When the inevitable happens—rising, not falling crime rates—What to do?

DANIEL S. NAGIN

CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY

STOCKHOLM CRIMINOLOGY SYMPOSIUM

JUNE 10, 2014

Three Response from Outside the Criminal Justice System

1. Early childhood enrichment programs2. Addressing the drug-crime nexus3. Addressing the mental illness-crime nexus

“It is better to prevent crimes than punish them”--Cesare Beccaria 1764

Two Fallacies of the ‘60s, ‘70s, and ’80s

PRISONS ARE AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO PREVENT CRIME

Two Fallacies of the ‘60s, ‘70s, and ’80s

PRISONS ARE AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO PREVENT CRIME POLICE ARE IMPOTENT TO PREVENT CRIME

Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important

Conclusions1. American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust)

method of crime control

Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important

Conclusions1. American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust)

method of crime control◦ Age is nature’s best cure for crime

Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important

Conclusions1. American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust)

method of crime control◦ Age is nature’s best cure for crime◦ Extreme skew in offending rates

Age and Crime: Glueck DataEggleston, Laub and Sampson (2004)

Age and Crime: London DataFarrington, Piquero, and Jennings (2013)

High rate offenders are a small fraction of total Offenders

oChronic trajectory groups are a small fraction of the totaloWolfgang: 6% of cohort accounted for 50% of arrestsoFarrington: 8% of sample accounted for 53% of convictionsoPathways to Desistance: 2%-5% of sample accounted for 50% of self-reported offending

Frequency of Income Generating Offending in Pathway’s Study

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8

De

nsity

0 50 100 150 200Frequency of Income-Generating Offending

200+ offenses fromAge 15 to 22

Frequency of Income Generating Offending in Pathway’s Study

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8

De

nsity

0 50 100 150 200Frequency of Income-Generating Offending

200+ offenses fromAge 15 to 22

Can they be identifiedbefore the fact?

Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important

Conclusions1. American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust) method

of crime control

2. There is no evidence of a specific deterrent effect

Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important

ConclusionsThere is no evidence of a specific deterrent effect

“…compared to non-custodial sanctions, incarceration has a null or mildly criminogenic impact on future criminal involvement. We caution that this assessment is not sufficiently firm to guide policy, with the exception that it calls into question wild claims that imprisonment has strong specific deterrent effects.”

Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important

Conclusions1. American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust) method

of crime control

2. There is no evidence of a specific deterrent effect

3. The Incremental deterrent effect of long sentences is small

Certainty of Punishment & Deterrence

CommitCrime

ApprehensionP(A)

ConvictionP(C|A)

ImprisonmentP(I|A &C)

𝐶𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑦=𝑃 ( 𝐴 )𝑃 (𝐶|𝐴 )𝑃 ( 𝐼∨𝐴∧𝐶 )

Risk of Apprehension & Deterrence

CommitCrime

ApprehensionP(A)

Good evidenceof a deterrent effect

Risk of Conviction & Deterrence

CommitCrime

ApprehensionP(A)

No evidence on whether there is a deterrent effect

ConvictionP(C|A)

Risk of Imprisonment & Deterrence

CommitCrime

ApprehensionP(A)

Evidence does not support a deterrent effect

ConvictionP(C|A)

ImprisonmentP(I|A &C)

Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important

Conclusions1. American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust) method

of crime control

2. There is no evidence of a specific deterrent effect

3. The Incremental deterrent effect of long sentences is small

4. The certainty of apprehension, not the severity of the ensuing consequences, is the most effective deterrent

Commentary on Imprisonment in America

“Our resources are misspent, our punishments too severe, our sentences too long.” Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy, 2003

Commentary on Imprisonment in America

“Our resources are misspent, our punishments too severe, our sentences too long.” Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy, 2003

“Too many Americans go to too many prisons for far too long and for no good law enforcement reason.”Attorney General Eric Holder, 2013

How and How Not to Respond?HOW NOT TO RESPOND

Increasing sentence lengths Sending more drug offenders to prison

How and How Not to Respond?HOW NOT TO RESPOND

Increasing sentence lengths Sending more drug offenders to prison

HOW TO RESPOND Strategic mobilization of police to deter crime in the first place so that there is nobody to arrest and punish

Police as Apprehension Agents

Police as Sentinels