Use of PAGASA Products and ServicesRice Watch and Action Network (R1)

Presented at the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum, Nov 18, 2016

Rice Watch and Action Network

• Network of NGOs

• Formed in 2004

• Policy Advocacy and Research (i.e. agri-related, fair trade, cc, participatory budgeting and budget tracking, etc)

• Assisting LGUs in CC Action Planning and in implementation of a DRR-CCA project

Communities should have access to climate info/warnings and

agri/fish livelihoods risk management advise

Diversified income sources

Insured and with Access to Emergency Support Services

Utilize sustainable, ecological and proven and affordable

farm/livelihood technologies

Organized and with Community Resiliency Plans

Community Resiliency Framework

Programs

Multi-Stakeholder PartnershipLocal

Governments

Climate-resiliency Field School Implementing LGUs

Calasiao PangasinanGuimba, Nueva Ecija

Munoz, NE

Castilla, SorsogonSorsogon City

Sta.Magdalena

Jabonga Agusan

Alamada North Cotabato

Pigcawayan North Cotabato

Dumingag Zambo

Isulan, SKLambayong SKKoronadal City

Tubigon Bohol

Daanbantayan, CebuBantayan, Cebu

Madridejos, Cebu

Batad Iloilo

San Luis Aurora, Gen.Nakar, Quezon

Pila Laguna

Catbalogan,SamarDolores Samar,

Ormoc City, McArthur,LeyteBasey, Samar,

Salcedo, SamarMarabut, SamarLawaan, Samar

Irosin, SorsogonGerona Tarlac

Esperanza, SKBagumbayan SK

Program Objectives Provide early warning service to help farmers manage

climate/weather-related risks;

determine LGU’s disaster thresholds by regularly correlating local climate data and community impacts.

Generate climate information needed to inform LGU’s CC action planning;

Enhance farmers/fishers knowledge on climate variability and anticipatory abilities to inform livelihood decisions;

Learn and practice various sustainable methods of farming/livelihood and have access to a variety of resiliency strategies;.

(Permanent) Climate Services to be Performed by LGUs

(1) Local Weather Observation

(2) Farm Weather Advisory Creation

(3) Dissemination of Advisories

(4) Weather and Impacts Benchmarking

PAGASA Services Accessed• Instrument calibration

• Installation of weather monitoring instruments

• PAGASA experts to train LGUs, do local climate fora, provide expertise in climate change action planning and other activities (i.e. El Nino Contingency Planning)

