Ιδιώτες | Eurobank - KEY UPCOMING HIGHLIGHTS...Antonis Samaras, Deputy Prime Minister...

DISCLAIMER This report has been issued by Eurobank Ergasias SA (ldquoEurobankrdquo) and may not be reproduced in any manner or provided to any other person Each person that receives a copy by acceptance thereof

represents and agrees that it will not distribute or provide it to any other person This report is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein

Eurobank and others associated with it may have positions in and may effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking

services for those companies The investments discussed in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on the specific investment objectives and financial position The information contained

herein is for informative purposes only and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but it has not been verified by Eurobank The opinions expressed herein may not necessarily coincide

with those of any member of Eurobank No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made as to the accuracy completeness correctness timeliness or fairness of the information or opinions

herein all of which are subject to change without notice No responsibility or liability whatsoever or howsoever arising is accepted in relation to the contents hereof by Eurobank or any of its directors

officers or employees Any articles studies comments etc reflect solely the views of their author Any unsigned notes are deemed to have been produced by the editorial team Any articles studies

comments etc that are signed by members of the editorial team express the personal views of their author

1

November 11 2014

HIGHLIGHTS

WORLD ECONOMIC amp MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

GLOBAL MARKETS Major European bourses opened higher on Tuesday taking their lead from

the positive tone in Wall Street overnight In FX markets the latest bout of increased risk appetite

dented the JPYrsquos safe-haven appeal with the USDJPY hitting a fresh seven-year high earlier today

GREECE Speaking to reporters y-day after his meeting with Greecersquos Premier Antonis Samaras

Deputy Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos said that he expects troika heads to return to Athens soon

enough so as Greecersquos current program review to be completed in time for the December 8th Eurogroup

where the prospect of the country being granted a precautionary credit line after the expiration of the

EFSF lending program is expected to be addressed

SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE

SERBIA The dinar extended its recent losses on Monday to hit a new record low against the euro

amid persisting fiscal consolidation concerns and uncertainty surrounding the progress of the ongoing

IMF negotiations

ROMANIA The Ministry of Finance sold as planned RON 1bn of 1-year T-Bills on Monday at an

average accepted yield of 163 below market expectations of 170-175 while the bid-to-cover

ratio stood at 224

BULGARIA The newly appointed finance minister Vladislav Goranov said on Monday that the

recently endorsed government will discuss a new budget revision withdrawing a previous one

proposed by the caretaker government

CESEE MARKETS CESEE stock markets were mixed in European trade on Monday while

currencies broadly weakened and government bonds recorded modest gains after low inflation data

from Romania and Hungary released earlier on the day added to expectations for further monetary

easing in the region

KEY UPCOMING DATA amp EVENTS THIS WEEK GLOBAL US November 13 Initial

jobless claims (Nov 8)

November 14

o Retail sales (Oct)

o UoM consumer

sentiment (Nov)

EUROZONE

November 14

o GDP (Q3 flash)

o HICP (Oct f)

SEE

SERBIA

November 11 HICP

(Oct)

November 13 MPC

meeting

ROMANIA

November 10

o Trade balance (Sep)

o Industrial production

(Sep)

o 25 2019 T-Bonds

auction

November 11 CPI (Oct)

November 13

o Current account (Sep)

o 2023 T-Bonds auction

November 14

o GDP (Q3 A)

BULGARIA

November 10

o Trade balance (Sep)

o UE rate (Oct)

November 12 CPI (Oct)

November 14 GDP

(Q3 p)

Source Reuters Bloomberg

Eurobank Global Markets

Research

November 14 2013

2

November 11 2014

Latest world economic amp market

developments GLOBAL MARKETS

Major European bourses opened higher on Tuesday taking their lead from the positive tone in

Wall Street overnight where both the Down Jones industrial average and SampP 500 indices

marked a record closing high for the fourth consecutive session mainly supported by encouraging

Q3 corporate earnings results In FX markets the latest bout of increased risk appetite dented the

