TICAD Seminar Series 4 Seminar Land Use Planning &...
Transcript of TICAD Seminar Series 4 Seminar Land Use Planning &...
T I C A D S e m i n a r S e r i e s 4 t h S e m i n a r
Land Use Planning & Spatial Development for Smart Growth in African Cities
January 22nd, 2016
Ede Ijjasz-VasquezSenior DirectorSocial, Urban, Rural & ResilienceThe World Bank
T h i s p r e s e n t a t i o n i s b a s e d o n r e s e a r c h u n d e r t h e s p a t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t o f A f r i c a n c i t i e s , f i n a n c e d b y U K D F I D
Fatma is one of many people living in a city To be close to opportunities
2
But their homes are in slums With access to few jobs and services
3
To harness shared prosperityThey need better jobs and services
4
Africa needs to build Cities that work
Africa’s urban population472 million today
659 million by 2025Adding another Nigeria
7
7
8
1 billion by 2040Double in 25
years
8
160 million additional jobs needed in Africa by 2030
Africa has the opportunityTo get urbanization right
Source: WDI (2014); U.N. World Urbanization Prospects 2014; Maddison Project.
Cities are growing, but at lower income levels
Urbanization at 40%
Latin America Caribbean
1950
1,860
Middle East North Africa1968
1,806
Sub-Saharan Africa2013
1,018
GDP per capita (2005 US$)
3,617
East Asia Pacific 1994
Cities are growing, but manufacturing is declining
Manufacturingvalue added,
% of GDP
Sub-Saharan Africa
Urbanization rate, %0 50
201975
2013
Cities are growing, but the population is sprawling
300
200
100
01 5 10 15 20
300
200
100
01 5 10 15 20
Dar es Salaam
1988
Source: based on village level census data, NBS 2002 & 2012Source: Bertaud (2002)
Km from Central Business District
Densi
ty (
peopl
e/hecta
re)
Bangkok 1988
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
2002
Cities are growing, but the population is sprawling
300
200
100
01 5 10 15 20
300
200
100
01 5 10 15 20
Dar es Salaam
Source: based on village level census data, NBS 2002 & 2012Source: Bertaud (2002)
Km from Central Business District
Densi
ty (
peopl
e/hecta
re)
Bangkok 1988
14
Dar es Salaam 2012
Km from Central Business District
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Cities are growing, but the population is sprawling
Source: Bertaud (2002) Source: based on village level census data, NBS 2002 & 2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Bangkok 1988
Densi
ty (
peopl
e/hecta
re)
Densi
ty (
peopl
e/hecta
re)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1819 20
2012
Cities are growing, but the population is sprawling
300
200
100
01 5 10 15 20
300
200
100
01 5 10 15 20
Dar es Salaam
Source: based on village level census data, NBS 2002 & 2012Source: Bertaud (2002)
Km from Central Business District
Densi
ty (
peopl
e/hecta
re)
Bangkok 1988
2012
Africa at 2 am: Satellite data reveals lack of infrastructure density
Africa’s mega cities need mega investments
Source: World Bank calculations.
MaputoLusaka
Kigali
KampalaAddis Ababa
AbidjanNairobi
KinshasaLagos
Rio de Janeiro
ParisBarcelona
Durban
Dar es Salaam
Dakar
Light (infrastructure)-to-population
ratio
Population Size
Africa by day: Satellite data identifies land use
Residential Dense Residential SparseResidential Shanty
Commercial/Industrial
Housing: informal settlements and low affordability
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Slum Dwellers(% of pop, 2015)
Source: UN (2014). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision.
70% of Africa’s urban population live in informal settlements. Over half population are in slums.
KGALI
Commercial and industrial land is missing in the city center
Residential shanty Residential non-shanty Industrial/commercial
Addis AbabaDar es Salaam
Source: World Bank calculations (2015), EO World.
23%Ho Chi Minh
Nairobi5.9%
Addis Ababa
1.1% Kigali0.9%
Share of industrial and commercial land (as % of total land)
Where are the jobs in the city?
