WoE Joint Transport Board MetroWest Phase 1

Preliminary Business Case

Colin Medus

12 September 2014

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Project Objectives

Primary Objectives •support economic growth, through enhancing transport links to major employment centres across the West of England

•deliver a more resilient transport offer, with more attractive & reliable journey times

•improve accessibility to the rail network with new and re-opened rail stations

•make a positive contribution to improving quality of life

Supporting Objectives •contribute to reducing traffic congestion

•contribute to enhancing the capacity of the local rail network

•contribute to reducing the overall environmental impact of the transport network.

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Train Service Options

Preliminary Business Case • Strong case for intervention, good value for money,

sound commercial footing, financially affordable and deliverable by 2019.

• Two train service options both having the same infrastructure requirements.

• Half hourly service pattern (St.Andrews Road and Severn Beach hourly to fit with MW Phase 2). Symmetrical timetable feasible, giving close to a

‘clock face’ pattern.

• BCR 2.28 to 5.99 and total capital cost including development costs = £58.2m.

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Preliminary Business Case Capital Costs

£58.2m capital cost comprises:

• £2.8m feasibility costs

• £6.1m preparation costs

• £49.3m construction costs

These figures include 30% contingency and allowance for

future inflation up to and during construction

Operational Costs

• Train service subsidy during first 3 years £1.141m to

£1.765m pa, based on current assumptions – potential to reduce. DfT to pick up subsidy there after until breakeven Point – subject to agreement

• Also some minor operating costs – bus services, car

parks etc

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Preliminary Business Case

Economic Case We have tested 8 scenarios:

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Scenario Train

Service

Option

Timetable –

Level of

Service

Number of

Train Sets

Scenario 1 5B Baseline 6 train sets

Scenario 2 5B Baseline 7 train sets

Scenario 3 6B Baseline 6 train sets

Scenario 4 6B Baseline 7 train sets

Scenario 5 5B Enhanced 6 train sets

Scenario 6 5B Enhanced 7 train sets

Scenario 7 6B Enhanced 6 train sets

Scenario 8 6B Enhanced 7 train sets

Preliminary Business Case • Assessed operation based on both 6 train sets and 7

train sets. More work detailed modelling of train paths needed to confirm number of train sets and formations.

• GRIP2 completed comprising comprehensive deliverables, confirming the engineering feasibility of the project.

• Early stages of environmental assessment will feed into a full Environmental Impact Assessment

• Conclusion project feasibility is sound and project should proceed to the next stage of development – Outline Business Case.

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Preliminary Business Case Funding – Current Position

Capital Funding - of the £58.2m capital cost, the councils

collectively need to fund £4.8m. The remaining £53.4m is

to be funded from the DfT Devolved allocation £44.9m and

Local Growth Fund £8.5m.

To date the councils have collectively identified £3.5m of

the £4.8m, leaving up to £1.3m to find, pending more

detailed technical work through Outline Business Case.

Revenue Funding Current Position – train service subsidy

during first 3 years £1.141m to £1.765m pa, from April

2019. The Councils now need build this into their financial

planning so that each council can be in a position to confirm

its share of revenue funding upon completion of the

Outline Business Case – Oct 2015.

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Business Case Stages The Business Case is in 3 stages

Preliminary Business Case – Sept 2014

Outline Business Case – Oct 2015

Full Business Case – Oct 2017

• Preliminary Business Case is needed for allocation of resources for the development of the project

• Outline Business Case is undertaken to support statutory processes including the Development Consent Order

• The Full Business Case follows procurement of construction works and operational arrangements including the train service and confirmation of powers to build and operate.

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Next Business Case - Outline • GRIP 3 & 4 to be undertaken with Network Rail, which

essentially in engineering terms is Outline design.

• Early stages of technical evidence base and public consultation for the Development Consent Order. NB – DCO application to be submitted 4 months after completion of Outline Business Case.

• More detailed environmental assessment, inc flood risk, ecology, noise, heritage etc for EIA.

• More detailed technical work on train pathing / train sets, operational costs and demand modelling and revenues.

• Further progress with GW franchise / procurement of train service (priced option) / DfT Rail on operational arrangements. Including selection of train service option.