JPYrsquos safe-haven appeal with the USDJPY hitting a fresh seven-year high of 11600 earlier

today Against this background data showing that Japanrsquos current account surplus rose more than

expected on an annual basis in September failed to exert a positive impact on the JPY Elsewhere

the EURUSD was standing close to 1240005 at the time of writing not far from a near two-

week trough of 12360 touched a couple of sessions earlier amid persisting market talk that the

ECB is likely to adopt additional unconventional measures within its mandate in the coming

months to address the risk of the euro arearsquos inflation remaining low for a prolonged period

Todayrsquos global calendar is light suggesting that range-trading will likely prevail

GREECE

According to ELSTAT revised data that set 2010 as the new base year the Production Index in

Industry fell for the seventh straight month in September by 51YoY mainly due to a hefty

fall in electricity production Elsewhere Greecersquos HICP fell by 18YoY in October the highest

annual pace of decline in the last five months remaining below the eurozonersquos average for the

39th straight month Speaking to reporters y-day after his meeting with Greecersquos Premier

Antonis Samaras Deputy Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos said that he expects troika heads

to return to Athens soon enough so as Greecersquos current program review to be completed in time

for the December 8th Eurogroup where the prospect of the country being granted a precautionary

credit line after the expiration of the EFSF lending program is expected to be addressed

According to local press reports the date for the return of the troika heads has yet to be officially

announced as discussions with domestic authorities via e-mails on key issues underlying the

current review continue

ppetropouloueurobankgr

Latest developments in the CESEE region

CESEE MARKETS

CESEE stock markets were mixed in European trade on Monday while currencies broadly

weakened and government bonds recorded modest gains after low inflation data from Romania

and Hungary added to expectations for further monetary easing ahead in the region In more

detail CPI in Hungary declined by 04YoY in October almost in line with a record decrease of

05YoY marked a month earlier and coming in against expectations for a marginally milder

03YoY drop Meanwhile the annual rate of increase in consumer prices in Romania stood at

14 over the same month sliding marginally below the Central Bankrsquos inflation target of 15-

35 and standing not too far from a lifetime trough of 07 recorded in June The marketrsquos

median forecast was for an unchanged reading from Septemberrsquos 15YoY print Recall that the

National Bank of Romania resumed its rate-cutting cycle in August after a six month pause

having rendered 75bps of cumulative rate reductions thereafter while the door remains open for

further monetary easing in early 2015 On the other hand Hungaryrsquos Central Bank signaled in

July that it completed its 2-year monetary easing cycle following 490bps of cumulative rate cuts

However headwinds to the regionrsquos economic growth prospects and the latest ECB monetary

policy decisions as well as expectations for further action ahead recently stirred speculation

about a potential resumption of MNBrsquos rate easing cycle early next year

gphokaeurobankgr

1450

1550

1650

1750

1850

1950

2050

2150

Nov-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

SampP 500

Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank

Global

Markets Research

250

270

290

310

330

350

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

STOXX 600


Global

Markets Research

600

800

1000

1200

1400

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

ATHENS GEN INDEX


Global Markets Research

800

900

1000

1100

1200

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

MSCI


Global

Markets Research

L-T ccy Moodys SampP Fitch

SERBIA B1 BB- B+

ROMANIA Baa3 BBB- BBB-

BULGARIA Baa2 BBB- BBB-

CYPRUS Caa3 B+ B-

Credit Ratings



November 14 2013

3

November 11 2014

SERBIA

(Belgrade 10112014 1700 CET) Market Developments The dinar extended its recent

losses on Monday amid persisting fiscal consolidation concerns and uncertainty surrounding

the progress of ongoing IMF negotiations Despite renewed CB intervention (ca euro20mn) at

levels around 1199012010 the EURRSD ended 03 higher on the day at 1200525 within

distance from a new record peak of 1201535 touched intraday Although negative annual real

GDP growth readings in Q2 and Q3 2014 bode well for further monetary easing ahead we

anticipate the Central Bank to hold its fire at its MPC meeting on Thursday and maintain its

key policy rate unchanged at 850 due to the domestic currencyrsquos recent sharp depreciation

ivanradoviceurobankrs

DjordjeLuciceurobankrs

gphokaeurobankgr

ROMANIA

(Bucharest 11112014 850 EET) Latest Political amp Macro Developments According to

data adjusted by number of working days and seasonality industrial output rose by 49YoY

in September after a 47YoY advance in August bringing the annual rate of increase to

