Assessment April Pagasa
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Transcript of Assessment April Pagasa
Climate
Impact
Assessment
Impact Assessment and Applications Section Climatology and Agrometeorology Division
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Department of Science and Technology
APRIL 2011
Number 04 / Volume 27
The Impact Assessment and Applications Section
(IAAS) of Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) regularly issue this monthly/bulletin which will provide users such as food security managers, economic policy makers, agricultural statisticians and agricultural extension officials with qualitative information on the current and potential effects of climate and weather variability on rainfed crops, particularly rice and corn. This bulletin, entitled “Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture in the Philippines”, represents a method for converting meteorological data into economic information that can be used as supplement to information from other available sources.
For example, an agricultural statistician or
economist involved in crop production and yield forecast problems can combine the assessment with analysis from area survey results, reports on the occurrence of pests and diseases, farmers reports and other data sources.
The impact assessments are based on agroclimatic
indices derived from historical rainfall data recorded for the period 1951 to the present. The indices, expressed in raw values percent of normals and percentile ranks, together with real time meteorological data (monthly rainfall, in percent of normal), percent of normal cumulative rainfall, as well as the occurrence of significant event such as typhoons, floods and droughts are the tools used in the assessment of crop performance. Crop reports from PAGASA field stations are also helpful.
The narrative impact assessment included in the
bulletin depicts the regional performance of upland, 1st lowland and 2nd lowland palay; and dry and wet season corn crops, depending on the period or the season. Tabulated values of normal rainfall and generalized monsoon and yield moisture indices are provided for ready reference. Spatial analysis of rainfall, percent of normal rainfall and the generalized monsoon indices in percentile ranks are also presented on maps to help users visualize any unusual weather occurring during the period. The generalized monsoon indices in particular, are drought indicators; hence, the tables (see Appendices) together with the threshold values can be used in assessing drought impact, if there are any. It also help assess any probable crop failure.
It is hoped therefore that this bulletin would help provide the decision-makers, planners and economist with timely and reliable early warning/information on climatic impact including the potential for subsistence food shortfalls, thereby enabling them to plan alternate cropping, if possible, food assistance strategies / mitigation measures to reduce the adverse impact of climate and eventually improve disaster preparedness.
Impact assessment for other principal crops such as sugarcane and coconut, for energy and for water resources management, are from time to time will be included in the forthcoming issues of this bulletin.
The IAAS of CAD will appreciate suggestions/comments from end-users and interested parties for the improvement of this bulletin. Definition of Terms
The Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI) helps determine the performance of the rains during the season and serves as a good indicator of potential irrigation supplies. It is a tool used to assess rainfed crops.
The GMI for the southwest monsoon (GMIsw) in an area during June to September is defined as follows:
GMIsw = W6P6+W7P7+W8P8+W9P9 The GMI for the northeast monsoon (GMIne) in an
area during October to January is defined as: GMIne=W10P10+W11P11+W12P12+W1P1
where: W =weight coefficient of monthly rainfall
for the season; P = rainfall amount in the ith month (i=1 for January, i=2 for February, etc.)
The Yield Moisture Index (YMI) is a simple index that helps the users assess agroclimatic crop conditions during the crop season. The YMI for a particular crop is defined as follows:
n
YMI = Pi Ki i where:
I = the crop stage (1=planting/ transplanting, 2=vegetative,
3= flowering, 4 = maturity, etc.) n = total no. of crop stages; P = the rainfall during the ith crop stage; and K = is the appropriate crop coefficient for
the ith crop stage. Tentatively, the threshold values of categories of
indices for interpretation being adopted for both YMI and GMI are as follows:
Percentile Rank
Interpretation
> 80 Potential for flood damage
41-80 Near normal to above- normal crop condition
21-40 Moderate drought impact with reduced yield
11-20 Drought impact with major yield losses
< 10 Severe drought impact with crop failure and potential food shortages
PREFACE
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AAGGRROOCCLLIIMMAATTIICC // CCRROOPP CCOONNDDIITTIIOONN AASSSSEESSSSMMEENNTT
FFOORR AAPPRRIILL 22001111
Overview
REGION I (Ilocos Region)
Farming activities may be hampered in most
parts of the region. Less moisture supply was experienced due to below to way below normal rainfall amount received during the month.
CAR (Cordillera Autonomous Region)
Poor yield is expected for the harvestable
standing crops in the region due to moisture stress experienced by the crops during its critical stages of growth development. Farming activities may possibly be delayed because of less rainfall observed in the area.
REGION II ( Cagayan Valley)
Good yield is expected for the harvestable
standing crops due to sufficient moisture received during the month.
REGION III (Central Luzon) Excessive rains experienced in the eastern part of the region might potentially damage the harvestable standing crops of early planted wet season corn. Crops suffered water clogging during its maturity and ripening stages. It will most likely to produce a very poor yield or no yield at all. However, good harvest is expected for the rest of the region.
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
Early planted wet season corn is expected to have a good yield due to sufficient moisture experienced by the crops during its critical stages of development.
