הגירה פנימית בישראל - boi.org.il · 2 Internal Migration in Israel* Kobi Braude...
50
1 2006.07 2006 ______ ___________________ 1 , . , . . , il . gov . boi . www :// http , " 780 91007 Research Department, Bank of Israel, POB 780, 91007 Jerusalem, Israel
Transcript of הגירה פנימית בישראל - boi.org.il · 2 Internal Migration in Israel* Kobi Braude...
1
2006.07
2006
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Internal Migration in Israel*
Kobi Braude and Guy Navon
Abstract
This paper characterizes families that changed their locality of residence within Israel �internal migration. The analysis draws on a nation-wide sample of households in 1983 and 1995, combining the characteristics of the migrants with those of the localities of origin and destination. The findings indicate that: internal migration is of significant scope with 17 percent of the families examined changing their locality; the likelihood of migrating rises with income and educational attainment, and declines with age up to a certain point, after which the latter trend is reversed; localities differ substantially in their balance of migration and the characteristics of the migrants. We further analyze two important processes that have attracted considerable public attention: the rise of the suburbs, and the weakening of the development towns. We find that strong populations leave the metropolitan areas – in particular, the strongest move to affluent suburbs and rural communities. We also document a significant net flow out of the development towns, especially among young well-educated couples. Those who leave the development towns differ in their destination: Many of those leaving the development towns in the north stay in the region – the strongest of whom move to rural communities there – while among those leaving the towns in the south, a larger fraction moves to the center of the country. The net negative migration balance in the development towns is all the more noteworthy considering the longstanding policy to strengthen these towns and the periphery in general. The flow of strong families – from the metropolitan areas as well as from the development towns – to smaller and more homogeneous localities has important policy implications regarding the rise in disparities among localities.
____________________
The research was carried out in the research room of the Central Bureau of Statistics, using datasets prepared by the Demography and Census Division. We thank Sigalit Shmueli, Hadas Yafeh, and Rachel Mor for preparing the datasets and merging them. We also thank Roni Frish and participants of the Bank of Israel Research Department seminar for helpful comments. Research Department, Bank of Israel http://www.boi.gov.il
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and Trends in Israel," in Kahane R., Rural and Regional Development in Israel
in a Comparative Perspective, Magness Press, Jerusalem.
Lipshitz, G. (1996). "Core versus Periphery in Israel over Time: Inequality, Internal
Migration and Immigration," in Gradus, Y. and G. Lipshitz, The Mosaic of Israeli
Geography, Ben-Gurion University Press, Beer-Sheva.
Portnov, B.A. (1998). "The Effect of Housing on Migrations in Israel: 1988-1994", Journal
of Population Economics, Vol. 11, p. 379-394.
Portnov, B.A. and E. Erell. (2003) "Inter-Regional Disparities in Israel: Data from the Census
of Population and Housing, 1948-1995", Research Report, No. 2, Central Bureau of
Statistics.
Shachar, A. (1983). "Internal Migration: Determinants and Policies," in Cohen, E.,
Comparative Social Dynamics, Westview Press, Boulder.
33
'-1 : ' 1
-95 /83
101 102 103 " 7 , , , ,
, , 104 5 , . , . , . , .
200 5 , , , ,
25 ",
20,000-100,000
301 -
9 , , , , , , , ,
302 "7 , , , , , ,
) ( 35 ",
100-20,000
401
178 /160 -95:
26 2,000
26 2,000 : , , , , , , ,
, , , , , , ,
- , , , , , , ,
, , , , 402 "75 / 60
-95 : 19
2,000
19 2,000 : , , , , " , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
500 21 : , , ,
, , , , , , , : , , , , , , , , ,
600
35 " ,
20,000 ) 20,000:
- 21,900(
330 / 305 -95:
232 92
6 2,000 : , , , - , ,
700 6 / 5 , , " , , ,
800 268 / 264 900 ) 35 "(,
145 / 143
-95: 136
9
1,000 : )1,238 (.
2
1,058 /993
1 ." "� . 2. -1995 1,100 . 42
"."
34
'-2
� -
.
":"
.
.
.34
: -1983
-1995: .
: .
: ; ;
;
, .35
: -1995 18 ,
. -:
_1: . -1983 ) (-1995.
_2: -1983 -1995.