85YoY over the first nine months of the year Separately the trade deficit widened by

166YoY to euro4854mn in September pushing the year-to-date shortfall 26YoY higher to

euro428bn The breakdown of the data showed that exports increased by 71YoY to euro391bn in

January-September while imports rose by 66YoY to euro434bn over the same period Market

Developments The leu recovered some of last weekrsquos losses on Monday trailing a rally

staged by the forint on the back of somewhat easing concerns about the prospects of

Hungaryrsquos domestic banking sector Along these lines the EURRON closed at 4425044270

recoiling from opening levels of 4434044360 and moving further below from a near 2-month

peak of 4441030 hit late last week amid NBR Governor Mugur Isarescursquos recent dovish

comments In the local rates market interest rate swaps were little changed on Monday with

the corresponding 1 3 6 and 12-month mid implied yields ending at 11 14 16 and

17 respectively In other news the Ministry of Finance sold as planned RON 1bn of 1-year

T-Bills on Monday at an average accepted yield of 163 below market expectations of 170-

175 while the bid-to-cover ratio stood at 224 In the secondary market government

bonds were little changed on Mondayrsquos session with the corresponding 3 and 10-year mid-

yields ending at 225 and 10Y 38 respectively

Romulus-DanielGeorgescubancpostro

gphokaeurobankgr

BULGARIA

(Sofia 11112014 1000 EET) Latest Political amp Macro Developments The newly

appointed finance minister Vladislav Goranov said on Monday that the recently endorsed

government will discuss an updated 2014 budget withdrawing a previous one proposed by the

caretaker government The new general government deficit target for 2014 will be set at 37

of GDP instead of 40 suggested by the caretaker government above the 30 Maastricht

criterion According to preliminary data the general government fiscal shortfall stood at 22

of GDP over the first ten months of the year already in excess of an initial deficit target of

18 In order to finance the higher deficit the government plans to raise the debt level by

BGN45bn The government is anticipated to agree on the proposed budget changes today and

subsequently submit them to parliament for approval In other news the Ministry of Finance

reopened on Monday a 5-year government bond selling BGN 55mn at a bidcover ratio of 211

and an average accepted yield of 261 below 242 achieved last month

VBotevapostbankbg

gphokaeurobankgr

SERBIA Indicators 2012 2013 2014f

Real GDP growth -15 25 -04

CPI (pa yoy ) 78 78 25

Budget BalanceGDP -75 -58 -80

Current AccountGDP -109 -50 -42

EURRSD (eop) 11237 11457 11700

2013 current 2014f

Policy Rate (eop) 950 850 800

Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg

Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities

ROMANIA Indicators 2012 2013e 2014f

Real GDP growth 06 35 30

CPI (pa yoy ) 33 40 17



EURRON (eop) 444 446 440

2013 current 2014




BULGARIA Indicators 2012 2013 2014f


CPI (pa yoy ) 30 09 -09


Current AccountGDP -09 19 10

EURBGN (eop)

current 2013 2014f

Policy Rate (eop) NA NA NA

195583



November 14 2013

4

November 11 2014

Government Bonds Commodities

Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD

SampP 500 203826 03 103 EURUSD 12408 -01 -97 UST - 10yr 236 0 -67 GOLD 1151 00 -45

Nikkei 225 1712411 20 51 GBPUSD 1585 01 -43 Bund-10yr 084 1 -109 BRENT CRUDE 177 00 61

STOXX 600 33899 04 33 USDJPY 11594 -09 -92 JGB - 10yr 049 4 -25 LMEX 3098 -08 -19

GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX

Source Reuters Bloomberg Eurobank Global Markets Research

Data updated as of 1220 EET

November 14 2013

5

November 11 2014

Contributors to this issue

Vessela Boteva Zoran Korac Galatia Phoka

Expert trading desk Eurobank Bulgaria FX dealer Eurobank ad Beograd Emerging Markets Analyst Eurobank Ergasias

