01 System Thinking

Systems ThinkingRIZA AULIYA RAHMAN

23/02/2015 TEKNIK INDUSTRI - UNIVERSITAS BRAWIJAYA

Emergency services call centreIn recent years, most countries have centralized their telephone call centres for emergencyservices, such as the fire service, ambulance service, or civil emergencies the 111 or 911service from a regional basis to a single, national centre. The telephones at such centreshave to be staffed by real people on a 24-hour basis. The processing of each incoming callconsists of recording the name, the address and telephone number, the type of emergency,its urgency, etc. Some of this information must be evaluated for its accuracy and whether thecall is genuine. Each incoming call may take as little as one minute or may sometimes exceedfive minutes to process and then liaise with the appropriate service.The aim of the service is to trigger an appropriate response as quickly as possible. The fasterthe response, the greater the likelihood of preventing loss of life or reducing serious injuryand loss of property. The response rate can be kept to a minimum by scheduling a very largenumber of operators on duty at all times, such that the chance of having to wait for anoperator for more than ten seconds is almost nil. As a result, many operators would be idlemost of the time. Not only would this be very boring for the operators, but it would also bevery costly in terms of both salaries and equipment. Government funds are limited and haveto be allocated to a large number of competing uses. The emergency services call centre isonly one of these uses, albeit a very important one, but so are health services, policing,education, welfare, etc.Determining the staffing levels of an emergency call centre boils down to balancing thecentres operating costs and its callers waiting times (measured for instance by the averageand the 99th percentile). In a well-managed system it is not possible to reduce both. If one isdecreased, the other will inevitably increase.The problem is made more difficult by the fact that some aspects, such as salaries andequipment, can be expressed in monetary terms, while others largely defy any attempt toexpress them in this way. How do you evaluate a 10 per cent increase in the waiting timewhich may result in a 40 per cent increase in the likelihood of loss of lives or of seriousinjury?


Vehicle schedulingPick-up and delivery firms, like courier services, pick up and drop off goods at anumber of places. The locations of these pick-ups and drop-offs may differdaily or even hourly, with new locations added to the list of locations to visit.Certain of the customers may specify a given time period or time windowduring which the visit must occur. The vehicle used may have a limitedcarrying capacity. The length of time drivers can be on the road in one shiftmay be subject to legal restrictions. Add to this the problem of traffic densityon various city arterial roads and the consequent change in travel timesbetween locations during the day. It is also clear that even for a small problem,the number of possible distinct sequences for visiting all locations is verylarge. For example, for 10 locations, there are 10! = 3,628,800 differentitineraries, while for 20 this number grows to about2,432,902,000,000,000,000. Although a majority can easily be ruled out asbad, it is still a non-trivial task to select the best combination or sequence ofpick-ups and deliveries from those that remain, such that all complicatingfactors are taken into account. It may even be difficult to decide whichcriterion should be chosen for best. Is it minimum distance, or minimumtime, or minimum total cost, or a compromise between these considerations?Similar types of combinatorial sequencing problems are faced by airlines forthe scheduling of aircraft and air crews, public bus or railroad companies forthe scheduling of buses or engines and drivers, or the city rubbish collectorsfor determining their collection rounds.


Apa permasalahan di atasmemiliki kesamaan?1. Deal with a decision problem : ada seseorang yang tidak puas dengansituasi saat ini kemudian seseorang berusaha melihat ruang lingkupsecara keseluruhan untuk melakukan sesuatu yang lebih baik atau lebihefektif, atau melihat peluang baru atau alternatif baru. Dengan kata lain,seseorang atau suatu kelompok ini ingin mencapai satu atau beberapatujuan, atau mempertahankan level capaian saat ini.2. The answer to the problem, or the solution, is not obvious. The problemsituation is complex : Pihak yang berkepentingan mungkin tidakmemiliki informasi yang cukup tentang situasi untuk mengetahui ataumenemukan semua konsekuensi dari pilihan keputusan, atau untukdapat mengevaluasi kinerja pilihan tersebut dalam mencapai tujuanmereka3. The interactions between various elements or aspects have a degree ofcomplexity : bahwa kapasitas komputasi yang terbatas dari pikiranmanusia tidak dapat mengevaluasi dalam detail yang diperlukan untukmembuat keputusan


SystemDefinition of System (Daellenbach)system as a collection of things, entities, or people that relate to eachother in specific ways, i.e. that are organized and follow specific rules ofinteraction. Collectively, they have a given purpose, i.e. they aim toachieve or produce outcomes that none of its parts can do bythemselves.


