure MORE details…

Stages 1 and 2

Stage 1: "The Age of Pestilence & Famine” when mortality is high and fluctuating (up/down), thus so no continuous population growth" (Omran). Avg. life expectancy is low & varies, (20 to 40 yrs.

EX: Black Plague: most violent of the epidemics of Stage 1

Stage 2: "The Age of Receding Pandemics (diseases that occur over a wide area) when mortality declines progressively & rate of decline accelerates as epidemic peaks become less frequent or disappear. Avg. life expectancy at birth increases steadily from about 30 to 50 yrs. Population growth is sustained & begins to describe an exponential curve" (Omran).There are, however, still problems with pandemics Many of these center in the industrial cities now being created that crowd people together. Ex: John Snow and the cholera epidemic of London

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Stages 3 and 4 Stages after the transition,

"The Age of Degenerative and Man-Made Diseases when mortality continues to decline … eventually approaches stability at a relatively low level. The average life expectancy at birth rises gradually until it exceeds 50 years. It is during that stage that fertility becomes the crucial factor in population growth" (Omran).

Stage 3 Major health issues-heart attacks and cancer RISE-declining infectious diseases due to use of vaccines (EX’s: polio, measles)

Stage 4The stage of delayed degenerative diseases.

Same causes of death as Stage 3 but widespread use of the latest medical advances & surgical operations causes a delay of death & extends longevity. (USA is here)

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Possible Stage 5

Return of epidemic diseases b/c of antibiotic resistant strains & new diseases coming from animals (SARS, Avian bird flu, etc)

Possible Reasons for these…Evolution of diseases because they are resistant to drugs or disease carrying insects that are now resistant to pesticides like DDT (mosquitoes resistant to DDT carry malaria)

Possible? Climate change expands areas where insects found?

Poverty- Long expensive treatments make TB an issue in LDCs but not MDCs. AIDs could be argued to be another example of this.

Improved Travel- Pandemics (diseases over a wide area) are now more likely because we travel so much more. H1N1?, SARS and AIDs all traveled a great distance in a very short period of time. (WHAT kind of diffusion????)

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3 POSSIBLE FRQ TOPICS Sept. 2013

MAKE NOTES on ONE sheet of notebook paper (can be back & front…). You MAY use these during the 25 min. for FRQ on Monday Sept. 23rd .

1) Demographic Transition:

*Explain STAGES

*Differentiate betwn. MDC’s & LDC’s in how stages changed

2) Malthusian Theory:

*What was it?

*Who today agrees somewhat w/ it, with some changes?

*Who disagrees today & why?

3) Epidemiological Transition:

*4 (+ maybe 1 more) stages w/ explanation/examples

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So…1 way to adjust = higher CDR…not too nice ..A better way?

2) lower birth rates: v. few want to see pop. contained by higher CDR… lowering CBR is a better choice…

2 ways to lower CBR: Long-run method + short-run methoda) Long-run method: economic development alternative:

Changes in society… Wealthier = more able to spend $$ on educat. & health-

care…promotes lower CBROne key: women: women in school have more

opportunities & choices, better control of lives…dollar-wise & reproductive-wise

Better health-care = lower IMR & women more likely to have less kids cause know kids likely to survive

b) But in short run: Distribute of birth con. methods: Putting resources into family planning methods in LDC's =

a quicker way to drop CBR LDC’s demand for B-C is greater than the supply -We need to get more out there quickly & cheaply

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Bangladesh: women contraceptive use: 1975: 6% ....2000: 50% Now in many LDC's 2/3 of women use bir. contr.But in Africa & other Asian countries only about 1/4 use… Why? Women: low status…little/no education or econ. control -- women’s hi-status comes from hi # of kids --Also gives males hi-status b/c shows “virility & power” --Some cultures view birth control use against their religious or

political beliefsMany religions disapprove of some or all B-C devices: including

some of these…. (usually fundamentalists w/in the relig..) -Roman Catholics -Muslims -fundamentalist Protestants -Hindus For about 8 yrs.: US govt. withheld $$ for all birth control in

many LDC’s b/c of a possibility of abortion…even if only for mother’s life, etc. …Big political issue in US

More recently this policy has been overturned

Most experts agree controlling CBR is best way, but LDC's & international family planning organizations have limited $$$ to make it a reality

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Use of Family Planning

Newer Data:Both the extent of family planning use & the methods used vary widely by country & culture.

China has a low CBR b/c of 1-child policy

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Crude Birth Rate Decline, 1981–2001

CBR’s declined in most countries between 1981 & 2001 (BUT…the # of births per year increased from 123 to 133 mill.).

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SARS Infections in China, 2003

China had 85 %

of the world's SARS cases in 2003. In China, the infection was highly

clustered

in Guangdong

Province, Hong Kong, & in Beijing.

1918 Flu Pandemic

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90Historical Pop. growth:

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WORLD NIR graph:

WHY has it gone down some recently?

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Population pyramid forWilliamsburg,

VA

WHY???

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Get into groups: What can these pyramids tell you??

A B-1, B-2, B-3 C-1, C-2

Read/Write ASSIGNMENT: Ch 2: Populations Case Studies: 10th Ed.: pp.46 & 74-5: Due

Mon.,9/23 Pop. Growth: India vs. ChinaRead & take quick, bulleted notes on important points as you read

In blue or black INK (to prep you for the AP writing) a brief (9-10 good sentences minimum) summation comparing & contrast ways these 2 countries dealt w/ of the problem of population. INCLUDE the following:

1. why is it important for gov’ts. to address this issue

2. how the gov’t. of each has attempted or is attempting to deal with these

3. how the culture(s) in these regions often resist the solutions

4. Results of these efforts

If you mess up during the writing process, simply scratch thru errors & continue after the “scratch out” b/c that is how you will write on AP FRQ’s.

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