Weather and Climate Services for Pinga Oya

Lareef Zubair, Zeenas Yahiya, Sewwandhdhi Chandrasekera, Prabodha Agalawatte, Dumindu

Herath, Michael BellFoundation for Environment, Climate and

Technology, Digana and International Research Institute for Climate and

Society,

Baseline Climatologies• 284 rainfall stations for 1960-2000 was used to create a

gridded dataset.

Climatologies

RainfallMean Std. Dev.

Temperature

Solar Radiation

WindspeedNortherlyEasterly

Cyclone risk

Flood riskWestern slopesEastern Slopes

Malaria

Dengue

Landslide Risk

RainfallMean Std. Dev.

Temperature

Solar Radiation

Wind speedNortherlyEasterly

Cyclone risk

Flood riskWestern slopesEastern slopes

Landslide Risk

Malaria

Dengue

Rice

Fine-scale Analysis• Top Row

– Population– Vulnerability– Flood Incidence – Flood Hazard

• Middle Row– Drought Incidence – Drought Hazard– Landslide Incidence – Landslide Hazard

• Bottom Row– Cyclone Incidence – Cyclone Hazard– Multi-hazard Analysis

.

5

Wind and Rainfall Climatology over Southern Asia

• Reversal in Wind Direction

Over SL– NE – Nov-Mar– W – May to

Sep• Migration of rain

bandsOver SL– Yala rains

(MJJ)– Maha rains

(OND)

W-E Cross-Section

0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 00

5 0 0

1 0 0 0

1 5 0 0

2 0 0 02000

1500

500

108

Distance from East to West (km)

Sita Eliya

Altitu

de (

m a

.s.l.

)

1000

0

0 226

Potuvil

Orographic Rainfall Model

• Orography and Lorentizian - >

• Observations ->

• Model ->

Rainfall in Lanka (July and Jan)

Our Mountains

Topography – Pinga Oya and Northern Hill Country

Monthly Rainfall Climatology around Kandy

Top – Peradeniya (1944 – 1985)Middle – Katugastota (1944 – 1985)Bottom – Rajawella ( 1944-1983)

Below – Temperature Climatology - Katugastota

Kandy Rainfall and Temperature 1866-1992

Top – Rainfall

Bottom - Temperature

Quality Control of Data

y = -0.0005x + 25.67

23.5

24

24.5

25

25.5

26

1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Year

Tem

pera

ture

(C)

Kandy-Actual Kandy-Reference Linear (Kandy-Actual)

y = 0.0055x + 13.665

23.5

24

24.5

25

25.5

26

1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990

Year

Tem

pera

ture

(C)

Kandy-Observed Kandy-Adjusted Linear (Kandy-Adjusted)

Monitoring

Satellite Rainfall Monitoring for Akurana DSD

Top – Left: Dekadal RainfallTop- Right: Comparsion with Average – Blue Excess, Brown Deficit

Bottom- Left: - Rainfall Comparison last 6 years

Bottom Right – Cumulative Deficit over last 365 days

Downloaded: Feb 19, 2013

Intra-seasonal PredictionsPaul Roundy, SUNY Albany

Rainfall at Katugastota and Katugastota

Land Surface Prediction: Accurate land model prediction based on water and energy balance.Input - Output = Storage ChangeP + Gin –(Q + ET + Gout) = ΔSRn - G = Le + H

Land Surface Modeling, slide courtesy NASA GSFC

Overland Flow

Subsurface Flow

Total Flow

ET and Precip

Infiltration

Source Area

Soil

Canopy

rsoil

rararcrdrsurf

rplant

EHea

e*(Ts)MPr

ABL

Catchment Model (Koster et al., 2000): Models in catchment space rather than on grids.Uses Topmodel concepts to model groundwater

Discharge Conditioned on Indian Ocean

Drought Tendency in the Last 50 years in North, East, South and West

Annual Rainfall and Regionalization

Dengue In Kandy

Mahaweli River Basin Projects January 2000 onwards

http://iri.columbia.edu/~mahaweli lareef@iri.columbia.edu http://www.climate.lk

Pollutant Transport