T I C A D S e m i n a r S e r i e s 4 t h S e m i n a r

Land Use Planning & Spatial Development for Smart Growth in African Cities

January 22nd, 2016

Ede Ijjasz-VasquezSenior DirectorSocial, Urban, Rural & ResilienceThe World Bank

T h i s p r e s e n t a t i o n i s b a s e d o n r e s e a r c h u n d e r t h e s p a t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t o f A f r i c a n c i t i e s , f i n a n c e d b y U K D F I D

Fatma is one of many people living in a city To be close to opportunities

2

But their homes are in slums With access to few jobs and services

3

To harness shared prosperityThey need better jobs and services

4

Africa needs to build Cities that work

Africa’s urban population472 million today

659 million by 2025Adding another Nigeria

7

7

8

1 billion by 2040Double in 25

years

8

160 million additional jobs needed in Africa by 2030

Africa has the opportunityTo get urbanization right

Source: WDI (2014); U.N. World Urbanization Prospects 2014; Maddison Project.

Cities are growing, but at lower income levels

Urbanization at 40%

Latin America Caribbean

1950

1,860

Middle East North Africa1968

1,806

Sub-Saharan Africa2013

1,018

GDP per capita (2005 US$)

3,617

East Asia Pacific 1994

Cities are growing, but manufacturing is declining

Manufacturingvalue added,

% of GDP

Sub-Saharan Africa

Urbanization rate, %0 50

201975

2013

Cities are growing, but the population is sprawling

300

200

100

01 5 10 15 20

300

200

100

01 5 10 15 20

Dar es Salaam

1988

Source: based on village level census data, NBS 2002 & 2012Source: Bertaud (2002)

Km from Central Business District

Densi

ty (

peopl

e/hecta

re)

Bangkok 1988

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

2002

Cities are growing, but the population is sprawling

300

200

100

01 5 10 15 20

300

200

100

01 5 10 15 20

Dar es Salaam

Source: based on village level census data, NBS 2002 & 2012Source: Bertaud (2002)

Km from Central Business District

Densi

ty (

peopl

e/hecta

re)

Bangkok 1988

14

Dar es Salaam 2012

Km from Central Business District

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Cities are growing, but the population is sprawling

Source: Bertaud (2002) Source: based on village level census data, NBS 2002 & 2012

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Bangkok 1988

Densi

ty (

peopl

e/hecta

re)

Densi

ty (

peopl

e/hecta

re)

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1819 20

2012

Cities are growing, but the population is sprawling

300

200

100

01 5 10 15 20

300

200

100

01 5 10 15 20

Dar es Salaam

Source: based on village level census data, NBS 2002 & 2012Source: Bertaud (2002)

Km from Central Business District

Densi

ty (

peopl

e/hecta

re)

Bangkok 1988

2012

Africa at 2 am: Satellite data reveals lack of infrastructure density

Africa’s mega cities need mega investments

Source: World Bank calculations.

MaputoLusaka

Kigali

KampalaAddis Ababa

AbidjanNairobi

KinshasaLagos

Rio de Janeiro

ParisBarcelona

Durban

Dar es Salaam

Dakar

Light (infrastructure)-to-population

ratio

Population Size

Africa by day: Satellite data identifies land use

Residential Dense Residential SparseResidential Shanty

Commercial/Industrial

Housing: informal settlements and low affordability

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Slum Dwellers(% of pop, 2015)

Source: UN (2014). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision.

70% of Africa’s urban population live in informal settlements. Over half population are in slums.

KGALI

Commercial and industrial land is missing in the city center

Residential shanty Residential non-shanty Industrial/commercial

Addis AbabaDar es Salaam

Source: World Bank calculations (2015), EO World.

23%Ho Chi Minh

Nairobi5.9%

Addis Ababa

1.1% Kigali0.9%

Share of industrial and commercial land (as % of total land)

Where are the jobs in the city?