+359 (2) 8166 491 +381 11 206 5821 +30 210 3718922

vbotevapostbankbg

zorankoraceurobankrs galatiaphokaeurobankgr

Bogdan Radulescu CFA Ivan Radović

Senior Trader Bancpost Head Brokerage Department Eurobank and

Beograd

+40 21 3656291 +381 11 30 27 533

bogdanradulescubancpostro ivanradoviceurobankrs

Eurobank Ergasias SA 8 Othonos Str 105 57 Athens tel +30 210 33 37 000 fax +30 210 33 37 190 email EurobankGlobalMarketsResearcheurobankgr

Eurobank Global Markets Research More research editions available at htppwwweurobankgrresearch

Greece Macro Monitor Periodic overview of key macro amp market developments in Greece

Daily overview of global markets amp the SEE region

Daily overview of key developments in global markets amp the SEE region

South East Europe Monthly

Monthly overview of economic amp market developments in the SEE region

Global Markets amp SEE themes Special focus reports on Global Markets amp the SEE region

Subscribe electronically at htppwwweurobankgrresearch Follow us on twitter httpstwittercomEurobank Group

Eurobank Global Markets Research

Global Markets Research Team

Dr Platon Monokroussos

Chief Market Economist

pmonokrousoseurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 903

Paraskevi Petropoulou G10 Markets Analyst

ppetropouloueurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 991

Galatia Phoka Emerging Markets Analyst

gphokaeurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 922

Global Markets Sales

Nikos Laios Head of Treasury Sales

nlaioseurobankgr + 30 210 37 18 910

Alexandra Papathanasiou Head of Institutional Sales

apapathanasioueurobankgr +30 210 37 18 996

John Seimenis Head of Corporate Sales

yseimeniseurobankgr +30 210 37 18 909

Achilleas Stogioglou Head of Private Banking Sales

astogiogloueurobankgr +30 210 37 18 904

George Petrogiannis Head of Shipping Sales

gpetrogianniseurobankgr +30 210 37 18 915

Vassilis Gioulbaxiotis Head International Sales

vgioulbaxiotiseurobankgr +30 210 3718995

November 14 2013

2

November 11 2014

Latest world economic amp market

developments GLOBAL MARKETS

Major European bourses opened higher on Tuesday taking their lead from the positive tone in

Wall Street overnight where both the Down Jones industrial average and SampP 500 indices

marked a record closing high for the fourth consecutive session mainly supported by encouraging

Q3 corporate earnings results In FX markets the latest bout of increased risk appetite dented the

JPYrsquos safe-haven appeal with the USDJPY hitting a fresh seven-year high of 11600 earlier

today Against this background data showing that Japanrsquos current account surplus rose more than

expected on an annual basis in September failed to exert a positive impact on the JPY Elsewhere

the EURUSD was standing close to 1240005 at the time of writing not far from a near two-

week trough of 12360 touched a couple of sessions earlier amid persisting market talk that the

ECB is likely to adopt additional unconventional measures within its mandate in the coming

months to address the risk of the euro arearsquos inflation remaining low for a prolonged period

Todayrsquos global calendar is light suggesting that range-trading will likely prevail

GREECE

According to ELSTAT revised data that set 2010 as the new base year the Production Index in

Industry fell for the seventh straight month in September by 51YoY mainly due to a hefty

fall in electricity production Elsewhere Greecersquos HICP fell by 18YoY in October the highest

annual pace of decline in the last five months remaining below the eurozonersquos average for the

39th straight month Speaking to reporters y-day after his meeting with Greecersquos Premier

Antonis Samaras Deputy Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos said that he expects troika heads

to return to Athens soon enough so as Greecersquos current program review to be completed in time

for the December 8th Eurogroup where the prospect of the country being granted a precautionary

credit line after the expiration of the EFSF lending program is expected to be addressed

According to local press reports the date for the return of the troika heads has yet to be officially

announced as discussions with domestic authorities via e-mails on key issues underlying the

current review continue

ppetropouloueurobankgr

Latest developments in the CESEE region

CESEE MARKETS

CESEE stock markets were mixed in European trade on Monday while currencies broadly

weakened and government bonds recorded modest gains after low inflation data from Romania

and Hungary added to expectations for further monetary easing ahead in the region In more

detail CPI in Hungary declined by 04YoY in October almost in line with a record decrease of