Climate Information for

Risk Assessment and Adaptation Planning

Climate Profiles of the Area

Climate Change Projections

Day to day recording

• Historical Annual Rainfall 10-20 years

• TC records directly passing the area and within 50 kms

• Normal rainfall per month

• Average rainfall per month during EN

• Average rainfall per month during LN

2050 rainfall projections

2050 temp projection

Weather

Community impacts

List of Tropical Cyclones which crossed

TARLAC from 1948-2013

YEAR MONTH TYPE TC_NAME PAR_BEG PAR_END

1948 7 TD ROSE 7/23/1948 7/26/1948

1952 8 TY LOIS 8/22/1952 8/26/1952

1953 10 TY BET 10/26/1953 10/29/1953

1956 11 TY LUCILLE 11/13/1956 11/19/1956

1960 6 TY OLIVE 6/23/1960 6/28/1960

1961 9 TS RUBY 9/21/1961 9/22/1961

1964 12 TY NANING 12/11/1964 12/16/1964

1966 11 TS UDING 11/18/1966 11/23/1966

1968 11 TY TOYANG 11/26/1968 11/29/1968

1972 6 TY KONSING 6/23/1972 6/26/1972

1972 9 TD NITANG 9/8/1972 9/12/1972

1974 11 TY BIDANG 11/24/1974 11/29/1974

1977 7 TY ELANG 7/16/1977 7/18/1977

1977 11 TY UNDING 11/10/1977 11/16/1977

1978 9 TS UDING 9/22/1978 9/23/1978

1979 10 TD SISANG 10/1/1979 10/3/1979

1980 6 TD ISANG 6/30/1980 7/1/1980

1980 7 TD MARING 7/15/1980 7/17/1980

1981 11 TY ANDING 11/22/1981 11/27/1981

1985 7 TD ELANG 7/4/1985 7/6/1985

1985 10 TY SALING 10/15/1985 10/19/1985

1987 8 TY ISING 8/12/1987 8/19/1987

1988 10 TY UNSANG 10/21/1988 10/26/1988

1989 11 TY UNSING 11/16/1989 11/23/1989

1993 9 TY KADIANG 9/30/1993 10/7/1993

1993 10 TD EPANG 10/6/1993 10/12/1993

1994 6 TS GADING 6/21/1994 6/23/1994

1998 10 TY LOLENG 10/15/1998 10/24/1998

1999 10 TS RENING 10/15/1999 10/17/1999

2002 7 TD JUAN 7/18/2002 7/23/2002

2008 6 TY FRANK 6/18/2008 6/23/2008

2013 10 TY SANTI 10/8/2013 10/13/2013

Irosin’s Climate Profile

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Normal rainfall(1981-2010

13.8 13.2 16.2 42.9 164 239.9 369.4 380.6 308.5 191.1 90 34.9

2050 climate projections

0 0 0 (3%) (38)%

11% 10% 28% 31% (12)%

(12)%

30%

2015 reading

5.6 0.2 0 31.6 94.2 87.2 269 234 204.8 210.8 0 128.6

Integrating past, future and present to understand

possible climate change impacts to livelihoods and

communities

Gerona, Tarlac

DESCRIPTION OF EVENT

(SOME EXAMPLES

AWS READING

(AND OTHER DATA

SOURCES)

HAZARDS THAT MAY

RESULT OUT OF THIS

DESCRIBING HAZARD IMPACTS

INTENSE RAINS but no typhoon

RAINFALLWATER LEVEL MARKERS

(Exposure)FLOODINGLANDSLIDE/SOIL EROSIONPEST OCCURENCES

(sensitivity)LOCATION OF FLOODED AREAS NOS. OF AFFECTED

• IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS ESP AGRI/FISH PRODUCTION

• IMPACTS TO ASSETS• IMPACTS TO ENVIRONMENT

Tropical cyclone WINDRAINFALL READINGWATER LEVEL MARKERS

(exposure)Destructive windLANDSLIDE/SOIL EROSIONSTORM SURGEFLOODING

(sensitivity)LOCATION OF AFFECTEDNUMBER OF AFFECTED

• IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS ESP AGRI/FISH PRODUCTION

• IMPACTS TO ASSETS• IMPACTS TO ENVIRONMENT

HIGH TEMP TEMP (exposure)EXTREME HEATTRIGGER PEST OUTBREAKS

(sensitivity)NUMBER OF AFFECTED

• IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS ESP AGRI/FISH PRODUCTION

• IMPACTS TO ASSETS• IMPACTS TO ENVIRONMENT

SLOW ONSET TIDE MARKERS (exposure)

AWS DATA 2015 (WITH EL NIÑO FORECAST)2015 AWS DATA JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

GERONA NORMALS (AWS)RAINFALL (mm) 5.6 0.2 0 31.6 94.2 87.2 269 234 204.8 210.8 0 128.6MIN. TEMP. (°C) 17.9 17.1 16.8 20.1 23.2 23.3 22.3 23 23.2 22.7 19.8 20.1HIGH TEMP. (°C) 32.1 32.5 35.3 37.9 38.4 37.6 35.6 36 36 34.9 34.9 34.6WIND SPEED (M/S) MAX 12.1 14.3 9.8 13 14.8 20.6 12.1 14.3 13.4 24.1 12.9 13WIND SPEED (M/S) AVE. 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.9NO. OF DAYS W/ RAIN 1 1 0 2 15 16 24 22 22 12 0 8

MAX. RAINY DAY FOR 1 0 0 1 1 4 9 11 7 2 0 3THE MONTHHIGHEST DAILY RAINFALL (mm) 5.6 0.2 0 31.4 21 20.4 49.2 27.6 39.4 128.2 0 88.2

