© 2002 IBM Corporation Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 1 Next Generation Internet Policy: What will Shape the...

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© 2002 IBM CorporationAmsterdam 25 Apr 2007

Next Generation Internet Policy:What will Shape the Future of the Internet?

Michael R. NelsonDirector, Internet Technology & StrategyIBM [email protected]

Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 © 2007 IBM Corporation

My Background

B.S., geology, CaltechPh.D., geophysics, MIT1988 -- Congressional Science Fellow4 years as Senator Gore's science advisor4 years as IT policy wonk at White House1998-1999 -- Technologist at FCC8 years at IBM Industry Strategy Council, Internet2Former Chairman, TPRCFormer VP, Public Policy, Internet Society


50 Things I learned in Washington

LESSON #1

ALWAYS have a good bumper sticker



LESSON #3

To make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”



LESSON #3

To make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”

(preferably true)



LESSON #5

State your conclusions upfront


Conclusions

We are entering the third phase of the Internet As profound as the World Wide Web

The next 2-3 years will define the NGI

Standards and business practices are shaping the Net as much—or more—than law and regulation

The Internet revolution is less than 12% complete Number of users

Total bandwidth

Total amount of content

Number of devices

Number of applications



LESSON #8

Always look beyond the headlines


HEADLINE #1 - Bandwidth

THE HEADLINE Internet2 World Land Speed Record 2000 750 Mb/s2006 > 7 Gb/s


HEADLINE #1 - Bandwidth

THE HEADLINE Internet2 World Land Speed Record 2000 750 Mb/s2006 > 7 Gb/s

THE OTHER NEWSLast mile technologies15-20 Mb/s at $50/month from Verizon100 Mb/s for <$40/month in Hong Kong


HEADLINE #2 – Internet Video

THE HEADLINE Warner Brothers, Fox offer TV shows

(including “Desperate Housewives” on the Internet

Apple puts movies online


HEADLINE #2 – Internet Video

THE HEADLINE Warner Brothers, Fox offer TV shows

(including “Desperate Housewives” on the Internet

Apple puts movies online

THE OTHER NEWS

Amateur and illegal video everywhere!


VIDEO EVERYWHERE

Bit torrent 30% of ALL traffic in 2004

50% of all traffic in 2005

70% of all traffic in some countriesAmateur video

100 million downloads/day on YouTube

Star Trek fan videos

Gaming videos

Webcams everywhere


HEADLINE #3 - Grid

THE HEADLINE TeraGrid and EGEE demonstrate

<10 TeraOp/sec gridsIBM PetaOp/sec Clusters


HEADLINE #3 - Grid

THE HEADLINE TeraGrid and EGEE demonstrate

<10 TeraOp/sec gridsIBM PetaOp/sec Clusters

THE OTHER NEWS

Akamai PC-based grids even more powerful


PC-based Grids

SETI @Home Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing

>684,000 users

>1,080,000 machines IBM’s World Community Grid

>100,000 donors

>170,000 machines Fight AIDS @ Home Dozens of other projects

http://www.distributedcomputing.info/projects.html


Hacker attacks and mega spammers

Thousands of hackers making a living using zombies to send spam or run DDoS attacks

Take over 2000 PCs before breakfast


Phase One – Remote Log-in – One-to-One

user

Computer Computer


Phase One – E-mail – One-to-One

user

user

Computer Computer


Phase Two – Web – One-to-Many

user

user

user

user user

user

Computer Computer


Phase Three – Napster – Many-to-Many

user

user

user

useruser

user

Napster files

Napster files

Napster files


Phase Three – Grid – Many-to-Many

user

user

user

useruser

user

Grid server

Grid server

Grid server


Phase Three – SOA – Many-to-Many

user

user

user

useruser

user

SOA comp.

SOA comp.

SOA comp.