_3: -1983 -1995
. ,
.-1995
: , ,
) '-2 ,-80
-1983 -1995( , " "
' . .
-1983
. .
'-2 .
34 -1983 -1995
) 1983 1995 .( : . -13 1983
-1995 , -80% ) -1983 .( ) ( 1,172 . .
-1983 -1995 , .
1995 -1990 . -1983 -1990 -1990 -1995 . -1990
.35 -1983 , -1995 , .
.
35
'-2 : �
' /
120,936
1 81,517
35,836 17,918 : -83 -95 2 35,524 17,762
-83 -95
312 156
384
�" " 83 13,107
: 2 2,344 310,763
)_1 ,2 ,3( 15,185
:_1") (" -83 ,
-95
2,226
_2 ) ( -83 -95
536
_3 ") (" -83 -95
12,423
414,668
79180
12-
5 2,349
3 " 81,517
6
34,398 17,199
1 . , -1995 , .
2 . -83 -95 .
3 . -1983 , -1995 , -1995 . 10,406
-357 ) 83 , / 83( .
4 . -95 :=3,550 ,=2,930 ,=5,895 ,=2,293.
5 . . : . -95 .
. ) : " , � .( .
-83 -95. " ,
'" -83) -95(.
6 . 2 "."
36
'-3 : - probit
-83
-0.013(-12.42)
-0.008(-6.44)
-0.009(-7.39)
-0.008(-6.26)
-83
0.000(8.23)
0.000(3.09)
0.000(5.02)
0.000(3.06)
-95 0.012(11.96)
0.011(10.95)
0.012(11.35)
0.011(10.98)
' -83
-0.020(-6.29)
-0.020(-5.70)
' -95
-0.010(-3.06)
0.000(0.02)
95 / 83 0.039(4.10)
-0.001(-0.10)
-83 0.000(2.56)
0.000(2.68)
0.000(2.48)
0.000(2.68)
-83 ) (
0.022(3.27)
0.015(2.25)
0.000(0.05)
0.016(2.49)
' -83
-0.001(-3.10)
-0.001(-3.25)
-0.001(-3.16)
-0.001(-3.25)
-830.009(2.39)
0.008(2.21)
0.009(2.47)
0.008(2.21)
-83
-0.000(-2.32)
-0.000(-2.17)
-0.000(-2.37)
-0.000(-2.17)
' -83 0.000(2.70)
0.000(2.49)
0.000(3.09)
0.000(2.48)
' -83
-0.000(-4.60)
-0.000 (-4.39)
-0.000(-4.91)
-0.000(-4.38)
Pseudo R20.070.080.070.08
') ( 13,59313,59313,59313,593z .
� .
" " . " 1983 -1995.
� " . � .
� -83.
37
'-4.1: Multinomial Logit 1
- )1( )2( )3( )4( )401(
0.058 -0.022 0.022 (0.56) (-0.18) (0.17) 0.013 0.013 0.000 (1.30) (1.31) (1.11) 0.386 0.344 0.343 0.210 (1.46) (1.21) (1.21) (0.56) ^2 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.002 (-1.03) (-0.99) (-1.00) (-0.31)
2 No No No Yes
)301 ,401 (
0.174 0.052 0.093 (1.52) (0.41) (0.68) 0.012 0.011 0.000 (1.18) (1.09) (0.94) -0.058 -0.045 -0.036 -0.083 (-0.23) (-0.17) (-0.14) (-0.23) ^2 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.002 (0.46) (0.33) (0.31) (0.45)
2 No No No Yes
" -0.155 -0.225 -0.190 (-1.64) (-2.12) (-1.60) 0.007 0.009 0.000 (0.70) (1.00) (0.83) 0.232 0.192 0.258 0.250 (0.97) (0.80) (1.03) (0.76) ^2 -0.003 -0.002 -0.004 -0.003 (-0.96) (-0.73) (-1.08) (-0.65)
2 No No No Yes
0.000 -0.118 -0.079 (0.00) (0.99) (0.60) 0.005 0.006 0.000 (0.44) (0.57) (0.41) -0.076 -0.020 -0.012 -0.074 (-0.31) (-0.08) (-0.04) (-0.21) ^2 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.002 (0.40) (0.12) (0.04) (0.33)
2 No No No Yes
169 146 146 144 LR 34.76 16.12 28.72 33.77
Z . 1. : . 2. : -83 , ) ( -83, .
