不動產投資

Class meeting: Monday 15:30:18:20

Class room: 商館 260204

Your Instructor

• 姜堯民• 政大財管系副教授• Ph.D. in finance, The University of Iowa, De

cember 1996• MBA, 政大企研所 , 1990• e-mail: ymchiang@cc.nccu.edu.tw• Home page: http://140.138.98.3/fnymchiang

Syllabus 說明• Course Description:

• Texts and Supplementary Notes:

• Course Requirements:

• Evaluation:

• Course Outline:

• Notes

房地產市場分析• 臺灣地區不動產市場的三大循環波動

–民國 62.63 年間–民國 68.69 年間–民國 75-78 年間

房地產景氣四指標• 經濟成長率• 物價波動情形• 貨幣供給增加率• 放款利率

( 表一 )

房地產景氣波動背景

經濟成長率 物價上漲率 貨幣供給增加率 放款利率 房價上漲率民國 62.63年間

12% 8.2%, 47.5% 30%,50% 10% 60%

民國 68.69年間

10%-13% 9.7%, 19.0% 25.1%-37.0% 10% 100%

民國 75-78年間

12% 1.3%, 4.4% 51.4%,36.8%,24.40%

4.5% 200%

房價高漲主因–民國 62.63 年間–民國 68.69 年間

世界性石油危機造成物價上漲所致–民國 75-78 年間

市場游資充斥 ,投資風氣熱絡 .

房地產景氣低迷• 經濟景氣趨緩• 股市崩盤• 土地及建築法令變更

– 80 年 , 容積率管制– 81 年 , 建議修改土地增值稅採時價課徵及課空地稅 .

房地產景氣復甦展望• 空屋太多 supply > demand

景氣復甦 ???

經濟成長率 物價上漲率 貨幣供給增加率 放款利率民國 85年 6% 4% 9%-14% 8%

不動產特質• Immobility: every parcel of real estate has

fixed location• localized markets

• environmental influences

• Unique location

• Indestructibility

• Heterogeneous asset• not fungible asset

投資目的• Investor broadly defined to include households pu

rchasing a home for personal consumption and those investing in commercial real estate

• Maximize wealth either explicitly or implicitly• Operationalize object: maximize PV of expected f

uture benefit• Expected benefit = f(physical asset, rights, infrastr

ucture, supply, demand, economic base)

投資標的• What type of Real asset or Financial assets

do real estate investors invest in?

- Physical Assets

– Property rights– Contracts: Financial Assets

不動產市場特性摘要• Localized market

• Perception*investment good *consumption good

• Relatively uninformed participants

• High transaction cost• search cost, brokers fees, legal fees etc

• Government intervention• zoning, other land use regulation, rent control, real estate

taxation, building codes

不動產開發

services

tax

user fees

capitalcapital gain

Political SystemSocial System

Enterprise System

Public

Sector

ConsumptionSector

ProductionSector

Sites

serv

ices

tax

rentals, purchases

FinanceSector

Interest

Construction CostRegulation

Mortgage PaymentsREGULATION

MACRO

ECONOMICS

不動產開發參與者• Space Consumption Sector: demand

• individual consumers, collective consumers, future users

• Space Production Sector: supply• developer, lawyers, engineers, architect, material etc

• Financing Sector: financial markets• construction lenders, permanent lenders, equity partners

• Public Sector: regulatory environment• regulation, zoning, building codes, tangible and intangible

services

– So where do telephone, gas, electricity, cable TV companies and the like belong?

不動產財務

During Construction After Construction

project cost

construction loan

developers equityJVP equity

Permanent loan

Long term investors equity

Permanent Loan Closing

不動產財務範疇• Sources of funds

• The financing process

• Mortgage underwriting

• Secondary mortgage markets

• Securitization

不動產相關事業• Residential brokerage

• Commercial brokerage

• Industrial brokerage

• Farm brokerage

• Property management

• Rental listing services

• Real estate appraising

• Government service

• Land development

不動產相關事業 - continued

• Urban planning

• Mortgage financing

• Securities and syndications

• Consulting

• Research and education

• Full-time investors

Listingagreement

offer andacceptance

ownership

Closing orescrow

Buyersfinancing

Propertyowner decideto sell

Individualbecomes alicensed realestate agent

Identify the property

Property rights involved

Buyers evaluates property

Mortgages

Deed of trust

Deed preparation

Title search and titleinsurance

Condo, co-op and PUD

lease

Land-use control

Taxes and assessments

Property insurance

Forms of ownership

Source of financing

Lending practice

Contract law

Contract law

Value the property

Source: Harwood & Jacobus, Real Estate Principles

這學期課程內容Week Date Topic H&J1 9/25 An overview of real estate Ch.12 10/2 Real estate economics Ch.243 10/9 Nature of real estate Ch.24 10/16 Rights and interests in land Ch.35 10/23 Legal characteristics Ch.4-96 10/30 Real estate financing Ch10, 117 11/6 Mathematics of real estate finance8 11/13 Sources of funds Ch.129 11/20 Midterm exam10 11/27 The secondary mortgage market Ch.1211 12/4 Mortgage-backed securities Ch.1212 12/11 Real estate leases Ch.1513 12/18 An overview of real estate investment decision Ch.2514 12/25 (Holiday)15 1/1 (Holiday)16 1/8 Real estate securitization17 1/15 Final exam