HEADLINE #4 - Collaboration

THE HEADLINE

High-end video-conferencing


HEADLINE #4 - Collaboration

THE HEADLINE

High-end video-conferencing

THE OTHER NEWSThe Gaming Revolution

Producing GDP equivalent to Belgium'sMegaconferenceMay 1 Business Week cover story


HEADLINE #5 - Entertainment

THE HEADLINE

News Corp. buys MySpace for $580 Million


HEADLINE #5 - Entertainment

THE HEADLINE

News Corp. buys MySpace for $580 Million

THE OTHER NEWSInternet isn’t just a medium, it’s a place20 million log on every day, <20 minutesMillions of Chinese teens chatting


Immersive Worlds + 2-D Web Evolve to a 3-D Net


Imagine the Internet with Highly Immersive, Visual Components and Social Interactions

3-D online spaces where your “avatar” can walk around in a real life setting

Build virtual buildings and machines, socialize and exchange ideas with others – even do business

…satisfying two key aspects of being human: our innately social and visual natures …


Early Virtual Worlds Business Applications

Commerce Collaboration and Events

Education and Training

Other Emerging Applications


HEADLINE #6 - Spam

THE HEADLINE

Spam is out of control


HEADLINE #6 - Spam

THE HEADLINE

Spam is out of control

THE OTHER NEWS

The vast majority of spam is blocked and we’re making progress


HEADLINE #7 - Authentication

THE HEADLINE

Microsoft Passport, Liberty Alliance


HEADLINE #7 - Authentication

THE HEADLINE

Microsoft Passport, Liberty Alliance

THE OTHER NEWS

Open source, open standards, federated identity management gets real

MIT’s Technology Review Top 10 technologies


HEADLINE #8 – Governments and the Net

THE HEADLINE

Internet GovernanceUnited Nations wants to control the Net


Who “manages” the Internet?

World Summit on the Information Society Governments realizing the power of Net

Media

E-business

Threat to monopoly phone company (VoIP)

Political speech So they want to regulate or control it “Internet governance”


HEADLINE #8 – Governments and the Net

THE HEADLINE

Internet GovernanceUnited Nations wants to control the Net

THE OTHER NEWS

Attempts to regulate the Internet popping up everywhere


Policy-Legal-Regulatory Ecosystem

ITU ConventionInt’l Telecom Regs

APEC-TEL

Commission of the European Community

USAFCCFCC

[WCIT][WCIT]PP2006PP2006

eSecTG

eSecTG

NSTACNSTACCanada

Australia

InfsoInfso

ParliamentParliament

Germany

NANCNANC

IndustryCanadaIndustryCanada

Many Others

CybercrimeConvention

Signatories &Justice Ministers

CITEL

DOSDOS

BNETZA-TBNETZA-T

Other multilateral and bilateral agreements

DOJDOJ DOCDOC

DHSDHS PSECPPSECP

WGSCWGSC WGANTSWGANTS

PCC.IPCC.I

NGN WGNGN WG NGN regNGN reg

ParliamentParliament

France

NetherlandsUKHomeOfficeHomeOfficeParliamentParliament

CIOTCIOTEZEZ

OFCOMOFCOM

JusticeJusticeARCEPARCEP

JusticeJustice

BfVBfV

JHAJHA

CouncilCouncil

ASIOASIO

ACAACA

DTIDTI

Tony Rutkowski, Verisign, ITU NGN workshop, March 2006


Ten P’s of Cyber-policy

PrivacyPiracyPornographyProtectionPricingPolicingPsychologyProcurementPayments Protectionism



LESSON #17

There is nothing more dangerous than an old model applied to a new medium


“Mail governance” (1950): Who made choices about postal service?

Hundreds of governments and the post offices they ran

Universal Postal Union

(customers)


“Phone governance” (1970): Who made choices about phone service?

Hundreds of governments

Hundreds of government-run telephone companies

International Telecommunication Union

(“subscribers”)


The flow of power

Governments

ITU

Phone companies

Individuals


Who makes choices about the Net?

Dozens of intergovernmental organizations, standards bodies, and international NGOs

Hun

dred

s of

gov

ernm

ents

and

natio

nal c

onso

rtia

Thou

sand

s of

IT v

endo

rs,

netw

ork

prov

ider

s, IS

Ps…

Milli

ons

of In

tern

et u

sers


The flow of power

Governments

International Organizations

Vendors, ISP, software vendors

Individuals


WHO’S PAYING ATTENTION?

