v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt...

24
Housing market and household debt in Sweden Norges Bank, 21 November 2017 Peter van Santen Senior Economist Financial Stability Department

Transcript of v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt...

Page 1: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Housing market and household debt in Sweden

Norges Bank, 21 November 2017

Peter van SantenSenior Economist

Financial Stability Department

Page 2: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

DisclaimerThe views expressed are my own and do not necessarily represent the

views of the Executive Board of Sveriges Riksbank.

Page 3: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Agenda• Background: Housing prices and household debt in Sweden

• Macroprudential policy

Page 4: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

BackgroundHousing prices and household debt in Sweden

Page 5: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Housing prices in Stockholm and Oslo, 1980-2015Index, 1985 = 100

Sources: Norges Bank, Valueguard and the Riksbank

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Stockholm housesStockholm apartmentsOslo

Page 6: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Housing prices in Sweden and Norway

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SwedenNorway

Annual percentage change

Sources: Norges Bank, Valueguard and the Riksbank

Page 7: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Housing prices in Stockholm and Oslo

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Stockholm apartmentsStockholm housesOslo

Annual percentage change

Sources: Norges Bank, Valueguard and the Riksbank

Page 8: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Number of listings on Hemnet

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

08 10 12 14 16

Houses

Tenant-owned apartments

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

08 10 12 14 16

Houses

Tenant-owned apartments

All listings Newly produced housing

Note. Seasonally adjusted series.

Sources: Hemnet, Mäklarstatistik and the Riksbank

Page 9: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Housing affordability in Sweden

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2005 2010 2015

Greater StockholmGreater GothenburgGreater MalmöRest of Sweden

Note. Housing affordability is measured by the median home price relative to median household disposable income.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Page 10: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Disposable income, house prices and household debt

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Disposable income

Household debt

House prices

Index, 1996 Q1 =100

Note. Disposable income refers to four quarter moving average.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Page 11: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Household debt in Sweden

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15Debt-to-income ratioDebt-to-income ratio including the debt of tenant owned associations

Per cent of disposable income

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Page 12: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Rate fixation periods for the mortgage stock in Sweden

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Chart Title

Fixed Adjustable

Per cent of mortgages

Source: Statistics Sweden

Page 13: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Debt ratios and total debt for Swedish households with mortgages

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170

250 000

500 000

750 000

1 000 000

1 250 000

1 500 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Per cent of disposable income SEK

Note. Columns are medians. Diamonds are means. Data refer to September of every year.

Source: The Riksbank

Page 14: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Swedish households with high debts

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Debt ratio > 400%Debt ratio > 600%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mortgage > 1 millionMortgage > 2 million

Per cent of households with mortgages Per cent of households with mortgages

Source: The Riksbank

Page 15: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Total debt and debt-to-income for Swedish households with mortgages by income decile

Per cent of disposable income SEK

0

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

0%

150%

300%

450%

600%

1 (11) 2 (19) 3 (23) 4 (27) 5 (31) 6 (37) 7 (42) 8 (47) 9 (54) 10 (74)

After-tax income decile (Monthly income (KSEK) in partentheses)

Debt to income (left axis)Total debt (right axis)

Note. Data refer to September 2017. The results for the first income decile should be interpreted with caution, as tax-exempt income sources such as child and housing support are not observed.

Source: The Riksbank

Page 16: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Debt to income for Swedish households with mortgages by age decile

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1 (27) 2 (34) 3 (39) 4 (44) 5 (48) 6 (52) 7 (57) 8 (63) 9 (69) 10 (78)

Age decile (2017 average age)

2010 2013 2016 2017

Per cent of disposable income

Note. Columns are medians. Diamonds are means. Data refer to September of every year.

Source: The Riksbank

Page 17: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Debt to income for Swedish households with mortgages by municipality

110-150

150-200

200-250

250-300

300-350

350-400

400-450

450-540

Note. Data refer to September 2017.