Jobs: informality and low productivity
Currently, 60% of urban jobs in Africa are informal, mostly in household enterprise sector, which usually have low productivity.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Survivalists Top-performersPetty Trading Manufacturing Transport and construction Wholesale/Retail Services
Source: Grimm, Michael, Peter Knorringa, and Jann Lay. "Constrained gazelles: High potentials in West Africa’s informal economy." World Development 40.7 (2012): 1352-1368.
% of jobs by sector in low-performance vs. high-performance businesses
22
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Kigali Kampala Lusaka
Proportion of firms with less than 5 employees
Jobs: firms are small
Source: Economic censuses of Rwanda, Uganda and Zambia. 23
In Nairobi, 70% walk or take the matatu to work…
Source: JICA Personal Travel Survey (2013)
…limiting access to opportunities
How do people get to their jobs?
28% Matatu 14%
% of jobs within 60 minutes
42% Walk 8%
How much do people pay to get to their jobs?
Percentage of household budget on transport2 trips/day
Source: Kumar and Barrett (2008)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Average Poorest quintile
Housing
Jobs
The Solution: Africa needs to build cities that work
Transport/ Infrastructure
Coordinated actions needed in three areas for productivity and livability.
Infrastructure: need policy interventions at all levels
National resources
• Improve intergovernmental transfers to city governments for infrastructure investment
Regional resources
• Expand revenue assignments for city governments
• Simplify the systems for local revenues
• Expand autonomy of city governments in setting tax levels and administering revenues
City governments and urban service
delivery agencies
• Institutional reform to strengthen city governments and service utilities to address service-delivery and urban planning and management challenges
• Develop metropolitan government arrangements for rapidly expanding mega-cities.
Improving local governments’ own source revenues:The case of Arusha, Tanzania
Issues:• Transfers as main revenue
source, suffering from delays and constraints
Actions:• Helping Arusha build Local
Government Revenue Collection Information System (LGCRIS)
Achievements: • City’s own source revenue
collection increased by 76% in 15 months
• Self-financed 90% of annual development projects in city
Reference: “The Arusha Experience: Improving Local Government’s Own Source Revenues.” Brochure available through Washington, DC: World Bank, 2015.
Key action areas
Improve city planning, building regulations, and access to land
Expand access to housing finance
Invest in and subsidize infrastructure and slum upgrading
Strengthen residential rental markets
1
2
3Strengthen local construction & building materials sectors; support private housing development
5
4
Drive access to low-cost formal housing increasingly down market
Provide direct support to
bottom 70% of the market
Core policy goals
Housing: policy goals and action areas
Informal settlement upgrading and improvement:The case of Nouakchott, Mauritania
Challenges:• Largest kebbe of 40,000
households with no/poor services
Actions:• Offered serviced plots nearby• Issued microcredit loans for
home improvement and compensation
Achievements: • Great improvements in housing
conditions with access to services• Created jobs and helped NGOs to
scale up the workReference: “Implementation Completion and Results Report no. ICR1359, Urban Development Project.” Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013.
Support small businesses
with potential to grow
Facilitate business
transition from non-tradable to
tradable
Improve business
environmentand reduce business
costs
Jobs: policy focuses and actions
Job-creation policies can help transform the realities.
Activities:• Labor-intensive public
investment (paving cobblestone streets) under the Bank-financed Urban Local Government Development Project (ULGDP)
Achievements: • Created more than 95,000
jobs, especially for woman, youth and the unemployed
• Encouraged creation of micro and small scale enterprises
Creating jobs through urban development projects: The case of Adigrat, Ethiopia
Reference: “Ethiopia Development Project Creates Jobs, Transforms Cities”, retrieved from World Bank Group website, http://go.worldbank.org/OYDNPDSMB0 Photo courtesy of MUDH, Ethiopia
Towards cities that work!
Housing
Jobs
Infrastructure
With coordinated actions in the three areas, cities of Africa will become engines of growth that are productive and livable.