38
'-4.2: Multinomial Logit
)1( )2( )3( )4(
1 Chi2 8.62 6.87 6.92 8.59 )401(
Prob.(0.03) (0.08) (0.14) (0.28) Chi2 3.41 2.93 3.04 4.25 )301 ,
401 ( Prob.(0.33) (0.40) (0.55) (0.75) " Chi2 3.35 1.77 6.28 8.03
Prob.(0.34) (0.62) (0.18) (0.33) Chi2 0.50 0.36 1.32 3.49
Prob.(0.92) (0.95) (0.86) (0.84)
2 Chi2 14.96 11.19 10.18
Prob.(0.00) (0.02) (0.04) Chi2 2.87 2.20 1.87
Prob. (0.58) (0.70) (0.76) Chi2 6.85 3.69 4.02 2.45
Prob.(0.14) (0.45) (0.40) (0.65) ^2 Chi2 6.42 3.49 4.10 2.65
Prob.(0.17) (0.48) (0.39) (0.62) ' Chi2 0.60
Prob. (0.96) Chi2 2.69
Prob. (0.61) Chi2 1.50
Prob. (0.83) 1. ,
� . 2 . .
39
'-5.1 : Multinomial Logit -1
- )1( )2( )3( )4( ,
)301 (
0.437 0.501 0.485 (6.53) (5.79) (5.10) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (3.11) (1.44) (0.81) 0.003 -0.063 -0.148 -0.146 (0.03) (-0.60) (-1.21) (-0.98) ^2 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.002 (0.29) (0.45) (1.42) (1.08) 2 No No No Yes
, ) 401 (
0.294 0.378 0.310 (3.08) (3.15) (2.33) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (3.33) (1.93) (1.50) 0.071 -0.029 -0.123 0.464 (0.35) (-0.12) (-0.49) (1.19) ^2 -0.001 -0.001 0.001 -0.007 (-0.53) (-0.25) (0.20) (-1.28) 2 No No No Yes
, ) 302 ,402( ,
0.165 0.138 0.065 (1.46) (1.12) (0.50) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (2.10) (1.36) (1.01) 0.125 0.031 0.079 0.198 (0.47) (0.12) (0.29) (0.55) ^2 -0.002 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 (-0.64) (-0.39) (-0.49) (-0.75) 2 No No No Yes
0.330 0.310 0.258 (4.10) (3.21) (2.65) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (1.98) (0.83) (0.60) -0.008 -0.083 -0.092 -0.045 (-0.06) (-0.61) (-0.63) (-0.25) ^2 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 (0.17) (0.51) (0.71) (0.23)
2 No No No Yes
256 203 203 196 LR 80.88 28.44 81.25 103.11
Z . 1. : . 2. : -83 , ) ( -83 ,
.
40
'-5.2 : Multinomial Logit -
)1( )2( )3( )4(
1 Chi2 43.37 10.28 39.22 41.75 ,
)301 ( Prob.(0.00) (0.02) (0.00) (0.00) Chi2 12.96 13.78 18.75 22.13 , ) 401 (
Prob.(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) Chi2 4.45 6.29 6.02 7.06 ,
) 302 ,402( , Prob.(0.22) (0.10) (0.20) (0.42) Chi2 17.55 4.25 12.66 12.47
Prob.(0.00) (0.24) (0.01) (0.09)
2 Chi2 45.54 35.52 27.60
Prob.(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) Chi2 11.35 4.02 2.92
Prob. (0.02) (0.40) (0.57) Chi2 0.34 0.64 1.86 3.17
Prob.(0.99) (0.96) (0.76) (0.53) ^2 Chi2 0.86 0.69 2.55 3.83
Prob.(0.93) (0.95) (0.63) (0.43) ' Chi2 10.62
Prob. (0.03) Chi2 1.45
Prob. (0.84) Chi2 10.11
Prob. (0.04) 1. ,
� . 2 . .
41
:'-6.1 : Multinomial Logit - ) -(1
Z . 1. : ) ".( 2. : -83 , ) ( -83,
.
