U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative...

U.S. Dairy OutlookCarolyn LiebrandDairy Program, AMS/USDAFebruary 22, 2019

Source: NASS/USDA and WAOB/USDA

Source: NASS/USDA for Butterfat; AMS/USDA FMMO data for NFS

Sources: NASS/USDA; AMS/USDA; FSA/USDA

All-Milk Price, Feed Cost, and Income Over Feed Cost

Sources: ERS/USDA

Milk Production Costs and Returns

Source: NASS/USDA

Sources: NASS/USDA; AMS/USDA

U.S. Cow Slaughter Under Federal Inspection

Source: AMS/USDA(Martin Luther King Holiday in week ending 1/26/2019; it fell in the prior week 2018)

Source: NASS/USDAPrices for National, Live-Equivalent, Cutter, 90% lean, 500 lbsand up

(Proxy)

Sources: NASS/USDA; WAOB/USDA

U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018

Rank StateMilk

productionCummulative

Share2018: 2017

Billion pounds

Percent of U.S.

Percent Change

1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 18.6 1.6 2 WISCONSIN 30.6 32.6 0.8 3 IDAHO 15.0 39.6 2.9 4 NEW YORK 14.9 46.4 (0.1) 5 TEXAS 12.9 52.3 6.6 6 MICHIGAN 11.2 57.5 (0.6) 7 PENNSYLVANIA 10.7 62.4 (2.3) 8 MINNESOTA 9.9 66.9 0.1 9 NEW MEXICO 8.3 70.7 0.8

10 WASHINGTON 6.7 73.8 3.2 Source: NASS/USDA

U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018, continued

Rank StateMilk

productionCummulative

Share2018: 2017

Billion pounds

Percent of U.S.

Percent Change

11 OHIO 5.4 76.3 (2.6) 12 IOWA 5.2 78.7 0.7 13 ARIZONA 5.0 81.0 0.3 14 COLORADO 4.6 83.1 8.8 15 INDIANA 4.2 85.1 (1.2) 16 KANSAS 3.7 86.8 6.1 17 S. DAKOTA 2.7 88.0 3.3 18 VERMONT 2.7 89.2 (1.8) 19 OREGON 2.5 90.4 0.1 20 FLORIDA 2.4 91.5 (4.7)

Source: NASS/USDA

Sources: ERS/USDA; WAOB/USDA

Domestic Commercial Disappearance

Commercial Exports

Sources: ERS/USDA

Commercial Exports

Sources: ERS/USDA

Commercial Exports

Sources: ERS/USDA

Commercial Exports

Commercial Ending Stocks

Sources: NASS/USDA (as compiled by ERS); WAOB/USDA

Sources: NASS/USDA (as compiled by ERS)

Sources: Sources: NASS/USDA (as compiled by ERS)

Sources: NASS/USDA (as compiled by ERS)

“CCC Donations”• Non-zero in WASDE report in 2019

• Trade mitigation / CCC funds300 million pounds milk-fat basis 2019200 million pounds skim-solids basis 2019

• Separate from Section 32-funded purchasesFood donation programsIncluded in domestic commercial disappearance2018 1st fluid milk purchase for donation to food banks

Source: AMS/USDA

Long-term projections• Starting point = short-term forecasts based on

October 11, 2018 (WASDE)

• Useful for impact analyses

• Total milk production +1.4% annual average

• Exports to increase +2% milk-fat and +3% skim-solids bases ave/year, 2020-2028

• Prices to increase by 2028: Butter prices + $0.33/lbNDM prices + $0.24/lbCheese prices + $0.13/lbWhey prices +$0.01/lbAll-milk price + $2.25/cwt

LinksAdditional information about the dairy forecast and current market

information:

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Situation and Outlook https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/

Dairy: World Markets and Tradehttps://www.fas.usda.gov/data/dairy-world-markets-and-trade

Dairy Program/Agricultural Marketing Servicehttps://www.ams.usda.gov/about-ams/programs-offices/dairy-program

Current Dairy Market News:https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/dairy

Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee--Dairy:

Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOBJerry Cessna, ERSPaul Kiendl, FASCarolyn Liebrand, AMSMilton Madison, FPAC

Dairy Program Economic Analysis Staff:

Dr. Roger CryanDr. Georgi GabrielyanCarolyn LiebrandClifford Carman Ad isor

TEAM USDA

Carolyn.Liebrand@usda.gov

Thank You

World milk day

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