The Random Disruption Scenario

:

SG

This is your global ecosystem. However your knowledge of this system is confined to some discovery radius which has been limited by local topography (mountains, valleys, uncrossable rivers, dense forest, etc, etc)

ST

BB

CW

SG = Culture of the Sacred GoatsSG

The rest of the ecosystem properties and its inhabitants are not known

ST

CW

Sacred tigers

BB Belligerent

Barbarians

Clueless

Wanderers

Now, unbeknownst to the SG culture is the fact that they have located their culture around a dormant volcano. Then one day ….

SG

If left undisturbed, none of these cultures will mix for centuries

ST

BB

CW

A disruptive event of impact radius larger than the discovery zone occurs

SG

Two possibilities now exist:

a) The SG culture is made extinct

b) Some of the SG culture manages to escape. Now since the event is larger than their “world” a successful escape means emergence into an undiscovered world.

c) Since there is no knowledge of the external world there is no preferred direction in which to escape

d) This leads to the notion of survival vectors and each vector has a different survival probability

ST

BB

CW

8

5

1

This causes a random dispersal of the culture which then changes its

evolution. And Each direction leads to a

different statistical outcome

SG

Let’s imagine there are 8 survival or escape vectors and all of them lead to the unknown

ST

BB

CW

5

Directions 3,5,7 leads to these outcomes

7

3

These are also extinction events; SG does not survive

SG

Let’s imagine there are 8 survival or escape vectors and all of them lead to the unknown

ST

BB

CW

4

Directions 2 and 4 leads to these outcomes

2

These are new survivable ecosystems so SG has merely

relocated – do they have critical mass to survive?

SG

The remaining three directions lead to more interesting outcomes

a) Direction 8.runs the SG into the BB who simply exterminate them before asking any questions. So, again, SG goes extinct

b) Direction 6 runs the SG into the CW – the SG dominate and convert the CW into SG and hence SG is now starting to build an empire

a) Direction 1 runs the SG into the ST. The ST are benevolent and a synergy between the SG and the ST results and a NEW cultural is borne the culture of the Sacred Gigers new knowledge has been created

ST

BB

CW

8

6