U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative...

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Transcript of U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative...

Page 1: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …
Page 2: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

U.S. Dairy OutlookCarolyn LiebrandDairy Program, AMS/USDAFebruary 22, 2019

Page 3: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …
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Page 4: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Source: NASS/USDA and WAOB/USDA

Page 5: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Source: NASS/USDA and WAOB/USDA

Page 6: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

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Page 7: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Source: NASS/USDA for Butterfat; AMS/USDA FMMO data for NFS

Page 8: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: NASS/USDA; AMS/USDA; FSA/USDA

All-Milk Price, Feed Cost, and Income Over Feed Cost

Page 9: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: ERS/USDA

Milk Production Costs and Returns

Page 10: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Source: NASS/USDA

Page 11: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: NASS/USDA; AMS/USDA

Page 12: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

U.S. Cow Slaughter Under Federal Inspection

Source: AMS/USDA(Martin Luther King Holiday in week ending 1/26/2019; it fell in the prior week 2018)

Page 13: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Source: NASS/USDAPrices for National, Live-Equivalent, Cutter, 90% lean, 500 lbsand up

(Proxy)

Page 14: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: NASS/USDA; WAOB/USDA

Page 15: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: NASS/USDA; WAOB/USDA

Page 16: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018

Rank StateMilk

productionCummulative

Share2018: 2017

Billion pounds

Percent of U.S.

Percent Change

1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 18.6 1.6 2 WISCONSIN 30.6 32.6 0.8 3 IDAHO 15.0 39.6 2.9 4 NEW YORK 14.9 46.4 (0.1) 5 TEXAS 12.9 52.3 6.6 6 MICHIGAN 11.2 57.5 (0.6) 7 PENNSYLVANIA 10.7 62.4 (2.3) 8 MINNESOTA 9.9 66.9 0.1 9 NEW MEXICO 8.3 70.7 0.8

10 WASHINGTON 6.7 73.8 3.2 Source: NASS/USDA

Page 17: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018, continued

Rank StateMilk

productionCummulative

Share2018: 2017

Billion pounds

Percent of U.S.

Percent Change

11 OHIO 5.4 76.3 (2.6) 12 IOWA 5.2 78.7 0.7 13 ARIZONA 5.0 81.0 0.3 14 COLORADO 4.6 83.1 8.8 15 INDIANA 4.2 85.1 (1.2) 16 KANSAS 3.7 86.8 6.1 17 S. DAKOTA 2.7 88.0 3.3 18 VERMONT 2.7 89.2 (1.8) 19 OREGON 2.5 90.4 0.1 20 FLORIDA 2.4 91.5 (4.7)

Source: NASS/USDA

Page 18: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: ERS/USDA; WAOB/USDA

Domestic Commercial Disappearance

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Commercial Exports

Sources: ERS/USDA

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Commercial Exports

Sources: ERS/USDA

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Commercial Exports

Sources: ERS/USDA

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Commercial Exports

Sources: ERS/USDA; WAOB/USDA

Page 23: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: ERS/USDA; WAOB/USDA

Page 24: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: ERS/USDA; WAOB/USDA

Page 25: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: ERS/USDA; WAOB/USDA

Page 26: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: ERS/USDA; WAOB/USDA

Page 27: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Commercial Ending Stocks

Sources: ERS/USDA; WAOB/USDA

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Sources: NASS/USDA (as compiled by ERS); WAOB/USDA

Page 29: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: NASS/USDA (as compiled by ERS)

Page 30: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: Sources: NASS/USDA (as compiled by ERS)

Page 31: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: Sources: NASS/USDA (as compiled by ERS)

Page 32: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: Sources: NASS/USDA (as compiled by ERS)

Page 33: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: Sources: NASS/USDA (as compiled by ERS)

Page 34: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: Sources: NASS/USDA (as compiled by ERS)

Page 35: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Sources: NASS/USDA (as compiled by ERS)

Page 36: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

“CCC Donations”• Non-zero in WASDE report in 2019

• Trade mitigation / CCC funds300 million pounds milk-fat basis 2019200 million pounds skim-solids basis 2019

• Separate from Section 32-funded purchasesFood donation programsIncluded in domestic commercial disappearance2018 1st fluid milk purchase for donation to food banks

Page 37: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Source: AMS/USDA

Page 38: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Source: AMS/USDA

Page 39: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Source: AMS/USDA

Page 40: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Source: AMS/USDA

Page 41: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Source: AMS/USDA

Page 42: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Long-term projections• Starting point = short-term forecasts based on

October 11, 2018 (WASDE)

• Useful for impact analyses

• Total milk production +1.4% annual average

• Exports to increase +2% milk-fat and +3% skim-solids bases ave/year, 2020-2028

• Prices to increase by 2028: Butter prices + $0.33/lbNDM prices + $0.24/lbCheese prices + $0.13/lbWhey prices +$0.01/lbAll-milk price + $2.25/cwt

Page 43: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

LinksAdditional information about the dairy forecast and current market

information:

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm

Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Situation and Outlook https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/

Dairy: World Markets and Tradehttps://www.fas.usda.gov/data/dairy-world-markets-and-trade

Dairy Program/Agricultural Marketing Servicehttps://www.ams.usda.gov/about-ams/programs-offices/dairy-program

Current Dairy Market News:https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/dairy

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm
https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/
https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/dairy-world-markets-and-trade
https://www.ams.usda.gov/about-ams/programs-offices/dairy-program
https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/dairy
Page 44: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee--Dairy:

Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOBJerry Cessna, ERSPaul Kiendl, FASCarolyn Liebrand, AMSMilton Madison, FPAC

Dairy Program Economic Analysis Staff:

Dr. Roger CryanDr. Georgi GabrielyanCarolyn LiebrandClifford Carman Ad isor

TEAM USDA

Page 45: U.S. Dairy Outlook · U.S. Milk Production by State, 2018 Rank State Milk production Cummulative Share 2018: 2017 Billion pounds Percent of U.S. Percent Change 1 CALIFORNIA 40.4 …

[email protected]

Thank You

World milk day


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