European Commission’s Television without Frontiers directive

WIPO Webcasting treatyFCC’s regulation of VoIPWiretapping and data retention requirements ITU’s Next Generation Networks initiativeTelco’s growing monopoly/duopoly powerNet Neutrality debate



LESSON #21

In politics, you don’t beat something with nothing


Critical technology choices Authentication and directories Privacy-enhancing technologies (P3P) Open Document Format Digital Rights Management Filtering technologies to block spam, porn Voice over IP Wireless Internet standards Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) and

Grid computing Instant messaging IPv6 deployment Linking the phone network and the Internet Rich media standards (SIP, multicast, etc.) End-to-end vs. walled gardens


Tech answers to policy problems

Privacy P3P, etc.Piracy DRMPornography Filtering tech.Protection AuthenticationPricing Grid standardsPolicing Wireless Internet Psychology Phone-Net

mergerProcurement Voice over IPPayments Protectionism


What is ODF, the OpenDocument Format?

An XML-based specification describing the content and formatting of a document.

The open standard developed by a multi-vendor committee at OASIS and an ISO standard.

The standard that meets the common test for openness, including IBM’s.

The default document format in StarOffice, Open Office, KOffice, IBM Workplace client, and (in 2007) Lotus Notes.

The open standard adopted by many vendors.

The option that gives you the most choices for interoperability and future-proofing your information.


What is ODF not?

It is not dictated by a single vendor.

It is not required to be compatible with a single vendor’s commercial products.

It is not a forced commitment to either proprietary or open source software.

It is not a limitation of your choice of applications to create and process your information, now and in the future, by everyone who should have access to it.

It is not being adopted by Microsoft (yet).


Why ODF?

Provides greater choice, greater freedom of action, greater cost effectiveness, greater access to innovation and greater control over the use of your documents and the intellectual property contained therein.

Enables efficient interchange of information between various parts of an organization and between organizations.

Unleashes a tremendous potential for technological innovation to promote organizational productivity and creativity.

Promotes value, flowing out of traditional office suites to suppliers of new innovative organizational productivity and creativity tools.


ODF is an example of a bigger change

Application

Information

Old Style

Information is closely linked to the application that created it.

Control is with the software developer not the customer.

Application Application Application

Information

New Style

Information is represented using a real open standard not under the control of a single vendor, and multiple

applications can create and access it interchangeably.

Control is with the customer not the software provider.


We started to see this in the 1990s

Application

Information

Old Style



Browser Browser Browser

The Web

New Style





The trend will accelerate in the 2000s

Application

Information

Old Style



Office Suite Web apps New apps

Documents

New Style





Locus of Decision-making

No government All government

International

Regional

National

Company/Local

Individual

Internet standards

Online taxesCensorship

Telecom regulation

Spectrum policy

DNSIP addresses

Trade policy

Cyber-crime

Development aid

Spam

On-line privacy

Cyber-security

E-government



LESSON #25

Politicians look for one SOLUTION.Techies look for SOLUTIONS.




International

Regional

National

Company/Local

Individual

Spam

(Many different decisions in many different places)




International

Regional

National

Company/Local

Individual

Internet standards

Online taxesCensorship

Telecom regulation

Spectrum policy

DNSIP addresses

Trade policy

Cyber-crime

Development aid

Spam

On-line privacy

Cyber-security

E-government

Where “Internet governance” is needed


Where are we headed?


International

Regional

National

Company/Local

Individual

Global “Internet governance”

Scenario #1

Scenario #2

Scenario #3


Conclusions

The Internet Revolution is less than 12% complete

The Internet Revolution will be as disruptive as the printing press, but:

Much faster

Totally global

More unpredictableWhen in doubt, empower the user!

© 2002 IBM Corporation Amsterdam 25 Apr 2007 1 Next Generation Internet Policy: What will Shape the...

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