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UNIDO - Technology Foresight for Practitioners - Training course, 6-10 October 2003, Prague
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FORESIGHT TOOLS –FORESIGHT TOOLS –SCENARIOSCENARIO PLANNINGPLANNINGFORESIGHT TOOLS –FORESIGHT TOOLS –SCENARIOSCENARIO PLANNINGPLANNING
Ian Miles IoIRUniversity of ManchesterIan.Miles@man.ac.uk http://les1.man.ac.uk/cric/Ian_Miles
UNIDO - Technology Foresight for Practitioners - Training course, 6-10 October 2003, Prague
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Outline:Outline:What are Scenarios?Why Use them?Varieties of ScenariosWays of Producing ScenariosUsing Scenarios in Scenario Planning
and Foresight
UNIDO - Technology Foresight for Practitioners - Training course, 6-10 October 2003, Prague
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What are scenarios? What are scenarios? Many definitions – Kahn, Schwartz, etc.
Two main emphases:
IMAGE OF THE FUTURE – Description(s) of a future set of circumstances, portrait(s) of the state of affairs. “Static”. Date or period may be more or less tightly specified, or image tied to a particular set of developments).
FUTURE HISTORY – Description of a future course of events, sequence
of developments. “Dynamic”,, often highlighting key events, decisions, or turning points
UNIDO - Technology Foresight for Practitioners - Training course, 6-10 October 2003, Prague
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Multiple scenario analysisMultiple scenario analysis
Common to use 3 or more scenarios: To illustrate alternatives, indicate a range of
plausible developments (not one inevitable future path).
To stimulate reflection on underlying assumptions. To assess robustness of strategies. To give insight into contexts and outcomes
(intended or otherwise) under which actions may be undertaken, events may happen, objectives may be realised.
To help identify turning points, key decisions, indicators, early warnings of change.
UNIDO - Technology Foresight for Practitioners - Training course, 6-10 October 2003, Prague
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Uses of ScenariosUses of Scenarios
Many Uses including: Scenario Analysis as Methodological Tool to structure work, ensure robustness of strategies,
stimulate and challenge informants. Scenario Workshops as Process Tools to allow for exchange of views and visions, provoke and
legitimate thinking “out of box” (routine paths), etc. Scenario Reports as Products for synthesis and presentation of results – to integrate
and check coherence of outputs, to communicate and illustrate major results and conclusions.
UNIDO - Technology Foresight for Practitioners - Training course, 6-10 October 2003, Prague
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Products (codified outputs) reports, books, videos. Discursive accounts, summaries,
action lists and priorities. Inputs to decision making. Scenarios: to integrate diverse studies, concretise and
communicate visions; suggest action points and key indicators
Process (embodied knowledge, networks, actions) forging and enriching networks, developing knowledge about
knowledge. Establishing and empowering constituencies for action. Scenario analysis: to recruit support, integrate diverse viewpoints; share & fuse visions, provide focus for joint work.
The big question: What sort of mix?
Scenarios as Product and Process Scenarios as Product and Process
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The Numbers GameThe Numbers Game One scenario - a presentational device, to illustrate a
particular future. (E.g. a preferred or most likely state) Several scenario vignettes - to indicate different
facets of essentially the same future - illustration, a tool for elaborating ideas, for exploring the consistency of different lines of thought.
Canonical variations – variations around a dominant set of trends.
Multiple scenario analysis - setting out alternative paths of development and their implications.
HOW MANY – depends on context. Usual rule of thumb – 3 or 4. But some work, e.g. Canadian studies, uses many more.
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Building ScenariosBuilding Scenarios
Clarifying Purposes, Audiences Identify Key DriversDevelop themes, “stories”Compare relevant elementsDevelop “sign posts”Check wildcards
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Two Stances for Scenario AnalysisTwo Stances for Scenario Analysis
Starting from the present (“exploratory”):
What next?What if?
Where to?
How to?
Starting from the future
(“normative”):
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Outward: The PrincipleOutward: The Principle
Trends, processes
Trends, processes
Events, strategies
Events, strategies
Course of events (future history)
Course of events (future history)
Outcome of events
(image of future)
Outcome of events
(image of future)
WorldviewWorldview
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Inward: The PrincipleInward: The Principle
Critical end-state (profile
of future)
Worldview
Outcome of events
(image of future)
Trends, processes
Events, strategies
Course of events (future history)
Critical event path
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A
B
C
Outward Scenarios – Common ApproachOutward Scenarios – Common Approach
A common framework for workshop and expert groups to systematically analyse “drivers and shapers”, and to group trends and events is STEEPV:
May also diverge according to worldviews or strategic alternatives
Pathways diverge
according to varying
Events/Trends Social
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Political
Values
UNIDO - Technology Foresight for Practitioners - Training course, 6-10 October 2003, Prague
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• May select particularly interesting trends, uncertainties – e.g. where high importance and high uncertainty. Various methods. 2x2 common result.
May use standard structure and process drivers (etc) through these. E.g. IAF adaptation of GBN scenarios for workshops: BEST GUESS, best intelligence, extrapolation, most likely; HARD TIMES (major, but not “over the cliff” challenges); Improvement/ Paradigm shift 1; Visionary/Paradigm shift 2
• May select particularly interesting trends, uncertainties – e.g. where high importance and high uncertainty. Various methods. 2x2 common result.