05YoY marked a month earlier and coming in against expectations for a marginally milder

03YoY drop Meanwhile the annual rate of increase in consumer prices in Romania stood at

14 over the same month sliding marginally below the Central Bankrsquos inflation target of 15-

35 and standing not too far from a lifetime trough of 07 recorded in June The marketrsquos

median forecast was for an unchanged reading from Septemberrsquos 15YoY print Recall that the

National Bank of Romania resumed its rate-cutting cycle in August after a six month pause

having rendered 75bps of cumulative rate reductions thereafter while the door remains open for

further monetary easing in early 2015 On the other hand Hungaryrsquos Central Bank signaled in

July that it completed its 2-year monetary easing cycle following 490bps of cumulative rate cuts

However headwinds to the regionrsquos economic growth prospects and the latest ECB monetary

policy decisions as well as expectations for further action ahead recently stirred speculation

about a potential resumption of MNBrsquos rate easing cycle early next year

gphokaeurobankgr

1450

1550

1650

1750

1850

1950

2050

2150

Nov-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

SampP 500


Global

Markets Research

250

270

290

310

330

350

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

STOXX 600


Global

Markets Research

600

800

1000

1200

1400

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

ATHENS GEN INDEX



800

900

1000

1100

1200

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

MSCI


Global

Markets Research

L-T ccy Moodys SampP Fitch

SERBIA B1 BB- B+

ROMANIA Baa3 BBB- BBB-

BULGARIA Baa2 BBB- BBB-

CYPRUS Caa3 B+ B-

Credit Ratings



November 14 2013

3

November 11 2014

SERBIA











gphokaeurobankgr

ROMANIA





















gphokaeurobankgr

BULGARIA













VBotevapostbankbg

gphokaeurobankgr



CPI (pa yoy ) 78 78 25



EURRSD (eop) 11237 11457 11700

2013 current 2014f






CPI (pa yoy ) 33 40 17



EURRON (eop) 444 446 440

2013 current 2014






CPI (pa yoy ) 30 09 -09



EURBGN (eop)

current 2013 2014f


195583



November 14 2013

4

November 11 2014









November 14 2013

5

November 11 2014




+359 (2) 8166 491 +381 11 206 5821 +30 210 3718922

vbotevapostbankbg




Beograd

+40 21 3656291 +381 11 30 27 533

































November 14 2013

3

November 11 2014

SERBIA











gphokaeurobankgr

ROMANIA





















gphokaeurobankgr

BULGARIA













VBotevapostbankbg

gphokaeurobankgr



CPI (pa yoy ) 78 78 25



EURRSD (eop) 11237 11457 11700

2013 current 2014f






CPI (pa yoy ) 33 40 17



EURRON (eop) 444 446 440

2013 current 2014






CPI (pa yoy ) 30 09 -09



EURBGN (eop)

current 2013 2014f


195583



November 14 2013

4

November 11 2014









November 14 2013

5

November 11 2014




+359 (2) 8166 491 +381 11 206 5821 +30 210 3718922

vbotevapostbankbg




Beograd

+40 21 3656291 +381 11 30 27 533

































November 14 2013

4

November 11 2014









November 14 2013

5

November 11 2014




+359 (2) 8166 491 +381 11 206 5821 +30 210 3718922

vbotevapostbankbg




Beograd

+40 21 3656291 +381 11 30 27 533

































November 14 2013

5

November 11 2014




+359 (2) 8166 491 +381 11 206 5821 +30 210 3718922

vbotevapostbankbg




Beograd

+40 21 3656291 +381 11 30 27 533

































Ιδιώτες | Eurobank - KEY UPCOMING HIGHLIGHTS...Antonis Samaras, Deputy Prime Minister...

Documents

Transcript of Ιδιώτες | Eurobank - KEY UPCOMING HIGHLIGHTS...Antonis Samaras, Deputy Prime Minister...