Post on 12-Nov-2014
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World Soy Supply and Demand Overview
Soybeans, Corn, Wheat, Cotton, and RicePercentage Change in Global Consumption 1990/91 – 2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
Soybean demand up 152%; corn up by 83%, wheat up by only 21%
Global Soybean Production and Consumption2000/01 – 2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
Annual Growth in Global Soybean Consumption 2000/01 – 2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
Global Soybean Production by Country2010/11 Marketing Year
Global Soymeal Consumption by Region2011/12 Marketing Year
Soybean ProductionU.S., Argentina, Brazil and China
0102030405060708090
100
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
Argentina Brazil USA China
Argentina’s Soybean Exports and Crush2000/01 – 2010/11
Source: USDA
U.S. Soybean Harvested Area2000 – 2011
29.30 29.53 29.34 29.3329.93
28.83
30.19
25.96
30.22
30.91 31.00
29.80
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mill
ion
Hec
tare
s
U.S. Soybean Production2000 – 2010 and USDA Forecast for 2011
75.0678.67
75.01
66.78
85.02 83.5187.00
72.86
80.75
91.42 90.61
83.17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MM
T
%
U.S. Soybean Crush and Exports 2000/10 – 2010/11 and USDA Forecast for 2011/12
44.6346.26
43.9541.63
46.16 47.3249.20 49.08
45.2347.67
44.85 43.95
27.1028.95 28.42
24.13
29.86
25.58
30.39 31.5434.82
40.80 40.86
34.70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
Crush Exports
U.S. Soymeal Consumption2000/10 – 2010/11 and USDA Forecast for 2011/12
28.36
29.55
29.10
28.53
30.45
30.11
31.17
30.15
27.90 27.80
27.4727.31
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
U.S. Production of Pork and Broiler Meat2006 - 2011
U.S. Soyoil Consumption For Food/Feed and Industrial Use2000/10 – 2010/11 and USDA Forecast for 2011/12
7.38 7.59 7.69 7.59 7.71 7.44 7.17 6.856.47 6.43 6.46 6.40
0.71 1.251.47
0.91 0.761.16
1.63
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
Food & Feed Industrial Use
Global Soymeal Consumption 2000/01 – 2010/11 and USDA Forecast for 2011/12
116.2123.7
130.5 128.5136.7
145.5152.3 156.5 151.9
160.8170.2
177.4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
Global Soyoil Consumption 2000/01 – 2010/11 and USDA Forecast for 2011/12
26.428.3
30.2 30.131.7
33.635.4
37.736.0
38.3
41.042.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
U.S. Net Vegoil Imports 2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
636
78
305
1,171
1,003
1,480
1,194
1,430
1,773
1,390
1,750
2,840
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MT
000
Global Vegetable Oils Stocks to Use Ratio 2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
10.6%
9.7%
8.8% 8.7%
9.5%9.1%
8.1%8.6%
10.5%
9.8%
8.7%8.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
U.S. Soybean Exports2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
27.1028.95 28.42
24.13
29.86
25.58
30.39 31.54
34.82
40.80 40.86
34.70
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
U.S. Soymeal Exports 2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
7.335 7.271
5.728
4.69
6.6597.301
7.9878.384
7.708
10.124
8.259 7.983
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
U.S. Soyoil Exports 2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
0.636
1.1431.027
0.425
0.60.523
0.851
1.32
0.995
1.5241.466
0.544
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
Global Exports of Soybeans and of Soymeal + Soyoil 2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
53.7 52.9
61.256.0
64.8 63.4
70.9
78.8 76.8
92.6 92.495.8
43.2
50.0 51.954.8 56.8
62.365.9 67.5
62.064.7
67.9 69.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
Soybeans Soymeal + Soyoil
Share of U.S. Soybean Production Exported as Soybeans, Soymeal, or Soyoil
2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
46.7% 47.5% 46.9%43.8% 43.7%
40.0%
45.1%
56.6%53.9%
57.4% 55.8%52.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Expo
rted
Shar
e
Argentina and Brazil Soybean Harvested Area2000 – 2012
10.411.4
12.614.0 14.4
15.216.3 16.4 16.0
18.6 18.3 18.7
13.9
16.4
18.4
21.522.9 22.2
20.7 21.3 21.7
23.524.2
25.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mill
ion
Hec
tare
s
ArgentinaBrazil
U.S, Argentina and BrazilSoybean Stocks at End of Their Marketing Years
2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
6.74
5.66
4.85
3.06
6.96
12.23
15.62
5.58
3.764.11
5.85
7.19
0.340.82
1.752.16
0.17 0.33
1.87
5.96
4.50 4.51
3.63 3.53
0.46 0.68
3.30 3.60
1.642.25
3.11
5.32
1.66
2.77
5.19
3.06
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
USA Argentina Brazil
World’s Largest Soybean ImportersForecast for 20011/12 Marketing Year
0.40
0.42
0.62
0.90
1.05
1.20
1.26
1.40
1.75
1.95
2.00
2.40
2.85
3.50