May use standard structure and process drivers (etc) through these. E.g. IAF adaptation of GBN scenarios for workshops: BEST GUESS, best intelligence, extrapolation, most likely; HARD TIMES (major, but not “over the cliff” challenges); Improvement/ Paradigm shift 1; Visionary/Paradigm shift 2
Choosing Outward Scenarios
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Profile 1
Profile 3
Profile 2
Profile 4
High Growth
Low Growth
Will world economic
development mean:
Inward Scenarios – Desk-based ExampleInward Scenarios – Desk-based Example
A step on from IAF/GBN: select futures of particular interest to users - not necessarily desirable ones :
thus a PROFILE approach, with parameters as outcomes, not drivers or trends What would
it be like?
How do we get there?
WorldviewsLow Equality
High Equality
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Inward Scenarios - Workshop ExampleInward Scenarios - Workshop Example
A desirable futures of particular interest to users - the SUCCESS SCENARIO (uses a PROFILE approach, but not usually multiple scenario analysis other than at outset)
Background
inputs (inc
framework
scenarios, SWOT,
etc)Specification
of feasible,
desirable
future
Indicators of
realisation
and progress
Actions and
responsible
parties
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Scenario Generation & Analysis -
Methods
Scenario Generation & Analysis -
Methods Genius forecasts Expert Groups, deskwork, with systematic tools Surveys, clustering articulated viewpoints Workshops
.. Beginning to see computer support in several ways inc. (a) modelling (b) group support (c) viewpoint analysis
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“Ups” and “Downs” of Scenario Generation Methods
“Ups” and “Downs” of Scenario Generation Methods
Developed using inputs from large constituency (usually including, if not
exclusively) “users”.
Small constituency of “experts” develop for large user community.
Developed in workshop, etc., involving at least some users.
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Examples of “Ups” and “Downs”Examples of “Ups” and “Downs”
Expert group analysis using “what if” approaches, using worldviews/different perspectives, using end-state profiles…
Exploratory ………. SCENARIO WORKSHOPS …….Normative
Analysis of survey results to define different expectations
Various combinations of approaches…
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Multiple Outward Scenarios clustered from Survey Responses
Multiple Outward Scenarios clustered from Survey Responses
IT Futures SurveyedIT Futures Surveyed
Survey asked a series of questions about how far IT
applications and implications would have developed over
next 10, 20 years. Results factor analysed to
obtain simplified structure First two components led
to four scenarios, with numerical estimates, etc.
Pace of Change: Faster
Slower
Results of Change more:Negative Positive
1 2
3 4
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Scenarios, derived from different diagnoses of present situation
Desk-Based Outward Scenarios, derived from
different diagnoses of present situation
Paperless Society
Paperless Society
Where are we now?
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
How much change to expect; how
similar to present...
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Workshop-based Inwards ScenarioWorkshop-based Inwards Scenario
Maria - Road
Warrior
Dimitrious - Digital
Me
Carmen - Traffic &
Commerce
Annette & Solomon - Social
Learning
REQUIREMENTS: Sociopolitical
Business & Industrial Models Technology ………
IPTS/ISTAG AmbienceIPTS/ISTAG
Ambience
Potential Functionality of AmI
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Planning Process
Is there a specific issue – or is this general strategic intelligence?
Planning team, drawing on relevant expertise (within and outside organisation)
Embedding scenario work, fostering “ownership” Legitimate scenario activity as real work Undermining business-as-usual assumptions,
confronting potential challenges, testing strategies Forging groups to develop new approaches Creating frameworks for more quantitative analysis
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Presentation and communicationPresentation and communication
HISTORIES “Flow charts” Trend analysis Signposts (indicators and
events – useful for scanning) Narratives (press reports;
historian’s reflections…) Strategy games – good for
analysis of options, plans…
IMAGES Comparative Tables
Charts Narratives (press stories;
diaries, vignettes …) portrait of organisation/
market/ actors... policy outcomes
How to deal with wildcards??
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Scenario Assessment ~ how far are the scenarios/outputs:
Scenario Assessment ~ how far are the scenarios/outputs:
Not too numerous,detailed or ambiguous – expressed in terms relevant to user
capabilities and interests
Reflect the range of potential future conditions, challenges, for the topic/users
Stretch thinking, include surprises
Confront the difficulty, ambiguity, and significance of the topic; Scope for thinking the unthinkable, transgressing boundaries,
while not triggering kneejerk controversy
Useful
Robust (not Accurate as such)
Novel/ Stimulating
Provocative/ Challenging
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Conclusions :Conclusions :
Scenarios are potentially very useful, but have to be appropriate to purposes, audience, etc
Can make product and/or process contributions to Foresight and planning – and to sharing visions & plans.
A combination of expertise and craft – not magic, gurus not necessary, but require preparation, training.
Capable of being produced in many different ways. There may be a best way or at least a best set of ways for a
given situation, but there is no one all-purpose best way. Sometimes fun to produce; sometimes fun to read, usually
hard work to create (OK); often hard work to use (this is not OK)!
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End of PresentationEnd of Presentation
Thanks for attention – questions welcome