The Organic Yield Gap

An independent analysis comparing the 2014 USDA Organic Survey data with

USDA-NASS statistics for total crop production

Steven D. SavageSavage & Associates Consulting

Applied Mythology Blogwww.drstevesavage.com

High Level Summary The productivity of organic agriculture tends to be lower than that of conventional. That is

part of why there is a need for a price premium to the grower. Some have argued that this yield gap can be closed, but the data from the latest, detailed, 2014 USDA organic survey suggests that real-world organic yields are substantially lower. This analysis is based on 371 crop/geography comparisons representing 80% of all US cropland. In 84% of the crop/geography comparisons, organic yields were lower – mostly in the 20-50% range. The rare instances where organic yields were higher than conventional (9% of total) were overwhelmingly for hay and silage crops – not food crops. In order for the US crop production from 2014 to have been produced as organic would have required at least 109 million more farmed acres – an area equivalent to the total parkland and wild lands in the lower 48 states. Organic remains a very small fraction of the US cropland base (~0.44%) and so it puts a limited strain on land-use. That said, the concept of “only organic” is untenable from an environmental perspective.

Background and Methodology• Periodically, the USDA conducts a detailed survey of the US organic industry including data on the acreage, yield, and

price of organic crop production. Such surveys have been conducted in 2014, 2008. Organic data is available at the state level for a large number of crops in a summary on the USDA website. Similar data is collected each year by surveying a subset of all growers, and these numbers are available through the Quickstats2.0 website, also from USDA-NASS. The USDA does not publish a comparison of these two categories, so in 2009 and again this year I have undertaken to make such a comparison.

• Not all crop/state combinations are available for the analysis. Sometimes the minor crops in a state are not even tracked in the overall USDA data. For both the general and organic survey, if the number of farms reporting is too small, the numbers are not disclosed so that information about specific entities are shielded. Some crops are only tracked at the nationwide level (usually when one or a few states dominate the production). Even with these limitations, it was possible to find 371 good comparisons (356 at the state level and 15 for small crops at the national level e.g. cotton, tangerines…). These represented total cropland acres, 80% of the US total.

• Many academic studies have been done comparing organic and conventional production methods, and several meta-analyses have been published collecting these studies. While this is a valuable approach, it will not always reflect the full range of innovation or limitation that are a part of real world commercial agriculture. This USDA data is a window on the practical range of farming operation and the best available measure of how the different production systems perform in a practical sense. There are potential artifacts in this data set. If there is a difference in the proportion of irrigated land used for organic vs conventional it will skew the data as will other intensity differences or geographic differences within a state. Some of the comparisons are unbalanced as in the case of spinach and lettuce which are more heavily represented by “baby” types for organic in California. Even so, the overall distribution of yield spread is sufficiently weighted to the conventional advantage to indicate the reality of the differential.

Comparison based on 370 state/crop comparisons with at least 25 acres of organic

>Conv. Yield>Organic Yield

In 55 of 370 comparisons, yields were higher in organic. 89% of the higher yielding examples were with hay or silage crops, 10% with row crops and <1.5% with fruits and vegetables

370 state/crop comparisons representing 268 million acres of US cropland in 2014

US Level Data

Row Crops

Row Crops

Tree, Nut and Vine Crops

Tree, Nut and Vine Crops

Vegetable Crops

Vegetable Crops

State Level Data For Row Crops

Barley (Organic data from 532 farms, 45,710 acres, 1.9% of total, 33% yield gap, 1,286,070 more

acres for organic only production)

There could be differences in the proportion of irrigated barley in some states

Barley (1.19 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Corn For Grain(organic data from 2735 farms, 168K acres, 0.2% of total, 35% yield gap, 45.1 million

more acres needed for organic only production )

Corn For Grain(45 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Corn Silage(organic data from 960 farms, 36K acres, 0.6% of total, 20% yield gap, 1.6 million more

acres needed for organic only production)

Corn Silage(1.61 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Dry Edible Beans(organic data from 120 farms, 13,472 acres, 0.9% of total, 23% yield gap, 415,915 more

acres needed for organic only production)

Dry Edible Beans

Dry Edible Peas(organic data from 46 farms, 4857 acres, 0.5% of total)

Dry Edible Peas(487K more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Alfalfa/Hay Mixtures(States with highest organic yield, total of 28 states with available data 1607 farms, 220K

acres, 1.4% of total, yield gap 2.4%, 375K acres for all organic)

Alfalfa/Hay Mixtures(States with lowest organic yield, total of 28 states with available data 1607 farms, 220K

acres, 1.4% of total, yield gap 2.4%, 375K acres for all organic)

Other Hay(States with >800K acres, total 1983 farms, 179K acres, 0.5% of total, -21% yield gap,

6.6million less acres needed for only organic production)