Source: The Riksbank.

Per cent of disposable income

Page 18: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Household-level changes in mortgage debt

Note. Data refer to September of each year.

Source: The Riksbank

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Debt decreased Debt unchanged Debt increased

2011 2013 2015 2017

Per cent of households with mortgages

Page 19: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Macroprudential policy

Page 20: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Macroprudential policies in SwedenMeasure Implementation / adjustment date

Bank capitalRisk-weight floor for mortgages, 25 per cent May 2013 / September 2014

Pillar II capital add-on for major banks (2%) September 2014

Systemic Risk buffer for major banks (3%) January 2015

Countercyclical capital buffer (2%) September 2015 / March 2017

Bank liquidityLiquidity Coverage Ratio in euro, dollar, total January 2014

Page 21: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Macroprudential policies in SwedenMeasure Implementation / adjustment date

Borrower based measuresMaximum LTV ratio, 85 per cent October 2010

Amortisation requirement June 2016

Sharpened amortisation requirement March 2018

Page 22: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Reflections on macroprudential policy

Page 23: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Financial fragility indicator

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15

Note. See Giordani et al. (2016).

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Page 24: v P u l v Z } µ Z } o ] v ^ Á v - norges-bank.no€¦ · Title: Housing market and household debt in Sweden Created Date: 11/20/2017 2:15:21 PM

Recommendations• The sharpened amortisation requirement should be introduced as soon as possible

• Improve the functioning of the housing market

• More macroprudential measures might be needed

• A country-wide credit registry should be established

• Data on both assets and liabilities of Swedish households should be collected


v v Ç & ] v v ( } / v o µ ] À ' } Á Z W ] À > ] u ] ~Z X / v > l Z · 2020. 7. 8. · ~Z X / v > l Z W ] µ o E } z v ï í D Z î ì î ì ~Z X / v > l Z W ] µ o & } Z Ç v

v v Ç & ] v v ( } / v o µ ] À ' } Á Z W ] À > ] u ] ~Z X / v > l Z · 2020. 7. 8. · ~Z X / v > l Z W ] µ o E } z v ï í D Z î ì î ì ~Z X / v > l Z W ] µ o & } Z Ç v

' o } o > ] P Z v ] v P Z Z v µ } ( tt>>Eearthweb.ess.washington.edu/holzworth/Holzworth.Virts.NOAA-GLM... · K v Ç U Z } Á ] v P v /E Z ^ Á ] Z E v tt>>E ^ } u Z v Z Z Z µ o

' o } o > ] P Z v ] v P Z Z v µ } ( tt>>Eearthweb.ess.washington.edu/holzworth/Holzworth.Virts.NOAA-GLM... · K v Ç U Z } Á ] v P v /E Z ^ Á ] Z E v tt>>E ^ } u Z v Z Z Z µ o

MONETARY POLICY REPORT - norges-bank.no

MONETARY POLICY REPORT - norges-bank.no

UNCEFACT Reference Data Models - Single Windows … 2_SCRDM_UNCEFACT.pdfd Z u } o Z ] v Z hE l & d Z ( v D } o õ d Z ] v v ] } v o ^ µ o Ç Z ] v Z ( v D } o

UNCEFACT Reference Data Models - Single Windows … 2_SCRDM_UNCEFACT.pdfd Z u } o Z ] v Z hE l & d Z ( v D } o õ d Z ] v v ] } v o ^ µ o Ç Z ] v Z ( v D } o

u } ( ] } ] v ] } ] W u } ( Z , µ u v' µ } v v } Z u } Z P ] Z ] Z ] } o ......^ ] P v ] ( ] v ] o P } Á Z ] v Z i i µ v µ u v ] o µ u U u } o Ç ] v Z ] o Z } µ o o X U W

u } ( ] } ] v ] } ] W u } ( Z , µ u v' µ } v v } Z u } Z P ] Z ] Z ] } o ......^ ] P v ] ( ] v ] o P } Á Z ] v Z i i µ v µ u v ] o µ u U u } o Ç ] v Z ] o Z } µ o o X U W

^ Á ] Z } v } o · Á ] Z X ^ Ç ] v P ] v Z ] U ( ] v v ^^ Á ] Z _ U v Z v ^ E Á ^ Á ] Z _ X z } µ Á ] o o Z } Á v ï } ...