- )1( )2( )3( )4( -
0.115 0.105 0.080 (2.24) (1.77) (1.33) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.01) (0.59) (0.74) 0.061 0.059 0.078 0.152 (0.72) (0.63) (0.83) (1.19) 2 No No No Yes
, ) 301(
0.180 0.149 0.137 (4.60) (3.37) (3.06) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (2.58) (1.42) (1.32) 0.010 0.000 0.022 0.006 (0.15) (0.00) (0.30) (0.06) 2 No No No Yes
, ) 401 ( 0.336 0.324 0.298 (5.93) (5.12) (4.61) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (1.98) (0.43) (0.65) 0.264 0.301 0.301 0.241 (1.84) (1.89) (1.92) (1.23) 2 No No No Yes
) 401 (" 0.086 0.032 0.047 (1.32) (0.43) (0.61) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (1.92) (1.45) (1.74) 0.060 0.060 0.075 0.044 (0.44) (0.36) (0.45) (0.22) 2 No No No Yes
, )302 ,402( , -0.020 -0.024 -0.037 (-0.36) (-0.36) (-0.54) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.10) (0.18) (0.10) 0.010 -0.005 -0.004 0.062 (0.10) (-0.04) (-0.04) (0.40) 2 No No No Yes
0.098 0.102 0.109 (2.02) (1.86) (1.96) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.42) (0.97) (0.46) -0.058 -0.023 -0.005 0.074 (-0.77) (-0.28) (-0.06) (0.66) 2 No No No Yes
780 658 658 646 LR 92.84 45.63 81.19 98.11
42
'-6.2 : Multinomial Logit - ) -(
)1( )2( )3( )4(
1 Chi2 11.54 5.72 8.83 15.46 - Prob.(0.01) (0.13) (0.07) (0.031) Chi2 21.72 7.45 18.13 19.49 ,
)301 ( Prob.(0.00) (0.06) (0.00) (0.01) Chi2 40.71 9.45 34.19 35.32 , ) 401 (
Prob.(0.00) (0.02) (0.00) (0.00) Chi2 6.38 7.17 6.23 8.45 ) 401 (
" Prob.(0.09) (0.07) (0.18) (0.29) Chi2 4.56 2.26 2.38 3.56 ,
) 302 ,402( , Prob.(0.21) (0.52) (0.67) (0.83) Chi2 7.41 1.94 5.42 8.27 Prob.(0.06) (0.58) (0.25) (0.31)
2
Chi2 47.48 33.02 27.59 Prob.(0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
Chi2 11.07 6.23 5.98 Prob. (0.09) (0.40) (0.43)
Chi2 5.21 4.42 4.49 3.00 Prob.(0.52) (0.62) (0.61) (0.81)
^2 Chi2 6.32 5.28 4.79 3.45 Prob.(0.39) (0.51) (0.57) (0.75)
' Chi2 5.92 Prob. (0.43)
Chi2 10.01 Prob. (0.12)
Chi2 4.22 Prob. (0.65)
1. , � - ) "(.
2 . .
43
'-7.1 : Multinomial Logit 1
- )1( )2( )3( )4( "
0.251 0.290 0.300 (2.76) (2.80) (2.78) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.30) (1.13) (0.87) -0.313 -0.238 -0.196 -0.156 (-2.30) (-1.62) (-1.31) (-0.80) ^2 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 (2.59) (1.79) (1.63) (1.02) 2 No No No Yes
, ) 401 (
0.364 0.383 0.395 (5.90) (5.51) (5.51) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (2.43) (0.40) (0.49) -0.109 -0.155 -0.127 -0.307 (-0.92) (-1.26) (-0.98) (-1.80) ^2 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.003 (0.86) (0.94) (0.91) (1.68) 2 No No No Yes
, )402 (
0.085 0.126 0.141 (1.07) (1.39) (1.48) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.51) (0.01) (0.27) 0.011 0.033 0.061 -0.032 (0.07) (0.17) (0.32) (-0.13) ^2 -0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.000 (-0.12) (-0.26) (-0.35) (0.12) 2 No No No Yes
0.131 0.132 0.108 (2.38) (2.00) (1.58) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (1.42) (0.62) (1.10) -0.114 -0.170 -0.140 0.086 (-1.13) (-1.45) (-1.19) (0.52) ^2 0.001 0.002 0.002 -0.001 (1.16) (1.28) (1.12) (-0.46)
2 No No No Yes
328 288 288 284 LR 58.55 18.06 57.28 79.99
Z . 1. : . 2. : -83 , ) ( -83, .
