“Everyone talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” Mark Twain

Rising Waters

The Hudson: Rival Uses

Threats

DamsInvasives

Barriers to migration

Increascipitation

Overfishing

Sea level rise

Habitat loss

Targets

Partnership

Scenario Planning model developed by Shell

20 year time frame

Focus on adaptation, not mitigation

Apply social science tools

Factor in human response to climate change

Rising Waters Eastern NY

Chapter

Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve

New York StateWater Resources Institute

at Cornell University

Multi-stakeholder climate change adaptation using scenario planning

Multi-stakeholder scenario planningBusiness/Economic Biological/Social Infrastructure/Serviceacademic - economics academic - biology educationagriculture academic - climatology emergency respondersbusiness groups from imper. areas academic - modeling engineersdevelopment - county academic - social science health caredevelopment - private art infrastructure - shorelinedevelopment - real estate conservation infrastructure - transportationdevelopment - region env. justice/low-income advocates infrastructure - utilitiesdevelopment - town faith infrastructure - water supply & treat.employer - large historic preservationemployer - small philanthropic interestsfinancial community toxics interestsfishinginsurance Othermarinas & boat clubs Land political leaderplanning - county landowners - in flood prone areas steering committeeplanning - local landowners - major private z-(not sure)planning - regional landowners - major public publishing

Rising Waters

Participant Interests

160 people to date !!!

©2005 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

Timeline Scenarios

Team

WorkingGroups

Stakeholders

T1

W5W2W1

T4T3T2

First Workshop

Learning

FinalWorkshop

April 2008 April 2009June - Dec 2008

Creating Applying

2-4 Workshops

W3 W4

Rising Waters

Impact 2030 2080-2100 Average Annual Temp. 2.2 deg F (NYCDEP A1B scenario) 6.2 deg F (NYCDEP A1B scenario)

Average Winter Temp. Increase 3.3 deg F (NECIA) Increase 7.8 deg F (NECIA)

Sea Level 2.8” (Doesn't account for recent research finding increased rates of ice melt) (NYCDEP A1B scenario)

16.5” (Doesn't account for recent research finding increased rates of ice melt) (NYCDEP A1B scenario)

Precipitation 0.6% increase (NYCDEP A1B scenario) 8% increase (NYCDEP A1B scenario)

Snow

Area of snowcover will contract. More precip as rain instead of snow. Denser slushier snow. (NECIA) Snow covered days in the HRV has decreased by another 14-16 days since 2001(Indicators of Climate Change in Northeast)

Area of snowcover will contract. More precip as rain instead of snow. Denser slushier snow. Lose 9 snow-covered days per month. 38% shorter snow season in spring. (NECIA)

Hurricanes/ Nor'eastersIncrease in intensity of strong storms. No definitive link between warming and hurricane frequency. (NECIA/NYCDEP)

Increase in intensity of strong storms. No definitive link between warming and hurricane frequency. (NECIA/NYCDEP)

Extreme Rainfall Events

Increase in winter precip. Max precip. In 5 days increases approx. 10%. One more day of rain >2"/yr. Precip. Intensity (avg amount of rain that falls on any given rainy day) increases 7-8%. (NECIA)

20-30% increase in winter precip. Max precip. In 5 days increases approx. 20%. Approx. 1.5 more days of rain >2"/yr. Precip. Intensity (avg amount of rain that falls on any given rainy day) increases 13-14%. (NECIA)

Heat Waves Average of 22 days each year over 90 deg F and 3 days over 100 deg F annually. (NECIA)

Average of 54 days over 100 deg F and 16 days over 100 deg F annually. (NECIA)

DroughtLittle change. Currently short term (1-3 mo.) drought occurs 1 every 2-3 years. (NECIA)

Slight increase in frequency of short (1-3 mo.) and medium (3-6 mo.) term drought. (NECIA)

Timing of Seasons

On average spring (first leaf, first bloom) earlier by 3 days, first frost 3 days earlier, last frost 2 days later, growing season longer by 5 days. Ice in later, ice-out a full week earlier. Peak streamflow 4 days earlier. (NECIA)

On average spring (first leaf, first bloom) earlier by 10 days, growing season (days between last freeze in spring and first freeze in fall) 5 weeks longer, last frost (in spring) 19 days earlier, first frost (in fall) 13 days later, peak streamflow 12 days earlier. Ice in later, many southern HV lakes often stay ice-free (NECIA)

Water Temps Regional sea surface temps 2 deg F warmer (NECIA) Regional sea surface temps 6.5 deg F warmer (NECIA)

A1B Scenario Assumptions

Rising Waters

Observed Increases in Very Heavy

Precipitation (1958 to 2007)

Heavy downpours have increased; projected to increase further.

Projected Increase in Heat-Related Deaths in Chicago

Heat-related illnesses and deaths are projected to increase, especially in cities.