DATES OF RAIN Jan.18 Feb.15 n/a Apr.21 May.26 jun.11 jul.17 Aug.22Sept.1

9 Oct.18 n/a Dec.18

EXTREME 2015

date and time observed

reported community impact

description of extreme event no. of affected farmers

climate data record

March 27,28,30, 2015

livestock and human stress

extreme temp minimal ave. 37.5 °C for 3day

May 2,2015 livestock stress extreme temp minimal 38.4 °C

May 6,2015 livestock stress extreme temp minimal 37.6°C

july,5-18,2015 flooding typhoon "Falcon" signal#1 200 farmers 5day rain with 30-50mmdaily

Oct.18,2015 flooding,damaged crops&infra

Typhoon "Lando" signal# 2 2,400 farmers/ 200 families

2,400 farmers/200 families

160kph wind w/ 120mm rain/5h

Dec.16,2015 flooding,damaged crops

Typhoon " NONA" SIGNAL #1 400 farmers rainfall of 128mm in 5hours

LGUs Issue Farm-weather AdvisoriesPAGASA providing weather/climate forecast needs for early warning purposes

• Seasonal climate

outlook (4-6 months)

• 10 day forecast

• Extreme events

warning/forecast

LGU providing analysis on possible impacts and recommended advise to communities

exposed livelihoods in the area for the forecast period

Provide an idea on how forecast may negatively impact on these livelihoods (climate-livelihood relationship/phenology)

risks management ideas or options that are sustainable, cheap and climate friendly solutions

Utilization of Climate Information for Risk Management

________ Climate Info Center_______, 20__

Gen Weather Condition for 10 days

Gen.Weather

Expected TC

Forecast Rainfall

Ave. SoilMoisture

Temp. Range (in C)

Date ___ ___ ___ ___ ___

___ ___ ___ ___ ___

10-Day (Day-time) Weather Forecast/Advisory

Legend:

Exposed Livelihoods

Stage Weather-related Risks to Livelihoods

Risks Management Advice

Wind Force Expected Wave Height

Sea Condition Advice to Coastal Communities

Gale Warning Advisory for Today ________

Livelihoods' Risks Management Advisory

EXTREME EVENT WARNING

(for TC/EN/LN/drought, etc)

Early warning message brought to you by your

Local Government

With support from

Sunny and clear

Patches of clouds

partly-cloudy

Almost clear

Overcast Overcast, slight rains

Patches of clouds/slight rains

Partly cloudy, slight rain

partly cloudy, showers

Patches of clouds, showers

Overcast with showers

Partly cloudy, slight rains, thunder

Patches of clouds,showers, thunder

Overcast, with rains

Overcast, rains with thunder

Prepared by: __________________________________ / _______________ Approved : ______________________ / _______________

Dissemination Strategies

Weather Boards

Use in AESA during resiliency field school sessions /

1. Community analysis on possible risks of weather to their crops/livelihoods

2. Collective discussion of risks management measures farmers can take thru the weekly AESA

Shared on local radio programs

Regional Climate Forum and El Nino Contingency Planning ASA C Data

J F M A M J J A S O N D Annual

Normal

Rainfall (1980-

2010)

89.5 83 129.9 151.7 277.1 323.9 322.6 243.7 262.1 281.4 220.7 132.8 2,518

Ave. EN

Rainfall

75 51.9 87.2 86.1 228.1 341.8 425.6 257.3 328.6 232.6 152.1 88.2 2354.5

2014 actual 91.5 49.8 97.4 50.6 171.5 209.7 286.5 250.5 218.6 247.3 132.4 77.4 1883.2

2015 actual 90.4 42.7 9.6 63.6 73.9 165.7 156.7 221.7 302.5 109.8 139 35.8 1,411.40

2016

Notes:Bright red- values are lower than normal Blue- higher than normal

El Nino Contingency Planning (Nov 2015): Mitigating the Potential Impacts

Areas Livelihoods At risk Potential Lossesif no mitigation is done

Estimated Budget Needed (in Mil PH)

Existing LGU Resources

Sta Magdalena Rice, vege 19 M 2.440 million 250,000

Castilla Rice, corn, rootcrops,livestock,vege, fish

5,358 MT + 60 MT +30 MT)

