Winter 2004 The wired society: Interview with James MartinBusiness Strategy Review44

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Dr. James Martin has been called “the guru ofthe Information Age” and is an authority on thesocial and commercial ramifications of computersand technology. He received a Pulitzer Prizenomination for his book The Wired Society: AChallenge for Tomorrow based on his predictionsand progressive views about technology.

James Martin is founder and chairman emeritusof Headstrong, a global consultancy that helpsleading companies create real business value

from digital technologies. He has acted as anadvisor to the UK government on restructuringtelecommunications in the UK and changing therole of the Post Office, and consulted on planning,product and service strategies for the long termfuture with AT&T, IBM, Honeywell, TexasInstruments, and Xerox. He has been a member ofthe software Scientific Advisory Board of the USDepartment of Defense. In its 25th anniversary issue, Computerworld, rankedDr. Martin fourth among the 25 individuals who havemost influenced the world of computer science.After the recent opening of the James MartinInstitute for Science and Civilization in Oxford,James Martin talked to Des Dearlove about thecurrent state of technology and how it is likely to impact on business in the future.

Why did you decide to found the James MartinInstitute for Science and Civilization? The first part of the 21st century has some extremedangers and opportunities. They are examined in myforthcoming book. This entire subject needs thoroughresearch and accurate data collection. Because theconsequences of getting it wrong are so immense, itis, perhaps, the most important subject we shouldbe studying today. Society needs a School forCivilization, not just a School for Business.

You are famous for predicting future trends –particularly in technology. But isn’t the work offuturists ultimately just guesswork. After all manypeople were predicting technology would createmore leisure time but we instead we appear to beworking harder than ever.In my view, responsible studies of the future arelogical explorations based on what we already know.Understanding the future is a matter of logic, history,science, and the understanding of complexorganisations. Many things about the future areuncertain, but demographics are not. Also, muchcan be predicted about future technology becauseof the lengthy time lag between research in the laband application in the field. For example, when Iwrote The Wired Society in the mid-1970s, therewere no personal computers, and the internet waslittle more than an idea about how large computerscould be interlinked. Some 25 years later the bookwas hailed as an astonishingly accurate forecast ofa world using the global internet.

There are other major trends that are foreseeable,some with a fair degree of accuracy. I call thesemacrotrends in the book – that is, an ongoing trendthat has substantial consequences and seems eitherinevitable or very difficult to change.

Much can be predicted, at least roughly, aboutfuture technology – for example, the globalisation ofnew media, and some of the consequences ofgenome mapping. Some of today’s macrotrends willcreate spectacular business opportunities.

Business Strategy ReviewThe wired society: Interview with James Martin Winter 2004 45

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There have been many dramatic technologicaladvances in recent years. What do you think havebeen the most significant ?They would certainly include: The web, fiber optics,real-time business-to-business communication,micro-sensors, wireless technology, data mining,medical imaging, genome mapping. The mostsignificant changes are perhaps in research and notyet in products – nanotechnology, medicine relatedto a person’s genes, genetic modification, the grid,focused psychotropic drugs, technology forautomated evolution, intelligent robotics, fuel cells,fourth-generation nuclear power, carbon nanotubes.

Do you see the pace of technological change everreaching a plateau?The rate of change is relentlessly increasing.Technology is like an avalanche gaining momentumand force as it hurtles down the mountainside. Eachgeneration of technology provides better tools fordesigning the next generation, and generationsfollow each other increasingly quickly. The industrialrevolution set the avalanche going, moving slowly atfirst, but now it is thundering down the mountainsidewith awesome momentum. And we can be sure that

avalanche is not going to slow down now. On thecontrary, it will increase in speed and power for therest of this century. Only a catastrophe ofunspeakable scale could stop it. Many factors willdrive the relentless acceleration, including highlydeveloped computer intelligence feeding on itself,and the intriguing potential of automating evolution.

So how is technology going to impact on business inthe near future?Growing innovation; a growing need forentrepreneurship; a growing need for freedom oftrade globally. There will be long-term on-goingincrease in productivity, perhaps about 2.5 per centper year in advanced countries; a much higher rateof growth in China and India. Plus a massiveincrease in Chinese imports and exports. For theconsumer: increased choice, increased pressure,but not necessarily increased happiness.

