Post on 13-Jul-2020
Website Slide Deck North Dakota Pipeline Authority
Justin J. Kringstad April 1, 2014
Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions
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Crude Oil
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Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions
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Crude Oil
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ND Drilling Stats
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Forecasting Williston Basin Oil Production, BOPD
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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Crude Oil
Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions
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Challenges* 1) Moving oil out of the
Williston Basin 2) Moving oil within the
Williston Basin
*Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines
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North Dakota Crude Oil Pipelines
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210,000 BOPD
68,000 BOPD
160,000 BOPD
145,000 BOPD
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North Dakota Crude Oil Pipelines
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Oil Loading Rail Facilities
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January 2014
Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes
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Crude Oil Gathering
Challenges* 1) Moving oil out of the
Williston Basin 2) Moving oil within the
Williston Basin
*Modified from Bridger and Belle Fourche Pipelines
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North Dakota Crude Oil Pipelines
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Red – Trucked Blue – Pipeline
Sep 2012 Estimates – Some data incomplete or unavailable
All ND Production
ND Crude Oil Gathering
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Red – Trucked Blue – Pipeline
Sep 2013 Estimates Some data incomplete or unavailable
All ND Production
ND Oil Gathering
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Red – Trucked Blue – Pipeline
Sep 2013 Estimates Some data incomplete or unavailable
All ND Production
ND Oil Gathering
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41% 59% 20%
80%
31% 69%
48% 52%
54% 46%
42% 58%
9%
91%
41% 59%
22%
78%
100%
100%
36% 64%
100%
14%
86%
3%
97%
~250 Additional Truckloads Per Day
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Year-Over-Year Oil Gathering Changes*
*Best available estimate. Some data incomplete or missing
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Estimated YOY Daily Truckload Change
Sep 2012 to Sep 2013 Assumes - 225 bbls/truck
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Estimated YOY Oil Gathering Change
Sep 2012 to Sep 2013
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Closer Look at Gathering Type
Gathering (After CTB) Green = Pipeline Red = Truck Yellow = Both Blue = Confidential Sep 2013 Data
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Closer Look at Gathering Type
Gathering (After CTB) Green = Pipeline Red = Truck Yellow = Both Blue = Confidential Sep 2013 Data
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Closer Look at Gathering Type
Gathering (After CTB) Green = Pipeline Red = Truck Yellow = Both Blue = Confidential Sep 2013 Data
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Closer Look at Gathering Type
Gathering (After CTB) Green = Pipeline Red = Truck Yellow = Both Blue = Confidential Sep 2013 Data
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Closer Look at Gathering Type
Gathering (After CTB) Green = Pipeline Red = Truck Yellow = Both Blue = Confidential Sep 2013 Data
Crude Oil
Understanding production potential
Understanding current transportation dynamics and potential transportation constraints
Understanding current and future market conditions
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US Refining Infrastructure
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$106.38
$95.99
$84.53 $78.98
$100.76
EIA Dec 2013 Refinery Acquisition Cost
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Major Pipelines and Refining Centers
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$106.38
$95.99
$84.53
$78.98
$100.76
EIA Dec 2013 Refinery Acquisition Cost
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Major Rail Lines and Refineries
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$106.38
$95.99
$84.53 $78.98
$100.76
EIA Dec 2013 Refinery Acquisition Cost
Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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Simple Terms Blue – Lack of pipelines Orange – Challenges on existing infrastructure
GREEN – % of gas captured and sold Blue – % flared from zero sales wells Orange – % flared from wells with at least one mcf sold.
January 2014 Data – Non-Confidential Wells Statewide
Solving the Flaring Challenge
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*Hess Tioga Gas Plant shut-in for 140 MMCFD expansion starting in November
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Capturing the 18% Faster Well Connections
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*Weather Related & Gas
Plant Shutdown
*
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ND Gas Gathering Statistics
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Weather Related & Gas
Plant Shutdown
North Dakota Natural Gas Production Forecast
Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be considered accurate for any near or long term planning.
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ND Gas Transmission and Processing
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Raw Natural Gas
(1500+ BTU) Processing Plant
Consumer Quality Dry Natural Gas
Methane
NGL’S (8-12 gpm)
Y-Grade or Fractionated
Ethane
41.64%
Propane
28.33%
Butane
16.53%
Natural Gasoline
13.51%
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*Using NGL breakdown from the July 2012 BENTEK Natural Gas Study
Rich Natural Gas
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ND Gas Plant NGL Production
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North Dakota NGL Potential
Assumptions
• No Flaring
• 8 Gal/MCF
• All liquids extracted
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Case 1: ND NGL Potential*
*Using NGL breakdown from the July 2012 BENTEK Natural Gas Study
41.64%
28.33%
6.98% 9.55%
13.51%
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Moving Future NGL Volumes
Transportation Options
• Trucking Regionally
• Rail Transportation
• Vantage Pipeline (Ethane)
• ONEOK Bakken Pipeline (Y-Grade)
• Alliance Pipeline (Rich Gas)
• New Pipeline Infrastructure??
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NGL Pipeline Transportation
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Justin J. Kringstad, Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority
600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405 Bismarck, ND 58505-0840
Phone: (701)220-6227
Fax: (701)328-2820 E-mail: jjkringstad@ndpipelines.com
Websites:
www.pipeline.nd.gov www.northdakotapipelines.com
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Contact Information
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