A Storm-Scale Analysis of the A Storm-Scale Analysis of the 16 June 2008 Significant 16 June 2008 Significant

Severe Weather Event across Severe Weather Event across New York and Western New New York and Western New

EnglandEnglandThomas A. WasulaThomas A. Wasula

NOAA/NWS at AlbanyNOAA/NWS at AlbanyNROW XNROW X

November 5-6, 2008November 5-6, 2008

MotivationMotivation

CSTAR III examines sensible weather with CSTAR III examines sensible weather with warm season cutoff lowswarm season cutoff lows

Storm-scale environment important to Storm-scale environment important to understand mesoscale substructure of understand mesoscale substructure of convection with cutoffsconvection with cutoffs

New technology being utilized in short-New technology being utilized in short-fuse operationsfuse operations

OutlineOutline

Brief Synoptic and Mesoscale OverviewBrief Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview

Radar AnalysisRadar Analysis

1.) GR2Analyst1.) GR2Analyst

2.) Four Dimensional Storm Cell 2.) Four Dimensional Storm Cell Investigator (FSI)Investigator (FSI)

3.) Traditional Radar Graphics3.) Traditional Radar Graphics

BackgroundBackground

Numerous large hail reports with Numerous large hail reports with significant agricultural damage to orchards significant agricultural damage to orchards across upstate NYacross upstate NYShort wave trough and cold front ahead of Short wave trough and cold front ahead of Cutoff focuses convectionCutoff focuses convectionCold pool anomalies (steep lapse rates) Cold pool anomalies (steep lapse rates) coupled with sufficient shear and instability coupled with sufficient shear and instability allowed multicellular and isolated allowed multicellular and isolated supercells to impact region supercells to impact region

Moderate Risk: Albany Forecast Moderate Risk: Albany Forecast AreaArea

1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook

16 June 2008: 1200 UTC 500 16 June 2008: 1200 UTC 500 hPa Heights, Temps and hPa Heights, Temps and

WindsWinds

www.spc.noaa.gov

16 June 2008: 1200 UTC 300 hPa 16 June 2008: 1200 UTC 300 hPa Isotachs, Streamlines, Divergence and Isotachs, Streamlines, Divergence and

WindsWinds

www.spc.noaa.gov

1200 UTC KALB Sounding1200 UTC KALB Sounding

SBCAPE = 644 J kg-1

DCAPE = 305 J kg-1

0-6 km Shear = 49 ktsWBZ HGT = 9.7 kft700-500 hPa LR = 5.6°C km-1

1800 UTC LAPS 1800 UTC LAPS 850-500 hPa Lapse rates850-500 hPa Lapse rates

700-500 hPa lapse rates were also around 7°C km-1

0.50.5º º GFS Lapse Rate AnomaliesGFS Lapse Rate Anomalies16 June 2008/1800 UTC16 June 2008/1800 UTC

Thanks to Matt Scalora for this slide

1800 UTC LAPS 1800 UTC LAPS SBCAPE and MSLPSBCAPE and MSLP

Light blue shade to green shade 1000-3000 J kg-1

0.50.5º GFS 16 June 2008/1800 º GFS 16 June 2008/1800 UTCUTC

Thanks to Matt Scalora for this slide

1800 UTC Albany 1800 UTC Albany SoundingSounding

-20ºC height =20.2kft

1745 UTC Satellite and 1745 UTC Satellite and LightningLightning

Significant clearing and destabilization occurred across eastern NY

NWS at Albany Forecast NWS at Albany Forecast AreaArea

GR2AnalystGR2Analyst

FSI – Future of Radar FSI – Future of Radar Analysis (AWIPS)Analysis (AWIPS)

Improved vertical cross-sections (Dynamic)Improved vertical cross-sections (Dynamic)

Constant Altitude Planned Position Indicator Constant Altitude Planned Position Indicator (CAPPI) for cross-sections with 8-bit data plotted (CAPPI) for cross-sections with 8-bit data plotted at constant altitudesat constant altitudes