Other Hay(States with <800K acres, total 1983 farms, 179K acres, 0.5% of total, -21% yield gap,

6.6million less acres needed for only organic production)

Other Haylage and Greenchop(organic data from 962 farms, 101K acres, 7.7% of total, 19% yield gap, 282K more

acres needed for organic only production)

Oats(organic data from 969 farms, 42K acres, 4.7% of total, 18% yield gap, 187K more acres

needed for organic only production)

Proso Millet(organic data from 29 farms, 10K acres, 2.8% of total, 25% yield gap, 117K more acres

needed for organic only production )

Proso Millet(117K more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Rice(organic data from 85 farms, 25K acres, 0.9% of total, 39% yield gap, 1.83 million more

acres needed for organic only production )

Rice(1.83 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Sorghum(organic data from 47 farms, 5616 acres, 0.1% of total, 21% yield gap, 1.71 million

more acres needed for organic only production)

Sorghum(1.71 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Sorghum Silage(organic data from 181 farms,14,153 acres, 4.5 % of total, 17% yield gap, 60,489 more

acres needed for organic only production)

Sorghum Silage Yield Gap(60,489 more acres to produce all organic)

Soybeans(organic data from 1432 farms, 99K acres, 0.1% of total, 31% yield gap, 37.7 million more

acres needed for organic only production)

Soybeans(37.7 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Sunflower Seed(organic data from 61 farms, 6682 acres, 0.4% of total, 26% yield gap, 528K more acres

needed for organic only production)

Sunflower Seed(528K more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Durum Wheat(organic data from 43 farms, 10.8K acres, 0.8% of total, 20% yield gap, 528K more acres

needed for organic only production)

Durum Wheat(324K more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Spring Wheat(organic data from 295 farms, 80K acres, 0.6% of total, 34% yield gap, 6.44 million

more acres needed for organic only production)

Spring Wheat(6.4 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Winter Wheat(States over 500K acres, total organic data from 826 farms, 173K acres, 0.5% of total, 29% yield

gap, 13.2 million more acres needed for organic only production )

Winter Wheat(States under 500K acres, total organic data from 826 farms, 173K acres, 0.5% of total, 29% yield

gap, 13.2 million more acres needed for organic only production )

Winter Wheat (states over 500K acres)(13.2 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Winter Wheat (states under 500K acres)(13.2 more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Other Row Crops(8.8 million more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Other Row CropsCrop Farms Acres % Total

acresYield Gap More Acres

for all Organic

Cotton US 38 15,756 0.2 45% 7,659,051

Peanuts US 21 8,394 0.6 37% 757,587

Flaxseed US 62 15,204 5.0 43% 219,950

Rye US 269 8,500 3.3 -6% -14,879

Safflower US 10 2,547 1.5 6% 12,140

Lentils US 15 1,465 0.6 35% 139,084

State Level Data For Tree Nut and Vine Crops

Apples(organic data from 669 farms, 15K acres, 6.8% of total, 25% yield gap, 67,971 more

acres for organic only production )

Apples(60K more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Avocados(organic data from 371 farms, 3,652 acres, 6.2% of total, 12% yield gap, 8,075 more

acres needed for organic only production)

Avocado(8,075 more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Fresh Blueberries(organic data from 316 farms, 3,293 acres, 5.4% of total, 6% yield gap, 3,634 more

acres to produce all organic)

Blueberries, FreshState Farms Acres % Total More Acres

Arkansas 8 6 2.6 320

California 63 941 19.6 1,655

Florida 39 299 7.0 789

Georgia 26 263 1.6 11,688

New Jersey 10 131 1.4 3,428

New York 28 88 12.6 -43

North Carolina 28 92 1.3 4,999

Oregon 58 218 2.4 2,790

Washington 56 1,255 13.8 -1,528

Above States 648 3,293 5.4 3,634

Processed Blueberries(organic data from 51 farms, 990 acres, 1.2% of total, 107% higher yield in organic

segment )

Cranberries(organic data from 30 farms, 283 acres, 0.7% of total, 67% yield gap, 5,883 more acres

needed for all organic production)

Grapefruit(organic data from 135 farms, 1,411 acres, 2.0% of total, 32% yield gap, 32,062 more

acres needed for all organic production)

Grapes(organic data from 681 farms, 27,009 acres, 2.6% of total, 49% yield gap, 982,625 more

acres needed for all organic production)

The California, and thus the US number is skewed because the organic grapes tend to be grown in the premium wine producing areas which have much lower yields than those in the central valley for wine, table and raisin grapes

Pears(organic data from 242 farms, 2,675 acres, 0.5% of total, 32% yield gap, 21,641 more

acres needed for organic only production)

Peaches, Fresh(255 farms, 2,794 acres, 2.7% of total, 25% yield gap,37,740 more acres needed

for all organic production)