What are the big issues relating to technology facingbusiness?Firstly, important and inevitable e-business transitionswere put on hold in many corporations in 2000 to2003. They now need to be implemented. Secondly,there is a steady movement of jobs, including high-tech jobs, from affluent countries to China, Indiaand other countries.

Thirdly, in America and Europe: inadequateeducation and inadequate resources for the highest-quality education.

Technology isn’t always beneficial. What is thepotential downside for civilization? Low-cost weapons of mass destruction, especiallybiological weapons, producible by individuals orgroups rather than governments. The need to builda counter-terrorist infrastructure in Westernsocieties, with a consequent redefinition of what wemean by privacy.

Extraordinary divergence between the mostcapable and least capable countries. Within eachcountry, a growing divide between the most capableand least capable people.

Children with low attention span (ADHD), andgrowing acceptance of violence. Increasing use ofmore sophisticated drugs by children (beyondRitalin) with unknown consequences.

The serious growth of a skill/wisdom gap. The brightest people are driven intensely into ever more demanding skills needing deeper andnarrower knowledge. Wisdom may be scarce whenwe need it most.

All technology has the capability for good or evil.The extraordinary technology of the 21st centuryhas the capability for great good or great evil. Thespectrum from good to evil is becoming muchlarger, and the larger this range, the greater theneed to accelerate the best technologies andsuppress the worst. It doesn’t make sense to embrace technology just because it’s there, as wehave done in the past. We need the wisdom torecognize that some new technologies are aGodsend and others could wreck civilization. Energy technologies that will stop the greenhouseeffect are vital; plutonium and smallpox should bebanished from the planet.

We have to realise that as the avalanche gainsmomentum, there’s going to come a time when itwill become very difficult to control. Either we learnhow to control technology or it will destroy us, inone way or another.

And the upside?A change from very narrow cultural diversity to extremecultural diversity. Advanced intellectual power tools.Access to an extraordinary diversity of such tools onnetworks of immense bandwidth. Affluence and newtechnologies will give us the opportunity to rethinkwhat civilization means. New and different civilizationswill develop in different parts of the world.

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Either we learn how to control technology or it will destroyus, in one way or another.

Why is it that many technological solutions fail todeliver on their promises? Is this likely to change?Irrational over-enthusiasm; inadequateimplementation skills; inadequate attention to validcalculations of return on investment; failure to havehigh-quality understanding between businessleaders and leaders of technical innovation;inadequate understanding of the broad-spectrumconsequences; these are just some of the reasons.Is it likely to change? Probably not, but the mostsavvy executives get it right.

What will it be like to be a CEO in the future? Being a top CEO will be an increasingly demandingjob, with an increasing ability to increase shareholdervalue. Almost every industry needs radicallyreinventing. The increasing complexity and globalismwill require increasing teamwork to integrate therequisite forms of professionalism. Much greaterattention will be needed to social and global problems.New forms of CEO-like leadership will be desperatelyneeded in dealing the world’s grand-scale problems.

Are you optimistic about the future?Given our advancing knowledge, if we fail to create agreat civilization it will be because of avoidableproblems caused by greed, lack of education,massive vested interests and bad governance. It maybe because companies drive excessive consumerismand maximize profits by focusing on the lowestcommon denominator. It may be because falsemythologies prevail instead of science. It may be thatscience misleads us by focusing only on things it canmeasure. It may be because the West is stuck in itspast. A wealthy society could be like Huxley’s BraveNew World; it could be a society of drug-damagedshop-till-you-drop imbeciles addled with garbagetelevision, or it could be a society educated to enjoythe finest pleasures of civilization.

The task of the 21st century is to achievesurvivability – to eliminate the factors that coulddestroy humanity. Many actions are needed; manyleverage factors are available to us. The correctionsneed to be made sooner rather than later. Thelonger we delay, the greater the risk. �

Business Strategy ReviewThe wired society: Interview with James Martin Winter 2004 47

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James Martin: hardwired

London Business School Regent’s ParkLondon NW1 4SAUnited KingdomTel +44 (0)20 7262 5050Fax +44 (0)20 7724 7875www.london.eduA Graduate School of the University of London