GRIP 3 – Option Selection

GRIP 4 – Single Option Development

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GRIP 1-2 Findings

Summary of Engineering Works Needed Rebuild the Portishead to Pill Line Closure of historic crossings New station at Portishead Reopen former station at Pill Double track works at Pill and Ashton Gate Investigate improvement of highway access to Pill tunnel Environmental mitigation measures Enhancement to Parson Street Junction Re-signalling the entire line between Temple Meads and Portishead Bathampton Turnback Additional signalling at Avonmouth station Partial reinstatement of Down Relief Line to assist recessing / regulation of freight trains GRIP 1-2 includes substantial deliverables which highlight the complexity of the project

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Infrastructure Needed in Pill

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Parson Street Junction and Partial Reinstatement of the Down Relief Line

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Bathampton Turnback

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Initial Ground

Investigation

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Ground Investigation bore sample

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Portishead Station

Options Appraisal undertaken early 2014 involved detailed

assessment of 6 sites, under 3 headings:

• How each site fits with planning policy,

• Environmental impact of each site,

• Deliverability of each site,

Site options 2A, 2B & 2C identified as

potentially viable

Site options 1A, 1B and 3 identified as not viable

We published the detailed assessment on our website together with the consultation material, it can be down loaded from www.travelwest.info/mw/portishead

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Portishead Station - Regulator

Office of Rail Regulation (ORR)

Following earlier engagement with the ORR in 2013, the ORR have recently updated

their position on a level crossing at Quays Avenue.

The ORR position is they will consider whether

there are exceptional circumstances for a level

crossing subject to the project team providing

further information in respect of 10 criteria.

The project team will put together the required

information over the next two months

and will then submit to ORR for consideration.

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Powers to Build and Operate

MW Phase 1 requires a Development Consent Order (DCO), because it’s a nationally significant infrastructure project DCO entails a major planning application and is a 6 stage process that takes up to 3 years DCO work stream will run in parallel with other major work stream such as GRIP and the Business Case, which also require 3 years to complete DCO process includes a requirement for engagement and consultation DCO process requires an Environmental Impact Assessment and Environmental Statement

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Stakeholder Engagement

Public Consultation in June & July 2014

was specifically about the location of

Portishead rail station.

Response to consultation was very positive

– 366 people attended the two consultation

exhibition events and over 400 responses

submitted to us.

More Stateholder Engagement Needed

Wider public consultation will be needed to

meet the statutory requirements of the

Development Consent Order process.

DCO Process & Planning

Inspectorate

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Taking Forward MW Phase 1

Process of building the ‘Case’ for Phase 1, working through technical / planning processes and rail industry requirements for earliest possible delivery

Phase 1 Programme comprises of 4 stages:

Project Stage Stage Description Indicative Timescales

Stage 1 Preliminary Business Case

Feasibility (inc GRIP 1-2) Summer 2013 to Summer 2014

Stage 2 Outline Business Case

Option Development & Project Case (inc GRIP 3 & 4)

Autumn 2014 to Autumn 2015

Stage 3 Full Business Case

Planning Powers and Procurement (including GRIP 5)

Winter 2015/16 to Autumn 2017

Stage 4 Delivery

Construction & Opening (inc GRIP 6-8)

Autumn 2017 to Spring 2019

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Delivering MetroWest Phase 1

The Preliminary Business Case demonstrates:

• there are no fundament impediments for the delivery of MetroWest Phase 1

• the project has a strong case for intervention, provides good value for money, has a sound commercial footing, is financially affordable and deliverable by 2019

• the project feasibility is sound and the project should proceed to the next stage of development – Outline Business Case

The Outline Business Case will entail:

• More detailed engineering design and operational figuration via GRIP 3 & 4

• Developing the technical evidence base for considerable processes including the Development Consent Order pre-application stage

• Continued joint working with the rail industry drawing on collective skills, knowledge & resources, to deliver this important project

MetroWest Governance WoE Strategic Leaders Board

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WoE Joint Transport Board Decision Timescales

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WoE Joint Transport Board Decisions on Preliminary Business Case

Report Recommendations:

1) To endorse the Preliminary Business Case,

2) To endorse progressing to the Outline Business Case (Programme Entry),

3) To recommend continued work with First Great Western on the operational business case,

4) To bring back to Joint Transport Board the Outline Business Case in late 2015.

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