Raspberries(organic data from 81 farms, 393 acres, 5.7% of total, 15% yield gap, 1,183 more acres

needed for organic only production)

Strawberries(organic data from 618 farms, 2,980 acres, 5.5% of total, 61% yield gap, 78,121 more

acres needed for organic only production)

Other Tree and Vine CropsCrop Farms Acres % Total Yield Gap More AcresAlmonds US 99 6,162 0.7 43% 643,900

Blackberries US 19 60 1.0 42% 4,338

S. Cherries US 160 1,888 2.1 -6.3% -114,20

S. Cherries WA 80 1,409 4.0 15% 5,883

S. Cherries CA 38 300 0.9 19% 7,488

T. Cherries US 35 465 1.2 -6% -2,127

Coffee US 43 224 2.9 25% 2,518

Dates US 26 708 8.6 10% 861

Figs US 119 1,235 17.6 64% 1,0036

Hazelnuts US 15 187 0.6 38% 18,432

Lemons CA 195 2,118 4.6 23% 13,188

Plums CA 128 2,320 12.9 37% 9,343

Plums OR 31 86 6.6 6% 0

Tangerines US 134 747 1.2 58% 85,186

Walnuts US 205 5,781 2.5 48% 20,7514

State Level Data For Vegetable Crops

Snap Beans(organic data from 843 farms, 1,525 acres, 2.3% of total, 44% yield advantage, -20K

acres needed for organic only production)

Cabbage (green)(organic data from 671 farms, 1298 acres, 2.1% of total, 38% yield gap,37,596 more

acres needed if all organic)

Cauliflower (organic data from 316 farms, 1,745 acres, 4.6% of total, 30% yield gap, 15,429 more

acres needed if all organic)

Cantaloupes and Muskmellons(organic data from 375 farms, 1,174 acres, 1.9% of total, 9,080 more acres need for all

organic)

All but California less than 12 acres organic total per state

Carrots(organic data from 1062 farms, 8972 acres, 12.1% of total, 49% yield gap, 61,809 more

acres needed for all organic)

Garlic(organic data from 972 farms, 726 acres, 3.1% of total, 66% yield gap, 44,891 more

acres if all organic)

Onions, Dry(organic data from 417 farms, 1352 acres, 1.0% of total acres, 21% yield gap, 35,633

more acres for all organic)

Only Wisconsin and California have more than 10 acres of organic onions

Bell Peppers(organic data from 881 farms, 1,196 acres, 2.6% of total, 40% yield gap, 30,698 acres to

produce all organic)

Georgia and Michigan had <10 acres of organic peppers

Potatoes(organic data from 953 farms, 12K acres, 1.1% of total, yield gap 30%, 450,109 more

acres needed for only organic)

MT, FL, KS, MI, IL, MD, MN all 10 or less organic acres

Potatoes(450K more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Squash(organic data from 1,347 farms, 6,826 acres, 17.7% of total, 10% US yield gap, 3,542

more acres for only organic production)

Sweet Corn(organic data from 256 farms, 11,382 acres,13.1% of total. Sorted by organic yield, -16% yield

gap, -10,380 acres if all organic, )

Only OR, CA, NY, PA, NC, VT, WA, WI >20 acres organic so only these states included in summary statistics above

Sweet Potatoes(organic data from 302 farms, 6,005 acres, 4.4% of total, -29% yield gap, -28,917 acres

for organic only production)

Fresh Tomatoes(organic data from 821 farms, 2,566 acres, 3.0% of total, yield gap 61%, 129,672 more

acres needed for organic only production)

Summary statistics based on states with a least 25 acres of organic fresh tomatoes

Watermelons(organic data from 341 farms, 871 acres, 0.8% of total, 76% yield gap, 33,855 more

acres needed for organic only production)

IN, AK, VA, MA, GA < 20 acres of organic watermelons

Other Vegetable Crop Yield Gaps(931 more acres would have been needed to produce all organic)

Other VegetablesCrop Farms Acres % of Total Acres Yield Differential

(%)More Acres If

All OrganicArtichokes CA 28 102 1.4 -7% -492

Broccoli US 716 8,571 6.7 17% 25,317

Broccoli CA 150 7,246 5.6 8% 10,705

Celery US 190 2,235 7.7 32% 12,678

Hops US 31 421 1.1 39% 24,196

Leaf Lettuce US 59.4 79%* 80,579

Lettuce All US 1063 32,122 12.3 72%* 590,605

Green Peas US 385 9,624 5.1 -12% -19,505

Spinach US 411 18,000 47.9 71%* 47,086

Processing Tomatoes US

88 4,545 1.5 35% 159,880

Snap Beans, Processing US

65 4,356 2.7 23% 46,164

*Probably related to proportion of “baby” lettuce products