36.5

Prieto Diaz 9 million 8.8 mil

Nabua Rice, corn, gabi, cucumber, mungbean,bayo

1,410 has (rice),600 (corn), 140(cu), 60 (Gabi) 60 (sesame) 80 (mungb)

70 has (eggplant),

8.050 BUB

Libmanan IA Rice of 132 members (76 has

114,000

Ocampo Rice, corn 151 million 200,000 (short term)1.9 million (long term

95,000

Bula (Pecuaria) 10.8 mil 2.2 million

Canaman Rice, fish 31.5 Million 6.000

Gainza rice 3.200 million 650,000

Baao Up.rice, low rice, vege, corn,ruminant, poultry

CamNorteCoopFed Rice, fish, vege, corn - 1.8 M -

TOTAL 224.6 Million 68.54 million

Suggested Solutions Crop-based Fisheries

Immediate Solutions Medium-term to Long term Immediate Solutions

Planting of early maturing varieties SWIP Look for other fish species not sensitive to increased temp (mudfish)

Select drought tolerant variety/upland variety Continue varietal trials to select most appropriate seeds to different types of climate

Provision of banca

Provision of inputs (seeds, fertilizers, seedlings,

Promotion of organic farming Engage in salt-making

Plant corn, mungbean instead of rice Adoption of organic ordinance

Crop insurance coverage Construction of additional irrigation

Distribution of STWs, additional pumps Post harvest facilities

Alternative livelihood (Food processing,

Use of drought resistant varieties

IEC activities on EN preparedness

Provision of technical assistance

Climate based EWS system/ Continuosrunning of CrFS program/climate forum/SMS warning

Water conservation and management such as SRI, water rationing

Close monitoring of crop

Coordinate with other actors (DA RFU, BFAR, NGO-R1

Financial assistance

BENEFITS AND IMPACTS

Benefits According to Users

Program Impact

Together, the forecasts, advice and training received, has generated substantial improvements in productivity, reduced costs and there is some indication of damage avoided, especially for crop production activities.

Promotion of Sustainable Farming Technologies

Livelihood Diversification in CRFS Areas

O r g a n i c F E R T I L I Z E R P R O D U C T I O N I N M O S T C r F S

S I T E S

Rice Milling Services

Coffee Roasting and Blending Base Feeds and Azola for Livestock Feeds

Community Resiliency Planning and Municipal Organisation Set-up

Community Organising and Social Enterprise Setup

• Community Produced

• Promotes consumption of healthier food

• Adds on to family incomes

• Community Produced

• Promotes safer food production

• Contributes to increased autonomy of farmers/rural communities

Helping Communities Access Negotiated and Mainstream Markets for their Products

Community- supported agricultureraising community awareness on the type of agriculture WE should support to promote healthy living

Community-supported agriculture is an alternative economic model of (resiliency) agriculture and food distribution.

Network of individuals, including institutions supporting local farmers and sharing in the risks and benefits of (safe) food production

Multiple Improvements in Assets and Capacities to Improve Resiliency

• Main impacts. Increased efficiency of inputs, labor, marketing resources. Increased Access to markets and improved product prices thru the use of the CrFS logo

Financial Capacity

• Other impacts. Protected houing avoiding damage. Protected other assetsPhysical Assets

• Main Impacts. Increased access to understanding of early warning and forecasts. Increased understanding of long term climate changeHuman Capacity

• Main Impacts. Increased social capital from group formation and operation. Better networks with LGU and PAGASA as sources of advise and support. Other Impacts. Increased linkage between CrFS groups.

Social Capital

• Main Impacts. Increased diversity of improved resilient varieties. Increased on farm productivity. Increased soil quality thru the use of organic fertilizers. Increased livestok health. Other Impacts. Avoided crop damages

Natural Assets

Benefits to LGUs

Local government became more attuned to the climate-appropriate needs of its farming clientele;

Monitors climate change as it happens–-thus allow local governments to understand what extreme events would mean to them and the community;

Improved extension service and relations with farming community;

• There is better appreciation for science and PAGASA’s services at the local level;

• PAGASA’s services have also become more relevant and responsive

Thank you