44
'-7.2: Multinomial Logit
)1( )2( )3( )4(
1 Chi2 13.68 5.34 12.26 16.93 " Prob.(0.00) (0.15) (0.02) (0.018) Chi2 37.85 9.20 35.82 38.14 ,
)401 ( Prob.(0.00) (0.03) (0.00) (0.00) Chi2 1.70 0.72 2.57 3.26 ,
)402 ( Prob.(0.64) (0.87) (0.63) (0.86) Chi2 7.18 4.15 7.63 13.80 Prob.(0.07) (0.25) (0.11) (0.05)
2
Chi2 36.87 32.46 32.38 Prob.(0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
Chi2 6.88 2.16 2.52 Prob. (0.14) (0.71) (0.64)
Chi2 5.86 4.66 3.19 4.51 Prob.(0.21) (0.32) (0.53) (0.34)
^2 Chi2 7.20 4.47 3.77 4.12 Prob.(0.13) (0.35) (0.44) (0.39)
' Chi2 4.44 Prob. (0.35)
Chi2 8.43 Prob. (0.08)
Chi2 6.44 Prob. (0.17)
1. , � .
2 . .
45
'-8 : - probit
) (
-83
-0.001(-0.36)
-0.002(-0.51)
-0.007 (-1.36)
-0.008(-1.52)
-0.006(-1.16)
0.006(0.87)
0.006(0.79)
0.007(1.08)
-83
-0.000(-0.36)
-0.000(-0.52)
0.000(0.69)
0.000(0.53)
0.000(0.45)
-0.000(-1.19)
-0.000(-1.29)
-0.000(-1.51)
-83
0.008(2.31)
0.011(2.32)
0.012(3.06)
0.008(1.47)
0.012(2.47)
' " -83
-0.019(-2.36)
-0.022(-2.75)
-0.007(-0.67)
-0.013(-1.31)
-0.003(-0.36)
-0.049(-3.43)
-0.050(-3.50)
-0.050(-3.85)
" -83
0.001(1.76)
0.001(2.85)
0.000(0.83)
0.001(1.75)
0.001(1.52)
0.001(2.35)
-0.011(-0.55)
-0.016(-0.84)
-0.014 (-0.56)
-0.022(-0.84)
-0.010(-0.45)
-0.018(-0.55)
-0.024(-0.73)
-0.020(-0.70)
'
-0.001(-2.06)
-0.001(-2.01)
-0.001(-1.67)
-0.001(-1.58)
-0.001(-2.26)
-0.001(-1.33)
-0.001(-1.33)
-0.001(-0.97)
-83
0.084(2.73)
0.085(2.73)
0.049(0.79)
0.049(0.78)
0.027(0.47)
0.231(3.55)
0.226(3.47)
0.232(3.81)
-83
-0.001(-2.42)
-0.001(-2.42)
-0.001(-0.66)
-0.001(-0.65)
-0.000 (-0.30)
-0.004(-3.40)
-0.004(-3.31)
-0.004(-3.62)
' -83
-0.037(-4.85)
-0.036(-4.70)
-0.020(-1.94)
-0.017(-1.65)
-0.016(-1.72)
-0.046(-3.18)
-0.047(-3.21)
-0.045(-3.28)
' -83
0.001(4.38)
0.001(4.24)
0.000(1.60)
0.000(1.32)
0.000(1.32)
0.001(2.46)
0.001(2.51)
0.001(2.54)
Pseudo R20.090.090.080.070.080.150.140.14
' 1,2261,226713713805513513595z .
� .
:0= ) ( ;1 = -83 -95
.
" " . " 1983 -1995.
-95 . � " . � .
� -83.
