PRESENTATION TITLE GOES HERE

The Perennial Hard Disk Drive Storage Industry “Workhorse”

Edward Grochowski Thomas Coughlin Computer Memory/Storage Consultant President, Coughlin Associates

EdwGrochowski@aol.com Tom@Tomcoughlin.com

April 7-9, 2015 Hyatt Hotel Santa Clara, CA

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

“I HAVE COME TO PRAISE MAGNETIC HARD DISK DRIVES

NOT TO CRITIQUE FLASH MEMORY”

Based on: Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar, Act III, Scene II

Legal Disclaimer

Ed Grochowski

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WORLD OF STORAGE

1000 EXABYTES/YEAR

The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

Ed Grochowski

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WORLD OF STORAGE

1000 EXABYTES/YEAR

HDD Ugh!

The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

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WORLD OF STORAGE

1000 EXABYTES/YEAR

HDD

SSD

The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

Ed Grochowski

Nature Is Wonderful

The Moon Regulates The Earth’s Rotation Rate It Evens Out The Earth’s Spin (Minimizes Wobble?) It Determines The Earth’s Internal Properties (Tides) So That SDD Regulates HDD Speed And Performance SSD Adds HDD Capacity SSD Supports HDD Reliability

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1,000.00

1,200.00

1,400.00

1,600.00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ann

ual S

hipp

ed S

tora

ge C

apac

ity

(Exa

byte

s)

HDDSSD

Annual HDD/SSD Storage Capacity Ships

2019 2020 Production Year

Tom Coughlin

10-20 X

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

Annual HDD Unit Ships

Tom Coughlin

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

“Boilerplate”

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

90 95 100 105 110 115

Production Year

1E+1

1E+2

1E+3

1E+4

1E+5

1E+6

1E+7

Area

l Den

sity

GIg

abits

/in2

HDD ProductsHDD Productsw/PMR

HDD Areal Density Perspective

1st MR Head

1st GMR Head

2000 2005 2010 2015

Ed Grochowski

60% CGR

arpe

rs20

15B.

prz

100% CGR

1st AFC Media

PerpendicularRecording

103

102

10

104

25% CGR

40% CGR

1

10-1

10-2

TMR Head

~550 Million X Increase

~13% CGR

1/13/2015

104 103 102 10

10-1 10-2

1

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

Ed Grochowski Ed Grochowski

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

Pric

e/G

Byt

e, D

olla

rs DRAM

FlashDesktopMobile

Enterprise1"

Average Retail Prices of Storage

oem

prc2

015.

prz

Ed Grochowski 2015

64 GB Flash

Desktop HDD Mobile HDD

1 " HDD

DRAM/Flash

6 TB Desktop3 TB Mobile Drive

500 GB/15K Server

Enterprise HDD

16 GB DRAM

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

TRENDS IN RECORDED BIT LENGTH.

Trac

kwid

th , λ

m

Trac

kwid

th , λ

m

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Bit length, λ m Bit length, λ m

(1990) 0.09 Gbit /in

2

20:1

(1992) 0.2 Gbits/in 2

19:1

(1992) 0.2 Gbits/in 2

19:1

(1994) 0.5 Gbits/in 2

18:1

(1994) 0.5 Gbits/in 2

18:1

(1998) 5 Gbits/in 2

14:1

(1998) 5 Gbits/in 2

14:1

(2000) 20 Gbits/in

2

12:1

(2000) 20 Gbits/in

2

12:1

12 λ m

12

λ m

7.8

λ m

7.8

λ m

4.8

λ m

4.8

λ m

1.3

λ m

1.3

λ m

0.62

0.60 0.41 0.27

The Shrinking Bit Cell

0.052 0.17

(2002) 50 Gbits/in 2

10:1

(2002) 50 Gbits/in 2

10:1

(1996) 1.3 Gbits/in

2

17:1

(1996) 1.3 Gbits/in

2

17:1

2.9

m

2.9

m

0.036

0.36

(2005) 100 Gbits/in

2

8:1

(2005) 100 Gbits/in

2

8:1

0.028

0.23

0.023 0.

