The Perennial Hard Disk Drive Storage Industry …...The Perennial Hard Disk Drive Storage Industry...
Transcript of The Perennial Hard Disk Drive Storage Industry …...The Perennial Hard Disk Drive Storage Industry...
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The Perennial Hard Disk Drive Storage Industry “Workhorse”
Edward Grochowski Thomas Coughlin Computer Memory/Storage Consultant President, Coughlin Associates
[email protected] [email protected]
April 7-9, 2015 Hyatt Hotel Santa Clara, CA
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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse
“I HAVE COME TO PRAISE MAGNETIC HARD DISK DRIVES
NOT TO CRITIQUE FLASH MEMORY”
Based on: Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar, Act III, Scene II
Legal Disclaimer
Ed Grochowski
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WORLD OF STORAGE
1000 EXABYTES/YEAR
The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse
Ed Grochowski
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WORLD OF STORAGE
1000 EXABYTES/YEAR
HDD Ugh!
The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse
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WORLD OF STORAGE
1000 EXABYTES/YEAR
HDD
SSD
The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse
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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse
Ed Grochowski
Nature Is Wonderful
The Moon Regulates The Earth’s Rotation Rate It Evens Out The Earth’s Spin (Minimizes Wobble?) It Determines The Earth’s Internal Properties (Tides) So That SDD Regulates HDD Speed And Performance SSD Adds HDD Capacity SSD Supports HDD Reliability
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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1,000.00
1,200.00
1,400.00
1,600.00
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ann
ual S
hipp
ed S
tora
ge C
apac
ity
(Exa
byte
s)
HDDSSD
Annual HDD/SSD Storage Capacity Ships
2019 2020 Production Year
Tom Coughlin
10-20 X
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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse
Annual HDD Unit Ships
Tom Coughlin
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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse
“Boilerplate”
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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse
90 95 100 105 110 115
Production Year
1E+1
1E+2
1E+3
1E+4
1E+5
1E+6
1E+7
Area
l Den
sity
GIg
abits
/in2
HDD ProductsHDD Productsw/PMR
HDD Areal Density Perspective
1st MR Head
1st GMR Head
2000 2005 2010 2015
Ed Grochowski
60% CGR
arpe
rs20
15B.
prz
100% CGR
1st AFC Media
PerpendicularRecording
103
102
10
104
25% CGR
40% CGR
1
10-1
10-2
TMR Head
~550 Million X Increase
~13% CGR
1/13/2015
104 103 102 10
10-1 10-2
1
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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse
Ed Grochowski Ed Grochowski
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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
Pric
e/G
Byt
e, D
olla
rs DRAM
FlashDesktopMobile
Enterprise1"
Average Retail Prices of Storage
oem
prc2
015.
prz
Ed Grochowski 2015
64 GB Flash
Desktop HDD Mobile HDD
1 " HDD
DRAM/Flash
6 TB Desktop3 TB Mobile Drive
500 GB/15K Server
Enterprise HDD
16 GB DRAM
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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse
TRENDS IN RECORDED BIT LENGTH.
Trac
kwid
th , λ
m
Trac
kwid
th , λ
m
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Bit length, λ m Bit length, λ m
(1990) 0.09 Gbit /in
2
20:1
(1992) 0.2 Gbits/in 2
19:1
(1992) 0.2 Gbits/in 2
19:1
(1994) 0.5 Gbits/in 2
18:1
(1994) 0.5 Gbits/in 2
18:1
(1998) 5 Gbits/in 2
14:1
(1998) 5 Gbits/in 2
14:1
(2000) 20 Gbits/in
2
12:1
(2000) 20 Gbits/in
2
12:1
12 λ m
12
λ m
7.8
λ m
7.8
λ m
4.8
λ m
4.8
λ m
1.3
λ m
1.3
λ m
0.62
0.60 0.41 0.27
The Shrinking Bit Cell
0.052 0.17
(2002) 50 Gbits/in 2
10:1
(2002) 50 Gbits/in 2
10:1
(1996) 1.3 Gbits/in
2
17:1
(1996) 1.3 Gbits/in
2
17:1
2.9
m
2.9
m
0.036
0.36
(2005) 100 Gbits/in
2
8:1
(2005) 100 Gbits/in
2
8:1
0.028
0.23
0.023 0.
