Trade offs in large scale and small scale renewablescale ...Energy Units David MacKay, Sustainable...

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Trade offs in large scale and small scale renewablescale renewable energy solutionsAli Shakouri Baskin School of Engineering

energy solutionsBaskin School of EngineeringUniversity of California Santa Cruz

A k l d t ONRAcknowledgement: ONR, DARPA, AFOSR, CEA, NSF, DOE/EFRC, NASA/UCSC, CITRIS

CenSEPS Workshop: The Road to a 100% Renewable Energy System Milpitas, CA; 1 August 2011

A. Shakouri 8/1/2011

World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type 1990-2035 13TW 2050: 25 30TWFuel Type 1990 2035 13TW 2050: 25-30TW

1 Quad = 1.055 x 1018J

2US Department of Energy; Energy Information Administration (2010)

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100% Renewable Energies by 2050A scenarioA scenario

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WWF International, Ecofys, & Office for Metropolitan Architecture (2011)

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Felix’s forecasts of US energy consumption

Nuclear

consumption in year 2000 (early 1970’s)

Natural gas

Vaclav Smil,Coal

Oil

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,Energy at the Crossroads, 2005

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All Renewables Are Diffuse

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A. Shakouri 8/1/2011

Energy Units

6David MacKay, Sustainable Energy –Without the Hot Air

David MacKay Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air

A. Shakouri 8/1/2011Efficiency vs. Size (Conventional Engines)

7Contradiction Chains, Darrell Mann, Univ. of Bath, UK

A. Shakouri 8/1/2011Wind Turbine Evolution

20092009 average turbine size in US: 1.74MW

Boeing 747 Airbus A380

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Trend toward bigger turbine sizesCA-Denmark Summer Program 2008; Helge Aagaard Madsen, DTU Riso

A. Shakouri 8/1/2011

Installed project costs are on the rise after a long period of decline.rise after a long period of decline.

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2009 Wind Technologies Market Report, US Department of Energy

A. Shakouri 8/1/2011Learning Curves

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“Learning by Doing” cost reductions versus installed capacity for various electricity generating technologies (IEA, 2000)

A. Shakouri 8/1/2011Wind Turbine Installation

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A. Shakouri 8/1/2011Intermittency of Renewables

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A. Shakouri 8/1/2011

C t iCapturing Solar Energy in space(Peter Glaser et al., 1970s)( )

Global SuperconductingTransmission GridTransmission Grid(Buckminster Fuller,1970s)

Visionary Technology Systems that could Enable a Gl b l E P d b R bl E

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Global Economy Powered by Renewable Energy.Marty Hoffert

A. Shakouri 8/1/2011Desertec

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ffi i 31%Energy Use = 99 2 Quad = 105 EJ → Power ~3.3 TW

US Energy Flow 2008

RejectedEnergy 61%

1.3TW

efficiency ~31% RejectedEnergy 58%

1.3TW

efficiency ~32%Nucl 8 45

Energy Use 99.2 Quad 105 EJ → Power 3.3 TW

Solar 0.09Electricity Generation efficiency 32%

Hydro 2.45

Nucl. 8.45

Wind 0.51

Geo R id ti l11.48

Generation39.97

Natural Gas 23.84

Geo 0.35 Residential

Commercial8.58

Coal22.42

Biomass Industrial

23.94

25%Petroleum37.13

Biomass 3.88

27.86

15http://eed.llnl.gov/flow

20%TransportationQuads

A. Shakouri 8/1/2011US Energy Flow 1950

EnergySources

Energy Consumption

Hydroelectric

Electrical Generation 4.0

RejectedEnergy 49%

efficiency~25%Natural Gas 6.1

Hydroelectric0.4

Residential & Commercial

Coal13.6

Industrial

26%Petroleum11.9

Total: 33.9 Quad → 1.13TWPopulation: 161M

Transportation

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Population: 161M

Lawrence Livermore National Lab., http://eed.llnl.gov/flow

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Denmark: From Centralized to Decentralized Power ProductionDecentralized Power Production

17A.G. Holmsgaard

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Electricity- Hot Water Cogeneration

Sun Irradiation

(optional: Tracking incident angle)80%

100%

W/W

]

total Z=0.001 total Z=0.003heat Z=0.001 heat Z=0.003elec Z=0.001 elec Z=0.003pump Z=0.001 pump Z=0.003

Total Efficiency(optional: Tracking incident angle)

Concentrator e g Fresnel lens

Tank

<80oC40%

60%

y ef

ficie

ncy [

W

Hot Water

0~60oC

80oCe.g. Fresnel lens

TE

Water cooling(Heat sink)water reservoir

Hot water supplyAir conditioning

0%

20%

Ove

rall e

nerg

Electricity

Pumping power0~60oC ( )

Pump0~60oC-40%

-20%

1 10 100 1000

Pumping power

Thermoelectric Device

1 10 100 1000Concentrate ratio (C>1)

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K. Yazawa, A. Shakouri, "System optimization of hot water concentrated solar thermoelectric generation,“ Proc. Thermal Issues in Emerging Technologies (ThETA 3), Dec 19-22, Cairo, Egypt, pp. 283-290, 2010.

A. Shakouri 8/1/2011CO2e/ Person

P l ti

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Population

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Large Scale vs. Small Scale Renewable Energy Solutions?gy• Renewable energies are dilute (distributed

generation makes sense)generation makes sense)• Large scale energy storage is a key

challengechallenge• There are opportunities for local co-

generation and the optimization of the energy system

• Solutions for developed and developing countries could be different

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