3D Visualizations – 8-bit radar data from 3D Visualizations – 8-bit radar data from elevation scans, vertical cross-sections and elevation scans, vertical cross-sections and CAPPI’s are plotted as 2D textures in a 3D CAPPI’s are plotted as 2D textures in a 3D spacespace

Virtual volume scans – No volume scan is Virtual volume scans – No volume scan is incompleteincomplete

FSIFSI

PPI CAPPI

Vertical Cross-section 3D Flier

16-2300 UTC 0.516-2300 UTC 0.5° Base REF ° Base REF LoopLoop

Thanks to ITO Vasil Koleci for assistance with loop !!!

1855 UTC FSI 1855 UTC FSI

50 dBZ up to 27 kft

KBGM vs. KENX VILKBGM vs. KENX VIL

VIL: 55-60 kg m-2 VIL: 45-50 kg m-2

1855 UTC Cross-Section1855 UTC Cross-Section

-20°C

WER

1855 UTC : Golf Ball Hail 1855 UTC : Golf Ball Hail (1.75”) in Colonie and (1.75”) in Colonie and

2” hail in Guilderland !!!2” hail in Guilderland !!!

1900 UTC 0.51900 UTC 0.5°° Base REF Base REF

Height of 50 dBZ isosurface = 30 kft

1909 UTC: Hail reports kept 1909 UTC: Hail reports kept coming in (CESTM too) !!!coming in (CESTM too) !!!

50 dBZ to 30 kft

1946 UTC: FSI1946 UTC: FSI

65 dBZ to 24 kft !

Wow !

2133 UTC 0.52133 UTC 0.5º Base REFº Base REF

2133 UTC 0.52133 UTC 0.5° Base REF X-° Base REF X-sectionsection

2133 UTC Echo Tops2133 UTC Echo Tops

2133 UTC 50 dBZ 2133 UTC 50 dBZ IsosurfaceIsosurface

2142 UTC “Hail Monster”2142 UTC “Hail Monster”

60 dBZ isosurface up to 30 kft !!!

-20°C

Golf Ball-size hail reported

2142 UTC KENX 4-Panel 2142 UTC KENX 4-Panel Derived ProductDerived Product

Gridded VIL Echo Tops

Layer REF MAX 2 (24-33 kft)

Layer REF MAX3 (33-60 kft)

2146 UTC KENX 4-Panel 2146 UTC KENX 4-Panel Derived ProductDerived Product

Gridded VIL Echo Tops

Layer REF MAX 2 (24-33 kft)

Layer REF MAX3 (33-60 kft)

2146 UTC: Three Body 2146 UTC: Three Body Scatterer/Hail StreakScatterer/Hail Streak……

2146 UTC Base REF 4-2146 UTC Base REF 4-panelpanel

0.5°

3.1°

1.3°

2.4°

2146 UTC: FSI2146 UTC: FSI

50 dBZ well above -20°C

2142 UTC KENX SRM2142 UTC KENX SRM

0.5°0.9°

1.3° 1.8°

Tornado ???

2146 UTC KENX SRM2146 UTC KENX SRM

0.5°0.9°

1.3° 1.8°

ResultsResults

General Severe Weather Synoptic and General Severe Weather Synoptic and Mesoscale Environments identified well Mesoscale Environments identified well

New technology such as FSI aided New technology such as FSI aided forecasters with timely warningsforecasters with timely warnings

Hail ground truth reports were plentifulHail ground truth reports were plentiful

18 SVR’s issued with 15 verified; 1 TOR18 SVR’s issued with 15 verified; 1 TOR

POD = 0.93 (40/43 events); FAR = 0.17; POD = 0.93 (40/43 events); FAR = 0.17; CSI = 0.78; Lead Time = 25.5 minutesCSI = 0.78; Lead Time = 25.5 minutes