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Copyright © Institut Lean France 2011
The Myth of Certainty
Is Implementation a naughty word ?
Copyright 2011 Steven C. Bell
Steve Bell
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Steve Bell
2006 2010 2012
SteveB@LeanITStrategies.com
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“The Big Ball of Mud”
The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 3
How to Untangle Enterprise IT?
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Detroit 1983Auto executives visit Japan
on a “discovery tour”
The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell
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“There were no inventories in any of the plants. I’ve been in manufacturing
operations for almost thirty years and I can tell you those were not real plants. They had clearly been staged for our
tour.”
Detroit Auto Executive
Source: Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline 5
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Mental Models
Source: Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline
The problems with mental
models arise when they
become implicit – when
they exist below the level of
our awareness.
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Could we have adysfunctional mental model of IT and we don’t even know it?
The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell
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Source: Apriso Software, Inc. 8
Caption: “Shouldn’t we wait to see what the other team does?”
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Enterprise IT is:�Fast�Complex�Competitive�Disruptive
And the future of many companies and industries is at stake
The Challenge
The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 9
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• IT Consumerization - pace of expected change
• Smart, location/context aware, mobile devices
� The security challenges they create
� The useful information they produce
• Social networking – new relationships with our customers – they’re informed and in charge
• The cloud and EaaS (Everything as a Service)
Enterprise IT Disruptors
10The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell
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The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed
William Gibson
Source: Kent Beck, Software G Forces 11
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Can our traditional approach to Enterprise IT survive?
12The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell
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Traditional IT
Presentation title- Speaker Name 13
CIO
Development Operations Support Advisory
IT Related
product/service
development
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The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 14
IT Management
Governance, Portfolio Management,
Finance, Performance Dashboards, ,
Strategy Deployment, Knowledge
Management
Application
Data and
Integration
Infrastructure
Business Facing
(outward)
IT Organization Facing
(inward)
IT Operations (hosting, infrastructure,
security, telecom, etc)
IT Service Management
Enterprise
Integration
and
MiddlewareBusiness
Intelligence
Performance
Management
Enterprise-wide
Applications
(ERP, CRM, SCM, etc)
Lean Software
Development
(Agile and Scrum)
DevOps
Business
Process
Management
What is
this thingcalled “IT”?
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1. Run : Keeping the lights on, operations
2. Grow : Doing new stuff to grow revenue through new customers, products, and markets
3. Transform : Doing radically new, disruptive stuff that changes markets and creates competitive advantage
Focus for IT Expenditure and Investment
Source: A Simple Framework to Translate IT Benefits into Business Value Impact, R. Hunter et al, Gartner Research
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Transformation
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80%Keeping
Lights
On
20%Grow and Transform
50%Keeping
Lights
On
50%Grow and Transform
Operational
Excellence
Innovation
The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell
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Doing new
things is
RISKY
17The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell
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What do we want in a leader?
The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 18
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19The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell
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Incompetence irritates me
Overconfidence frightens me
Malcolm GladwellExpert Failure
The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell 20
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Humility is demonstrated by
a willingness to learn
21The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell
What is the opposite
of overconfidence?
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Simple
•Standard formula is essential
•Strict adherence to formula produces quality
results every time
•No particular expertise required
Baking a cake
Complicated
•Standard formulae are necessary, clarity of
cause and effect
•Expertise also important since many variables
and interdependencies
•High degree of outcome certainty, diagnosis and
prognosis are often accurate
Sending a rocket
to the moon
Complex
•Systems have many variables and interactions
so expertise is necessary but not sufficient
•Multivariate causes, gradual onset of problems
over time, diagnosis and prognosis are often
obscure
•Systems are adaptive, respond to change in
unpredictable ways, so rational assumptions do
not always apply
Raising a child
Source: Study by the Canadian Healthcare SystemBrenda Zimmerman, York UniversitySholom Glouberman, University of Toronto
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Simple
•Standard formula is essential
•Strict adherence to formula produces quality
results every time
•No particular expertise required
Baking a cake
Complicated
•Standard formulae are necessary, clarity of
cause and effect
•Expertise also important since many variables
and interdependencies
•High degree of outcome certainty, diagnosis and
prognosis are often accurate
Sending a rocket
to the moon
Complex
•Systems have many variables and interactions
so expertise is necessary but not sufficient
•Multivariate causes, gradual onset of problems
over time, diagnosis and prognosis are often
obscure
•Systems are adaptive, respond to change in
unpredictable ways, so rational assumptions do
not always apply
Raising a childBehavioral
Deterministic(rules-based)
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Implementation Thinking
Source: Mike Rother, Toyota Kata 24
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Source: Mike Rother, Toyota Kata 25
"Having an implementation orientation actually impedes our organization's progress and the development of people's capabilities.
The way from where we are to where we want to be next is a gray zone full of unforseeable obstacles, problems and issues that we can only discover along the way. The best we can do is to know the approach, the means, we can utilize for dealing with the unclear path to a new desired condition [the lean problem solving approach] not what the content and steps of our actions- the solutions - will be.
If someone claims certainty about the steps that will be implemented to reach the desired destination,
that should be a red flag to us.“
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Transformative Thinking
Source: Mike Rother, Toyota Kata 26
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27
80%Keeping
Lights
On
20%Grow and Transform
50%Keeping
Lights
On
50%Grow and Transform
Operational
Excellence
Innovation
What obstacles are in our pathto Lean IT transformation?
The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell
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The “G Word”
Source: Dreamworks 28
GovernanceRequiring an “accurate” estimate at the beginning of a project can dramatically increase project risk instead of decrease it as intended.
Scott Ambler and Per Kroll, IBM
By attempting to artificially create certainty we create more risk . . .
These projects that are “designed to fail”
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• Slow and bureaucratic
• Disconnected from the dynamic world, resisting rapid change, stifling creativity, innovation, and agility
• Forces change and decision making into slow periodic cycles, often tied to the annual budget
• Emphasizes resource utilization and promotes large projects that attract the most attention during the funding process
• It is often a “game” to be played, to advance special interests, encouraging a project “black market”
• Tactical tradeoff decisions and short-term interventions increase instability and variation in the long run
What’s Wrong with Traditional IT Governance?
29The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell
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• Iteration speed• Small batch size• Level schedule• Quality: test early and often • Engagement• Adaptive learning
Agile and LeanDrinking from the same source
30The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell
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“A Lean organization optimizes the whole value stream, from the time it receives an order to address a customer need until software is deployed and the need is addressed. If an organization focuses on optimizing something less than the entire value stream, we can just about guarantee that the overall value stream will suffer.”
Mary and Tom Poppendieck
Implementing Lean Software Development
How can Lean Thinking add value?
31The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell
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“Although Scrum may help teams isolate themselves from dysfunction in the organization (which can lead to limited improvement), it is better for them to help the organization become more functional.”
Shalloway, Beaver & Trott
Lean-Agile Software Development
How can Lean Thinking add value?
32The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell
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The division between projects and operations has become a serious constraint both on the ability of businesses to get new functionality to market faster and, ironically, on the ability of IT to maintain stable, highly available, high-quality systems and services.
Jez Humble and Joanne MoleskyWhy Enterprises Must Adopt DevOps to Enable Continuous Delivery
How can Lean Thinking add value?
33The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell
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Continuous Concept to Delivery Lifecycle
Pull and Flow
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ContinuousInnovation
The Myth of Certainty, Steve Bell
Continuous Improvement
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Thank you to the entire
Lean IT Community!