Earlier Spring

In 1965, Department of Agriculture planted lilacs in 72 Northeast locations

Used for appropriate timing of corn planting

Lilacs bloom two weeks earlier than in 1965

Rising Waters

Temperature increases Greater temperature changes in winter

Rivers in Northeastern have 20 fewer days of ice cover

No more ice harvesting industry on the Hudson

Warmer Weather, especially Winters

Rising Waters

In past three years, region experienced five 100 year flood events

Intense precipitation events doubled in 30 years

Changing salt front in Hudson may impact public drinking water

Flooding likely to encourage shoreline hardening as humans respond to climate change

Intense Rains

Rising Waters More Frequent Flooding

Scenarios Built on 2 Key Concepts

Rising Waters

Scenarios

Y = Character of preparations

X= Amount of preparation

Less use of natural systems

LotsLittle

More use of natural systems

Stagflation rules Give Rivers Room

Procrastination Blues

Nature Be Dammed

Consumer credit issues and federal budget deficit. Rising oil and corn prices

High unemployment: NYC fares poorly

Green tech is bright spot in regional economy

Little state/federal monies for engineered solutions

Tax breaks and land use regulation used as “carrots and sticks”

Development moves to higher ground (north in Hudson Valley)

Rising Waters

Stagflation Rules

Local climate will become more warm, wet, and wild.

Increases in extreme weather

Sea-level rise is serious long-term threat, but not likely to exceed a foot between now and 2030.

Capacity to adapt will depend on local land-use planning, new regulations of the flood plain, land protection, and smart infrastructure investments.

Rising Waters

Key Findings

FloodingSpring 2012

FloodingFall 2009

FloodingSpring 2011

Extreme WeatherScenario 3:Nature Be Dammed

Extreme Precipitation Event and Associated Area of Flooding

80 Response Options Evaluated Rising

Waters

Reduce minimum size of wetlands regulated by state

Distributed rain water systems :rain gardens

Create wildlife corridors via land bridges, etc.

Restore streams; revegetate banks

Rising Waters

Top Options across Scenarios

Improve community preparedness for extreme weather and local climate-change threats.

Prepare communities for climate change by incorporating impacts into land-use decisions

Guide future development out of flood-prone areas

Improve resilience of shorelines, natural systems, and critical infrastructure to impacts of extreme weather

Establish climate-change-adaptation funding

Apply cost-effective green technologies and use natural systems to reduce vulnerability of people and properties to flooding and heat waves

Conserve healthy forest, wetland, and river ecosystems as well as agricultural resources because they are vital to successful adaptation to climate change.

Rising Waters: Seven Recommendations

Five coalitions• Communications/disaster

planning• Sustainable Shorelines • Floodplain development• Adaptation funding• Greening Municipalities

Update plan in 2010 Measure results

Rising Waters

General Plan for Action

Community planning and preparedness for extreme weather. Examples:

Include climate change info in hazard mitigation plans Public access to cool buildings during heat waves Community outreach campaigns Partnership with

American Red Cross

Rising Waters

Identify sustainable methods for shoreline erosion control

Require state agencies to conduct flood audits

Remove incentives for non-sustainable shoreline management methods

Share best practices for fish friendly habitat in shoreline reconstruction

Rising Waters

Resilience of Shorelines

Benthic and LIDAR mapping Floodplain spatial planning; assess connectivity along 6

tributaries; Review regulatory incentives and viable strategic pathways What are the resources at risk? Wetlands, etc,

Overall goal: Slow down the waters; connect the floodplains

Rising Waters

Floodplain Protection

Fewer refugia

(spawning & rearing)

Humans build levees

etc. to protect

property

Degraded floodplains &

riparian areas

Inc. velocity & sediment

in river channels

Targets: Diadromous Fish

Climate Factor:Inc. in

amount & intensity of

precip.

Stress:Decreased recruitment

Fewer refugia

(spawning & rearing)

Humans build levees

etc. to protect

property

Degraded floodplains &

riparian areas

Inc. velocity & sediment

in river channels

Targets: Diadromous Fish

Climate Factor:Inc. in

amount & intensity of

precip.

Stress:Decreased recruitment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Aw arenessof GlobalClimateChange

Aw arenessof Hudson

Valleyimpacts

Concernabout

HudsonValley

impacts

Aw arenessof GlobalClimateChange

Aw arenessof Hudson

Valleyimpacts

Concernabout

HudsonValley

impacts

Prior to Rising Waters Current

Very Low

Low

Moderate

High

Very High

Rising Waters:

Preliminary Results: Participants

To Learn More:

Unquenchable: Robert Glennon

Heatstroke: Tony Barnosky Early Spring: Amy Seidl The Rising Sea: Pilkey and

Young

Rising Waters

“Noah was right.  Let's get busy.”

Rising Waters

Nature.org/risingwaters