Jobs: informality and low productivity

Currently, 60% of urban jobs in Africa are informal, mostly in household enterprise sector, which usually have low productivity.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Survivalists Top-performersPetty Trading Manufacturing Transport and construction Wholesale/Retail Services

Source: Grimm, Michael, Peter Knorringa, and Jann Lay. "Constrained gazelles: High potentials in West Africa’s informal economy." World Development 40.7 (2012): 1352-1368.

% of jobs by sector in low-performance vs. high-performance businesses

22

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Kigali Kampala Lusaka

Proportion of firms with less than 5 employees

Jobs: firms are small

Source: Economic censuses of Rwanda, Uganda and Zambia. 23

In Nairobi, 70% walk or take the matatu to work…

Source: JICA Personal Travel Survey (2013)

…limiting access to opportunities

How do people get to their jobs?

28% Matatu 14%

% of jobs within 60 minutes

42% Walk 8%

How much do people pay to get to their jobs?

Percentage of household budget on transport2 trips/day

Source: Kumar and Barrett (2008)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Average Poorest quintile

Housing

Jobs

The Solution: Africa needs to build cities that work

Transport/ Infrastructure

Coordinated actions needed in three areas for productivity and livability.

Infrastructure: need policy interventions at all levels

National resources

• Improve intergovernmental transfers to city governments for infrastructure investment

Regional resources

• Expand revenue assignments for city governments

• Simplify the systems for local revenues

• Expand autonomy of city governments in setting tax levels and administering revenues

City governments and urban service

delivery agencies

• Institutional reform to strengthen city governments and service utilities to address service-delivery and urban planning and management challenges

• Develop metropolitan government arrangements for rapidly expanding mega-cities.

Improving local governments’ own source revenues:The case of Arusha, Tanzania

Issues:• Transfers as main revenue

source, suffering from delays and constraints

Actions:• Helping Arusha build Local

Government Revenue Collection Information System (LGCRIS)

Achievements: • City’s own source revenue

collection increased by 76% in 15 months

• Self-financed 90% of annual development projects in city

Reference: “The Arusha Experience: Improving Local Government’s Own Source Revenues.” Brochure available through Washington, DC: World Bank, 2015.

Key action areas

Improve city planning, building regulations, and access to land

Expand access to housing finance

Invest in and subsidize infrastructure and slum upgrading

Strengthen residential rental markets

1

2

3Strengthen local construction & building materials sectors; support private housing development

5

4

Drive access to low-cost formal housing increasingly down market

Provide direct support to

bottom 70% of the market

Core policy goals

Housing: policy goals and action areas

Informal settlement upgrading and improvement:The case of Nouakchott, Mauritania

Challenges:• Largest kebbe of 40,000

households with no/poor services

Actions:• Offered serviced plots nearby• Issued microcredit loans for

home improvement and compensation

Achievements: • Great improvements in housing

conditions with access to services• Created jobs and helped NGOs to

scale up the workReference: “Implementation Completion and Results Report no. ICR1359, Urban Development Project.” Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013.

Support small businesses

with potential to grow

Facilitate business

transition from non-tradable to

tradable

Improve business

environmentand reduce business

costs

Jobs: policy focuses and actions

Job-creation policies can help transform the realities.

Activities:• Labor-intensive public

investment (paving cobblestone streets) under the Bank-financed Urban Local Government Development Project (ULGDP)

Achievements: • Created more than 95,000

jobs, especially for woman, youth and the unemployed

• Encouraged creation of micro and small scale enterprises

Creating jobs through urban development projects: The case of Adigrat, Ethiopia

Reference: “Ethiopia Development Project Creates Jobs, Transforms Cities”, retrieved from World Bank Group website, http://go.worldbank.org/OYDNPDSMB0 Photo courtesy of MUDH, Ethiopia

Towards cities that work!

Housing

Jobs

Infrastructure

With coordinated actions in the three areas, cities of Africa will become engines of growth that are productive and livable.