46
:'-9.1: Multinomial Logit 1
- )1( )2( )3( )4(
)401 ,600 (
2 0.119 0.121 0.098 (1.15) (1.09) (0.80) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.22) (0.60) (0.63) 1.872 2.496 2.506 2.556 (1.94) (2.25) (2.24) (2.18) ^2 -0.033 -0.043 -0.043 -0.043 (-2.01) (-2.27) (-2.25) (-2.18) 3 No No No Yes
4
2 0.091 0.109 0.149 (1.25) (1.37) (1.63) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.48) (0.89) (1.36) 0.105 0.092 0.127 -0.128 (0.66) (0.56) (0.76) (-0.60) ^2 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 0.002 (-0.54) (-0.47) (-0.61) (0.71) 3 No No No Yes
2 0.077 0.081 0.036 (0.82) (0.82) (0.31) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.38) (0.64) (0.54) 0.434 0.518 0.521 0.800 (1.17) (1.29) (1.32) (1.52) ^2 -0.007 -0.008 -0.008 -0.012 (-1.19) (-1.32) (-1.31) (-1.52)
3 No No No Yes
118 109 109 107 LR 26.42 23.30 25.84 33.39
Z . 1. : ) ( ) .( 2 . � -83 ) -95 .( 3. : -83 , ) ( -83, . 4 . .
47
'-9.2: Multinomial Logit
)1( )2( )3( )4(
1 Chi2 5.80 5.21 6.13 5.46 )401 ,
600 ( Prob.(0.12) (0.16) (0.19) (0.60) Chi2 2.10 0.90 2.75 7.27 Prob.(0.55) (0.82) (0.60) (0.40) Chi2 2.52 1.79 2.70 3.56 Prob.(0.47) (0.62) (0.61) (0.83)
2
Chi2 2.26 2.42 2.89 Prob.(0.52) (0.49) (0.41)
Chi2 0.29 1.01 1.92 Prob. (0.96) (0.80) (0.59)
Chi2 4.97 6.38 6.54 7.44 Prob.(0.17) (0.09) (0.09) (0.06)
^2 Chi2 5.27 6.58 6.58 7.58 Prob.(0.15) (0.09) (0.09) (0.06)
' Chi2 5.41 Prob. (0.14)
Chi2 2.40 Prob. (0.49)
Chi2 0.29 Prob. (0.96)
1. , � ) ( .
2 . .
48
'-10.1: Multinomial Logit 1
- )1( )2( )3( )4( )600 (
2 0.489 0.387 0.393 (3.07) (2.25) (2.34) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (2.18) (0.88) (1.42) -0.035 -0.012 -0.098 0.345 (-0.09) (-0.03) (-0.23) (0.68) ^2 0.001 -0.001 0.001 -0.004 (0.10) (-0.09) (0.19) (-0.55) 3 No No No Yes
4
2 0.195 0.168 0.148 (2.43) (1.82) (1.53) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (1.74) (0.64) (1.26) -0.268 -0.264 -0.278 -0.312 (-1.45) (-1.25) (-1.26) (-1.18) ^2 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.005 (1.62) (1.32) (1.43) (1.38) 3 No No No Yes
2 0.414 0.397 0.420 (3.64) (3.08) (2.95) 0.000 0.000 0.000 (1.33) (0.26) (0.74) -0.233 -0.258 -0.336 -0.288 (-0.97) (-1.01) (-1.23) (-0.81) ^2 0.003 0.003 0.004 0.004 (0.94) (0.86) (1.25) (0.94)
3 No No No Yes
131 107 107 102 LR 27.89 11.69 25.66 42.47
Z . 1. : ) ( ) " ,
.( 2 . � -83 ) -95 .( 3. : -83 , ) ( -83, . 4 . .
49
'-10.2: Multinomial Logit
)1( )2( )3( )4(
1 Chi2 9.72 5.21 8.51 12.74 )600 ( Prob.(0.02) (0.16) (0.07) (0.08) Chi2 7.01 4.15 6.51 8.22 Prob.(0.07) (0.25) (0.16) (0.31) Chi2 13.68 3.00 10.88 16.47 Prob.(0.00) (0.39) (0.03) (0.02)
2
Chi2 16.46 10.80 10.48 Prob.(0.00) (0.01) (0.01)
Chi2 5.40 1.60 2.52 Prob. (0.14) (0.66) (0.47)
Chi2 2.35 1.97 2.14 2.81 Prob.(0.50) (0.58) (0.54) (0.42)
^2 Chi2 2.84 2.11 2.53 3.19 Prob.(0.42) (0.55) (0.47) (0.36)
' Chi2 4.92 Prob. (0.18)
Chi2 6.21 Prob. (0.10)
Chi2 6.95 Prob. (0.07)
1. , � ) ( .
2 . .
