When the inevitable happens— rising, not falling crime rates—What to do? DANIEL S. NAGIN...
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When the inevitable happens —rising, not falling crime rates—What to do? DANIEL S. NAGIN CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY STOCKHOLM CRIMINOLOGY SYMPOSIUM JUNE 10, 2014
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Transcript of When the inevitable happens— rising, not falling crime rates—What to do? DANIEL S. NAGIN...
When the inevitable happens—rising, not falling crime rates—What to do?
DANIEL S. NAGIN
CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY
STOCKHOLM CRIMINOLOGY SYMPOSIUM
JUNE 10, 2014
Three Response from Outside the Criminal Justice System
1. Early childhood enrichment programs2. Addressing the drug-crime nexus3. Addressing the mental illness-crime nexus
“It is better to prevent crimes than punish them”--Cesare Beccaria 1764
Two Fallacies of the ‘60s, ‘70s, and ’80s
PRISONS ARE AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO PREVENT CRIME
Two Fallacies of the ‘60s, ‘70s, and ’80s
PRISONS ARE AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO PREVENT CRIME POLICE ARE IMPOTENT TO PREVENT CRIME
Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important
Conclusions1. American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust)
method of crime control
Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important
Conclusions1. American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust)
method of crime control◦ Age is nature’s best cure for crime
Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important
Conclusions1. American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust)
method of crime control◦ Age is nature’s best cure for crime◦ Extreme skew in offending rates
Age and Crime: Glueck DataEggleston, Laub and Sampson (2004)
Age and Crime: London DataFarrington, Piquero, and Jennings (2013)
High rate offenders are a small fraction of total Offenders
oChronic trajectory groups are a small fraction of the totaloWolfgang: 6% of cohort accounted for 50% of arrestsoFarrington: 8% of sample accounted for 53% of convictionsoPathways to Desistance: 2%-5% of sample accounted for 50% of self-reported offending
Frequency of Income Generating Offending in Pathway’s Study
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8
De
nsity
0 50 100 150 200Frequency of Income-Generating Offending
200+ offenses fromAge 15 to 22
Frequency of Income Generating Offending in Pathway’s Study
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8
De
nsity
0 50 100 150 200Frequency of Income-Generating Offending
200+ offenses fromAge 15 to 22
Can they be identifiedbefore the fact?
Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important
Conclusions1. American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust) method
of crime control
2. There is no evidence of a specific deterrent effect
Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important
ConclusionsThere is no evidence of a specific deterrent effect
“…compared to non-custodial sanctions, incarceration has a null or mildly criminogenic impact on future criminal involvement. We caution that this assessment is not sufficiently firm to guide policy, with the exception that it calls into question wild claims that imprisonment has strong specific deterrent effects.”
Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important
Conclusions1. American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust) method
of crime control
2. There is no evidence of a specific deterrent effect
3. The Incremental deterrent effect of long sentences is small
Certainty of Punishment & Deterrence
CommitCrime
ApprehensionP(A)
ConvictionP(C|A)
ImprisonmentP(I|A &C)
𝐶𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑦=𝑃 ( 𝐴 )𝑃 (𝐶|𝐴 )𝑃 ( 𝐼∨𝐴∧𝐶 )
Risk of Apprehension & Deterrence
CommitCrime
ApprehensionP(A)
Good evidenceof a deterrent effect
Risk of Conviction & Deterrence
CommitCrime
ApprehensionP(A)
No evidence on whether there is a deterrent effect
ConvictionP(C|A)
Risk of Imprisonment & Deterrence
CommitCrime
ApprehensionP(A)
Evidence does not support a deterrent effect
ConvictionP(C|A)
ImprisonmentP(I|A &C)
Crime Prevention and Imprisonment: Four Important
Conclusions1. American style incapacitation is an inefficient (and unjust) method
of crime control
2. There is no evidence of a specific deterrent effect
3. The Incremental deterrent effect of long sentences is small
4. The certainty of apprehension, not the severity of the ensuing consequences, is the most effective deterrent
Commentary on Imprisonment in America
“Our resources are misspent, our punishments too severe, our sentences too long.” Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy, 2003
Commentary on Imprisonment in America
“Our resources are misspent, our punishments too severe, our sentences too long.” Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy, 2003
“Too many Americans go to too many prisons for far too long and for no good law enforcement reason.”Attorney General Eric Holder, 2013
How and How Not to Respond?HOW NOT TO RESPOND
Increasing sentence lengths Sending more drug offenders to prison
How and How Not to Respond?HOW NOT TO RESPOND
Increasing sentence lengths Sending more drug offenders to prison
HOW TO RESPOND Strategic mobilization of police to deter crime in the first place so that there is nobody to arrest and punish
Police as Apprehension Agents
Police as Sentinels