Increased ComplexityWhat is complexity?W.R. Ashby, one of the fathers of modern systems thinking, definedcomplexity as the quantity of information required to describesomething [Some peculiarities of complex systems, Cyberneticmedicine, 1973, v9 no2, 16]It seems that the more we know about something, the more complexwe see it.The same is true for decision making


Evaluasi Hasil : Efisiensi danEfektivitasEfektivitas : menghasilkan keluaran (output atau pencapaiantujuan) dalam jumlah maksimum dengan mempergunakanmasukan yang telah ditentukan. (Hasil Guna)Doing the right things

Efisiensi : mempergunakan masukan (input atau sumberdaya) dalam jumlah minimum untuk menghasilkan keluaranyang telah ditentukan. (Daya Guna)Doing things right


23/02/2015 TEKNIK INDUSTRI - UNIVERSITAS BRAWIJAYA 8

Effectiveness

Efficiency

Efficiency

Efficiency

Technicalmaximizes theratio of distancetravelled to fuelconsumption

Economicalmaximizing the

differencebetween revenuesand total costs


EffectivenessEffectiveness, on the other hand, looks at how well the goals or objectivesof the entity or activity are achievedFor example, the bus service may be part of a citys public transport system.Its objectives may be to provide convenient but cost effective commutertransport, where convenient may be defined as no residents having towalk more than five minutes from their home or workplace to catch publictransportThe choice of bus routes, the frequency of service at various times of theday, and the type of vehicles used and how they are maintained, as well asthe fare structure in terms of its objectives and the resource constraintsimposed on it.Trade offs between these variables will affect overall effectiveness of thesystem


Efficiency vs EffectivenessHere is another example. Walk through any factory and you will seemachine spare parts accumulating dust. They tie up the funds spent topurchase them. These funds are seemingly idle. Hence, it looks like a goodidea to reduce the stock of spare parts, freeing the funds for productive useelsewhere in the firm. But wait a minute! The reason why the spare partswere purchased was to keep any down-time resulting from a machine partbreaking down as short as possible. If the parts are in stock, no time is lostwaiting to get them. If the supplier is overseas, procuring them could easilyimply a few weeks delay, or expensive air freighting. So lack of adequatestocks of spare parts may result in prolonged downtime during which themachine is idle. The loss of profit from the loss of output may far outweighthe cost of funding adequate stocks of spares. Therefore, elimination ofsuch seemingly idle spares may not be cost-effective. The real problem isnot one of being efficient in the sense of eliminating idle resources, butrather one of being effective in terms of the operation of the firm as awhole. In this example, this translates itself into finding the proper balancebetween the cost of the investment in stocks of spares and the cost ofmachine down-time incurred if the firm is short of spares.


Complementarity of efficiencyand effectivenessThis discussion may have given the impression that efficiency is theenemy of effectiveness. Far from it! It is only the narrow concern withefficiency at the exclusion of the overall goals of the organization whichis detrimental.True efficiency looks at the overall goals. the effectiveness ofdecisions and policies is enhanced.The goals of the organization will be achieved at lower costs, with fewerresources, or with increased benefits in other words, more efficiently.The two are thus complementary.Effectiveness deals with doing the right thing, efficiency with doingthings right


Unplanned andcounterintuitive outcomesSome of the outcomes actually realized, both planned and unplanned,may be counterintuitiveCounterintuitive : what happens appears at first glance to contradictwhat common sense and intuition tell us should occur.


Reductionist andcause-and-effect thinkingThe first is reductionism:the belief that everything in the world and every experience of it can bereduced, decomposed, or disassembled into ultimately simpleindivisible parts.The second basic idea is that all phenomena are explainable by usingcause-and-effect relationships:A thing X is taken to be the cause of Y if X is both necessary andsufficient for Y to happen. Hence, cause X is all that is needed toexplain effect Y


ContSome of these are usually planned, while others may be unexpectedand counterintuitiveFurthermore, causal relationships may not be simply one-way. Therecould bemutual causality or feedback between two things, i.e. X affectsY, but is in turn affected by Y. The two are interdependent.


