FUZZY LOGIC ELECTRICAL LOAD FORECASTING FOR NEXT DAY PEAK LOAD
* = Peak Load in Megawatts
16
Building the Energy Markets of Tomorrow . . . Today SM The Effects of Integrating Wind The Effects of Integrating Wind Power Power on the Reliability, Planning on the Reliability, Planning and and Operations of the Operations of the New York State Power System New York State Power System John M. Adams John M. Adams Director, System and Resource Planning Director, System and Resource Planning
description
The Effects of Integrating Wind Power on the Reliability, Planning and Operations of the New York State Power System John M. Adams Director, System and Resource Planning. Hydro Quebec 35,137 MW*. ISO - New England 25,348 MW*. IMO 25,414 MW*. 1050 MW. 1000 MW. 1500 MW. 1325 MW. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of * = Peak Load in Megawatts
Building the Energy Markets of Tomorrow . . . TodaySM
The Effects of Integrating Wind Power The Effects of Integrating Wind Power on the Reliability, Planningon the Reliability, Planning and Operations and Operations
of theof theNew York State Power SystemNew York State Power System
John M. AdamsJohn M. AdamsDirector, System and Resource PlanningDirector, System and Resource Planning
2
3
* = Peak Load in Megawatts
IMO25,414 MW*
Hydro Quebec35,137 MW*
ISO - New England25,348 MW*
NYISO31,741 MW*
1325 MW1325 MW
1500 MW1500 MW
1500 MW1500 MW1000 MW1000 MW
1050 MW1050 MW
975 MW975 MW
2375 MW2375 MW
2625 MW2625 MW
PJM / PJM West131,330 MW*
4
NY’s Renewable Portfolio Standard NY’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)(RPS) 25% of energy retailed in NY should come from eligible
renewable resources by 2013 Current level is about 19.5% RPS estimates that this need will be met by:
2,779 MW of NY-based Wind Farms 1,350 MW of Imports (including 250 MW of Wind in PJM) 294 MW of Biomass Co-Firing w/Coal 121 MW of Landfill Gas
Initial RECs awards made to 7 renewable facilities – 820,000 MWh contracted for 2006 – first-year payments estimated at roughly $18 million
5
NY Energy by Fuel TypeNY Energy by Fuel Type
05000
1000015000200002500030000350004000045000
GW
h2004 2013 projected
6
NY’s Wind Generation Interconnection QueueNY’s Wind Generation Interconnection Queue
Zone AB = 14, 1856T = 14, 1856
Zone CA = 1, 30B = 11, 959T = 12, 989
Zone DB = 7, 726T = 7, 726
Zone EA = 1, 11.5B = 12, 1429T = 13, 1441
Zone FB = 1, 100T = 1, 100
Zone KB = 1, 140T = 1, 140
Key:A = # Projects In-Service, #MWB = # Projects Proposed, #MWT = Total # Projects, #MW
Total NYA = 3, 48 MWB = 46, 5210 MWT = 49, 5258 MW
Zone BA = 1, 6T = 1, 6
7
How Will RPS Impact System How Will RPS Impact System Reliability?Reliability?GE Energy Consulting engaged by NYSERDA
and NYISO to evaluate reliability needs of RPS
Looked at 3300 MW of wind resources connected to NY system by 2008
Phase II study results released on Feb. 10, 2005 – available at www.nyserda.com/rps
Building the Energy Markets of Tomorrow . . . TodaySM
9
Study ObjectiveStudy Objective
To produce empirical information that will assist the NYISO in evaluating the reliability implications of the large scale integration of wind generation
Phase 1: Preliminary Overall Reliability Analysis
Phase 2: System Performance Evaluation
10
Time Scales for Time Scales for System System PlanningPlanningand Operation and Operation
ProcessesProcesses Unit Commitment
andDay- Ahead Scheduling
Load Following(5 Minute Dispatch)
Frequency and Tie- Line Regulation
(AGC)
Day- ahead and Multi-Day
Forecasting
Fas
ter
(sec
on
ds)
Tim
e F
ram
e
Slo
wer
(Y
ears
)
Planning and Operation Process
TechnologyIssues
Hour- Ahead Forecasting
and Plant Active Power Maneuvering and
Management
Resource andCapacity Planning
(Reliability)
Unit Dispatch
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Hour
MW
Real- Time and Autonomous Protection and Control Functions
(AGC, LVRT, PSS, Governor, V-Reg , etc.)