14

0.094

(2006/7) 200 Gbits/in 2

6:1

(2008/9) 320 Gbits/in

2

5.5:1

(2008/9) 320 Gbits/in

2

5.5:1

(2010/11) 550 Gbits/in

2

5.2:1

(2010/11) 550 Gbits/in

2

5.2:1

(2015) 1 Tbit /in 2

5.0:1 1 Tbit /in 2

5.0:1

0.11

0.019

0.07

8

0.015

0.05

7

0.011 0.008

0.04

(2016/17 2 Tbit /in 2

4.4:1

(201 2 Tbit /in 2

4.4:1

TRE

ND

SIN

RE

CO

RD

ED

BIT

LEN

GTH

201

5

Ed Grochowski

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

Ed Grochowski

99 101 103 105 107 109 111 113 115 117 119

Availability Year

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

HDD

Capa

city

, TBy

tes

HDD CapacityRoadmap

2000 02 04 06 08 2010 12 14 16 18 2020

HDD

road

map

2015

A.pr

z Ed Grochowski/Tom Coughlin

8.1 GB

2.5 inch

3.5 inch form factor

300 GB

750GB Server 10K RPM2000 GB Desktop 7200 RPM

36GB Server15K RPM

750 GB

10TB Mobile 5400 RPM

20TB Desktop 7200 RPM

300 GB Server15K RPM

2.5TB Server 10K RPM

1 TB

4 TB

8TB Desktop 7200 RPM

6 TB

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

Ed Grochowski

Cloud Storage System ca. 2020

20 TB HDD 3.5 Inch

7200 RPM 6 ms Access

Per Drawer 8-20 TB HDD

w/Electronics +SSD

Per System 16-Drawers

128 HDA’s =2560 EB

w/Cooling+ Electronics

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

Ed Grochowski

Writeability(2.4 Tesla)

Thermal StabilityKuV/kT

SNR Log10 N

Inductive Write Head Limit

Maximum Number Of Media Magnetic Grains

Maximum Magnetic Properties, Volume Of Magnetic Media Grain

MAGNETIC TECHNOLOGY TRILEMMA

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Magnetic Grains and Bit Size

Based on G. Bertero (WD) SCVM

100 Gb/in2

250 Gb/in2

500 Gb/in2

800 Gb/in2

1 Tb Gb/in2

~90Grains

~40Grains

~20Grains

~11Grains

2 Tb Gb/in2 ~8Grains

~4Grains

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Ed Grochowski

CoCrPtO FePt

HAMR Adv.

Media

Based on G. Bertero SCVM

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Ed Grochowski

HDD TECHNOLOGY ENHANCEMENTS

1. Heat Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR)

2. Shingle Write Recording (SMR)

3. Two Dimensional Magnetic Recording

4. Bit Patterned Media

5. Mechanical HDD Enhancements

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Ed Grochowski

Coer

civity

Media Temperature

Head Field

Toperating Twrite

Heating

Cooling

Source: Seagate Technology Corp.

Heat Activated Magnetic Recording (HAMR)

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HAMR HEAD w/LASER ELEMENT

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The Technology Of Shingled Writing

+ Performance effect on rewriting

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Production Year

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

Circ

uit C

apac

ity M

bits

NAND Flash Memory Circuit Density Roadmap

1 Gb 130 nm2 Gb 90 nm

4 Gb 90 nm8 Gb 65 nm

16 Gb 45 nm

512 Mb 180 nm256 Mb 250 nm

64 Mb 250 nm32 Mb 400 nm

16 Mb 600 nm

Floating Gate

Charge Trap

Advanced Technology

SLC

MLC

3-D

64 Gb 24 nm

128 Gb 19 nm 80 Gb 24 nm

NAN

D R

oadm

ap 2

014.

prz

256 Gb 12 nm

Ed Grochowski

>256 Gb 19 nm >35 4

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

Ed Grochowski

3D NAND Technology

Ref: Applied Materials/Samsung

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Ed Grochowski

1. STT RAM

2. RRAM

3. PRAM

4. FRAM

5. Carbon Nanotubes

NEW NVM/STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

Ed Grochowski

DRAM + SRAM + ROM + FLASH -----> STT RAM (SPIN LOGIC TOO?)

STT RAM: WHAT IS CLAIMED!

“We are entering an era in which electronic devices function not by the quantity of electron flow but by their electron spin momentum. In a nano/pico scaling device environment this is of maximum importance.”

Cr/Au

CoFeB

CoFeB

MgO AlO2

3

AlO2

3

Ru

RuTa

Ta

Ta

N+

P-subs

Gate

N+

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Ed Grochowski

“IS NVM/STORAGE 10 YEARS AWAY?” (AND LOGIC TOO!)

HfO2 HfO2 HfO2

Figure 1 Figure 2

Top Electrode TiN

Top Electrode TiN

Top Electrode TiN

Bottom Electrode TiN

Bottom Electrode TiN

Bottom Electrode TiN

RRAM before form After +4V form After -2V Reset

STT RAM

RRAM

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Ed Grochowski

STT RAM Computer Architectural Evolution

HOST CONTROLLER A FLASH

HDD

CONTROLLER C

CONTROLLER B

DRAM

HOST CONTROLLER A STT RAM

HDD CONTROLLER B

CONTROLLER C HIDDEN STORAGE?

Based on nvm(EXPRESS) FMS 2014 29

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

Ed Grochowski

1. Storage Mantra – Price, Capacity, Performance, Availability

2. New HDD Technologies Required Beyond 1+ Tb/in2

3. Flash Market: Mobile/Handheld, Laptop, Array

4. HDD Market: High Byte Capacity (Desktop, Laptop, Enterprise,

Cloud)

5. Significant Mfg. Challenges For 3D Flash, HDD w/HAMR (About As

Difficult!)

6. New Storage (Memory) Technologies On Horizon (STT RAM,

RRAM) And Spin Logic Too!

7. Future Belongs To The Best

Conclusion

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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse

Ed Grochowski

HDD’s Get No Respect

The Next Time You Hear The Term

“Spinning Rust”

You Are Empowered To

Pull His (or Her) USB Plug!