Systems ThinkingFrom about 1940 on, a number of researchers from various scientificdisciplines, gave rise to a new way of thinking systems thinking.Something to be explained is viewed as part of a larger whole, a system,and is explained in terms of its role in that systemit may not be sufficient to use reductionist and cause-and-effectthinking by studying the individual parts or aspects in isolation. In orderto get a true picture, it is essential to study their systemic role in thesystem.However, this does not imply that we should discard reductionist andcause-and-effect thinking in favour of systems thinking. Bothapproaches are in fact complementary.


ConclusionHari ini dunia dalam masyarakat modern menjadi semakin kompleks.

Traditional rational thinking sebagian besar masih didasarkan pada model reductionistdan Cause-and-effect. Hal ini mungkin tidak mampu mengatasi kompleksitas, fokusnyaterlalu sempit, pengambilan keputusan hanya sepotong yang dapat mengakibatkan hasilyang tidak direncanakan dan yang dari sudut pandang keseluruhan mungkin tidak efektif.Systems Thinking memili sudut pandang yang lebih komprehensif, fokus pada keseluruhansistem dan mencoba untuk menjelaskan peran atau perilaku dari bagian-bagian dalamkeseluruhan sistem, bukan sebaliknya.

Systems Thinking berusaha untuk fokus pada efektivitas pada sistem secara keseluruhan,bukan efisiensi yang sempit pada bagian-bagiannya.

Sistem menampilkan tidak hanya planned dan desired outputs, tetapi juga unplanned dansering juga undesirable outputs. Beberapa output mungkin tampak counterintuitive


Case Study


Emergency services call centreIn recent years, most countries have centralized their telephone call centres for emergencyservices, such as the fire service, ambulance service, or civil emergencies the 111 or 911service from a regional basis to a single, national centre. The telephones at such centreshave to be staffed by real people on a 24-hour basis. The processing of each incoming callconsists of recording the name, the address and telephone number, the type of emergency,its urgency, etc. Some of this information must be evaluated for its accuracy and whether thecall is genuine. Each incoming call may take as little as one minute or may sometimes exceedfive minutes to process and then liaise with the appropriate service.The aim of the service is to trigger an appropriate response as quickly as possible. The fasterthe response, the greater the likelihood of preventing loss of life or reducing serious injuryand loss of property. The response rate can be kept to a minimum by scheduling a very largenumber of operators on duty at all times, such that the chance of having to wait for anoperator for more than ten seconds is almost nil. As a result, many operators would be idlemost of the time. Not only would this be very boring for the operators, but it would also bevery costly in terms of both salaries and equipment. Government funds are limited and haveto be allocated to a large number of competing uses. The emergency services call centre isonly one of these uses, albeit a very important one, but so are health services, policing,education, welfare, etc.Determining the staffing levels of an emergency call centre boils down to balancing thecentres operating costs and its callers waiting times (measured for instance by the averageand the 99th percentile). In a well-managed system it is not possible to reduce both. If one isdecreased, the other will inevitably increase.The problem is made more difficult by the fact that some aspects, such as salaries andequipment, can be expressed in monetary terms, while others largely defy any attempt toexpress them in this way. How do you evaluate a 10 per cent increase in the waiting timewhich may result in a 40 per cent increase in the likelihood of loss of lives or of seriousinjury?


Aspects that contribute tocomplexity1. Service with quick response (waiting time lower than 10 seconds) :

Respon yang cepat dalam pelayanan dengan waktu tunggu kurangdari 10 detik.

2. A very large number of operators on duty at all times : Jumlahoperator yang bekerja sangat banyak pada semua waktu

3. Many operators idle most of the time (boring) : Banyak operatoryang menganggur dan bosan

4. Very costly both salaries and equipment : Biaya gaji dan peralatanbesar

5. Government funds are limited : Pendanaan dari pemerintahterbatas.


the planned desirable andundesirable outcomesplanned desirable outcome : low waiting timeplanned undesirable outcome : idle staff

the unplanned desirable andundesirable outcomesunplanned desirable outcome : low waiting times will lead to a low rateof complaints against the service


counterintuitive outcomeswaktu tunggu yang lama atau tingkat respons yang lambat dapatmenyebabkan peningkatan jumlah panggilan yang diterima. Penjelasan:Beberapa panggilan, seperti kebakaran atau kecelakaan, dapat memicubeberapa panggilan berulang-ulang jika waktu menunggu meningkat .


Effective vs Efficience


01 System Thinking

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