Capacity Valuation(UCAP, ICAP)
andLong- Term Load
Growth Forecasting
2001 Average Load vs Average Wind
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1 6 11 16 21
Hour
NY
ISO
Lo
ad (
MW
)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Win
d O
utp
ut
(MW
)
July load August load September load
July wind August wind September wind
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1 61 121
Minutes
MW
September Morning August Morning May Evening October Evening April Afternoon
1 Year
1 Day
3 Hours
10 Minutes
Operation and Operation and Planning Data Planning Data Spanning All Spanning All These Time These Time Frames Was Frames Was Compiled for Compiled for This StudyThis Study
11
Study Findings – Interconnection Study Findings – Interconnection Req.Req. If state of the art wind technology is utilized, the
NYSBPS can reliably interconnect wind generation on a large scale with only minor adjustments to its existing planning, operation, and reliability practices.
State of the art wind generators would have the following features/capabilities: Low-Voltage Ride Through Leading/Lagging Power Factor Range SCADA
Ratings of wind farms would need to be within the capacity of local transmission facilities and subject to congestion management: Power Curtailment Capability
12
Study Findings – Planning and Study Findings – Planning and OperationsOperations
Time Scale Technical
Issue Without Wind
Generation With Wind Generation
Comments
Years UCAP of Wind Generation
UCAP land-based 10%
UCAP offshore 36% (one site in
Long Island)
UCAP is site-specific
Simple calculation method proposed
Days
Day-Ahead Forecasting and Unit Commitment
Forecasting error:
700-800 MW
Forecasting error:
850-950 MW
Incremental increase can be accommodated by existing processes and resources in NY State
Even without forecasts, wind energy displaces conventional generation, reduces system operating costs, and reduces emissions.
Accurate wind forecasts can improve results by another 30%
Hourly Variability = 858 MW = 910 MW
Incremental increase can be accommodated by existing processes and resources in NY State
Hours Largest Hourly Load Rise
2575 MW 2756 MW Incremental increase can be accommodated by existing processes and resources in NY State
Minutes Load Following
(5-min Variability)
= 54.4 MW = 56.2 MW Incremental increase can be accommodated by existing
processes and resources in NY State
Regulation 225 to 275 MW
36 MW increase required to
maintain same performance
NYISO presently exceeds NERC criteria
May still meet minimum NERC criteria with existing regulating capability
Spinning Reserve
1200 MW 1200 MW No change to contingency that sets spinning reserve requirement Seconds
Stability 8% post-fault voltage dip
(typical)
5% post-fault voltage dip
(typical)
State-of-the-art wind generators do not participate in power swings, and improve post-fault response of the interconnected power grid.
13
Study Findings – Capacity ValueStudy Findings – Capacity Value
Based on rigorous LOLP calculations using 2001 - 2003 load and wind profiles: Inland Wind Sites:
Capacity factors ~ 30%Effective capacity, UCAP ~ 10%
Offshore Wind Site:Capacity factors ~ 40%Effective capacity, UCAP ~ 39
Developed approximate calculation method:UCAP ~ On-Peak Capacity Factor for 1:00-5:00pm,
June-August
14
2001 Average Load Vs Average Wind2001 Average Load Vs Average Wind
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1 6 11 16 21
Hour of Day
NY
ISO
Lo
ad
(M
W)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Win
d O
utp
ut
(MW
)
July load August load September load
July w ind August wind September w ind
August
July
September
15
One week in July 2002One week in July 2002
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1 25 49 73 97 121 145
Hour of Week
NY
ISO
Lo
ad (
MW
)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Win
d O
utp
ut
(MW
)
NY Loads
WIND
16
Market-Related Wind Issues – Schedule Market-Related Wind Issues – Schedule for Market Participant Discussionsfor Market Participant DiscussionsThe NYISO is developing straw proposals
addressing a number of market-related issues:
Centralized wind forecasting system
Interim market rules clarification of 500 MW limit
End-state market rules
NYISO expects to discuss these proposals within the Market Structures Working Group in the July/August timeframe