^ Á ] Z } v } o · Á ] Z X ^ Ç ] v P ] v Z ] U ( ] v v ^^ Á ] Z _ U v Z v ^ E Á ^ Á ] Z _ X z } µ Á ] o o Z } Á v ï } ...

t Z o Z > v P µ P v h v ] E ] } v } u u µ v ] ] } v ^ l ... · > v ] v P hE,Y d l Z } } µ v ] Ç } ... P ] o ] ] v o } hE,Y ] v E Á z } l } µ ] Z ] v v P o ] Z & v Z Z µ ] v

t Z o Z > v P µ P v h v ] E ] } v } u u µ v ] ] } v ^ l ... · > v ] v P hE,Y d l Z } } µ v ] Ç } ... P ] o ] ] v o } hE,Y ] v E Á z } l } µ ] Z ] v v P o ] Z & v Z Z µ ] v

Sujet PostDoc PCM 2021 - eurmicsoc.org CEMES_GS… · d Z } i W / v ( À Ç o ] o ] l v } Á v } ( Z Z Ç ] o v Z u ] o Z v P Á Z ] Z µ o ] v Z o ] o Á ] Z } (

Sujet PostDoc PCM 2021 - eurmicsoc.org CEMES_GS… · d Z } i W / v ( À Ç o ] o ] l v } Á v } ( Z Z Ç ] o v Z u ] o Z v P Á Z ] Z µ o ] v Z o ] o Á ] Z } (

d Z } ] v ] } v Æ ] v Z } Z } } ( Z µ Z } v } v } v ] o Ç G Z À ] Á } ( Z · 2015. 3. 31. · o } o Ç Á ] Z P } À v u v o U ] v P } À v u v o v v } v r P } À v u v o v X

d Z } ] v ] } v Æ ] v Z } Z } } ( Z µ Z } v } v } v ] o Ç G Z À ] Á } ( Z · 2015. 3. 31. · o } o Ç Á ] Z P } À v u v o U ] v P } À v u v o v v } v r P } À v u v o v X

t Z Z Z ] v P À ] } KZ Z ] o } v ( } D } v Ç d Z l ō l } µ v U …...t Z v Ç } µ ( ] v ] Z Z v Z À Ç } µ µ v ] ] v P Z Á } l } Ç } µ X 7 Title 1st Grade Learning Plan

t Z Z Z ] v P À ] } KZ Z ] o } v ( } D } v Ç d Z l ō l } µ v U …...t Z v Ç } µ ( ] v ] Z Z v Z À Ç } µ µ v ] ] v P Z Á } l } Ç } µ X 7 Title 1st Grade Learning Plan

> v ] v P Z v Á } l W W íbhiksha/courses/deeplearning/... · 2017-09-06 · t Z Á o v W d Z u } ( Z v Á } l ' ] À v W Z Z ] µ } ( Z v Á } l d Z u } ( Z v Á } l Wd Z Á ] P

