Www.bib-demographie.de Demographic Impacts on Environmental Security A Conceptual View 4 th Int....

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Demographic Impacts on Demographic Impacts on Environmental SecurityEnvironmental Security

A Conceptual ViewA Conceptual View

44thth Int. Conference on Population Geographies Int. Conference on Population Geographies

12. July 2007, Hong Kong12. July 2007, Hong Kong

Frank SwiacznyFrank Swiaczny

[email protected]@destatis.de

Federal Institute for Population ResearchFederal Institute for Population Research

Wiesbaden (Germany)Wiesbaden (Germany)

© BiB 2007

Frank Swiaczny

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ContentContent

1. Key Demographic Trends• Global View • Small Scale Patterns - Example: Germany

2. Population and Environment

Linkages between Demographic Processes and the Environment

3. Environmental Security

4. Conceptual View of Population – Environment Interaction

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Frank Swiaczny

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1.1. World Population Growth 1950-2050 (in 1,000)World Population Growth 1950-2050 (in 1,000)

0

2.000.000

4.000.000

6.000.000

8.000.000

10.000.000

12.000.000

14.000.000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Constant-fertility variant High variant Low variant Medium variant

Source: UN World Population Prospects 2006

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Frank Swiaczny

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1.1. PopulationPopulation Density 1950-2050 (per km²) Density 1950-2050 (per km²)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Least developed countries Less developed regions, excluding least developed countries More developed regions World


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Frank Swiaczny

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1.1. Percentage Urban 1950-2030 (in %)Percentage Urban 1950-2030 (in %)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Least developed countries Less developed regions, excluding least developed countries More developed regions World


© BiB 2007

Frank Swiaczny

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1.1. Population Density 1950-2050 (per km²), by RegionPopulation Density 1950-2050 (per km²), by Region

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania


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Frank Swiaczny

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1.1. Percentage Urban 1950-2030 (in %), by RegionPercentage Urban 1950-2030 (in %), by Region

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania


© BiB 2007

Frank Swiaczny

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1.1. Population Density 1950-2005 (Change in %), by CountryPopulation Density 1950-2005 (Change in %), by Country


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Frank Swiaczny

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1.1. Population Density 2005-2050 (Change in %), by CountryPopulation Density 2005-2050 (Change in %), by Country


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Frank Swiaczny

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1.1. Small Scale Spatial Patterns – The German ExampleSmall Scale Spatial Patterns – The German Example

Population per km²0...8484...107,3107,3...129,5129,5...160,4160,4...197197...280280...469469...776776...14001400...3950

Change 2000-2020 in %-29...-10-10...-5-5...55...1010...6666...66

Population Change 2000-2020 (in %) Population Density 2020 (per km²)

Source: BBR INKAR Pro

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Frank Swiaczny

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2.2. Population and EnvironmentPopulation and Environment

Direct Drivers

Indirect Drivers

EcosystemServices

Human Well-being

Source: UN Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

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Frank Swiaczny

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Frank Swiaczny

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Environmentalsecurity can influence

the overall securityof a political system

Environmentalsecurity can influence

the overall securityof a political System

3.3. Environmental SecurityEnvironmental Security

Source: NATO CCMS Pilot Study Group „Use of Landscape Science for Environmental Assessment“

Human well-being__________basic supply

healthsocial security

education. . .



education. . .

Ecosystemservices

__________provisioningregulating

culturalsupporting

Ecosystemservices


culturalsupporting

Landscapestate / integrity

__________

structuralfunctional


__________


Land use__________

spatial (structural)intensity (functional )

Land use__________


Pressu

reS

tate

Imp

act

D

rive

rs

Response

Decisionprocess

__________formation of opinions

governanceparticipation

Decisionprocess



Drivers__________

socioeconomicsociopoliticaldemographictechnological

cultural/religious

Drivers__________


cultural/religious



education. . .



education. . .

Ecosystemservices


culturalsupporting

Ecosystemservices


culturalsupporting


__________



__________


Land use__________


Land use__________


Contextualconstraints

__________social change

politicalchangetechnologicalchange

culturalchange


__________social change

politicalchangetechnologicalchange

culturalchange


__________external

environmentalchanges


__________external

environmentalchanges

Pressu

reS

tate

Imp

act

D

rive

rs

Response

Decisionprocess



Decisionprocess



Drivers__________


cultural/religious

Drivers__________


cultural/religious

Environmentalsecurity is related tothe risks of loosingecosystem services

Environmentalsecurity is related tothe risks of loosingecosystem services

Demographicchange as afocal item of case studies

Demographicchange as afocal item of case studies

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4.4. Conceptual View of Population – Environment InteractionConceptual View of Population – Environment Interaction

DemographicProcesses

DevelopmentStructure

Spatial Distribution

Economicand SocialWell Being

Public Health

Ecosystem ServicesProvisions

RegulationsSupport

Cultural/Information

LandscapeProcesses

DevelopmentLand Use Intensity

Structure + Functions

Individual Decisions - Human Demandof Ecosystem Services

ResourceUse

Provision/Usage ofEcosystem Services

Resource Change

Contextual Constraints

e.g. Economy, Law, Technology, Institutional Settings, Environmental Characteristics, Medical Care Structure

Visions, Guiding Principles, Policy Objectives

e.g. Public Health, Security, Quality of Life, Landscape Quality Objectives, Resilience, Sustainability

Socio-EconomicSubsystem

EcologicalEnvironmental

Subsystem

Modifying influenes/relationshipsSystem regulation/demand-supplySource: Swiaczny 2007

??

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Micro


Demographic Change Landscape Change

Human Action

Individual Needs and Decisions

Macro

Source: Swiaczny 2007

Micro-Macro Model

Modified after Coleman

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UrbanizationSub-urbanization

Depopulation

Ageing

Population t+1 = Populationt + Birth – Death + In-migration – Out-migration

Population Dynamics

Fert

ilit

y D

eclin

e

Lif

e E

xp

. G

row

th

Sex a

nd

Ag

e

Sele

cti

ve

Mig

rati

on

Society

Economy

Ecology?

Multivaria

te M

odels to

Estimate

Individuals

“Risk” fo

r Migra

tion

Task:SelectingAppropriateIndicators

Macro Level Processes

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Frank Swiaczny

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