The below normal rainfall amount received in the region may hamper the land preparations.
Harvesting of standing crops is expected to have a good yield in most parts of the country due to sufficient moisture supply during its critical stages and growth development. However, in the eastern part, the flooding brought by excessive rains might potentially damage to the harvestable crops as well as water clogging during its maturity and ripening stages and most likely produce a very poor yield. Land preparation of the dry season corn is favorable in some areas.
The tail-end of the cold front, easterly wave, intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), low pressure
areas (LPAs), ridge of high pressure area (HPA), and one tropical cyclone (TC) were the weather systems that affected the country’s climate for the month of April. Tropical Depression (TD) “Amang” (April 3-4), the first tropical cyclone for this year, did not affect any part of the country. The termination of the Northeast monsoon was declared last April 12, which signals the transition period towards the beginning of the southwest monsoon season characterized by warm and humid weather conditions.
Rainfall analysis for April, however, showed that Regions I, IV-A and NCR, and to a lesser degree
Region III and Region V, had experienced below to way below normal rainfall conditions. Likewise, the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) and most parts of Region X had also experienced below normal conditions. The rest of the country had received near to above normal rainfall. This varying pattern of rainfall distribution suggests a manifestation of a weakening La Niña event.
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REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
Harvesting of late planted lowland second palay almost finished, drying and storing started. Good yield is anticipated except for the western part of the region, wherein poor yield is expected due to insufficient moisture during the critical stages of growth development.
REGION V (Bicol Region)
Harvesting of wet season corn is going on. Good yield is likely to happen in most parts of the region due to sufficient moisture experienced by the crops during its reproductive and maturing stage.
Land preparation of dry season corn is
favorable in the southern part of the region. REGION VI (Western Visayas)
Below normal rainfall amount received in most parts of the region will most likely to hinder farming activities, poor yield for the harvestable standing crops is expected.
REGION VII (Central Visayas) Farming activities may be hampered and poor yield for the harvestable standing crops is expected in the region, this is due to the below normal amount of rainfall received and will likely produce moisture stress to the crops.
REGION VIII (Eastern Visayas)
Sufficient moisture supply favors the harvestable early planted wet season corn in some areas of the region. Good yield will likely be produce. However, in the eastern part, the flooding brought by excessive rains may bring damage to the standing crops during its maturing stage and might produce poor yield.
Land preparation for dry season corn just started.
REGION IX (Zamboanga Peninsula)
Sufficient rainfall amount received for the month is favorable for all farming activities to be done, most especially in the northern part of the region.
REGION X (Northern Mindanao)
The below normal rainfall conditions experienced in the region may hamper all farming activities, due to less moisture supply.
REGION XI (Davao Region)
Sufficient moisture needed for farming activities seems favorable, due to ample amount of rainfall received in the region.
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
Below normal rainfall amount received during the month may hinder any farming activities needed.
REGION XIII (CARAGA)
Harvesting of early planted wet season corn is going on. Above normal rainfall received in the region most especially in the northern and eastern part might potentially damage harvestable standing crops. Some flooding experienced by the crops during its maturity and ripening stages may produce poor yield as expected. However, the rest of the region might produce good yield.
Land preparation for dry season corn is favorable, due to sufficient moisture supply available during the month.
ARMM ((Autonomous reg. of Muslim Mindanao) Harvesting of early planted wet season corn just started and good yield is expected due to sufficient moisture supply during its critical
stages of development.
For Particulars, please contact:
Thelma A. Cinco
Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS) Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
PAGASA-DOST Telefax No.: 434-58-82
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Table 1.0 Cumulative Yield Moisture Indices for Early Planted Wet Season Corn (February 2011 – April 2011) in Millimeters and Percentile Rank.
STATIONS FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL
YMI %RANK YMI %RANK YMI %RANK
Region III (Central Luzon)
Baler 11 4 190 21 353 25
Casiguran 57 38 412 83 701 85
Region IV-A (CALABARZON)
Alabat 261 88 603 79 618 87
Ambulong 0 2 35 87 42 40
Infanta 173 73 679 83 787 83
Tayabas 47 56 265 87 352 81
Region V (Bicol Reg.)
Daet 401 96 846 71 907 92
Legaspi 52 19 574 81 663 81
Masbate 54 58 507 62 571 94
Virac 73 60 473 85 518 85
Region VIII (Eastern Visayas)
Catarman 332 90 1925 67 2130 98
Catbalogan 88 50 953 54 1083 94
Tacloban 196 73 1534 75 1642 98
Region XIII (CARAGA)
Butuan 333 96 687 73 740 96
Hinatuan 732 94 1639 94 1883 94
Surigao 639 90 1940 83 2191 98
ARMM(Autonomous Region of
Muslim Mindanao)
Cotabato 138 96 370 73 427 85
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Table 2.0 Yield Moisture Indices for Dry Season Corn (April-June 2011) in Millimeters and Percentile Rank.
