Post on 12-Sep-2018
Housing market and household debt in Sweden
Norges Bank, 21 November 2017
Peter van SantenSenior Economist
Financial Stability Department
DisclaimerThe views expressed are my own and do not necessarily represent the
views of the Executive Board of Sveriges Riksbank.
Housing prices in Stockholm and Oslo, 1980-2015Index, 1985 = 100
Sources: Norges Bank, Valueguard and the Riksbank
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Stockholm housesStockholm apartmentsOslo
Housing prices in Sweden and Norway
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SwedenNorway
Annual percentage change
Sources: Norges Bank, Valueguard and the Riksbank
Housing prices in Stockholm and Oslo
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Stockholm apartmentsStockholm housesOslo
Annual percentage change
Sources: Norges Bank, Valueguard and the Riksbank
Number of listings on Hemnet
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
08 10 12 14 16
Houses
Tenant-owned apartments
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
08 10 12 14 16
Houses
Tenant-owned apartments
All listings Newly produced housing
Note. Seasonally adjusted series.
Sources: Hemnet, Mäklarstatistik and the Riksbank
Housing affordability in Sweden
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2005 2010 2015
Greater StockholmGreater GothenburgGreater MalmöRest of Sweden
Note. Housing affordability is measured by the median home price relative to median household disposable income.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Disposable income, house prices and household debt
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Disposable income
Household debt
House prices
Index, 1996 Q1 =100
Note. Disposable income refers to four quarter moving average.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Household debt in Sweden
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15Debt-to-income ratioDebt-to-income ratio including the debt of tenant owned associations
Per cent of disposable income
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Rate fixation periods for the mortgage stock in Sweden
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Chart Title
Fixed Adjustable
Per cent of mortgages
Source: Statistics Sweden
Debt ratios and total debt for Swedish households with mortgages
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
250 000
500 000
750 000
1 000 000
1 250 000
1 500 000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Per cent of disposable income SEK
Note. Columns are medians. Diamonds are means. Data refer to September of every year.
Source: The Riksbank
Swedish households with high debts
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Debt ratio > 400%Debt ratio > 600%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mortgage > 1 millionMortgage > 2 million
Per cent of households with mortgages Per cent of households with mortgages
Source: The Riksbank
Total debt and debt-to-income for Swedish households with mortgages by income decile
Per cent of disposable income SEK
0
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
0%
150%
300%
450%
600%
1 (11) 2 (19) 3 (23) 4 (27) 5 (31) 6 (37) 7 (42) 8 (47) 9 (54) 10 (74)
After-tax income decile (Monthly income (KSEK) in partentheses)
Debt to income (left axis)Total debt (right axis)
Note. Data refer to September 2017. The results for the first income decile should be interpreted with caution, as tax-exempt income sources such as child and housing support are not observed.
Source: The Riksbank
Debt to income for Swedish households with mortgages by age decile
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1 (27) 2 (34) 3 (39) 4 (44) 5 (48) 6 (52) 7 (57) 8 (63) 9 (69) 10 (78)
Age decile (2017 average age)
2010 2013 2016 2017
Per cent of disposable income
Note. Columns are medians. Diamonds are means. Data refer to September of every year.
Source: The Riksbank
Debt to income for Swedish households with mortgages by municipality
110-150
150-200
200-250
250-300
300-350
350-400
400-450
450-540
Note. Data refer to September 2017.
Source: The Riksbank.
Per cent of disposable income
Household-level changes in mortgage debt
Note. Data refer to September of each year.
Source: The Riksbank
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Debt decreased Debt unchanged Debt increased
2011 2013 2015 2017
Per cent of households with mortgages
Macroprudential policies in SwedenMeasure Implementation / adjustment date
Bank capitalRisk-weight floor for mortgages, 25 per cent May 2013 / September 2014
Pillar II capital add-on for major banks (2%) September 2014
Systemic Risk buffer for major banks (3%) January 2015
Countercyclical capital buffer (2%) September 2015 / March 2017
Bank liquidityLiquidity Coverage Ratio in euro, dollar, total January 2014
Macroprudential policies in SwedenMeasure Implementation / adjustment date
Borrower based measuresMaximum LTV ratio, 85 per cent October 2010
Amortisation requirement June 2016
Sharpened amortisation requirement March 2018
Financial fragility indicator
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
Note. See Giordani et al. (2016).
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Recommendations• The sharpened amortisation requirement should be introduced as soon as possible
• Improve the functioning of the housing market
• More macroprudential measures might be needed
• A country-wide credit registry should be established
• Data on both assets and liabilities of Swedish households should be collected