12.00
56.50
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
SyriaNorway
MalaysiaRussia
IranTurkey
Korea, SouthVietnam
EgyptIndonesia
ThailandTaiwan
JapanMexico
EU-27China
MMT
Soybean Imports by China and Rest of World1995/96 – 2010/11 and USDA Forecast for 2011/12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
MM
T
China Rest of World
World’s Largest Soymeal ConsumersForecast for 2011/12 Marketing Year
1.75
1.90
2.03
2.08
2.15
2.36
2.90
2.93
3.10
3.50
3.75
4.05
4.40
13.95
27.31
31.28
47.40
0 10 20 30 40 50
TaiwanCanada
PhilippinesEgypt
RussiaKorea, South
VietnamIran
IndonesiaIndia
JapanThailand
MexicoBrazil
United StatesEU-27China
MMT
China’s Soymeal Consumption1971/72 – 2010/11 and USDA Forecast for 2011/12
0
10
20
30
40
50
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
MM
T
China’s Vegoil Consumption and Imports 2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
13.52 14.09
17.1318.89
20.5021.51
22.56 23.3424.74
26.91 27.6629.11
2.89 2.87
5.236.99 6.65 6.96
8.50 8.769.77 9.00 8.39
9.33
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
Consumption Imports
China’s Production of Pork and Chicken Meat2000 – 2011 and USDA Forecast for 2012
39.66 40.52 41.23 42.39 43.4145.55 46.51
42.88
46.2148.91
51.1649.81
51.56
9.27 9.28 9.56 9.90 10.00 10.20 10.35 11.29 11.84 12.10 12.46 13.02 13.61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MM
T
Pork Chicken Meat
China’s Annual Per Capita Consumption of Meat, Excluding Fish2007 - 2011
India’s Soymeal Exports and Consumption 2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
2.362.57
1.51
3.68
2.24
4.27 4.14
5.29
3.81
2.75
3.11
3.50
1.12 1.15 1.19
0.70
1.37 1.35
1.02
1.45
1.95
3.15
4.64
4.30
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MM
T
Exports Consumption
China’s Consumption of Palm Oil, Peanut Oil, Rapeseed Oil, and Soybean Oil
2001/02 – 2009/10 and USDA Forecast for 2010/11 and 2011/12
2.02 3.10 3.57 4.32 4.97 5.14 5.22 5.62 5.93 5.80 6.19
4.14
6.397.16
7.207.61 8.67 9.69
9.49
10.4411.11
12.06
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
Palm Oil Peanut Oil Rapeseed Oil Soybean Oil
India’s Vegoil Consumption and Imports 2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
11.11 10.76 10.6711.25 11.67
12.18 11.8112.97
14.5615.29
16.2617.10
6.014.98 5.36
4.595.68
4.865.44 5.92
8.79 9.07 8.589.10
02468
1012141618
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
Consumption Soybeans
Middle East’s Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal 2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
1.731.83
2.06
2.37
3.04 3.07
3.473.31
2.74
3.52
3.02 3.03
2.53
2.27
2.54
2.98
2.362.21
2.62
2.92
3.60 3.54
4.034.25
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
Soybeans Soymeal
North Africa’s Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal 2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
0.50
0.69 0.63 0.68
1.26 1.20
1.77
1.47
1.961.83 1.79
1.951.78
2.07
1.831.97
1.491.62
1.761.60 1.61
2.02
2.35 2.42
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
Soybeans Soymeal
Japan’s, South Korea’s and Taiwan’s Imports of Soybeans 2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
4.775.02 5.09
4.69
4.30
3.964.09 4.01
3.40 3.40
2.92 2.85
1.39 1.43 1.521.37
1.24 1.19 1.23 1.23 1.17 1.20 1.24 1.26
2.332.58
2.352.22 2.26
2.50 2.442.15 2.22
2.47 2.45 2.40
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
Japan South Korea Taiwan
EU-27 Soymeal Consumption 2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
30.71
33.41 33.34 32.73 32.68 32.88 33.2335.17
31.5830.14 30.72 31.28
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
EU Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal 2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
17.618.7
16.9
14.7 14.5 13.915.3 15.1
13.2 12.7 12.5 12.0
17.7
20.0 20.522.0 21.9
22.8 22.2
24.1
21.0 20.721.7
22.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
Soybeans Soymeal
Mexico’s Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal 2000/01 –2010/11 and Forecast for 2011/12
4.44.5
4.2
3.83.6 3.7
3.83.6
3.33.5 3.5 3.5
0.30.4
0.7 0.8
1.3
1.7 1.8
1.41.5
1.2
1.5 1.6
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
Soybeans Soymeal
Southeast Asia’s Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal 2000/01 –2010/11 and USDA Forecast for 2011/12
3.443
4.084 3.8633.362
3.73.224
3.545 3.585 3.6714.223
5.5866.085
5.123
5.99
6.764
6.059
6.966
8.279
9.464 9.2319.558
10.29110.763 10.817
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MM
T
Soybeans Soymeal
Japan’s Consumption of Rapeseed Oil and Soybean Oil 2000/01 –2010/11 and USDA Forecast for 2011/12
873902
951 954 943 918 916 919 920956 945
700731 720
639
573 577 573536
459403 378
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
MT
000
Rapeseed Oil Soybean Oil