STATIONS APRIL MAY JUNE
YMI %RANK YMI %RANK YMI %RANK
Region IV-A (CALABARZON)
Infanta 94 48
Region V (Bicol Reg.)
Daet 53 50
Legaspi 77 52
Virac 39 38
Region VIII (Eastern Visayas)
Catarman 178 88
Region XIII (CARAGA)
Hinatuan 212 58
Surigao 218 85
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Table 3.0 Decadal and Cumulative Decadal Rainfall (Actual and Percent of Normal) for the month of APRIL 2011
REGION
DECADE ACTUAL
April
% Normal
of Actual
CUMULATIVE
Jan- Apr
% Normal
Cumulative
R01
Ilocos Region
10 4.2 43 69.6 158
11 3.7 24 73.4 124
12 13.7 69 87.1 110
CAR CAR
10 5.0 33 156.8 158
11 21.0 111 177.9 151
12 8.3 39 186.1 133
R02 Cagayan Valley
10 17.8 52 374.0 121
11 83.0 259 457.1 134
12 24.5 82 481.6 129
R03 Central Luzon
10 13.6 40 232.3 125
11 28.8 113 261.1 123
12 16.6 53 277.6 114
R04-A CALABARZON
10 12.7 38 572.3 156
11 24.0 78 596.3 150
12 28.1 98 624.5 146
R04-B MIMAROPA
10 6.5 61 209.5 247
11 21.1 175 230.6 238
12 12.5 60 243.1 206
NCR NCR
10 3.0 27 195.9 234
11 2.5 27 198.4 213
12 3.7 22 202.1 185
R05 Bicol Region
10 17.5 36 1112.7 186
11 31.9 84 1144.6 180
12 46.5 132 1191.0 178
R06 Western Visayas
10 0.3 2 446.0 285
11 16.6 100 462.6 267
12 5.2 18 467.8 232
R07 Central Visayas
10 2.0 12 685.2 278
11 14.5 83 699.7 265
12 14.8 62 714.5 248
R08 Eastern Visayas
10 15.9 35 2380.1 324
11 69.7 207 2449.8 319
12 87.3 200 2537.1 313
R09 Western Mindanao
10 2.4 11 894.4 384
11 10.1 27 904.5 335
12 62.7 243 967.2 327
R10 Northern Mindanao
10 20.4 67 743.1 219
11 6.9 20 750.0 201
12 46.4 131 796.4 195
R11 Davao Region
10 81.8 175 1053.9 182
11 39.6 73 1093.5 173
12 77.1 139 1170.6 170
R12 SOCCSKSARGEN
10 28.2 134 404.3 187
11 27.3 73 431.7 170
12 20.8 65 452.5 158
R13 CARAGA
10 27.4 41 2306.9 208
11 58.9 86 2365.8 201
12 113.4 179 2479.1 200
ARMM
10 16.1 87 598.9 318
11 16.6 48 615.5 276
12 22.5 76 638.0 252
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Fig 1.0 Actual Cumulative Rainfall During the Passage of Tropical Depression “AMANG”
(April 03-04, 2011)
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A. Decade 1 – April 01-10, 2011 B. Decade 2 – April 11-20, 2011 C. Decade 3 –April 21-30, 2011
Fig 2 Ten Days Actual Rainfall Distribution in the Philippines for the month of APRIL 2011
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B. Actual rainfall (mm) C. Percent of Normal Rainfall ( % ) A. Normal Rainfall (mm)
Fig 3 Rainfall in the Philippines for the month of APRIL 2011
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Fig. 4.0 Comparison of Normal Rainfall and Potential Evapotranspiration with the Actual Monthly Rainfall at Laoag, Baguio, Dagupan, Basco, Aparri and Tuguegarao.
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Fig. 4.a. Comparison of Normal Rainfall and Potential Evapotranspiration with the Actual Monthly Rainfall at Iba, Muñoz, Science Garden, Ambulong, Calapan and Port Area. 12
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S. Garden
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M uñoz
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Calapan
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Iba
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Fig. 4.b. Comparison of Normal Rainfall and Potential Evapotranspiration with the Actual Monthly Rainfal at Puerto Princesa, Casiguran, Infanta, Alabat, Daet
and Legaspi
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Alabat
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Infanta
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Fig.4.c. Comparison of Normal Rainfall and Potential Evapotranspiration with the Actual Monthly Rainfall at Cuyo, Iloilo, Dumaguete, Masbate, Mactan and Tacloban.
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Fig 4.d. Comparison of Normal Rainfall and Potential Evapotranspiration with the Actual Monthly Rainfall at Catarman, Cagayan de Oro, Davao, Dipolog, Zamboanga and General Santos.
Vao day nghe bai nay di ban http://thucaithoi.xlphp.net Vao day nghe bai nay di
ban http://thucaithoi.xlphp.net Data at Catarman, Cagayan de Oro, Davao, Dipolog, Zamboanga and General
Santos,
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Gen. Santos
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