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Demographic Impacts on Demographic Impacts on Environmental SecurityEnvironmental Security
A Conceptual ViewA Conceptual View
44thth Int. Conference on Population Geographies Int. Conference on Population Geographies
12. July 2007, Hong Kong12. July 2007, Hong Kong
Frank SwiacznyFrank Swiaczny
frank.swiaczny@destatis.defrank.swiaczny@destatis.de
Federal Institute for Population ResearchFederal Institute for Population Research
Wiesbaden (Germany)Wiesbaden (Germany)
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Frank Swiaczny
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ContentContent
1. Key Demographic Trends• Global View • Small Scale Patterns - Example: Germany
2. Population and Environment
Linkages between Demographic Processes and the Environment
3. Environmental Security
4. Conceptual View of Population – Environment Interaction
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1.1. World Population Growth 1950-2050 (in 1,000)World Population Growth 1950-2050 (in 1,000)
0
2.000.000
4.000.000
6.000.000
8.000.000
10.000.000
12.000.000
14.000.000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Constant-fertility variant High variant Low variant Medium variant
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2006
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1.1. PopulationPopulation Density 1950-2050 (per km²) Density 1950-2050 (per km²)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Least developed countries Less developed regions, excluding least developed countries More developed regions World
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2006
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1.1. Percentage Urban 1950-2030 (in %)Percentage Urban 1950-2030 (in %)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Least developed countries Less developed regions, excluding least developed countries More developed regions World
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2006
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1.1. Population Density 1950-2050 (per km²), by RegionPopulation Density 1950-2050 (per km²), by Region
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2006
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Frank Swiaczny
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1.1. Percentage Urban 1950-2030 (in %), by RegionPercentage Urban 1950-2030 (in %), by Region
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2006
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1.1. Population Density 1950-2005 (Change in %), by CountryPopulation Density 1950-2005 (Change in %), by Country
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2006
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Frank Swiaczny
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1.1. Population Density 2005-2050 (Change in %), by CountryPopulation Density 2005-2050 (Change in %), by Country
Source: UN World Population Prospects 2006
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Frank Swiaczny
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1.1. Small Scale Spatial Patterns – The German ExampleSmall Scale Spatial Patterns – The German Example
Population per km²0...8484...107,3107,3...129,5129,5...160,4160,4...197197...280280...469469...776776...14001400...3950
Change 2000-2020 in %-29...-10-10...-5-5...55...1010...6666...66
Population Change 2000-2020 (in %) Population Density 2020 (per km²)
Source: BBR INKAR Pro
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2.2. Population and EnvironmentPopulation and Environment
Direct Drivers
Indirect Drivers
EcosystemServices
Human Well-being
Source: UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
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2.2. Population and EnvironmentPopulation and Environment
Source: UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
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2.2. Population and EnvironmentPopulation and Environment
Source: UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
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Environmentalsecurity can influence
the overall securityof a political system
Environmentalsecurity can influence
the overall securityof a political System
3.3. Environmental SecurityEnvironmental Security
Source: NATO CCMS Pilot Study Group „Use of Landscape Science for Environmental Assessment“
Human well-being__________basic supply
healthsocial security
education. . .
Human well-being__________basic supply
healthsocial security
education. . .
Ecosystemservices
__________provisioningregulating
culturalsupporting
Ecosystemservices
__________provisioningregulating
culturalsupporting
Landscapestate / integrity
__________
structuralfunctional
Landscapestate / integrity
__________
structuralfunctional
Land use__________
spatial (structural)intensity (functional )
Land use__________
spatial (structural)intensity (functional )
Pressu
reS
tate
Imp
act
D
rive
rs
Response
Decisionprocess
__________formation of opinions
governanceparticipation
Decisionprocess
__________formation of opinions
governanceparticipation
Drivers__________
socioeconomicsociopoliticaldemographictechnological
cultural/religious
Drivers__________
socioeconomicsociopoliticaldemographictechnological
cultural/religious
Human well-being__________basic supply
healthsocial security
education. . .
Human well-being__________basic supply
healthsocial security
education. . .
Ecosystemservices
__________provisioningregulating
culturalsupporting
Ecosystemservices
__________provisioningregulating
culturalsupporting
Landscapestate / integrity
__________
structuralfunctional
Landscapestate / integrity
__________
structuralfunctional
Land use__________
spatial (structural)intensity (functional )
Land use__________
spatial (structural)intensity (functional )
Contextualconstraints
__________social change
politicalchangetechnologicalchange
culturalchange
Contextualconstraints
__________social change
politicalchangetechnologicalchange
culturalchange
Contextualconstraints
__________external
environmentalchanges
Contextualconstraints
__________external
environmentalchanges
Pressu
reS
tate
Imp
act
D
rive
rs
Response
Decisionprocess
__________formation of opinions
governanceparticipation
Decisionprocess
__________formation of opinions
governanceparticipation
Drivers__________
socioeconomicsociopoliticaldemographictechnological
cultural/religious
Drivers__________
socioeconomicsociopoliticaldemographictechnological
cultural/religious
Environmentalsecurity is related tothe risks of loosingecosystem services
Environmentalsecurity is related tothe risks of loosingecosystem services
Demographicchange as afocal item of case studies
Demographicchange as afocal item of case studies
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4.4. Conceptual View of Population – Environment InteractionConceptual View of Population – Environment Interaction
DemographicProcesses
DevelopmentStructure
Spatial Distribution
Economicand SocialWell Being
Public Health
Ecosystem ServicesProvisions
RegulationsSupport
Cultural/Information
LandscapeProcesses
DevelopmentLand Use Intensity
Structure + Functions
Individual Decisions - Human Demandof Ecosystem Services
ResourceUse
Provision/Usage ofEcosystem Services
Resource Change
Contextual Constraints
e.g. Economy, Law, Technology, Institutional Settings, Environmental Characteristics, Medical Care Structure
Visions, Guiding Principles, Policy Objectives
e.g. Public Health, Security, Quality of Life, Landscape Quality Objectives, Resilience, Sustainability
Socio-EconomicSubsystem
EcologicalEnvironmental
Subsystem
Modifying influenes/relationshipsSystem regulation/demand-supplySource: Swiaczny 2007
??
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Micro
4.4. Conceptual View of Population – Environment InteractionConceptual View of Population – Environment Interaction
Demographic Change Landscape Change
Human Action
Individual Needs and Decisions
Macro
Source: Swiaczny 2007
Micro-Macro Model
Modified after Coleman
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4.4. Conceptual View of Population – Environment InteractionConceptual View of Population – Environment Interaction
UrbanizationSub-urbanization
Depopulation
Ageing
Population t+1 = Populationt + Birth – Death + In-migration – Out-migration
Population Dynamics
Fert
ilit
y D
eclin
e
Lif
e E
xp
. G
row
th
Sex a
nd
Ag
e
Sele
cti
ve
Mig
rati
on
Society
Economy
Ecology?
Multivaria
te M
odels to
Estimate
Individuals
“Risk” fo
r Migra
tion
Task:SelectingAppropriateIndicators
Macro Level Processes
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For further information please contact For further information please contact frank.swiaczny@destatis.de
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