14
0.094
(2006/7) 200 Gbits/in 2
6:1
(2008/9) 320 Gbits/in
2
5.5:1
(2008/9) 320 Gbits/in
2
5.5:1
(2010/11) 550 Gbits/in
2
5.2:1
(2010/11) 550 Gbits/in
2
5.2:1
(2015) 1 Tbit /in 2
5.0:1 1 Tbit /in 2
5.0:1
0.11
0.019
0.07
8
0.015
0.05
7
0.011 0.008
0.04
(2016/17 2 Tbit /in 2
4.4:1
(201 2 Tbit /in 2
4.4:1
TRE
ND
SIN
RE
CO
RD
ED
BIT
LEN
GTH
201
5
Ed Grochowski
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The Perennial HDD-Storage Industry Workhorse
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Ed Grochowski
99 101 103 105 107 109 111 113 115 117 119
Availability Year
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
HDD
Capa
city
, TBy
tes
HDD CapacityRoadmap
2000 02 04 06 08 2010 12 14 16 18 2020
HDD
road
map
2015
A.pr
z Ed Grochowski/Tom Coughlin
8.1 GB
2.5 inch
3.5 inch form factor
300 GB
750GB Server 10K RPM2000 GB Desktop 7200 RPM
36GB Server15K RPM
750 GB
10TB Mobile 5400 RPM
20TB Desktop 7200 RPM
300 GB Server15K RPM
2.5TB Server 10K RPM
1 TB
4 TB
8TB Desktop 7200 RPM
6 TB
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Cloud Storage System ca. 2020
20 TB HDD 3.5 Inch
7200 RPM 6 ms Access
Per Drawer 8-20 TB HDD
w/Electronics +SSD
Per System 16-Drawers
128 HDA’s =2560 EB
w/Cooling+ Electronics
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Ed Grochowski
Writeability(2.4 Tesla)
Thermal StabilityKuV/kT
SNR Log10 N
Inductive Write Head Limit
Maximum Number Of Media Magnetic Grains
Maximum Magnetic Properties, Volume Of Magnetic Media Grain
MAGNETIC TECHNOLOGY TRILEMMA
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Magnetic Grains and Bit Size
Based on G. Bertero (WD) SCVM
100 Gb/in2
250 Gb/in2
500 Gb/in2
800 Gb/in2
1 Tb Gb/in2
~90Grains
~40Grains
~20Grains
~11Grains
2 Tb Gb/in2 ~8Grains
~4Grains
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CoCrPtO FePt
HAMR Adv.
Media
Based on G. Bertero SCVM
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HDD TECHNOLOGY ENHANCEMENTS
1. Heat Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR)
2. Shingle Write Recording (SMR)
3. Two Dimensional Magnetic Recording
4. Bit Patterned Media
5. Mechanical HDD Enhancements
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Coer
civity
Media Temperature
Head Field
Toperating Twrite
Heating
Cooling
Source: Seagate Technology Corp.
Heat Activated Magnetic Recording (HAMR)
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Ed Grochowski
HAMR HEAD w/LASER ELEMENT
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The Technology Of Shingled Writing
+ Performance effect on rewriting
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Production Year
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
Circ
uit C
apac
ity M
bits
NAND Flash Memory Circuit Density Roadmap
1 Gb 130 nm2 Gb 90 nm
4 Gb 90 nm8 Gb 65 nm
16 Gb 45 nm
512 Mb 180 nm256 Mb 250 nm
64 Mb 250 nm32 Mb 400 nm
16 Mb 600 nm
Floating Gate
Charge Trap
Advanced Technology
SLC
MLC
3-D
64 Gb 24 nm
128 Gb 19 nm 80 Gb 24 nm
NAN
D R
oadm
ap 2
014.
prz
256 Gb 12 nm
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>256 Gb 19 nm >35 4
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3D NAND Technology
Ref: Applied Materials/Samsung
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1. STT RAM
2. RRAM
3. PRAM
4. FRAM
5. Carbon Nanotubes
NEW NVM/STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES
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Ed Grochowski
DRAM + SRAM + ROM + FLASH -----> STT RAM (SPIN LOGIC TOO?)
STT RAM: WHAT IS CLAIMED!
“We are entering an era in which electronic devices function not by the quantity of electron flow but by their electron spin momentum. In a nano/pico scaling device environment this is of maximum importance.”
Cr/Au
CoFeB
CoFeB
MgO AlO2
3
AlO2
3
Ru
RuTa
Ta
Ta
N+
P-subs
Gate
N+
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“IS NVM/STORAGE 10 YEARS AWAY?” (AND LOGIC TOO!)
HfO2 HfO2 HfO2
Figure 1 Figure 2
Top Electrode TiN
Top Electrode TiN
Top Electrode TiN
Bottom Electrode TiN
Bottom Electrode TiN
Bottom Electrode TiN
RRAM before form After +4V form After -2V Reset
STT RAM
RRAM
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STT RAM Computer Architectural Evolution
HOST CONTROLLER A FLASH
HDD
CONTROLLER C
CONTROLLER B
DRAM
HOST CONTROLLER A STT RAM
HDD CONTROLLER B
CONTROLLER C HIDDEN STORAGE?
Based on nvm(EXPRESS) FMS 2014 29
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Ed Grochowski
1. Storage Mantra – Price, Capacity, Performance, Availability
2. New HDD Technologies Required Beyond 1+ Tb/in2
3. Flash Market: Mobile/Handheld, Laptop, Array
4. HDD Market: High Byte Capacity (Desktop, Laptop, Enterprise,
Cloud)
5. Significant Mfg. Challenges For 3D Flash, HDD w/HAMR (About As
Difficult!)
6. New Storage (Memory) Technologies On Horizon (STT RAM,
RRAM) And Spin Logic Too!
7. Future Belongs To The Best
Conclusion
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Ed Grochowski
HDD’s Get No Respect
The Next Time You Hear The Term
“Spinning Rust”
You Are Empowered To
Pull His (or Her) USB Plug!