> v ] v P Z v Á } l W W íbhiksha/courses/deeplearning/... · 2017-09-06 · t Z Á o v W d Z u } ( Z v Á } l ' ] À v W Z Z ] µ } ( Z v Á } l d Z u } ( Z v Á } l Wd Z Á ] P

o ] ( } v ] & } z } µ Z µ ] } v > Á & ^ Z · 2019-09-06 · ^ } v } u } µ v Ç K ( ( ] } ( µ ] } v U & } , } u o z } µ Z µ ] } v ^ À ] ^ ( ] Z o o ] v d Z u Ç W } i d Z ]

o ] ( } v ] & } z } µ Z µ ] } v > Á & ^ Z · 2019-09-06 · ^ } v } u } µ v Ç K ( ( ] } ( µ ] } v U & } , } u o z } µ Z µ ] } v ^ À ] ^ ( ] Z o o ] v d Z u Ç W } i d Z ]

v , ] v ] D } À ] ^ í í · } Z v v o ' v Z v v o Ç DZW ~Z X ZW ~Z X ^d Z ^ ^ } í , ^ } , í õ í õ

v , ] v ] D } À ] ^ í í · } Z v v o ' v Z v v o Ç DZW ~Z X ZW ~Z X ^d Z ^ ^ } í , ^ } , í õ í õ

v } Z Z À } o Ç ( Z P ] v Z ] À ] u v

v } Z Z À } o Ç ( Z P ] v Z ] À ] u v

^ v ] v v ] À v ] v ] v P ] u W ( o ] } v ( } u Z ^ Z D ] o v , Ç } Z Ç ^ À ] ] v ... · 2020-05-29 · ] Ì Z Ç M } o ] v W t Z À Á } Z Ç } Z Ç } } o U Z o P } } o ] í

^ v ] v v ] À v ] v ] v P ] u W ( o ] } v ( } u Z ^ Z D ] o v , Ç } Z Ç ^ À ] ] v ... · 2020-05-29 · ] Ì Z Ç M } o ] v W t Z À Á } Z Ç } Z Ç } } o U Z o P } } o ] í

í v î } ( < ] v P > d Á ] Z z í î > ] µ µ v Z À Ç v Z ] Z ...

í v î } ( < ] v P > d Á ] Z z í î > ] µ µ v Z À Ç v Z ] Z ...

Praesentation Anschluesse 3 - bauschule-sba.ch · ] P v Z ( v ^ Z Z µ v ] o `< } v } o o r µ v ] v ] P Z Z

Praesentation Anschluesse 3 - bauschule-sba.ch · ] P v Z ( v ^ Z Z µ v ] o `< } v } o o r µ v ] v ] P Z Z

visarteam.design · Z Z Z [ \ \ \ v Q v y y Z j [ e Z Z. Z Z Z [ \ \ \ v Q v y y Z j [ e Z m y y

visarteam.design · Z Z Z [ \ \ \ v Q v y y Z j [ e Z Z. Z Z Z [ \ \ \ v Q v y y Z j [ e Z m y y

K t Z Z/ &/E' W W Z d Z ^ } ( Z u Ç µ v Z K ' µ ] o ] v · 2020. 6. 16. · d Z ^ } ( Z u Ç µ v Z K ' µ ] o ] v r h v v ] v P E W } v o µ ] v î ì í õ Z } µ P Z Z o v }

K t Z Z/ &/E' W W Z d Z ^ } ( Z u Ç µ v Z K ' µ ] o ] v · 2020. 6. 16. · d Z ^ } ( Z u Ç µ v Z K ' µ ] o ] v r h v v ] v P E W } v o µ ] v î ì í õ Z } µ P Z Z o v }

^ Ç v Z ] v ] } Ç v Z ] ^ µ ] } v Ç } u ] ] v - Thieme^ µ } Ç ^ Ç v Z ] v ] } Ç v Z ] ^ µ ] } v Ç } u ] ] v ^ µ ] ] Á X D Z U E ] Z } o Z X > U D Z Á : X Ç v U > ] r

^ Ç v Z ] v ] } Ç v Z ] ^ µ ] } v Ç } u ] ] v - Thieme^ µ } Ç ^ Ç v Z ] v ] } Ç v Z ] ^ µ ] } v Ç } u ] ] v ^ µ ] ] Á X D Z U E ] Z } o Z X > U D Z Á : X Ç v U > ] r